Market Sentiment - The market sentiment indicator as of March 27 is 1.2, down from 1.7 the previous week, indicating a bearish outlook as sentiment continues to decline throughout the week [1][6]. - The price-volume consistency indicator and RSI have both turned negative this week, reflecting a shift from previous oscillation to a sustained bearish view, indicating a weakening market [1][8]. Trading Volume - The total trading volume for the A-share market decreased by 0.65% week-on-week, with an average daily trading volume of 1,394.17 billion yuan, suggesting a slight decline in market activity compared to the previous week [1][10]. Industry Performance - As of March 27, the short-term score rankings for industries show that utilities, coal, power equipment, telecommunications, and oil and petrochemicals are leading, with utilities scoring 91.53, the highest among industries, and coal scoring 84.75, second [1][34]. - The industry crowding indicator shows a low correlation of 0.17 with the weekly price changes, indicating that the crowding level is not significantly impacting price movements [1][37]. Risk Appetite - The relative trading volume of the Sci-Tech 50 index remains low, indicating that market risk appetite is also low, with a slight fluctuation observed [1][13]. - The financing balance ratio has slightly increased this week, suggesting a minor rise in market sentiment and trading activity in the financing market [1][21]. Technical Indicators - The RSI indicator has penetrated the lower boundary and continues to decline rapidly, indicating a weakening short-term momentum [1][25]. - The main buying power indicator has shown a downward trend, reflecting reduced willingness from institutional investors to actively allocate capital in the market [1][28].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View Stainless steel futures are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term supported by nickel ore costs and capital, but the rebound space may be limited due to the unresolved social inventory pressure under the pattern of both supply and demand increasing and the slow recovery of terminal consumption. Attention should be paid to the policy trends of Indonesian nickel ore and the sustainability of downstream restocking [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market On March 24, 2026, the closing price of the stainless steel futures main contract SS2605 was reported at 14,290 yuan/ton, up 205 yuan or 1.46% from the previous trading day's settlement price of 14,085 yuan/ton. The trading volume on that day was 262,223 lots, a month-on-month increase of 49.7%; the open interest was 124,889 lots, an increase of 6,453 lots from the previous day [2]. 3.2 Spot Market Spot prices were stable with an upward trend. The national absolute price index of 304 cold-rolled stainless steel coils was reported at 14,873 yuan/ton. The price of 316 furnace scrap steel in Dainan Town was raised to 18,700 yuan/ton, a month-on-month increase of 200 yuan; the price of 430 film-coated scrap steel remained stable at 3,550 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Influencing Factors In terms of inventory, on March 20, the total social inventory of stainless steel was 1.0726 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.24%, among which the inventory of the 300 series was 693,700 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.90%. The national social inventory of stainless steel continued the destocking trend, and the social inventory data of the 300 series in Wuxi + Foshan showed that the inventory pressure was relieved. The MACD indicator of the stainless steel main contract showed that the fast and slow lines were running above the zero axis, and the red column was enlarged, indicating that the short-term upward momentum was enhanced. The KDI indicator's three lines oscillated above 50, and the I value was running in the overbought area, indicating that the short-term long power was relatively dominant but the callback risk needed to be vigilant. The RSI indicator oscillated in the range of 55 - 65, indicating that the market was in a relatively strong state but not in the overbought area. The Bollinger Band indicator showed that the price was running above the middle track, and the opening was enlarged, indicating that the market volatility increased and the trend was strong [4][5]. 3.4 Market Outlook Stainless steel futures are expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term supported by nickel ore costs and capital, but the rebound space may be limited due to the unresolved social inventory pressure under the pattern of both supply and demand increasing and the slow recovery of terminal consumption. Attention should be paid to the policy trends of Indonesian nickel ore and the sustainability of downstream restocking [6].

Market Sentiment Overview - As of March 20, the market sentiment indicator is at 1.7, up from 1.55 the previous week, indicating a neutral sentiment despite fluctuations throughout the week [1][4] - Multiple sub-indicators have shown a decline compared to the previous week, influenced by ongoing external political risks, suggesting a potential further drop in market sentiment [1][4] Sub-indicator Analysis - The price-volume consistency indicator has rapidly declined, reflecting a weaker correlation between price increases and market attention, indicating an overall bearish sentiment [7][9] - Total trading volume for the A-share market decreased by 12.49% week-on-week, with an average daily trading volume of 14,098.98 billion, further indicating reduced market activity [11] - The proportion of the STAR 50 index relative to the total A-share trading volume has consistently decreased, suggesting a decline in risk appetite [15] - The inter-industry trading volatility has been on the rise, reaching historical highs for 2023, indicating increased activity in switching funds between different sectors [16] - The industry trend indicator initially rose but later showed a downward trend, indicating a reduction in divergence among industry views and a slight increase in consensus on short-term value judgments [18] - The financing balance ratio has slightly decreased, indicating a reduction in market leverage and a decline in investor risk appetite [19] - The RSI indicator has penetrated the lower boundary, suggesting increased downward momentum and reduced buying power, reflecting an overall decline in market sentiment [20] - The net inflow of main funds has shown a downward trend, indicating weakened buying power and reduced enthusiasm from institutional investors [24] Industry Crowding and Trading Heat - The highest average crowding levels as of March 20 are in the utilities, basic chemicals, electrical equipment, construction decoration, and environmental protection sectors, while the lowest are in automotive, defense, social services, retail, and textiles [30][31] - The correlation between crowding and weekly price changes is near zero, indicating that high crowding does not necessarily lead to price increases, with sectors like construction decoration and environmental protection showing low price changes despite high crowding [32] Trend Scoring Model Insights - The short-term scoring model indicates that sectors such as coal, utilities, electrical equipment, communication, and construction decoration are leading in trend scores, with coal having the highest score of 93.22 [25][28] - The model suggests a preference for growth and large-cap styles, with the current signals indicating a strong preference for large-cap stocks [35]

Group 1 - Market sentiment indicators show a weakening trend, with the sentiment index at 1.7 as of March 20, up from 1.55 the previous week, indicating a neutral model perspective [3][9] - The price-volume consistency indicator has rapidly declined, reflecting a decrease in the correlation between price increases and market attention, suggesting an overall bearish sentiment [13][16] - The total trading volume for the A-share market decreased by 12.49% week-on-week, with an average daily trading volume of 1,409.90 billion yuan, indicating reduced market activity [19][22] Group 2 - The short-term scoring model ranks coal, public utilities, electric equipment, communication, and construction decoration as the top industries, with coal scoring 93.22, the highest among all [45][46] - The model indicates that the market is currently favoring large-cap stocks, with a strong signal suggesting that large-cap style is dominant, while growth and value styles show divergence [56] - The industry crowding indicator shows a correlation coefficient of -0.02 with weekly returns, indicating that most industries performed poorly, with only banking and communication yielding positive returns [48][50]

Group 1 - Market sentiment has improved slightly, with the sentiment index rising to 1.55 as of March 13, up from 1.40 the previous week, indicating a neutral model perspective despite ongoing external political risks [7][11]. - The industry trend indicators have rebounded sharply, suggesting a reduction in divergence among funds' industry views, with increased consistency in market sector performance [27][43]. - The average daily trading volume for the entire A-share market decreased by 18.33% week-on-week, with an average daily turnover of 16,158.69 billion yuan, indicating a decline in market activity [17][20]. Group 2 - The short-term scores for banks have increased significantly, with coal and public utilities leading the short-term score rankings at 98.31, indicating strong upward trends in these sectors [43][44]. - The highest average crowding levels are observed in public utilities, basic chemicals, construction decoration, environmental protection, and electric equipment, while the lowest are in commercial retail, textiles, social services, food and beverage, and real estate [46][48]. - The correlation between industry crowding and weekly price changes is relatively low at 0.40, suggesting that sectors with high crowding, such as public utilities and coal, may experience significant price movements, while sectors with low crowding, like defense and retail, may offer better long-term value [49].

Core Viewpoint - The silver futures market is experiencing significant price movements, with both domestic and international markets showing upward trends in silver prices [1]. Domestic Market Summary - The Shanghai silver futures (沪银) are currently priced at 23,019.00 CNY per kilogram, reflecting a daily increase of 0.57% from the previous closing price of 22,572.00 CNY per kilogram [1]. - The opening price for today was 22,088.00 CNY per kilogram, with a daily high of 24,699.00 CNY and a low of 23,101.00 CNY, alongside a trading volume of 389,182 contracts [1]. International Market Summary - The COMEX silver price has risen to 90.34 USD per ounce, marking a daily increase of 1.65% from the previous closing price of 88.87 USD per ounce [1]. - Today's opening price was 89.08 USD per ounce, with a high of 91.17 USD and a low of 88.31 USD, and a trading volume of 11,305 contracts [1]. Technical Analysis - The MACD indicator for Shanghai silver futures is signaling a bullish trend, while the KDJ indicator is indicating a bearish trend, and the RSI is showing a bullish signal [1]. - For COMEX silver, the MACD and KDJ indicators are both signaling a bearish trend, while the RSI is indicating a bullish signal [1].

Core Viewpoint - The silver futures market shows mixed performance, with domestic silver prices slightly rising while international silver prices experience a significant decline [1]. Domestic Market Summary - As of the latest report, the main silver futures in Shanghai are priced at 22,572.00 yuan per kilogram, reflecting a daily increase of 0.47% [1]. - The opening price for the day was 22,975.00 yuan per kilogram, with a high of 24,699.00 yuan and a low of 23,101.00 yuan, alongside a trading volume of 357,610 contracts [1]. - The previous trading day's closing price was 23,029.00 yuan per kilogram [1]. International Market Summary - The COMEX silver price is currently at 88.96 USD per ounce, showing a daily decrease of 1.00% [1]. - The opening price for the day was 89.56 USD per ounce, with a high of 90.99 USD and a low of 87.80 USD, and a trading volume of 15,443 contracts [1]. - The previous trading day's closing price was 89.86 USD per ounce [1]. Technical Analysis - For Shanghai silver, the daily MACD indicator is signaling a bullish trend, while the KDJ indicator indicates a bearish trend, and the RSI shows a bullish signal [1]. - In contrast, the COMEX silver's daily MACD and KDJ indicators are both signaling a bearish trend, while the RSI indicates a bullish signal [1].

Core Viewpoint - Silver has strongly broken out of a symmetrical triangle structure that it had been consolidating in for most of February, with the $92 area now identified as a key resistance level to test [3][8]. Group 1: Price Levels and Breakout Potential - The price is expected to retest the upper boundary around $92.20, which is considered crucial [3][8]. - If silver can break through $92.20 and $92.88, it may encourage sidelined bulls to seek a retest of the historical high of $121.66 set on January 29 [4][10]. - A sustained breakout above $92.88 could lead to long positions, with initial targets set at $95.90, $102, or $112.50, which previously acted as minor support or resistance levels [4][11]. Group 2: Alternative Entry Points and Indicators - For traders unwilling to wait for further confirmation of a breakout, a pullback to $86 may present a potential entry point, aligning with the 38.2% retracement level from the January-February movement [4][11]. - The 50-day moving average is another critical level to monitor; a drop below this could raise doubts about the validity of the triangle breakout and shift the directional bias back to neutral [4][11]. - The RSI (14) is currently above 50 and rising, indicating that upward momentum is beginning to build, while the MACD is close to crossing above the signal line, suggesting a potential shift in momentum [5][11].

Core Viewpoint - COMEX gold prices have shown a significant upward trend, with a year-to-date increase of 19.27% as of February 23 [1] Price Movement Summary - The latest COMEX gold price is reported at $5166.80 per ounce, with a daily change of 0.72% [1] - Over the last 5 days, the price has increased by 5.49% [1] - In the last 10 days, the price has risen by 2.25% [1] - The price has increased by 4.05% over the last 15 days [1] - For the last 30 days, the increase is 12.45% [1] - Over the past 60 days, the price has surged by 21.78% [1] Technical Analysis - The daily MACD indicator is signaling a bullish trend [1] - The KDJ indicator is indicating a bearish signal [1] - The RSI is showing a bullish signal [1]

Group 1 - The latest price of silver futures in New York is reported at $78.97 per ounce, with a daily fluctuation of 2.39% [1] - Over the last 5 days, the price of silver futures has changed by 2.66%, while the change over the last 10 days is 2.38% [1] - The price has decreased by 4.72% over the last 15 days and by 0.85% over the last 30 days [1] - In the last 60 days, the price of silver has increased by 38.34%, and since the beginning of the year, the COMEX silver price has risen by 11.26% [1] Group 2 - Technical analysis indicates a bullish signal from the daily MACD indicator, while the KDJ and RSI indicators are showing bearish signals [1]