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Microsoft plays catchup in AI race with OpenAI announcement
Youtube· 2026-01-29 19:03
Core Viewpoint - Microsoft's reliance on OpenAI for future revenue is becoming a source of anxiety due to the concentration of its remaining performance obligations (RPO) tied to OpenAI contracts, which constitutes about 45% of its backlog [1][2]. Group 1: Remaining Performance Obligation (RPO) - RPO, or remaining performance obligation, represents the backlog revenue Microsoft expects to recognize from already signed contracts [1]. - The concentration of RPO tied to OpenAI raises concerns as the AI landscape evolves, particularly with the potential for model commoditization and competition from rivals like Amazon [2]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Investors are questioning the durability of demand for OpenAI's services if its compute spending shifts or is shared with competitors [3]. - The focus in the AI race is shifting from model development to product offerings, with competitors like Anthropic gaining attention for their innovative approaches [3]. - OpenAI's upcoming model, GPT-6, expected in the second quarter, may help restore its competitive narrative, but Microsoft may not benefit as significantly as it has in the past [4].