Core Insights - The 15th China Automotive Forum was successfully held in Shanghai from July 10 to 12, where Horizon Robotics' President Chen Liming delivered a keynote speech on the latest trends in the intelligent driving industry and the company's technological innovations [1]. Group 1: Industry Trends - Intelligent driving technology is at a critical development stage, with a potential for rapid growth as it has reached an inflection point [1]. - The growth is supported by three factors: the integration of intelligent driving in China's new energy vehicle strategy, the expansion of Navigate on Autopilot (NOA) features from high-end to mid-range vehicles, and consumer preference for intelligent features in electric vehicles, especially among premium brands [1]. Group 2: Challenges in Intelligent Driving - Despite the promising outlook, intelligent driving faces challenges, particularly with urban NOA, which is still in a "usable" stage due to complex traffic conditions leading to safety issues [2]. - Current systems have limited Operational Design Domain (ODD) and weak generalization capabilities, which restrict their usage areas [2]. - High-performance systems are costly, hindering widespread adoption [2]. Group 3: Technological Innovations by Horizon - Horizon has developed the Vision Mamba algorithm, which addresses computational and visual challenges, enhancing performance with linear complexity and global perception [2]. - The Senna architecture combines end-to-end models with Visual Language Models (VLM), improving generalization and decision-making capabilities while reducing planning errors and collision rates [2]. - The Journey 6 series chips cover a range of intelligent driving applications, with the Journey 6P chip set to debut in Chery vehicles this year [2]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Horizon supports domestic manufacturers in producing intelligent driving systems and collaborates with international companies, including strategic partnerships with Bosch and Denso announced at the Shanghai Auto Show [3]. - The future of the intelligent driving industry is expected to see further integration of hardware and software, leading to the development of a unified AI Agent for distributed control [3]. - Horizon aims to collaborate with partners across the industry chain to create user-friendly intelligent driving products that deliver real value to consumers [3].

Core Insights - The intelligent driving industry is at a critical inflection point, with the potential for rapid growth or falling into an innovation gap as technology penetration reaches 10% to 20% [4] - The future growth of mid-to-high level intelligent driving is supported by three main factors: its central role in China's smart connected new energy vehicle strategy, the decreasing costs and increasing accessibility of advanced driving features, and strong consumer demand for intelligent features in vehicle purchases [4] Industry Trends - Intelligent driving is a core component of China's "14th Five-Year Plan" and is expected to drive the automotive industry from manufacturing to intelligent manufacturing [4] - The cost of advanced driving features has decreased significantly, with functionalities like urban NOA and highway NOA now available in vehicles priced below 150,000 yuan, accelerating the "smart driving equality" movement [4] - Consumer surveys indicate that intelligent features are among the top factors influencing the purchase of new energy vehicles, with a strong emphasis on intelligent driving and smart cockpit features in high-end models [4] Challenges - Despite advancements, intelligent driving still faces challenges, particularly in urban NOA, which is currently at a "usable" level but not meeting user expectations [5] - Issues include the system's performance in complex scenarios, limited operational design domain (ODD), and high costs, necessitating improvements in both system performance and application range [5] Technological Innovations - Horizon has made significant breakthroughs in four core areas: algorithms, software architecture, computing power, and data/engineering capabilities [6][7][8] - The Vision Mamba algorithm represents a key advancement in visual perception technology, achieving a 2.8 times increase in computation speed and an 87% reduction in GPU memory usage [6] - The new Senna multi-modal architecture integrates sensor and map data for improved vehicle control, resulting in over a 40% reduction in average planning displacement error and a 45% decrease in collision rates [6] Product Development - Horizon has launched the Horizon SuperDrive urban assistance driving system, which utilizes a combination of cameras and radar to enable full-scene intelligent driving without high-precision maps [9] - The system has demonstrated its ability to handle complex driving scenarios and is set for mass production this year [9] Future Outlook - The future of intelligent driving is expected to evolve towards hardware integration and software unification, with a focus on creating user-friendly intelligent driving products [9]

Core Insights - The 15th China Automotive Forum will be held in Shanghai from July 10 to 12, 2025, focusing on the theme "Quality Improvement and New Directions for Intelligent Driving" [1] - Dr. Chen Liming, President of Horizon Robotics, delivered a keynote speech discussing the latest research and industry insights in the field of intelligent driving [1] Industry Trends - Intelligent driving is at a critical inflection point in China, driven by three main factors: its significant role in the national strategy for smart connected new energy vehicles, the industry's push for technology democratization, and increasing consumer demand for intelligent features in electric vehicles [3][7] - The functionality of Highway Navigation on Autopilot (NOA) is becoming more user-friendly, while urban NOA is still in a "usable" stage, facing challenges such as complex traffic conditions and system performance issues [7] Technological Innovations - Horizon Robotics has made significant advancements in visual perception algorithms, evolving from traditional methods to the new Vision Mamba algorithm, which improves computational efficiency and resource optimization [11] - The Senna architecture combines end-to-end models with Visual Language Models (VLM), demonstrating over 40% reduction in average planning displacement error and 45% decrease in average collision rates compared to traditional models [14] Chip Technology - The Journey 6 series chips from Horizon Robotics cover a full range of intelligent driving applications, with the Journey 6P chip innovating in areas such as function, floating-point operations, and memory management, effectively reducing system deployment costs [17] Data and Engineering Capabilities - Horizon Robotics has introduced a solution combining reinforcement learning with world models, enabling continuous interaction with the environment for autonomous learning and optimization [19] - The company has achieved ISO 8800 certification for road vehicle safety and AI, providing over 8 million solutions and aiming to exceed 10 million this year, supporting over 200 vehicle models [19] Product Launches - The Horizon SuperDrive (HSD) for urban driving utilizes a one-stage end-to-end model and is set to enter mass production this year, featuring a configuration of 11 cameras and 1 millimeter-wave radar [22] - Horizon Robotics emphasizes its commitment to serving both domestic and global markets, collaborating with major international companies like Bosch and Denso [22]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state and future directions of autonomous driving technology, emphasizing the maturity of certain technologies like BEV and the emerging focus on VLA/VLM, while highlighting the challenges in corner case handling and the need for robust models [2][11][37]. Group 1: Current Technology Maturity - The BEV (Bird's Eye View) perception model is considered fully mature and widely adopted in the industry, effectively handling dynamic and static perception tasks [11][45]. - The introduction of VLA (Vision-Language Alignment) is seen as a promising approach to address corner cases, although its practical effectiveness remains under scrutiny [4][28]. - There is a consensus that while end-to-end models are usable, they cannot be solely relied upon for production due to their limitations in handling complex scenarios [37][45]. Group 2: Emerging Technologies - New technological directions such as VLA/VLM (Vision-Language Model) and diffusion models are being explored to enhance the capabilities of autonomous driving systems, particularly in complex environments [16][18][42]. - The integration of world models is recognized as essential for improving data generation and model training, addressing the high costs associated with real data collection [42][49]. - The industry is also focusing on closed-loop simulations to validate models before deployment, which is crucial for ensuring safety and reliability [44][48]. Group 3: Challenges and Gaps - A significant challenge remains in effectively addressing corner cases, with many companies still struggling to demonstrate robust performance in these scenarios [11][33]. - There is a noted gap between academic research and industrial application, particularly in data sharing and validation of new models like VLA [4][28]. - The efficiency of models is a critical concern, as larger models may not meet latency requirements while smaller models may lack necessary capabilities [5][37]. Group 4: Future Directions - The future of autonomous driving technology is expected to focus on enhancing safety, user experience, and comprehensive scene coverage, with a shift towards data-driven approaches [26][30]. - The industry is likely to see a transition from algorithm-centric development to data-driven efficiency, emphasizing the importance of robust data operations [26][30]. - There is an ongoing debate about whether to deepen expertise in autonomous driving or pivot towards embodied intelligence, with both fields offering unique opportunities [21][41].

Core Viewpoint - Horizon Robotics aims to build a foundational platform that empowers various robotic applications, positioning itself as a leader in the robotics era, particularly in the automotive sector [4][10]. Group 1: Company Milestones - Horizon Robotics celebrated its 10th anniversary on June 1, marking its evolution from being the first Chinese company focused on deep neural network computing solutions to becoming the largest mass-production intelligent driving technology company in China [4]. - The company is set to officially list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on October 24, 2024, achieving the largest IPO for a Chinese tech company since 2022 and the fastest entry into the Hang Seng Tech Index [4]. - Horizon has been included in the FTSE Global Equity Index Series, effective June 20, 2024, enhancing its visibility to global investors [4]. Group 2: Market Position and Collaborations - Horizon has established partnerships with over 40 automotive manufacturers, including the top ten Chinese car companies, and has achieved over 8 million units of pre-installed production [12][14]. - The company holds a market share exceeding 40% in the Chinese OEM Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) market for 2024, maintaining its position as the leading supplier of intelligent driving solutions [14]. - Horizon's technology is currently integrated into one out of every three intelligent vehicles in China, with expectations to surpass 10 million units shipped by the end of the year [12][14]. Group 3: Technological Innovations - Horizon Robotics has consistently focused on the integration of hardware and software, achieving over 1000 times improvement in computing performance over the past decade [23][25]. - The company has introduced significant advancements in its core algorithms, including the end-to-end autonomous driving model UniAD and the next-generation Vision Mamba model, which has gained recognition in the AI research community [24]. - Horizon emphasizes the importance of continuous technological breakthroughs to establish a long-term competitive advantage, with a commitment to high R&D investment, projected at approximately 5 billion yuan for 2024 [21][25]. Group 4: Future Vision - The long-term vision of Horizon Robotics, referred to as "Horizon 2.0," focuses on expanding into the general robotics field, with automotive applications being the initial focus [10][19]. - The company aims to leverage its technology to enhance automation capabilities in various sectors, including elder care, household service robots, agriculture, manufacturing, and logistics [10]. - Horizon's strategy includes deepening collaborations with a wide range of partners to drive advancements in intelligent driving and ensure safer, more efficient transportation solutions for everyone [19].

Core Viewpoint - The company is a leading player in the domestic third-party intelligent driving chip and solution market, with advanced integrated hardware and software technology, strategic positioning, and business model [1] Company Positioning - The company is positioned as an algorithm software company disguised as a chip manufacturer, focusing on intelligent driving solutions, aiming to become the Wintel of the robotic era [1] - The company has grown into the leading third-party intelligent driving solution provider in China since shifting its strategy in 2019 [1] - The company’s full-stack hardware and software products include chips, underlying software (BPU and toolchain), and algorithms, with the Zhengcheng series of intelligent driving chips holding the largest market share domestically [1] Financial Performance - The company is expected to deliver approximately 2.9 million units in 2024, with total revenue projected at 2.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.6%, and a gross margin of 77.3% [1] - Revenue from technology licensing and service business is expected to reach 1.65 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 92% [1] - Revenue for 2025 is projected to reach 3.41 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 43.1%, and 5.8 billion yuan in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 70.1% [3] Industry Trends - The intelligent driving sector is experiencing a shift towards increased penetration and self-sufficiency in the supply chain, which is becoming a key competitive factor in the automotive industry [2] - The penetration rate of mid-to-high-end intelligent driving configurations in passenger vehicles is expected to rise significantly, with new vehicle penetration projected to increase from approximately 10% in 2024 [2] Competitive Advantages - The company’s core competitive advantage lies in its unique integrated hardware and software model, which covers high-tech barriers and high-value-added segments of the industry [2] - The company is well-positioned to establish market dominance as the trend of intelligent driving equity develops [2] Investment Value - The market's perception of the company's investment value is primarily focused on its leading position in self-sufficient intelligent driving chips, despite concerns about potential limitations from OEMs developing their own chips [2] - The company’s intelligent driving software algorithm capabilities may be undervalued, with the HSD high-end intelligent driving solution expected to reshape market perceptions in 2025 [2] Future Growth Potential - The company is expected to achieve a compound annual growth rate of 50% over the next 3-5 years, with total revenue projected to reach 12 billion yuan by 2028 and net profit exceeding 1 billion yuan [3] - Long-term projections suggest that if the company can achieve 6 million units of high-end intelligent driving solutions and a 20%-25% global market share in mid-to-low-end intelligent driving, revenue could reach 30 billion yuan, resulting in nearly 10 billion yuan in profit [3]

地平线机器人-W系列 车中旭霞 智能驾驶芯片深度 《 智能驾驶芯片行业专题-智能驾驶进入快车道，地平线机器人-W和黑芝麻智能的投资价值分析 》——20250207 公司点评 《 地平线机器人-W（09660.HK）-2024年收入同比增长54%，智能平权时代征程6系列芯片加速放量》 ——20250328 《地平线机器人-W（09660.HK）-地平线征程6量产上车，共启全民智驾时代新篇》 ——20250309 核心观点 2024年公司实现营业收入23.8亿元，同比增长54% 2024年，地平线机器人-W实现总收入为23.8亿元，同比增长53.6%；净利润为23.5亿元，2023年为-67.39亿元，主要系 优先股及其他金融负债的公允价值变动收益46.77亿元影响（2023年为-47.6亿元）。2024年公司经调整经营亏损14.95 亿，相比2023年的16.87亿元有所收窄。 分业务来看， 2024年，汽车解决方案收入23.12亿元，同比增加57.2%，1）汽 车产品解决方案收入6.64亿元，同比增加31.2%，主要系公司全年交付量增加所推动；2）授权及服务业务收入16.58亿 元，同比增加70.9%，主要是 ...