Core Insights - Sea Limited (SE) and Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) are benefiting from increased consumer spending on mobile games, with mobile game revenues reaching approximately $6.85 billion in May, reflecting a 5.4% month-over-month increase [2][3] - Video game revenues are projected to grow at a CAGR of 7.01% from 2025 to 2030, reaching $733.22 billion, with mobile game revenues expected to hit $163.98 billion by 2030, indicating significant growth opportunities for both companies [3] Sea Limited (SE) Analysis - SE's Garena Digital Entertainment revenues increased 8.2% year-over-year to $495.6 million in Q1 2025, with bookings soaring 51.4% year-over-year to $775.4 million, driven by the success of Free Fire [4] - Garena Free Fire was the second most downloaded mobile game globally in May 2025, with a growing user base in markets like India, Brazil, and Indonesia [4][5] - Quarterly active users rose 11.3% year-over-year to 661.8 million, while quarterly paying users increased 32.2% year-over-year to 64.6 million, resulting in a paying user ratio of 9.8% [5] - SE's gaming portfolio expansion includes the launch of Delta Force Mobile, which attracted over 10 million downloads, and the company aims for double-digit growth in user base and bookings for Garena in 2025 [6] Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) Analysis - In Q4 fiscal 2025, TTWO's NBA 2K25 exceeded forecasts with nearly 10 million units sold, a 7% increase compared to NBA 2K24 [7] - The Grand Theft Auto series continues to perform well, with GTA V selling over 215 million units, and Red Dead Redemption 2 showing a 23% year-over-year growth in net bookings [7] - However, TTWO's reliance on a few franchises poses challenges, as the anticipated Grand Theft Auto VI release has been delayed to May 26, 2026, impacting near-term revenue expectations [8] - TTWO's fiscal 2026 guidance for net bookings is $5.9-$6 billion, reflecting a modest 5% growth, with increasing cost pressures and flat recurrent consumer spending expected [9][10] Stock Performance and Valuation - Year-to-date, Sea Limited shares have surged 46.8%, outperforming Take-Two Interactive's 31.2% increase [11] - Both companies are currently considered overvalued, with Sea Limited trading at a forward Price/Sales ratio of 3.78X, lower than TTWO's 6.22X [14][17] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Sea Limited's 2025 earnings is $2.68 per share, indicating a 41.8% year-over-year increase, while TTWO's fiscal 2026 earnings estimate is $2.93 per share, reflecting a 42.93% year-over-year jump despite a 10.4% decline over the past 30 days [19][20] Business Model Comparison - Sea Limited benefits from a diversified business model, with growth in its e-commerce platform Shopee and fintech service Monee, while TTWO's performance is heavily reliant on its established franchises [21] - Sea Limited's strategic expansion into underserved markets like Brazil signals a pivot towards sustainable growth, contrasting with TTWO's challenges in maintaining consistent release schedules [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - Take-Two Interactive Software (TTWO) has seen a 32% increase year to date, but this rally is viewed with caution due to fundamental weaknesses and concerning financial metrics indicating the stock may be overvalued and due for a correction [1][10]. Financial Performance - Take-Two reported a GAAP net loss of $4.48 billion for fiscal 2025, worsening from a $3.74 billion loss the previous year, primarily due to goodwill impairment charges of $3.55 billion [2]. - The company's operational cash flow turned negative at $45.2 million for fiscal 2025, highlighting fundamental weaknesses despite the stock's recent surge [3]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the full year was only $199.1 million, indicating a disconnect between financial performance and stock price appreciation [4]. Revenue and Growth Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2026 revenues is $5.99 billion, reflecting a 6.1% year-over-year growth, with earnings expected to rise 42.93% to $2.93 per share [5]. - The company's fiscal 2026 guidance for net bookings is $5.9-$6 billion, representing only 5% growth, which does not justify the recent stock surge [7]. Dependence on Key Releases - Take-Two's business model is heavily reliant on a few blockbuster releases, with the anticipated Grand Theft Auto VI release delayed to May 26, 2026, impacting near-term revenue expectations [6][7]. - The concentration risk is evident as a small number of franchises, such as NBA 2K and Grand Theft Auto, generate the majority of income, limiting diversification [8]. Growth Trajectory and Margin Pressures - The company faces a declining growth trajectory, with guidance indicating flat recurrent consumer spending in fiscal 2026, raising concerns for its business model [9]. - Operating expenses are projected to increase by 3% year-over-year, primarily due to higher marketing costs, which, combined with modest revenue growth, suggests margin compression [12]. - Capital expenditures are planned at approximately $140 million for fiscal 2026, which may not yield immediate returns, adding pressure to near-term financial performance [13]. Competitive Landscape - Take-Two trades at a premium P/E ratio of around 55.11, significantly above the industry average of 34.38, indicating a stretched valuation [14]. - The gaming industry is increasingly competitive, with major players like Microsoft and Sony capturing market share, while Take-Two struggles to match operational metrics of competitors like Electronic Arts and Activision Blizzard [22].

TAKE-TWO INTERACTIVE TAKE-TWO INTERACTIVE SOFTWARE, INC. 2 COMPANY OVERVIEW TAKE-TWO INTERACTIVE Leading multi-platform developer, publisher and marketer of interactive entertainment, the strongest growth segment of the entertainment industry | | Fit | 2 | 定 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | CONSOLE | X | X | | | PC | X | × | | | MOBILE | X | X | X | (NASDAQ: TTWO) MAY 2025 CAUTIONARY NOTE: FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS The statements contained herein, which are not historical facts, including statements relating ...

Core Insights - The gaming industry is rapidly evolving with two dominant approaches: traditional gaming represented by Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) and a platform-based model exemplified by Roblox (RBLX) [1][2] Company Analysis: Roblox (RBLX) - Roblox reported a 29% year-over-year revenue growth to $1.035 billion in Q1 2025, significantly outperforming industry averages [3] - Bookings increased by 31% to $1.207 billion, and daily active users rose by 26% to 97.8 million, indicating strong user acquisition and retention [3] - Engagement metrics showed a 30% increase in hours engaged, totaling 21.7 billion hours, with users aged 13 and older now making up 62% of total DAUs and growing at 36% year-over-year [4] - International markets are showing significant growth potential, with DAU growth of 48% in Japan and 77% in India [5] - Operating cash flow surged 86% to $443.9 million, and free cash flow more than doubled to $426.5 million, highlighting strong financial performance [6] Company Analysis: Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) - Take-Two reported net bookings of $1.58 billion in Q4 2025, driven by strong performance from NBA 2K25 and a 14% increase in recurrent consumer spending [7] - The anticipated release of Grand Theft Auto VI is a significant future growth catalyst, although its delay to May 2026 pushes potential revenue further out [8] - Fiscal 2025 net bookings grew only 6% to $5.65 billion, with guidance for fiscal 2026 suggesting continued modest growth of 5% [10] - The company recorded goodwill impairment charges of $3.55 billion, raising concerns about previous acquisitions and capital allocation decisions [10] - Take-Two's business model relies heavily on blockbuster releases, creating volatility and execution risk, and it lacks the diversified creator economy that supports sustainable growth [11] Valuation and Performance Comparison - Roblox's shares have increased by 67.9% year-to-date, outperforming Take-Two's 25.1% gain [13] - Roblox's price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is 11.24x, while Take-Two's is 5.99x, reflecting different growth profiles and investor expectations [17] - Roblox's superior revenue growth and expanding margins justify its higher valuation, contrasting with Take-Two's modest growth outlook and reliance on infrequent releases [20] Conclusion - Roblox is positioned as the superior investment choice due to stronger growth fundamentals, better financial performance, and more compelling long-term prospects [21] - The platform's growth metrics and creator economy provide multiple growth vectors, while Take-Two's reliance on blockbuster releases and goodwill impairments raise concerns [21]

Key Takeaways Garena bookings jumped 51.4% to $775.4M, driven by Free Fire and a key NARUTO SHIPPUDEN collaboration. User base hit 661.8M with higher monetization; EBITDA margin reached 59% on operational efficiency. SE expects double-digit growth ahead, led by the Delta Force Mobile launch and Free City pre-registration.Sea Limited’s (SE) digital entertainment division, Garena, delivered an impressive first quarter of 2025, driven by the success of its flagship game, Free Fire, which is expected to susta ...

Core Viewpoint - Pomerantz LLP is investigating claims of potential securities fraud or unlawful business practices involving Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. and its officers or directors [1]. Group 1: Company Developments - On May 2, 2025, Take-Two's subsidiary Rockstar Games announced a new release date for Grand Theft Auto VI, moving it to May 26, 2026, from a previously projected fall 2025 release [3]. - Following the announcement of the delayed release, Take-Two's stock price dropped by $15.67 per share, or 6.66%, closing at $219.50 per share on the same day [3]. Group 2: Legal Investigation - Pomerantz LLP is actively seeking investors of Take-Two who may have been affected by the alleged securities fraud and unlawful business practices [1]. - The firm has a long history in corporate, securities, and antitrust class litigation, having recovered numerous multimillion-dollar damages awards for victims of securities fraud [4].

Core Insights - Take-Two Interactive (TTWO) is experiencing growth due to a strong product portfolio and innovative pipeline, with net bookings increasing 17% year-over-year to $1.58 billion in Q4 fiscal 2025, driven by a 14% rise in recurrent consumer spending, which constituted 77% of total net bookings [1][9] Group 1: Financial Performance - In fiscal 2026, net bookings are projected to be between $5.9 billion and $6 billion, reflecting confidence in the company's growth trajectory [2][9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TTWO's 2026 revenues is $5.99 billion, indicating a 6.10% year-over-year growth, with earnings estimated at $3.27 per share, representing a 59.51% increase from the previous year [14] Group 2: Product Pipeline - Upcoming releases include major titles such as Mafia: The Old Country, Borderlands 4, NBA 2K26, WWE 2K26, CSR 3, Civilization VII for Switch, and the highly anticipated Grand Theft Auto VI, set for May 2026 [3] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Take-Two faces significant competition from Electronic Arts (EA) and Microsoft, with EA reporting a net bookings increase of 8% year-over-year to $1.8 billion in its fiscal Q4 2025, and Microsoft leveraging its broader portfolio to maintain a competitive edge [4][5][6] Group 4: Stock Performance and Valuation - TTWO shares have appreciated 25.5% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Gaming industry's return of 1.8% [7] - The company appears overvalued with a forward price-to-sales ratio of 6.09, higher than the industry average of 3.22, and carries a Value Score of F [11]

Core Viewpoint - The Schall Law Firm is investigating claims against Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. for potential violations of securities laws related to misleading statements and failure to disclose important information to investors [1][2]. Group 1: Investigation Details - The investigation centers on whether Take-Two issued false or misleading statements or failed to disclose relevant information to investors [2]. - Take-Two's Rockstar Games announced a delay for the highly anticipated video game Grand Theft Auto VI, moving the release date from fall 2025 to May 26, 2026 [2]. - Following the announcement of the delay, Take-Two's shares dropped by over 6.6% on the same day [2].

Group 1 - Take-Two Interactive Software, Inc. is recognized as a leading company in the gaming industry, owning popular titles such as Grand Theft Auto, NBA2K, and Red Dead Redemption [1] - The focus is on identifying high-quality companies with a market capitalization of less than $10 billion, which present significant growth opportunities [1] - The ideal companies should demonstrate a long-term capability of capital compounding with a high compound annual growth rate, potentially delivering tenfold returns or more [1] Group 2 - A conservative investment strategy is primarily adopted, with occasional pursuits of opportunities that offer a favorable risk-reward ratio [1] - The approach emphasizes maintaining a long-term perspective to achieve higher returns compared to market indices in a rapidly evolving investment landscape [1]

May 2025 Eric Sheridan Goldman, Sachs & Co. +1 917 343-8683 eric.sheridan@gs.com The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. Framing the Industry Trends at the Intersection of Gaming, Media & Monetization (RBLX Deep Dive) US Internet & Interactive Entertainment Coverage Universe Julia Fein-Ashley Goldman, Sachs & Co. +1 212 902-5070 julia.fein-ashley@gs.com Goldman Sachs does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict o ...