, /PRNewswire/ -- GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index — a leading indicator tracking demand conditions, shortages, transportation costs, inventories, and backlogs based on a monthly survey of 27,000 businesses — was little changed in September (-0.38 vs -0.39 in August), indicating that global supply chains are operating below full capacity still. However, Chinese factories report a strong rise in purchasing, pushing global manufacturing procurement activity up at the fastest rate since mid-2022. Thi ...

Core Insights - The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index decreased to -0.39 in August from -0.35 in July, indicating rising spare capacity as global supply chain activity cooled [1][14] - North America showed strong supply chain activity, with companies stockpiling raw materials to mitigate tariff-related shortages, particularly in the US consumer goods sector [1][6] - In contrast, Asia's index fell to a three-month low, primarily due to weakened purchasing activity in China's consumer non-cyclicals sector, with Japan and Taiwan also experiencing declines [2][7] - Europe faced further deterioration, with Germany's basic materials sector struggling and UK manufacturing deepening its contraction, resulting in an index of -0.90, one of the steepest declines since 2024 [2][6] Regional Highlights - **North America**: Supply chains were nearly at full capacity as companies increased stock levels in response to recent orders and tariff concerns [6][7] - **Asia**: The index indicated rising spare capacity, with flat purchasing volumes in China, while South Korea, Indonesia, and India saw increased procurement activity [7] - **Europe**: The index continued to decline as factories reduced purchases of intermediate goods and destocked, highlighting the fragile nature of the region's industrial recovery [6][7] Expert Commentary - Michael DuVall, GEP's global head of supply chain strategy, noted that tariff uncertainty has become a structural reality, urging companies to invest in resilience, diversify suppliers, and enhance capabilities like demand sensing for better decision-making [3][6]

Core Insights - Global supply chain activity declined in July as U.S. manufacturers reduced purchases of materials and components after building inventories in June ahead of the end of the 'tariff pause' [1][2] - The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index fell to -0.35 from -0.17 in June, indicating increased spare capacity worldwide, primarily driven by the U.S. [2][6] - U.S. manufacturers are preparing for lower demand, as evidenced by a significant reduction in input purchases [3][6] Regional Key Findings - North America's index dropped to -0.33 from -0.06, reflecting a pullback in orders [2][6] - Asian factory purchasing activity remains slightly below trend, with notable weakness in Japan and South Korea, while Taiwan's factories experienced an accelerated downturn [7] - Europe's industrial recovery stalled, with the index declining to -0.30 from 0.01, highlighting the fragile nature of the recovery, particularly in Germany [7] Inventory and Labor Insights - Safety stockpiling has eased, suggesting limited concern over supply bottlenecks or price surges [8] - Staffing capacity and transportation costs remained stable, with no signs of inflationary pressure from these sources [8]

Core Insights - The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index increased to -0.17 in June 2025 from -0.46 in May, indicating a recovery in global supply chain activity despite ongoing tariffs [1] - European manufacturers returned to full capacity for the first time in over two years, driven by strong demand from US customers and a rebound in domestic and export demand, particularly in Germany [1][8] - North American manufacturers significantly increased their purchasing activity ahead of a potential end to the tariff pause, leading to a rise in the index to -0.06 from -0.24 [2][9] Demand Conditions - Global factory purchasing activity showed a robust upward trend in June, with North America experiencing the most significant increase [7][8] - The index for Asia rose to -0.27 from -0.40, indicating a pick-up in activity, although overall supply chains in Southeast Asia remain underutilized [9] Supply Chain Capacity - The index for Europe rose to 0.01 from -0.30, signaling full capacity utilization across European supply chains as the industrial sector recovers [9] - In the UK, the index improved to -0.41 from -0.97, indicating a reduction in slack but still reflecting underutilization [9] Inventory and Material Shortages - Reports of increased stockpiling due to price or supply concerns were at their highest in 2025, with businesses building safety buffers in warehouses [15] - The global item shortages indicator remains historically low, suggesting robust availability of materials [15] Labor and Transportation - Suppliers' workforce capacity is sufficient to handle current order loads, with stable reports of manufacturing backlogs due to staff shortages [15] - Global transportation costs aligned with long-term averages, and logistic cost pressures remained stable [15]

Core Insights - The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index increased to -0.17 in June 2025 from -0.46 in May, indicating a recovery in global supply chain activity despite ongoing tariffs [1] - European manufacturers returned to full capacity for the first time in over two years, driven by strong demand from US customers and a rebound in domestic and export demand, particularly in Germany [1][8] - North American manufacturers significantly increased their purchasing activity ahead of a potential end to the tariff pause, leading to a rise in the index to -0.06 from -0.24 [2][9] Demand Conditions - Global factory purchasing activity rose in June, marking the strongest demand in over a year, particularly driven by North America [7][8] - The index for Asia improved to -0.27 from -0.40, indicating a pick-up in activity, although overall supply chains in Southeast Asia remain underutilized [9] Supply Chain Capacity - The index for Europe rose to 0.01 from -0.30, signaling full capacity utilization across European supply chains as the industrial sector recovers [9] - In the UK, the index increased to -0.41 from -0.97, indicating improvement but still reflecting a significant level of slack in supply chains [9] Inventory and Material Shortages - There was a notable increase in stockpiling among businesses due to concerns over prices and supply, with the highest mentions of safety buffers in warehouses for 2025 [15] - The global item shortages indicator remains historically low, suggesting robust availability of materials [15] Labor and Transportation - Suppliers' workforce capacity is sufficient to handle current order loads, with stable reports of manufacturing backlogs due to staff shortages at historically typical levels [15] - Global transportation costs aligned with long-term averages in June, with logistic cost pressures remaining stable [15]

Core Insights - The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index fell to -0.46 in May from -0.39 in April, indicating increasing spare capacity in global supply chains due to tariffs and trade tensions [1][5][10] Group 1: Regional Analysis - Asia reported the greatest degree of spare capacity in 18 months, with raw material purchases declining for the second consecutive month, primarily driven by a decrease in Chinese factory demand [2][8][10] - North America's supply chains remain underutilized, particularly in Mexico and Canada, although U.S. manufacturers increased raw material purchases to bolster inventories against potential price hikes [3][9][10] - Europe's industrial sector showed signs of recovery, with activity levels stabilizing, particularly in Germany due to fiscal stimulus, while the U.K. faced significant underutilization in its manufacturing sector [4][10] Group 2: Supply Chain Metrics - Global demand for raw materials and components remained weak, marking the lowest level year-to-date, with procurement activity in Asia experiencing its sharpest decline in nearly 18 months [8][17] - The North American index improved to -0.24 from -0.34, reflecting a slight increase in purchasing volumes in the U.S., while the European index remained stable at -0.30, indicating underutilized capacity [10][17] - The U.K. index rose to -0.97 from -1.12, still indicating significant slack in supply chains and ongoing weakness in the manufacturing industry [10][17]