Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Wiwynn Corporation with a target price of TWD3,400, implying approximately 32.8% upside from the current price of TWD2,560 [4][21][22]. Core Insights - The report highlights stronger growth in ASIC servers compared to GPU servers, with expectations for continued momentum into the second half of 2025 [2][7]. - Major PC ODMs experienced a significant pull-in in notebook shipments in June 2025, with a 22% month-over-month increase and an 11% quarter-over-quarter rise, exceeding previous guidance [1][3]. - The overall outlook for notebook shipments in the second half of 2025 remains cautious due to unclear consumer demand, with a forecasted year-over-year growth of only 3% [3][4]. Summary by Sections ASIC Server Outlook - The demand for ASIC servers is expected to strengthen in the second half of 2025, particularly driven by AWS's Trainium 2 servers, with a forecast of sequential double-digit growth in rack shipments [2][4]. - The yield rate for GB200 server rack assembly is anticipated to improve from below 50% in the second quarter of 2025 to 60-70% in the second half of 2025 [2]. Notebook Market Analysis - The early pull-in of notebook shipments is largely completed, with a muted growth outlook for the second half of 2025 due to ongoing consumer demand uncertainty [3][4]. - The report estimates a 1% quarter-over-quarter increase in notebook shipments for the third quarter of 2025, which is below seasonal norms [3]. Stock Recommendations - Wiwynn is favored due to its strong revenue outlook supported by accelerating ASIC server shipments, with Oracle expected to contribute 7% to Wiwynn's revenue in 2025 [4][7]. - The report emphasizes the potential for additional upside from Oracle beyond 2025, driven by market share shifts and an expanding addressable market [4].

Investment Rating - The report upgrades Aspeed Technology from Equal-weight to Overweight with a price target of NT$5,000 and raises Montage Technology's price target to Rmb100 from Rmb88 [6][35]. Core Insights - The report indicates a shift in perspective on cloud semiconductors, moving from a neutral stance to a positive outlook as a potential trough in cloud capital expenditures (capex) is anticipated in 4Q/1Q26, with US tariff impacts already priced in [2][33]. - Strong growth in US cloud capex is projected, with a year-over-year increase of 38% in 2025, marking it as the third strongest year of capex growth in the past decade [10][12]. - The report highlights that the market may be underestimating the upside risks associated with CPU and non-standard AI server demand, particularly with the ramp-up of GB racks and increased semi content in servers [9][4]. Summary by Sections Cloud Semiconductor Outlook - The report suggests that the cloud semiconductor cycle is likely to trough soon, with earnings revisions expected to bottom out and improvements in GB rack yield [2][3]. - General server demand has exceeded expectations in the first half of the year, driven by inference demand and alternative GPU solutions, indicating sustained demand into the second half [3][4]. Company-Specific Insights - Aspeed's earnings downgrades are believed to have reached a bottom, prompting an upgrade to Overweight due to anticipated earnings momentum [5][41]. - Montage is expected to benefit from the adoption of advanced interfaces by China server brands, with a projected earnings growth of 25% CAGR from 2024 to 2027 [5][33]. Financial Projections - The report raises earnings estimates for Aspeed by 9% for 2025, 8% for 2026, and 31% for 2027, while Montage's earnings are raised by 9% and 11% for 2026 and 2027, respectively [5][33]. - Montage's valuation appears attractive at 38x the estimated EPS for 2026, especially given the forecasted earnings growth [5][41]. Market Trends - The report notes that the cumulative capex from the top 11 global cloud players is expected to reach US$392 billion in 2025, representing 16.6% of their revenue, which is an all-time high [10][12]. - The anticipated increase in semi content in servers is linked to enhanced security functions, which will likely benefit companies with comprehensive product offerings [4][9].

6 June 2025 Asia Tech Hardware Server ODM/OEM primer (2025) - Players, Positioning and Profitability Alex Wang, CFA +852 2123 2613 alex.wang@bernsteinsg.com Shirley Yang, CFA +852 2123 2660 shirley.yang@bernsteinsg.com Ethan Xu +852 2123 2634 ethan.xu@bernsteinsg.com We published a primer on server ODM/OEM in Oct 2024. This updated version include the ASIC server segment, and the competition landscape changes among GPU AI servers outside of China. For investors interested in China AI server, please refer to ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was $25.1 million, a 17% decrease year over year and slightly below the $26.1 million reported in Q4 2024 [19] - Bitcoin mining revenue was $7.8 million, down 64% year over year and 26% sequentially, primarily due to the April 2024 halving event and increased network difficulty [19][20] - Cloud services revenue increased 84% year over year and 14% sequentially to $14.8 million, supported by new contracts [19][20] - Gross profit was $12.3 million, representing a total gross margin of 49%, compared to 47% in the same quarter last year [21] - Adjusted EBITDA was negative $44.5 million, compared to a positive $58.5 million in Q1 2024, primarily due to a $49.2 million mark-to-market loss on digital asset holdings [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Mining segment revenue decreased 64% year over year, with production declining 80% to 83 bitcoins for the quarter [5][6] - Cloud services gross margin expanded to 59% from 52% in the previous quarter, reflecting improved utilization and scale [21] - Colocation services gross margin improved modestly to 67% [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Active Hash rate stood at approximately 1.5 exahash, with fleet efficiency at approximately 24.5 joules per terahash [7] - The market value of digital asset positions appreciated on a mark-to-market basis, with Bitcoin prices increasing by 25% and Ethereum by 40% since the quarter end [25] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on investing in data center build-out and cloud services, with a strategy to secure multiyear contracts with creditworthy counterparties [8][12] - The company is pursuing nondilutive financing structures to support the expansion of its HPC platform and has initiated the process for commercial mortgage financing in the US [27][29] - The company is actively evaluating over 500 megawatts of potential capacity across Canada and the US, focusing on retrofitting existing sites [52][53] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges in the mining segment due to the halving event and increased competition but expressed confidence in the growth of cloud services [6][8] - The management is optimistic about securing large contracts with annualized revenue potential above $100 million, reflecting the strength of the platform built through disciplined investment [12] - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining a strong liquidity position to build trust with customers and support growth initiatives [29][30] Other Important Information - The company held $57.6 million in cash and cash equivalents and $3.7 million in restricted cash as of March 31 [25] - The company remains debt-free and spent approximately $65 million on capital expenditures during the quarter, primarily on GPUs and data center infrastructure [26] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on white fiber rebranding and platform initiatives - The rebranding has been well received, with positive feedback on the new website and upcoming first-to-market technology announcements expected soon [33][34][35] Question: Demand from hyperscalers and enterprise users - Strong demand is observed from both hyperscalers and medium-sized NeoClouds, with updates expected in the coming months [38][40] Question: Delay in customer contract start date - The delay was due to internal product development schedule changes, but the company has options to utilize GPUs for other contracts if necessary [43][44][47] Question: Expansion in the US versus Canada - The company is evaluating over 500 megawatts of potential capacity in both regions, focusing on retrofitting existing sites for efficiency [51][52][53] Question: Balancing equity issuance and liquidating investments - The company maintains flexibility with its ATM program while balancing equity issuance with selling digital assets to fund growth responsibly [58][62] Question: Gross margin profile and GPU procurement strategy - The company aims to increase margins through long-term contracts and strategic procurement aligned with customer demand [70][78]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q1 2025 was $25.1 million, a 17% decrease year over year and slightly below the $26.1 million reported in Q4 2024 [19] - Bitcoin mining revenue was $7.8 million, down 64% year over year and 26% sequentially, reflecting the impact of the April 2024 halving event and increased network difficulty [20] - Cloud services revenue increased 84% year over year and 14% sequentially to $14.8 million, supported by new contracts [20] - Gross profit was $12.3 million, representing a total gross margin of 49%, compared to 47% in the same quarter last year [21] - Adjusted EBITDA was negative $44.5 million, primarily due to a $49.2 million mark to market loss on digital asset holdings [23] - GAAP net loss per share was $0.32, compared to earnings of $0.43 per share in Q1 2024 [24] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Mining segment revenue decreased 64% year over year and 26% sequentially, with production declining 80% year over year to 83 bitcoins [5][20] - Cloud services gross margin expanded to 59% from 52% in the previous quarter, reflecting improved utilization and scale [21] - Colocation services gross margin improved modestly to 67% [21] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Active Hash rate stood at approximately 1.5 exahash, with fleet efficiency at approximately 24.5 joules per terahash [6] - The market value of digital asset positions appreciated on a mark to market basis, with Bitcoin and Ethereum prices increasing by 25% and 40% respectively since the quarter end [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on investing in data center build-out and cloud services, with a strategy to secure multiyear contracts with creditworthy counterparties [11][12] - The company aims to pursue nondilutive financing structures to support the expansion of its HPC platform [26] - The acquisition of a 95-acre property in North Carolina is intended for data center development, with a robust pipeline of over 500 megawatts of potential capacity under evaluation [15][16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledged the challenges in the mining segment due to market conditions but expressed confidence in the growth of cloud services and colocation segments [5][19] - The company remains optimistic about securing large contracts with annualized revenue potential above $100 million [11] - Management emphasized the importance of maintaining a strong liquidity position to build trust with customers and execute growth strategies [28] Other Important Information - The company raised approximately $10 million through its ATM program during the first quarter and an additional $48 million subsequent to the quarter end [27] - The company sold approximately $32 million worth of Bitcoin holdings during the quarter to help fund growth [28] Q&A Session Summary Question: Update on white fiber rebranding and platform initiatives - The rebrand has been well received, with positive feedback on the new website and upcoming first-to-market technology announcements expected soon [32][33] Question: Demand from hyperscalers and enterprise users - Strong demand is observed from hyperscalers and medium-sized NeoClouds for capacity, with updates expected in the coming months [40] Question: Reason for customer contract start date shift - The shift in start date was due to internal product development schedule changes, and the company is prepared to utilize the GPUs for other contracts if necessary [44][47] Question: Expansion in the US versus Canada - The company is evaluating over 500 megawatts of potential capacity across both Canada and the US, focusing on retrofitting existing sites for efficiency [52][54] Question: Balancing equity issuance and liquidating investments - The company maintains flexibility with its ATM program while balancing equity issuance with selling digital assets to fund growth responsibly [60][62] Question: Gross margin profile changes and GPU procurement strategy - The company aims to increase margins by spreading operating lease costs over a larger revenue base and continues to minimize speculative procurement risks [71][78]

Super Micro Computer TodaySMCISuper Micro Computer$45.84 +6.95 (+17.87%) 52-Week Range$17.25▼$101.40P/E Ratio23.01Price Target$45.25Add to WatchlistAfter more than a year of struggles and uncertainties, the market for Super Micro Computer NASDAQ: SMCI is ready to rebound, rebound strongly, and continue rallying on into the year’s end. The reason is that the accounting issues are behind it, and the news cycle is increasingly positive. The most visible catalyst is the U.S. opening of Saudi Arabian AI markets ...