Gold has spent years being treated as insurance — useful, but rarely exciting. Danny Moses, best known as one of the traders featured in The Big Short, thinks that framing is already outdated. In an exclusive interview with Benzinga, Moses made a blunt call that cuts against market comfort: "Gold prices will double from here over the next few years."Track gold price via GLD ETF here.For Moses, this isn't a future pivot — it's a trend already in motion. "I think that already happened in 2025," he said, point ...

Core Viewpoint - The focus is on generating a 7%+ income yield through investments in energy stocks while minimizing principal loss risk [1]. Group 1: Investment Strategy - The investment strategy involves a portfolio of energy stocks, targeting both traditional and renewable energy sectors since 2010 [1]. - The leader of the investing group emphasizes generating income through energy stocks and closed-end funds (CEFs) while managing risk through options [1]. Group 2: Research and Analysis - The company provides in-depth research and analysis on both domestic and international energy companies, offering insights that are not widely available to the public [1]. - The focus is on international companies of all sizes that possess a competitive advantage and offer strong dividend yields [1].

Core Insights - The article discusses the concept of seasonality in financial markets, particularly focusing on gold futures and how specific time windows throughout the year are linked to recurring market behaviors [1][2]. Seasonal Analysis - Seasonality is more pronounced in the commodities market, with gold futures being a significant market, second only to equities [2]. - The analysis utilizes a proprietary software called Bias Finder to identify recurring patterns in historical data, focusing on long-term movements in gold futures from 2003 to the present [3][4]. Seasonal Windows - The year can be divided into four distinct seasonal phases for gold: 1. **Seasonal Window 1 (January – April)**: Historically the most bullish period, especially in January and February [11]. 2. **Seasonal Window 2 (April – July)**: Predominantly bearish trend from mid-April through early July [11]. 3. **Seasonal Window 3 (July – September)**: Another period of price growth continuing into September [11]. 4. **Seasonal Window 4 (September – December)**: Characterized by a lack of clear direction and broad trading range fluctuations [11]. Backtesting and Performance - A backtest for the years 2024-2025 shows that all four seasonal windows remain confirmed, despite a strong bullish bias in recent years [10]. - The overall performance of a trading strategy based on these seasonal insights has yielded a cumulative net profit exceeding $231,000 from 2003 to the present, with an average trade value of around $3,400 [15][16]. Performance Summary - The performance breakdown for seasonal windows indicates: - **Seasonal Window 1**: Net profit of $120,770 with 77.27% of trades profitable [19]. - **Seasonal Window 2**: Net profit of $8,610 with 47.83% of trades profitable [19]. - **Seasonal Window 3**: Net profit of $101,710 with 65.22% of trades profitable [19]. - **Complete Strategy**: Total net profit of $231,090 with 63.24% of trades profitable [20]. Comparison with Buy & Hold Strategy - The seasonal strategy, while not matching the absolute profit of a buy & hold approach, offers a more favorable risk profile, especially in real-money trading scenarios [25][26]. - The buy & hold strategy yields a net profit of $75,704.08 but incurs a significant drawdown of over $20,000, whereas the seasonal strategy with reinvestment achieves a profit of $41,374.02 with a drawdown of $8,658.80 [27]. Conclusion - The analysis concludes that trading based on gold seasonality can be profitable, even with simple rules, but emphasizes the need for ongoing evaluation as market behaviors evolve over time [30][31].

Core Insights - The US labor market shows signs of resilience, which has limited gains in gold prices despite ongoing uncertainties that continue to support the precious metal [1] Group 1 - The resilience in the US labor market is impacting gold price movements, indicating a complex relationship between economic indicators and commodity prices [1] - Persistent uncertainties in the market are providing steady support for gold, suggesting that while labor data may influence prices, underlying risks remain [1]

Market Sentiment and Performance - The market sentiment has shown signs of capitulation, with extreme pessimism registered in sentiment models, particularly indicated by a spike in inverse ETF volume, which is often associated with near-term market bottoms [2][3] - The S&P 500 index experienced a pullback of over 5%, while the median stock was down more than 16% from its 52-week high, suggesting a deeper correction than the index reflects [4] - The Russell 2000 index has gained 10.7% year-to-date, indicating a positive trend, although it is sensitive to interest rate movements [8][9] Economic Outlook - There is an expectation for new all-time highs in equities, with a strong end-of-year performance anticipated due to seasonal factors and improved earnings forecasts [1][5][6] - The current economic environment is seen as conducive for gold investments, with predictions of a strong year ahead for gold driven by potential changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership and policy direction [10][12] Investment Strategy - The Russell 2000 is viewed as a rates bet, requiring a favorable trajectory for interest rates and robust economic growth for continued performance [9] - Despite the positive outlook for equities, caution is advised regarding where to allocate investments, with gold being highlighted as a strong hedge in the current market environment [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - Gold price remains stable within a narrow range as bullish momentum is insufficient to challenge the support-turned-resistance level of $4,200, influenced by a stronger US dollar and expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve [1] Group 1 - The current gold price is unable to break through the $4,200 level, indicating a lack of bullish momentum in the market [1] - A stronger US dollar is contributing to the pressure on gold prices, making it more expensive for holders of other currencies [1] - Market expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve are impacting investor sentiment towards gold, as higher interest rates typically reduce the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [1]

Core Insights - Ray Dalio suggests that gold may become the hottest asset of 2025, surpassing AI stocks as a preferred investment choice due to shifting global dynamics and increasing risks associated with debt assets [1][5][6] Gold Performance - Gold has reached a record high of $4,000 per ounce, marking a 121% increase since the end of 2022 and over 50% growth in 2023, making it the best-performing asset class of 2025 [2] - The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) has returned over 50% to investors year-to-date, while AI stocks, tracked by the Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF (AIQ), have only returned just over 30% [4] Market Sentiment and Trends - Global gold ETFs have seen a significant increase, reaching $472 billion in assets under management in September, reflecting a 23% quarter-over-quarter growth [4] - Steady inflows into gold ETFs like GLD and iShares Gold Trust (IAU) indicate that Dalio's bullish outlook is resonating with investors seeking protection against market volatility [5] Investment Strategy Shift - Dalio emphasizes a fundamental shift from speculative, growth-focused assets to traditional stores of wealth like gold, which has no counterparty risk and performs well during monetary tightening and geopolitical tensions [6][7] - The current macroeconomic environment, characterized by high inflation and fears of currency debasement, is driving the rally in gold prices [6] New Narrative for Gold - Gold is evolving from being perceived as a "boring" hedge to a contrarian alternative to the AI-driven market, appealing to both portfolio managers and retail investors looking for tangible assets [7][8]

Core Insights - Gold has emerged as a leading asset, up almost 50% year-to-date, outperforming other commodities and financial instruments like Bitcoin and S&P futures [2][11] - The correlation between gold and the S&P 500 futures has shown interesting dynamics, with recent trends indicating a divergence in their movements [4][3] Gold Market Analysis - Gold's price action reflects broader economic concerns, including potential government shutdowns and economic instability [3] - A significant support level for gold is around 3965, with resistance noted at approximately 4020 and 4081 [6][5] - The RSI indicates a strong position for gold, despite being overbought, suggesting bullish momentum could continue [7][9] Trading Strategy - The GLD ETF, which tracks gold prices, is being utilized as a proxy for trading gold futures, allowing for lower capital outlay [11] - A proposed trade involves buying a 365 strike call and selling a 390 strike call, creating a bullish vertical spread with a potential maximum profit of $1,600 [14][13] - The break-even point for this trade is set at approximately 374, which is only about 1.7% above the current share price, indicating a favorable risk-reward setup [14][15]

ETF Market Overview - ETF 市场持续增长，预计将再次迎来万亿美元的流入年份 [2][3] - ETF 作为投资工具越来越受欢迎，财富分配渠道对 ETF 的接受度更高 [3][4] - 投资者寻求相对价值、多元化和投资组合优势 [6] Investor Sentiment & Flows - 投资者涌入黄金 ETF (GLD)，因金价创历史新高 [5] - 投资者对 Vanguard Total International ETF (VXUS) 和 Russell 1000 ETF (IWB) 表现出兴趣 [5] - 投资者正在寻找估值更具吸引力的其他市场和地区 [7] Investment Strategy & Recommendations - Cohen & Steers 认为全球经济良好，但投资者可能低估了通胀加速的风险 [9] - Cohen & Steers 建议配置能够应对通胀环境的资产，例如实物资产 [9] - Cohen & Steers 推出 Natural Resources Active ETF (CSNR)，专注于能源、农业、金属和矿业领域的股票 [9][12] - Natural Resources Active ETF (CSNR) 在经济表现强劲和通胀意外上涨时表现良好，具有很高的通胀 Beta [13] - Natural Resources 板块的估值相对于更广泛的股票市场而言非常便宜 [14]

Core Insights - Gold prices have reached a historic high, surpassing $3,500 per ounce, driven by investor demand amid inflation and economic uncertainty [1] - Despite its status as a safe-haven asset, gold has historically performed poorly in September, with a win rate of only 20% over the past decade [4][5] - The average return for gold in September over the last 20 years is -0.3%, indicating a trend of losses during this month [5] Historical Performance - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust has shown average September losses of 0.98% over the past 20 years, highlighting a challenging month for equities [3] - Gold's performance in September has been particularly weak, with eight out of the last ten years ending in losses, averaging a return of -1.81% [4][7] - In years where gold had double-digit gains through August, September has typically followed with an average loss of 1.73% [7][9] Recent Trends - As of August 2025, gold was up 31% year-to-date, influenced by central bank buying and strong ETF inflows, but this could lead to a potential downturn in September [8][11] - Historical data shows that after significant gains in August, gold often experiences a decline in September, with an average loss of -2.1% in such cases [10][12] - The performance of gold in September 2024 was an exception, with a gain of 5.2%, contrasting with the trend of losses in the preceding seven years [5][6]