We came across a bullish thesis on Energy Fuels Inc. on Arya’s Substack by Arya. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on UUUU. Energy Fuels Inc.'s share was trading at $24.16 as of January 27th. UUUU’s forward P/E was 212.77 according to Yahoo Finance. Uranium Energy (UEC) Drops as Traders Cash in on Gains nuclear-2082637_1280 Energy Fuels Inc. (UUUU) is a leading U.S. uranium producer and emerging rare earth elements (REE) supplier, uniquely positioned to benefit from the global nuclear ...

证券研究报告|行业研究报告 2025Q4，公司单位生产成本为 39.7 美元/磅，环比下降 5%，同比下降 6%。 [Table_Date] 2026 年 1 月 27 日 [Table_Title] LHM 项目 2025Q4 U3O8 产销量分别环比增长 15%/168%至 123/143 万磅，平均实现价格环比上 涨 7%至 71.8 美元/磅 [Table_Title2] 有色金属-海外季报 [Table_Summary] 季报重点内容: ►公司 2025Q4 生产经营情况 2025Q4，公司铀矿生产了创纪录的 123 万磅 U₃ O₈ ，环 比增长 15%，同比增长 93%。本季度 U₃ O₈ 产量高于预期主 要系本季度破碎机处理量为 121 万吨，平均矿石品位为 524ppm，表明送入选矿厂的矿石品位较高。平均回收率为 91%。 2025Q4，公司售出 143 万磅 U₃ O₈ ，环比增长 168%，同 比增长 186%。 2025Q4，公司平均实现价格为 71.8 美元/磅，环比上涨 7%，同比上涨 7%。 ►采矿 本季度，LHM 的采矿活动持续加速，钻孔、爆破和装卸 运输作业主要集中在 G 和 ...

Core Viewpoint - Premier American Uranium Inc. has filed a Technical Report that includes a Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) and an updated Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) for the Cebolleta Uranium Project, indicating potential for a low-CAPEX, long-life uranium operation with strong baseline economics and enhancement opportunities [1][2]. Group 1: Technical Report and Economic Assessment - The Technical Report was prepared by SLR International Corporation, adhering to NI 43-101 standards, and is available on SEDAR+ [2]. - The PEA suggests an average annual production of approximately 1.4 million pounds U₃O₈, with total production of 18.1 million pounds over a 13-year mine life [6]. - After-tax NPV (8%) is estimated at US$83.9 million, with an IRR of 17.7% and life-of-mine free cash flow of US$287 million [6]. - Direct CAPEX is projected at US$64.2 million, with average operating costs of US$41.60 per pound U₃O₈ recovered [6]. Group 2: Sensitivity and Upside Potential - The project shows sensitivity to uranium prices, with NPV increasing to US$154 million at US$100/lb, US$325 million at US$125/lb, and US$488 million at US$150/lb [6]. - Improved metallurgical recoveries could enhance project economics significantly, potentially increasing the base case after-tax NPV by approximately 90% to US$159 million with a 90% recovery rate [6]. Group 3: Mineral Resource Estimate - The updated MRE indicates an indicated resource of 20.3 million pounds eU₃O₈, a 9% increase from the previous report, and an inferred resource of 7.0 million pounds eU₃O₈, representing a 43% increase [6]. Group 4: Project Location and Strategic Importance - The Cebolleta Uranium Project is located in New Mexico, a premier uranium district in the U.S., providing strategic advantages such as proximity to utilities and existing processing facilities [8]. - Premier American Uranium is focused on consolidating and developing uranium projects across the U.S. to enhance domestic energy security and support the transition to clean energy [12].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a "Buy" rating for the industry, predicting that the industry index will outperform the Shanghai Composite Index by 10% or more during the specified period [6]. Core Insights - The company sold 240,000 pounds of U₃O₈ in Q3 2025, with an average spot price of approximately $74.66 per pound, leading to total revenue of $17.71 million, a 338% year-over-year increase [2][22]. - The company expects to achieve an annual U₃O₈ production of approximately 1 million pounds in 2025, with Q4 production expected to contribute significantly to this target [9][10]. - The average realized price for U₃O₈ in Q3 2025 was $72.38 per pound, with a gross margin of 26% [3][22]. - The company has a total uranium inventory of 2.125 million pounds as of September 30, 2025, which includes 485,000 pounds of finished U₃O₈ [4]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in cash profits due to lower mining costs and expects gross margins to continue to grow through 2026 [5][13]. Summary by Sections Uranium Business - **Production**: In Q3 2025, the company mined approximately 465,000 pounds of uranium ore, with a total uranium content of about 1.245 million pounds U₃O₈ as of September 30, 2025 [1]. - **Sales**: The company sold 240,000 pounds of U₃O₈ in Q3 2025, with a total revenue of $17.71 million [2][22]. - **Pricing**: The weighted average realized price was $72.38 per pound, with a gross margin of 26% [3]. - **Inventory**: The total uranium inventory was 2.125 million pounds, with an increase due to production from various mines [4]. - **Cost**: The average cost of finished U₃O₈ inventory was approximately $53 per pound, reflecting the company's efforts to improve production efficiency [7]. - **Guidance**: The company expects to mine between 5.5 million to 8 million tons of ore in 2025, containing approximately 875,000 to 1,435,000 pounds of U₃O₈ [8]. Rare Earth Business - **Heavy Rare Earth**: The company successfully produced 99.9% pure dysprosium oxide, exceeding commercial specifications [15]. - **Price Trends**: The price of praseodymium-neodymium (NdPr) increased by approximately 25% from June 30, 2025, to September 30, 2025 [17]. - **Project Development**: The company is advancing the Donald project, which is expected to produce approximately 7,200 tons of rare earth oxides annually [18]. Financial Performance - **Revenue Growth**: The company reported total revenues of $17.71 million in Q3 2025, a significant increase compared to the previous year [22]. - **Net Loss**: The net loss for Q3 2025 was $16.7 million, an improvement from the previous quarter [22]. - **Liquidity Position**: As of September 30, 2025, the company had $298.5 million in working capital, positioning it favorably for project advancement [24].

Core Insights - Vanguard Mining Corp. has received its Environmental License from the Ministry of Environment and Sustainable Development (MADES) for the Yuty Prometeo Uranium Project in Paraguay, marking a significant step in the regulatory process for exploration and development [1][2][3] Company Overview - Vanguard Mining Corp. is focused on the discovery and development of high-value strategic minerals, particularly uranium, in the United States and Paraguay [17] - The company aims to build a strong uranium portfolio in South America, leveraging modern exploration techniques in a historically prospective district [3] Project Details - The Yuty Prometeo Uranium Project encompasses approximately 90,000 hectares (222,395 acres) in the Paraná Basin, a region recognized for its uranium potential [8][10] - The project includes four concessions: three San Jose concessions and one Prometeo concession, with the Prometeo Concession directly adjacent to Uranium Energy Corp.'s Yuty Project, which has an indicated resource of 8.96 million pounds of U₃O₈ [8][11] - Historical drilling on the Prometeo block has shown uranium values ranging from 0.05% to 0.10% U₃O₈, indicating potential for further exploration [11] Regulatory Milestones - Securing the MADES prospection permit is a key milestone that de-risks the path toward full exploration and development authorization for the Yuty Prometeo Project [2][3] - The Paraguayan government is recognized for its political stability and investor-friendly regulatory environment, making it an attractive jurisdiction for mining companies [16] Exploration Activities - The company's technical advisors recently visited the Vice Ministry of Mines and Energy (VMME) core shed in Asunción to review core samples from the project, preparing for upcoming exploration activities [3]

Core Viewpoint - Premier American Uranium Inc. has released a Preliminary Economic Assessment (PEA) for the Cebolleta Uranium Project, indicating a potential for significant uranium production and strong economic returns, particularly with rising uranium prices [1][2][3] Economic Highlights - The base case mining concept shows an average production of 1.4 million pounds (Mlb) U₃O₈ annually, with a total output of 18.1 Mlb over a 13-year mine life [2][3] - The after-tax net present value (NPV) at an 8% discount rate is estimated at US$83.9 million, with a pre-tax NPV of US$106 million [2][3] - The after-tax internal rate of return (IRR) is projected at 17.7% [2] - Total pre-production costs are estimated at US$64.2 million for direct capital expenditures and US$19.3 million for indirect costs, with a contingency of US$29.2 million [2] - Life of Mine (LOM) after-tax free cash flow is projected at US$287 million, with operating cash flow of US$496 million [2] Mineral Resource Estimate (MRE) - The updated MRE indicates an increase in Indicated Mineral Resources by 1.7 Mlb eU3O8 (+9%) to 20.3 Mlb eU3O8 and an increase in Inferred Mineral Resources by 2.2 Mlb eU3O8 (+45%) to 7.0 Mlb eU3O8 [1][2][3] - Cebolleta is positioned as one of the largest undeveloped uranium deposits in the western United States [1][3] Sensitivity Analysis - The project shows strong leverage to uranium prices, with a sensitivity analysis indicating that an increase to US$100/lb U₃O₈ raises the after-tax NPV (8%) to US$154 million, and to US$125/lb U₃O₈ raises it to US$325 million [4][5] - A 12% increase in metallurgical recovery from 80% to 90% could increase the after-tax NPV (8%) by approximately 90% to US$159 million [5] Project Infrastructure and Processing - The project will utilize a heap leach strategy for uranium extraction, with a focus on low capital expenditures and operational costs [1][2][3] - The processing design anticipates an average head grade of 0.11% U₃O₈, with a nominal leach recovery assumed at 80% [20][22] - The project infrastructure includes a heap leach pad and a resin-in-column processing plant, designed to minimize environmental impact [26][27] Future Recommendations - The PEA recommends a multi-phase plan to further de-risk and refine project scope, including advanced metallurgical test work and additional drilling for confirmation [31] - The Technical Report detailing the PEA and MRE will be filed within 45 days of the announcement [32]

Investment Rating - The report gives a "Recommended" rating for the industry [4] Core Insights - In Q3 2025, the company produced a record 1,066,496 pounds of U₃O₈, reflecting a 7% increase quarter-on-quarter and a 67% increase year-on-year, with an average recovery rate of 86% [1][2] - The company sold 533,789 pounds of U₃O₈ in Q3 2025, a decrease of 25% quarter-on-quarter and 14% year-on-year, primarily due to shipment delays [1] - The average realized price for U₃O₈ in Q3 2025 was $67.4 per pound, up 21% from the previous quarter but down 4% year-on-year [1][2] - The company signed a new uranium sales agreement, bringing the total to 14 agreements with global clients in the US, Europe, and Asia [2] - The company received a prepayment of $29.7 million, which will be recognized in Q4 2025 [2] Production and Mining Activities - Mining activities remained active, with total mined volume reaching 5.27 million tons, a 63% increase from the previous quarter [3] - The company is focusing on waste removal in the G pit area to ensure increased ore production in the first half of 2026 [5] - The average ore feed grade was stable at 477 ppm U₃O₈, with the plant recovery rate at 86% [3][9] Financial Performance - The company completed a fully underwritten equity financing, raising approximately AUD 300 million, which will enhance balance sheet flexibility [6][7] - As of September 30, 2025, the company held $269.4 million in unrestricted cash and investments, an increase of $180.4 million from the previous quarter [7] - The unit production cost in Q3 2025 was $41.6 per pound, an 11% increase quarter-on-quarter but a 1% decrease year-on-year [2][9]

Financial Highlights - UEC has a strong balance sheet with $321 million in cash, inventory, and equities at market price as of July 31, 2025[15] - UEC reported $66.8 million in revenue[15] - UEC holds 1.4 million pounds of U₃O₈ in inventory valued at $96.6 million at market prices, excluding approximately 130,000 pounds of initial Wyoming production[15] - UEC anticipates expanding its U S warehoused inventory by another 300,000 pounds through December 2025 purchase contracts at $3705 /lb, in addition to uranium from operations[15] Operational Achievements - UEC produced approximately 130,000 pounds of precipitated uranium and dried and drummed U₃O₈ in Wyoming[10, 28] - The total cost per pound of U₃O₈ was $3641, including a cash cost per pound of $2763 and a non-cash cost per pound of $878, based on 26,421 pounds of dried and drummed U₃O₈ at the end of fiscal 2025[10, 30] - The Burke Hollow ISR project is 90% complete, targeting November 2025 completion, with 615 million lbs Measured and Indicated Resources, and 488 million lbs Inferred resources[10, 35] Resource Base and Growth - UEC has a total resource base of 2301 million lbs U3O8 as Measured & Indicated, 1000 million lbs U3O8 as Inferred, and 175 million lbs Historical[17] - UEC's acquisition of Rio Tinto's Sweetwater Complex adds 41 million pounds U3O8 per year of licensed production capacity and 175 million pounds of historic resources[10, 39] - The Roughrider project has a Post Tax NPV8 of $946 million, an IRR of 40%, and a payback of 14 years, with LOM avg production of 68 M lbs U3O8/yr[23, 44] Strategic Initiatives - UEC launched UR&C with the goal of becoming the only vertically integrated U S company with uranium mining, processing, and planned refining and conversion capabilities[10]

Core Insights - IsoEnergy Ltd. and Purepoint Uranium Group Inc. announced partial assay results from their joint venture Dorado Project, highlighting significant uranium grades from drill hole PG25-07A, which returned 2.1 metres grading 1.6% U₃O₈, including 0.4 metres at 8.1% U₃O₈ [1][2] Summary by Sections Assay Results - Drill hole PG25-07A reported 2.1 metres at 1.6% U₃O₈, with notable intervals including 0.4 metres at 8.1% U₃O₈ and an additional 4.9 metres at 0.52% U₃O₈, marking the most significant assay intervals from the Nova discovery zone [1][4] - The assay results reinforce the strength of the newly discovered system, providing a solid foundation for further exploration [2] Drilling Program Status - The summer drill program was curtailed due to regional wildfires, which limited helicopter access and created hazardous conditions, leading to the deferral of drilling at the nearby Celeste project [3] - A total of 5,030 metres were drilled across 11 holes before the program was cut short, with a planned total of 5,400 metres [5] Future Plans - Follow-up drilling programs are planned for early 2026, pending final assays and geological interpretations, focusing on expanding the Nova discovery and testing priority corridors across the Dorado Project [8] - The companies are awaiting full geochemical assays and structural interpretations to support detailed planning for future drilling [8] Project Overview - The Dorado Project is a 50/50 joint venture between IsoEnergy and Purepoint, covering over 98,000 hectares in the Athabasca Basin, known for its favorable geology for uranium deposition [13] - Recent drilling has confirmed the continuity of fertile graphitic rock packages, indicating potential for additional high-grade discoveries in the region [14]

Industry Overview - A bull market for uranium is developing, with prices expected to reach $100 per pound by 2026, a level not seen since the mid-2000s [1][2] - Supply remains tight due to years of underinvestment in mining, while demand is increasing from China and new nuclear technologies [2][4] Demand Drivers - Demand from China is significant as the country expands its nuclear fleet, alongside the rise of small modular reactors (SMRs) [2][3] - SMRs could account for up to 20% of total uranium demand by 2040, indicating a structural shift in the market [3] - The current high costs of enrichment lead to increased use of raw uranium, creating additional buying pressure for U₃O₈ [4] Companies to Watch - Global Atomic Corporation is nearing uranium production at its Dasa Project in Niger, with a feasibility study projecting total production of 68.1 million pounds of U₃O₈ over 23.75 years [5] - Standard Uranium Ltd is advancing uranium targets in the Athabasca Basin and is starting a drill program at its Davidson River Project [6] - Cosa Resources is exploring underdeveloped uranium projects in the Athabasca Basin, focusing on drilling at the Murphy Lake North JV [7] - Pure Point Uranium is advancing its Athabasca Basin projects through joint ventures, with recent high-grade assay results from the Nova Discovery [8] - Fortune Bay Corp holds an optioned uranium portfolio in the Athabasca Basin, with drilling underway at The Woods Projects [9] - Baselode Energy Corp is advancing several uranium projects in the Athabasca Basin, including Hook and Aberdeen [10] - GoviEx Uranium Inc plans to change its name to Atomic Eagle and will focus on the Muntanga uranium project in Zambia [11] - Uranium American Resources Inc is acquiring uranium and vanadium assets in the western U.S., including the Marysvale asset [12] - Myriad Uranium holds a 75% interest in the Copper Mountain uranium project in Wyoming, which has known uranium deposits [13] - Mega Uranium is a diversified investment company focused on uranium assets, with a notable project in Australia [14]