Americas Energy & Transition Bernstein Uranium/Nuclear: A reasonable DCF underwrites Cameco's value 5 February 2026 Minnie Xu +1 917 344 8574 minnie.xu@bernsteinsg.com Bob Brackett, Ph.D. +1 917 344 8422 bob.brackett@bernsteinsg.com Anshika Bajpai +1 917 344 8306 anshika.bajpai@bernsteinsg.com Andrianto Guntoro +44 20 7676 6825 andrianto.guntoro@bernsteinsg.com We initiated on Cameco and Kazatomprom in 2025 and continue to believe that we are early in a nuclear power renaissance that provides clean, green b ...

Core Insights - Cameco Corporation (CCJ) has experienced a significant stock surge of 98.7% over the past year, outperforming the Zacks Mining - Miscellaneous industry growth of 41% and the Basic Materials sector's 32.8% increase, while the S&P 500 rose by 18.9% [1][4]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Cameco reported total revenues of CAD 615 million ($446 million), a decline of 14.7% year-over-year, attributed to lower volumes across both uranium and fuel services segments [7]. - The company achieved a 2% increase in uranium production to 4.4 million pounds, with production from Cigar Lake rising by 47% year-over-year to 2.2 million pounds, while production from McArthur River/Key Lake fell by 21% to 2.2 million pounds [7]. - Uranium sales volume decreased by 16% year-over-year to 6.1 million pounds, leading to a 12.8% drop in uranium revenues to CAD 523 million ($379 million) despite a 4% increase in average realized prices [8]. - Fuel services production fell by 3% to 3.1 million kgUs, with sales volume plunging 46% to 1.9 million kgUs, resulting in a 24% revenue drop to CAD 91 million ($66 million) [9]. - Adjusted earnings rose by 17% year-over-year to five cents per share in Q3 [9]. Production Outlook - Cameco has narrowed its 2025 uranium deliveries target to 32-34 million pounds from a previous range of 31-34 million pounds, projecting uranium revenues of CAD 2.8-3.0 billion based on an average realized price of $87.00 per pound [15]. - The company maintains its expected share of production from the Cigar Lake mine at 9.8 million pounds, while the McArthur River mine's production outlook has been revised to 9.8-10.5 million pounds due to development delays [13][14]. Valuation and Market Position - CCJ's stock is currently trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 17.92, significantly higher than the industry average of 1.44, indicating a stretched valuation [20]. - Despite this premium valuation, Cameco's stock is trading lower than Energy Fuels, which has a forward price-to-sales ratio of 41.11, while Centrus Energy is at 11.13 [21]. Strategic Partnerships and Future Growth - Cameco is well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for nuclear energy, supported by geopolitical events and energy security concerns [22]. - The company is extending the mine life of Cigar Lake to 2036 and ramping up output at McArthur River/Key Lake towards its licensed annual capacity of 25 million pounds [23]. - A strategic partnership with Brookfield and the U.S. government aims to accelerate the deployment of nuclear reactor technologies, with an aggregate investment of at least $80 billion expected to create significant growth opportunities [25].

Core Viewpoint - Cameco (CCJ) remains fundamentally strong, supported by the long-term outlook for uranium and strategic investments in increasing production, positioning the company to benefit from the growing demand for clean energy solutions [1][20]. Financial Performance - Cameco's stock is trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 15.82, significantly higher than the Zacks Mining - Miscellaneous industry's 1.44, indicating an expensive valuation [1]. - In Q3 2025, Cameco reported total revenues of CAD 615 million ($446 million), a decrease of 14.7% year over year, with uranium revenues down 12.8% to CAD 523 million ($379 million) due to a 16% decline in sales volume [7][9]. - Adjusted earnings rose 17% year over year to five cents per share in Q3 2025 [9]. - The company has raised its 2025 uranium delivery target to 32-34 million pounds, with revenue guidance up to CAD 3.55 billion [5][14]. Production and Operations - Cameco's uranium production increased by 2% to 4.4 million pounds, with production from Cigar Lake up 47% year over year to 2.2 million pounds, while production from McArthur River/Key Lake decreased by 21% [8][11]. - The company plans to produce between 13 million and 14 million kgU in its fuel services segment for 2025, projecting fuel services revenues of $500-$550 million [15]. Market Position and Outlook - Cameco has gained 76.9% year to date, outperforming the industry growth of 31.6%, but lagging behind peers Energy Fuels and Uranium Energy, which gained 202% and 104%, respectively [4]. - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the global focus on nuclear energy, with investments aimed at extending Cigar Lake's mine life to 2036 and ramping up McArthur River/Key Lake output [20][21]. - Geopolitical events and rising demand for low-carbon energy are creating favorable conditions for the nuclear power industry, enhancing Cameco's strategic importance [21]. Debt and Valuation - As of Q3 2025, Cameco had C$779 million ($565 million) in cash and cash equivalents and C$1 billion ($725 million) in long-term debt, with a total debt to total capital ratio of 0.13 [19]. - Despite the premium valuation, the consensus estimate for Cameco's earnings for fiscal 2025 indicates year-over-year growth of 96% [16][18].

Core Insights - Cameco (CCJ) reported a 14.7% year-over-year decline in revenues for Q3 2025, while adjusted earnings per share increased by 17% to CAD 0.07, missing the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 75% [1][10]. Revenue Performance - Total revenues fell to CAD 615 million ($446 million) due to lower uranium and fuel sales [4][10]. - Uranium revenues decreased by 12.8% to CAD 523 million ($379 million), with a 16% drop in sales volume to 6.1 million pounds, partially offset by a 4% increase in the average realized price [3][4]. - Fuel services revenues dropped 24% to CAD 91 million (CAD 66 million), driven by a 46% decline in sales volume, despite a 42% increase in average realized prices [4]. Production and Costs - Uranium production increased by 2% to 4.4 million pounds, with Cigar Lake production up 47% to 2.2 million pounds, while McArthur River/Key Lake production fell 21% to 2.2 million pounds [2]. - Total cost of sales decreased by 20% to approximately CAD 385 million ($279 million), with uranium segment costs down 19% and fuel services costs down 24% [5]. Future Outlook - Cameco maintained its 2025 production guidance, expecting 9.8–10.5 million pounds from McArthur River and 9.8 million pounds from Cigar Lake, totaling 19.6-20.3 million pounds [8]. - The company revised its full-year target for uranium deliveries to 32–34 million pounds, up from 31-34 million pounds [9][11]. - Projected uranium revenues for 2025 are CAD 2.8–3.0 billion, with fuel services revenues expected at $500-$550 million [11]. Financial Position - At the end of Q3, Cameco had CAD 779 million ($565 million) in cash and cash equivalents, CAD 1 billion ($725 million) in long-term debt, and a $1 billion ($725 million) undrawn revolving credit facility [7]. Market Position and Valuation - Cameco's shares have gained 17.3% over the past three months, outperforming the industry but lagging behind peers like Energy Fuels, which gained 58.3% [18]. - The stock is trading at a forward price-to-sales ratio of 15.87, significantly higher than the industry's 1.45, indicating a stretched valuation [19]. Strategic Initiatives - The company is investing in increasing production capacity and extending the mine life at Cigar Lake to 2036, while also increasing production at McArthur River and Key Lake [22]. - Geopolitical events and rising low-carbon energy demand are expected to benefit the nuclear power industry, positioning Cameco favorably in the long term [22].