The race is on to dominate the humanoids market in China with dozens of startups vying to take the lead. But is the development frenzy hurting innovation instead?More from @BelleDroulers in the full episode of Bloomberg Tech: Asia https://t.co/Aje3DmddTZ https://t.co/2qb34bY1MP ...

August 11, 2025 05:29 AM GMT Humanoids | Asia Pacific Beijing Sets Model for Intelligent Robot Supporting Policies Key Takeaways Key policies include: Also, Beijing recently opened the Robomall ( Exhibit 1 ) and Robot Restaurant ( Exhibit 2 ) to showcase different robots (from industrials to household), building sales channel and allowing public to interact with robots. M Update Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ Sheng Zhong Equity Analyst Sheng.Zhong@morganstanley.com +852 2239-7821 Carlos Chai Research Associat ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total sales for the quarter were $1.17 billion, down less than 1% from last year, with organic sales down 2.5% due to lower demand in both segments, partially offset by higher pricing [6][15] - Adjusted EBITDA margins were 17.7%, and adjusted EPS was $1.42, both below prior year levels due to lower volumes, higher tariff costs, and unfavorable currency [7][15] - Free cash flow generated was $78 million, with a quarterly dividend raised by 3% and 340,000 shares repurchased [8][27] Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - Engineered Bearings sales were $777 million, down 0.8% from last year, with lower end market demand in Europe and The Americas, offset by higher revenue in Asia [22] - Industrial Motion sales were $396 million, down 0.7%, with organic decline of 5.9% due to lower demand, although linear motion platform saw growth driven by new business wins [23][25] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - In Asia Pacific, sales were up 2%, led by growth in China, while The Americas saw a decline of 3% and EMEA was down 5% [16][17] - The overall market environment remains stable, but there are signs of softness in industrial sectors, particularly in Europe and North America [9][17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on managing costs and driving structural cost actions to contribute to margin expansion over time, with plans to complete three plant closures in the second half of the year [10][12] - Timken is investing in high-growth applications within the automation sector, including industrial robotics and factory automation, to capitalize on market trends [13][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed a cautious outlook for the second half of the year due to trade uncertainties, but remains optimistic about 2026, expecting industrial markets to expand as trade stabilizes [9][11] - The company is confident in its ability to mitigate tariff impacts and anticipates positive contributions from backlog growth and pricing actions [10][12] Other Important Information - The CEO search is ongoing, with strong interest in the role, and the board is confident in identifying a new leader soon [13][14] - The company continues to pursue M&A opportunities, particularly bolt-on acquisitions, even during the CEO transition [78] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you unpack the trend to the organic volume guide? - Management indicated a cautious approach for the second half due to trade uncertainties, despite stable market conditions [36][38] Question: What are your thoughts on humanoid robots and their potential? - The company is working on applications for humanoid robots, but expects it to be a long-term play with modest revenue growth in the near term [39][41] Question: What were month-by-month orders through Q2? - Orders have been improving, and July sales rates are in line with the midpoint of guidance, indicating a cautious but positive outlook [47][48] Question: Can you provide an update on discussions with auto OEMs? - Discussions are ongoing, with expectations for some margin uplift in 2026, but no immediate impact anticipated [52][53] Question: How are inventory levels affecting distribution? - Inventory levels are currently good, but there is caution due to potential market weakness, particularly in discretionary spending areas [63][66] Question: What is the outlook for wind energy demand? - Demand in wind energy has improved, particularly in Asia, but growth may be muted in the second half due to pull-ahead spending [68][69] Question: Are there any market share issues or pricing competition? - Management stated that they are not losing market share and expect pricing to continue to rise, which will help recover costs [106][109]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "In-Line" [6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the need for the U.S. to enhance its manufacturing capabilities, particularly in robotics and autonomous vehicles, drawing parallels to the G.I. Bill of 1944 which supported workforce integration for veterans [3][4]. - China's manufacturing dominance, with a 29% share of global manufacturing compared to the U.S.'s 17% as of 2023, serves as both a wake-up call and a model for the U.S. to follow [4]. - The report highlights the importance of attracting and retaining skilled talent in the automotive sector, especially as companies like General Motors and Ford transition towards AI-enabled robotics [11]. Summary by Sections Historical Context - The G.I. Bill provided various benefits to veterans, establishing a foundation for workforce integration that continues to influence employment programs today [3]. - The Lincoln Technical Institute was founded in 1946 to help veterans transition their military skills into civilian careers, including automotive training [4]. Current Manufacturing Landscape - U.S. manufacturing as a percentage of GDP has declined from 28% in 1948 to less than 10% today, indicating a significant shift in the industry [4]. - The report notes that the U.S. must revitalize national policies to develop human talent necessary for the future of manufacturing, particularly in the physical AI economy [12]. Implications for Major Automakers - General Motors and Ford face challenges in attracting new talent as they evolve towards AI and robotics, with competition from tech companies intensifying [11]. - The experience of GM and Ford in China over the past four decades may provide valuable insights as the industry progresses [11]. Industry Ratings - The report includes specific ratings for various companies within the automotive sector, with notable mentions such as: - Ford Motor Company: Equal-weight [75] - General Motors Company: Equal-weight [75] - Tesla Inc: Overweight [75]

Investment Rating - Industry View: In-Line [6] Core Insights - Humanoids can address pain points by providing lower deployment costs for long-tail cases where industrial robots are not economically viable. They are expected to deliver emotional value over the next decade [2] - Initial adoption scenarios for humanoids include box picking and 3C assembling, where they can help manufacturers reduce costs without competing with other robots like AGVs and AMRs. Delivery applications may also see humanoid integration within the next five years [3] - Key differentiators among integrators will be supply chain management and integration capabilities. A thorough understanding of components, whether through self-development or customization, is crucial for effective model development. Poor quality inputs can hinder humanoid performance [4][9] Summary by Sections - **Humanoid Adoption**: Humanoids are expected to adapt to complex environments and automate advanced tasks, solving many corner cases for broader applications. The U.S. has advantages in synthetic data and algorithms, while China's supply chain and government support may provide a long-term edge [9] - **Industry Players**: Insights from speakers from companies like UBTECH, Dobot, EngineAI, Flexiv, and Meritco Services highlight the importance of data collection from popular products to enhance generalization capabilities [9] - **Investment Opportunities**: The report covers various companies in the industrial sector, with ratings indicating potential investment opportunities. For example, China State Construction Engineering and Sany Heavy Industry are rated Overweight, suggesting expected performance above the average [57][59]