编辑 | 虞尔湖 出品 | 潮起网「智能之光」 悬在AI产业头顶的"达摩克利斯之剑"，终于在12月的资本市场落下了。 12月11日，甲骨文股价单日重挫13%，市值蒸发约千亿元人民币。这一记重锤不仅砸向自身，更引发连锁反应：英伟达、AMD、美光科技等AI核心概念股 集体承压，跌幅在3.1%到4.2%之间，并最终拖累纳斯达克指数跌至一周以来的最低点。 图源：路透社 资本闭环下的虚火与隐忧 AI产业的资本狂热，不断将头部企业乃至初创企业的估值推向新高度。英伟达成为全球首家市值突破5万亿美元的公司，Open AI的估值从2024年10月的 1570亿美元，一路暴涨至2025年10月的5000亿美元——相当于每月增长290亿美元，每天新增近10亿美元。Anthropic、Mercor等参与者同样增长迅猛，前者 半年内估值从615亿美元翻升至1830亿美元，后者在8个月内从20亿美元攀升至100亿美元。 | Date | Approx. Valuation (USD, billions) | Context | | --- | --- | --- | | July 2019 | 1 | Microsoft partner ...

铜周报 2025 年 12 月 15 日 连续降息存疑，铜价冲高回落 核心观点及策略 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 李婷 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 何天 从业资格号：F03120615 投资咨询号：Z0022965 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 10 注: (1) LME 为 3 月期价格；上海 SHFE 为 3 月期货价格； (2) 涨跌= 周五收盘价－上周五收盘价； (3) 涨跌幅=（周五收盘价-上周五收盘价）/ 上周五收盘价*100 ⚫ 上周铜价冲高回落，主因部分鹰派官员表达反对连续降息 的立场，CME观察工具显示1月延续降息概率偏低，日央行 加息预期有所上行或影响全球外汇套利市场格局，此外， 市场担忧AI泡沫破裂的风险令资产遭到抛售并蔓延至金 属市场；国内方面，中央经济工作会 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【国债周报（TL&T&TF&TS)】 超长端承压走弱 樊梦真 从业资格证号：F3035483 投资咨询证号 ：Z0014706 报告日期：2025-11-24 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点 周度行情一览 上周国债期货市场各期限小幅分化，超长端运行中枢下移，尤其是后半周出现了明显的调整，其余各期限横盘运行，上下波动幅度较为有限。复盘来看，周内对 于债期自身影响的增量消息较为有限，更多是国内外金融市场和大类资产的共振主导了本周的走势。首先，BBG报道了国内对于房地产市场的刺激政策，即中国 正考虑出台新的措施扭转房地产疲软的状况，具体包括在全国范围内向新购房者提供抵押贷款补贴，提高抵押贷款借款人的所得税退税以降低其购房成本，受此 消息影响，房地产板块拉涨，黑色小幅走强。其次，市场目光聚焦在海外，一方面是英伟达财报公布后，虽业绩表现超出市场预期，但对其业绩增长的持续性存 疑，叠加科技板块领涨美股，AI泡沫破裂的担忧加剧，另一方面是美国政府开门后12月非农就业数据公布 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent actions of the central bank regarding bond purchases and their impact on the market, highlighting a cautious approach to monetary policy amid fluctuating market conditions [3][5][6]. Group 1: Central Bank Actions - The central bank conducted a 200 billion yuan bond purchase in October, which was lower than market expectations, leading to a slight increase in interest rates before stabilizing [5][6]. - A total of 1175 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos was executed, with a net withdrawal of 3578 billion yuan due to the maturity of 4753 billion yuan in reverse repos [3]. - The central bank plans to conduct a 7000 billion yuan buyout reverse repo operation with a 3-month term, indicating a strategy to manage liquidity in the market [3]. Group 2: Market Reactions - The stock market experienced a slight decline, attributed to the lower-than-expected bond purchase by the central bank, which caused temporary fluctuations in interest rates [5][6]. - Global stock markets showed poor performance, influenced by concerns over potential AI bubble bursts and other macroeconomic factors, while the domestic banking sector remained relatively stable [6]. - The bond market reacted to the central bank's actions, with the 10-year government bond yield fluctuating around 1.79% following the announcement of the bond purchase [5][6]. Group 3: Interest Rate Trends - The weighted average rates for various repo transactions remained stable, with R001 at 1.36% and R007 at 1.46%, indicating a balanced liquidity environment [4]. - The interest rates for government bonds showed slight variations, with the 10-year bond yield at 1.7900% and other maturities reflecting minor changes [8]. - The overall trend in interest rates suggests a cautious approach by the central bank to maintain stability in the financial system while addressing liquidity needs [3][4].

Core Insights - The trade tensions between the United States and China have escalated, leading to significant market volatility and a potential shift in investor focus towards UK ETFs as a safer investment option [1][3][10] Trade Tensions and Market Impact - President Trump's threat to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese goods has reignited fears of a trade war, resulting in a $2 trillion loss in equity values in a single trading day [4][5] - The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite experienced significant declines, with the S&P 500 dropping over 2.7% and Nasdaq falling 3.6% [5] - The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) spiked to 21.66, reflecting heightened investor anxiety, although it later decreased to 19.37, remaining elevated compared to earlier levels [8] Economic Landscape and ETF Opportunities - The U.S. economic environment is further complicated by a government shutdown, recession fears, and concerns over a potential AI bubble burst, making U.S.-heavy ETFs vulnerable [9] - UK ETFs are currently seen as more stable, with attractive valuations compared to U.S. counterparts, such as the iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWU) trading at a price-to-earnings ratio of 18.84 versus the iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (IVV) at 30.01 [10] - The EWU also offers a higher dividend yield of 3.68% compared to IVV's 1.18%, presenting a potential value opportunity for investors [10] UK ETFs to Consider - **iShares MSCI United Kingdom ETF (EWU)**: Offers exposure to large and mid-sized UK companies, with top holdings including AstraZeneca (9.14%), HSBC (8.00%), and Shell (7.33%). It has gained 13.4% over the past year with fees of 50 basis points [13] - **Franklin FTSE United Kingdom ETF (FLGB)**: Focuses on UK large and mid-cap companies, with top holdings also including AstraZeneca (8.48%), HSBC (7.67%), and Shell (7.14%). It has gained 13.4% over the past year with fees of 9 basis points [14] - **First Trust United Kingdom AlphaDEX Fund (FKU)**: Provides exposure to select stocks from the Nasdaq United Kingdom Index, with top holdings including International Consolidated Airlines Group (2.52%) and Rio Tinto (2.45%). It has gained 17% over the past year with fees of 80 basis points [15]