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地平线机器人-W(9660.HK):软硬一体 向高而行 开启智驾新征程
Ge Long Hui· 2025-05-19 14:06
Core Viewpoint - The company is a leading player in the domestic third-party intelligent driving chip and solution market, with advanced integrated hardware and software technology, strategic positioning, and business model [1] Company Positioning - The company is positioned as an algorithm software company disguised as a chip manufacturer, focusing on intelligent driving solutions, aiming to become the Wintel of the robotic era [1] - The company has grown into the leading third-party intelligent driving solution provider in China since shifting its strategy in 2019 [1] - The company’s full-stack hardware and software products include chips, underlying software (BPU and toolchain), and algorithms, with the Zhengcheng series of intelligent driving chips holding the largest market share domestically [1] Financial Performance - The company is expected to deliver approximately 2.9 million units in 2024, with total revenue projected at 2.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.6%, and a gross margin of 77.3% [1] - Revenue from technology licensing and service business is expected to reach 1.65 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 92% [1] - Revenue for 2025 is projected to reach 3.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.1%, and 5.8 billion yuan in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 70.1% [3] Industry Trends - The intelligent driving sector is experiencing a shift towards increased penetration and self-sufficiency in the supply chain, which is becoming a key competitive factor in the automotive industry [2] - The penetration rate of mid-to-high-end intelligent driving configurations in passenger vehicles is expected to rise significantly, with new vehicle penetration projected to increase from approximately 10% in 2024 [2] Competitive Advantages - The company’s core competitive advantage lies in its unique integrated hardware and software model, which covers high-tech barriers and high-value-added segments of the industry [2] - The company is well-positioned to establish market dominance as the trend of intelligent driving equity develops [2] Investment Value - The market's perception of the company's investment value is primarily focused on its leading position in self-sufficient intelligent driving chips, despite concerns about potential limitations from OEMs developing their own chips [2] - The company’s intelligent driving software algorithm capabilities may be undervalued, with the HSD high-end intelligent driving solution expected to reshape market perceptions in 2025 [2] Future Growth Potential - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate of 50% over the next 3-5 years, with total revenue projected to reach 12 billion yuan by 2028 and net profit exceeding 1 billion yuan [3] - Long-term projections suggest that if the company can achieve 6 million units of high-end intelligent driving solutions and a 20%-25% global market share in mid-to-low-end intelligent driving, revenue could reach 30 billion yuan, resulting in nearly 10 billion yuan in profit [3]