Fresh signs of resilience in the US labor market have curbed GLD gold price gains even as the persistent uncertainties offer steady support to the precious metal. At the time of writing, the bullion w... ...

Market Sentiment and Performance - The market sentiment has shown signs of capitulation, with extreme pessimism registered in sentiment models, particularly indicated by a spike in inverse ETF volume, which is often associated with near-term market bottoms [2][3] - The S&P 500 index experienced a pullback of over 5%, while the median stock was down more than 16% from its 52-week high, suggesting a deeper correction than the index reflects [4] - The Russell 2000 index has gained 10.7% year-to-date, indicating a positive trend, although it is sensitive to interest rate movements [8][9] Economic Outlook - There is an expectation for new all-time highs in equities, with a strong end-of-year performance anticipated due to seasonal factors and improved earnings forecasts [1][5][6] - The current economic environment is seen as conducive for gold investments, with predictions of a strong year ahead for gold driven by potential changes in the Federal Reserve's leadership and policy direction [10][12] Investment Strategy - The Russell 2000 is viewed as a rates bet, requiring a favorable trajectory for interest rates and robust economic growth for continued performance [9] - Despite the positive outlook for equities, caution is advised regarding where to allocate investments, with gold being highlighted as a strong hedge in the current market environment [10][11]

Gold price has held in a tight range as the bulls lack enough momentum to retest the support-turn-resistance zone of $4,200. Notably, a stronger US dollar and expectations of a hawkish Federal Reserve... ...

Core Insights - Ray Dalio suggests that gold may become the hottest asset of 2025, surpassing AI stocks as a preferred investment choice due to shifting global dynamics and increasing risks associated with debt assets [1][5][6] Gold Performance - Gold has reached a record high of $4,000 per ounce, marking a 121% increase since the end of 2022 and over 50% growth in 2023, making it the best-performing asset class of 2025 [2] - The SPDR Gold Trust (GLD) has returned over 50% to investors year-to-date, while AI stocks, tracked by the Global X Artificial Intelligence & Technology ETF (AIQ), have only returned just over 30% [4] Market Sentiment and Trends - Global gold ETFs have seen a significant increase, reaching $472 billion in assets under management in September, reflecting a 23% quarter-over-quarter growth [4] - Steady inflows into gold ETFs like GLD and iShares Gold Trust (IAU) indicate that Dalio's bullish outlook is resonating with investors seeking protection against market volatility [5] Investment Strategy Shift - Dalio emphasizes a fundamental shift from speculative, growth-focused assets to traditional stores of wealth like gold, which has no counterparty risk and performs well during monetary tightening and geopolitical tensions [6][7] - The current macroeconomic environment, characterized by high inflation and fears of currency debasement, is driving the rally in gold prices [6] New Narrative for Gold - Gold is evolving from being perceived as a "boring" hedge to a contrarian alternative to the AI-driven market, appealing to both portfolio managers and retail investors looking for tangible assets [7][8]

Core Insights - Gold has emerged as a leading asset, up almost 50% year-to-date, outperforming other commodities and financial instruments like Bitcoin and S&P futures [2][11] - The correlation between gold and the S&P 500 futures has shown interesting dynamics, with recent trends indicating a divergence in their movements [4][3] Gold Market Analysis - Gold's price action reflects broader economic concerns, including potential government shutdowns and economic instability [3] - A significant support level for gold is around 3965, with resistance noted at approximately 4020 and 4081 [6][5] - The RSI indicates a strong position for gold, despite being overbought, suggesting bullish momentum could continue [7][9] Trading Strategy - The GLD ETF, which tracks gold prices, is being utilized as a proxy for trading gold futures, allowing for lower capital outlay [11] - A proposed trade involves buying a 365 strike call and selling a 390 strike call, creating a bullish vertical spread with a potential maximum profit of $1,600 [14][13] - The break-even point for this trade is set at approximately 374, which is only about 1.7% above the current share price, indicating a favorable risk-reward setup [14][15]

Welcome to CNBC. com. I'm Frank Holland, anchor of Worldwide Exchange.We're looking at the ETF market today. Net inflows for the year according to Vetify, have reached $795 billion. Joining me to discuss investor sentiment for ETFs and also uh to share a few top picks.I'm joined by Tyler Rosen, Coen and Steer, senior vice president, portfolio manager. Tyler, thank you for joining us. >> Thanks so much for having me this morning.I want to start off just talking about the fact that the ETF market net inflows ...

Core Insights - Gold prices have reached a historic high, surpassing $3,500 per ounce, driven by investor demand amid inflation and economic uncertainty [1] - Despite its status as a safe-haven asset, gold has historically performed poorly in September, with a win rate of only 20% over the past decade [4][5] - The average return for gold in September over the last 20 years is -0.3%, indicating a trend of losses during this month [5] Historical Performance - The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust has shown average September losses of 0.98% over the past 20 years, highlighting a challenging month for equities [3] - Gold's performance in September has been particularly weak, with eight out of the last ten years ending in losses, averaging a return of -1.81% [4][7] - In years where gold had double-digit gains through August, September has typically followed with an average loss of 1.73% [7][9] Recent Trends - As of August 2025, gold was up 31% year-to-date, influenced by central bank buying and strong ETF inflows, but this could lead to a potential downturn in September [8][11] - Historical data shows that after significant gains in August, gold often experiences a decline in September, with an average loss of -2.1% in such cases [10][12] - The performance of gold in September 2024 was an exception, with a gain of 5.2%, contrasting with the trend of losses in the preceding seven years [5][6]