12月29日，在近期贵金属市场的剧烈波动中，NCE平台持续关注黄金与白银价格的历史性突破。当前黄 金和白银双双刷新纪录，显示出资金情绪高度集中，尤其是白银短期内的涨幅已经远超其长期平均波动 区间，这种加速式上涨本身就值得市场参与者保持冷静审视。 从技术层面来看，白银价格走势已明显呈现出近乎垂直的上升形态。一般观点认为，这类"抛物线行 情"往往难以长期维持，更像是行情进入后半程的典型特征。与此同时，白银RSI数值攀升至90以上，黄 金RSI也逼近历史极值区间，NCE平台表示，这在过往市场周期中通常对应着高位震荡甚至快速回调的 阶段。 回顾历史数据可以发现，类似的技术信号在上世纪80年代曾出现过。当年无论是白银还是黄金，在RSI 触及极端高位后，都经历了幅度较大的价格修正。这并不意味着当前价格必然重演相同路径，但历史对 投资者情绪和行为的启示依然具有参考价值。 值得注意的是，NCE平台观察到，当前贵金属行情已被更广泛的大众媒体所关注。一般观点认为，当市 场故事从专业投资圈扩散至普通公众时，往往意味着交易结构趋于拥挤，尤其是散户力量集中在同一方 向，市场对利好消息的敏感度反而可能下降。 尽管短期风险信号密集出现，但 ...

Core Insights - The silver market has experienced a strong upward trend, rising for five consecutive days and reaching a new high of $75, driven primarily by robust industrial demand, particularly in the solar energy sector [1] - Industrial consumption accounts for 65% of silver demand, with the solar industry representing 15%. The demand from electric vehicles and AI data centers is also surging, with an electric vehicle requiring an average of 25-50 grams of silver, potentially increasing to 1 kilogram per vehicle with the adoption of solid-state battery technology [1] - By 2025, the global silver supply-demand gap is projected to reach 95 million ounces, exacerbated by a 12% year-on-year decline in production from major producing countries like Mexico and Peru, and a mere 1.2% increase in recycled silver [1] - Global silver inventory distribution is highly uneven, with London silver stocks down approximately 75% from their peak in 2019, and transportation bottlenecks affecting New York COMEX inventories, leading to liquidity issues in the global silver market [1] Technical Analysis - Short-term bullish signals are strong, but caution is advised regarding potential overbought pullbacks, with key support and resistance levels to monitor [3] - The MACD indicator shows bullish signals across multiple time frames (15 minutes, 1 hour, 4 hours, daily), indicating strong short-term upward momentum [3] - The KDJ indicator is signaling bearish trends in the short term, suggesting overbought risks [4] - The RSI indicator shows mixed signals, with bearish indications on the 15-minute and 1-hour levels, while the 4-hour and daily levels indicate bullish trends, reflecting significant market divergence [5] Support and Resistance Levels - Key support level to watch is $72.720 per ounce; a drop below this level may lead to further pullbacks [6] - Key resistance level to monitor is $75.495 per ounce; a breakthrough could initiate a new upward trend [7] - Short-term analysis suggests strong bullish signals from MACD, but KDJ and RSI indicate overbought risks, recommending cautious approaches to buying [7]

【国际黄金，白银走势分析】 12月25日，周三（12月24日）：国际黄金开盘继续反弹走强，延续本周突破阻力后的买盘跟进和进一步 的看涨意愿，另外，美元指数经过连续两日的大幅回落，早间开盘继续偏弱，也对其金价产生利好支 撑。短期来看，美元指数布林带偏向开口向下，前景偏弱，后市将继续走低回落，而继续支持金价反 弹，因而，短期操作上，金价仍偏向看涨为主。日内将可关注美国至12月20日当周初请失业金人数（万 人）数据，市场预期保持不变，但根据趋势看涨，个人预计偏向降低而利空金价，但又根据昨日数据利 空金价的表现来看，晚间走势依然还是要么震荡，要么再度反弹转强。操作的主流方向看涨依然还是没 变。 【国际黄金，白银走势分析】 12月25日，周三（12月24日）：国际黄金开盘继续反弹走强，延续本周突破阻力后的买盘跟进和进一步 的看涨意愿，另外，美元指数经过连续两日的大幅回落，早间开盘继续偏弱，也对其金价产生利好支 撑。短期来看，美元指数布林带偏向开口向下，前景偏弱，后市将继续走低回落，而继续支持金价反 弹，因而，短期操作上，金价仍偏向看涨为主。日内将可关注美国至12月20日当周初请失业金人数（万 人）数据，市场预期保持不变 ...

美元/日元连续第三个交易日下跌。 测试20日简单移动平均线（SMA）附近的155.70支撑位。 IC平台从技术角度来看，动量指标证实了看跌基调。MACD指标正在回落至其红色信号线下方，但仍高于零轴；RSI指标倾向于跌破50的中性水平；随机指 标已从超买区域形成看跌交叉。与此同时，布林带正在收窄，价格在突破上轨后回落。 跌破20日简单移动平均线可能会触及50日简单移动平均线附近的强劲支撑位154.65——该水平已限制跌幅超过一个月，并与布林带下轨重合。跌破该水平 后，下一个目标是11月14日的低点153.60附近，随后是10月和9月的低点，分别约为152.00（与7月下降趋势线一致）和151.60。 美元/日元延续了从157.90以来的三天回调走势，形成看跌双顶形态，目前正在测试20日简单移动平均线（SMA）附近的155.70支撑位。 此走势反映了日本央行和美联储的政策分歧，投资者正在消化日本央行会议纪要——其中政策制定者讨论了进一步加息的必要性——而美联储降息预期上升 继续对美元构成压力。尽管美国第三季度GDP数据表现强劲，显示美国经济增速达到两年来的最快水平，但这些预期并未因此改变。 动量指标维持中性至看跌 ...

2025 年 12 月 22 日 市场情绪细分指标出现修复、改善 ——量化择时周报 20251221 相关研究 证券分析师 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 邓虎 A0230520070003 denghu@swsresearch.com 联系人 沈思逸 A0230521070001 shensy@swsresearch.com 权 益 量 化 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务必仔细阅读正文之后的各项信息披露与声明 本研究报告仅通过邮件提供给 中庚基金 使用。1 量 化 策 略 - ⚫ 市场情绪得分周内继续回落：截至 12 月 21 日，市场情绪指标得分为 1.1，较上周五的 1.35 小幅降低，但周五情绪得分出现回升，从情绪角度来看观点偏中性。从所有分项指 标分数之和的变化来看，本周情绪指数综合得分周内出现较明显改善，市场交易活跃度出 现反转回升迹象。 ⚫ 情绪出现修复改善，指标分化仍存：本周价量一致性指标较上周出现一定改善，市场价量 匹配程度回升，资金关注度与标的涨幅相关性增强，情绪端边际回暖；科创 50 相对全 A 成交占比仍处下行通道，风险偏好修复 ...

comex白银日线MACD指标释放看多信号，KDJ指标释放看多信号，RSI释放看多信号。 【技术分析】 沪银主力日线MACD指标释放看多信号，KDJ指标释放看多信号，RSI释放看多信号。 北京时间12月17日14:09，金投网行情中心数据显示：内盘白银期货上涨，截至发稿沪银主力最新报 15529.00元/千克，日内涨幅达5.17%，今日开盘价14690.00元/千克，最高价15555.00元/千克，最低价 14619.00元/千克，成交量1537061.00手，上一交易日沪银主力收盘于14666.00，基差为-92。 打开APP，查看更多高清行情>> 外盘白银期货上涨，COMEX白银价格最新报66.47美元/盎司，日内涨幅达4.20%，上一交易日收盘于 63.80美元/盎司，今日开盘价63.80美元/盎司，最高价66.65美元/盎司，最低价63.73美元/盎司，成交量 41133.00手。 ...

摘要今日周二（11月25日）亚盘时段，伦敦金最新价格为4129.87美元/盎司，较前一交易日下跌13.76美 元，跌幅0.33%，日内最高达到4144.04美元/盎司，最低为4129.09美元/盎司。 今日周二（11月25日）亚盘时段，伦敦金最新价格为4129.87美元/盎司，较前一交易日下跌13.76美元， 跌幅0.33%，日内最高达到4144.04美元/盎司，最低为4129.09美元/盎司。 【要闻速递】 伦敦金在10月创下历史新高后回调，11月以来呈横盘震荡节奏，且逐步进入三角形整理区域，多空争夺 加剧。当前价格仍位于布林中轨之上，均线组基本粘合，参考价值有限，但MACD指标双线接近0轴， 多空动能相对均衡，暂无明确单边趋势信号。不过此前在4000美元关口形成"看涨锤子线"形态，暗示该 区域存在阶段性底部支撑，整体未破坏前期反弹框架。 伦敦金呈现标准的震荡区间走势，黄金价格在4130-4000美元区间反复运行，难以出现大涨大跌走势。 MACD绿柱持续缩小，动能指标偏向多头主导，但缺乏足够量能推动破位，短期大概率维持区间内的来 回波动，需等待市场消息刺激才能形成单边行情。 金价维持区间震荡上行态势，且稳定 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a "first decline then stabilization" trend, influenced primarily by Federal Reserve policy expectations, with short-term price fluctuations expected but long-term support remaining strong due to central bank purchases and geopolitical risks [1][2]. Group 1: Current Market Situation - International gold prices opened lower at $4049.64 per ounce and have since recovered to $4078.59 per ounce, reflecting a decrease of 0.92% from the previous day [1]. - Domestic gold T+D reported at 925.59 yuan per gram, down 29.12 yuan, a decline exceeding 3%, while the Shanghai gold main contract fell by 3.27% to 927.78 yuan per gram [1]. Group 2: Influencing Factors - The primary reason for gold price fluctuations is the impact of Federal Reserve policy expectations, with recent hawkish statements from several officials leading to a drop in December rate cut expectations to around 41% [1]. - High interest rates or low expectations for rate cuts increase the "opportunity cost" of holding gold, making it less attractive to investors [1]. Group 3: Long-term Outlook - Despite short-term declines, the long-term logic supporting gold prices remains intact, particularly due to ongoing purchases by global central banks, especially in emerging markets like China and India [1]. - Geopolitical risks in regions such as the Middle East and Ukraine may trigger a flight to safety, potentially causing a rebound in gold prices [1]. - The RSI indicator for London gold is nearing the "oversold" zone, suggesting that some investors may begin to enter the market for bottom-fishing [1]. Group 4: Future Price Movements - In the short term, gold prices are likely to remain volatile, with key economic data releases in the coming weeks expected to influence market expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate decisions [2]. - The upcoming December FOMC meeting will be crucial, as discussions on inflation and interest rates will directly impact the medium-term trajectory of gold prices [2].

Group 1 - Market sentiment indicators showed a slight decline, with the sentiment score at 1.75 as of October 10, down from 1.85 on September 26, indicating a bearish outlook [8][11] - The trading volume for the entire A-share market increased slightly compared to the previous week, with a peak trading volume of 26,718.18 billion RMB on October 9, indicating improved market activity [14][16] - The financing balance ratio continued to rise, reflecting an increase in market leverage sentiment and improved trading atmosphere among investors [24][26] Group 2 - The model indicates a preference for small-cap value style, with a weak signal strength due to a slight decline in the 5-day RSI relative to the 20-day RSI, suggesting further observation is needed [30][41] - The short-term trend scores for industries such as banks, steel, public utilities, and construction decoration have shown upward trends, with non-ferrous metals currently having the highest short-term score of 98.31 [30][32] - High trading congestion in sectors like non-ferrous metals and coal, alongside lower price increases in sectors like automobiles and electronics, suggests potential volatility risks and opportunities for gradual allocation in low-congestion sectors like pharmaceuticals and beauty care [37][36]

Group 1: Market Sentiment Indicators - The market sentiment index as of October 10 is 1.75, a slight decrease from 1.85 on September 26, indicating a bearish sentiment [8][11] - The financing balance ratio continues to rise, reflecting an increase in market leverage sentiment and improving trading atmosphere [27][11] - The industry trading volatility continues to decline, suggesting a slowdown in fund switching activity and a decrease in market participants' divergent views on short-term industry value [21][11] Group 2: Timing Model Insights - The model indicates a preference for small-cap value style, with a weak signal strength due to a slight decline in the 5-day RSI relative to the 20-day RSI [45][46] - The short-term trend scores for industries such as non-ferrous metals, power equipment, real estate, machinery, and electronics are notably strong, with non-ferrous metals scoring the highest at 98.31 [34][36] - The model maintains a strong signal for value style, suggesting potential for further strengthening in the future [45][46] Group 3: Industry Crowding and Performance - Recent high returns in non-ferrous metals and coal are accompanied by high fund crowding, indicating potential volatility risks due to valuation and sentiment corrections [42][41] - Industries like automotive and electronics show high crowding but lower returns, while sectors with low crowding such as pharmaceuticals and beauty care may present long-term investment opportunities as risk appetite increases [42][41] - The average crowding levels for industries as of October 10 show automotive, environmental protection, real estate, power equipment, and electronics as the highest, while agriculture, computers, defense, beauty care, and pharmaceuticals are the lowest [40][41]