Norsk Hydro Investor Day 2025 Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Norsk Hydro (OTCPK:NHYD.Y) - **Event**: Investor Day 2025 - **Date**: November 27, 2025 - **Location**: London Key Industry Insights - **Strategic Focus**: The theme for the day was "Strategic Discipline: Securing Long-Term Value Creation" with a focus on Hydro's strategic direction towards 2030 [2][3] - **Market Conditions**: The company is navigating unpredictable market conditions influenced by geopolitical conflicts, climate change, and trade tensions, particularly in the aluminum sector [6][7][8] Financial Performance - **Return on Capital**: Hydro expects to exceed its target for return on capital employed for the year [9] - **Cost Savings**: The strategic workforce reduction is projected to yield annual savings of approximately NOK 1 billion starting in 2026 [9] - **CapEx Adjustment**: CapEx guidance was adjusted down by NOK 1.5 billion due to a slower market [10] Strategic Developments - **Recycling Capacity**: Hydro has achieved an installed post-consumer scrap capacity of 860,000 tons, meeting the lower end of its 2030 target ahead of schedule [10] - **Decarbonization Efforts**: The company anticipates a 15% reduction in CO2 emissions for the year, surpassing its 10% target [12] - **Long-term Agreements**: Hydro entered a long-term offtake agreement with NKT for 274,000 tons of Hydro REDUXA through 2033 [12] Market Dynamics - **Alumina Demand**: Steady growth in alumina demand is expected, primarily driven by new capacity in Asia, particularly India and Indonesia [13] - **Bauxite Supply Risks**: There is a concentration risk in bauxite supply, with 95% of African bauxite coming from Guinea, which poses a geopolitical risk [14] - **Aluminum Demand Drivers**: The energy transition and increased defense spending are expected to drive aluminum demand significantly [17][18] Regulatory Environment - **CBAM Impact**: The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) is expected to increase European premiums by around 40%, which could benefit Hydro if implemented effectively [22][23] - **Supply Constraints**: Supply constraints outside Europe are becoming clearer, with China's capacity cap and potential smelter closures affecting material flows [22] Operational Challenges - **Market Volatility**: The extrusion market has faced significant downturns, with demand softer than expected, leading to necessary operational consolidations [35][60] - **Recycling Margins**: Recycling margins have been under pressure, particularly in Europe, while the U.S. market remains healthier due to lower scrap prices [36] Future Outlook - **Growth Potential**: Hydro aims to capture market share in low-carbon aluminum solutions, with a focus on strategic partnerships and long-term commercial agreements [34][55] - **Investment in Technology**: Continued investments in sorting technology and recycling capabilities are expected to enhance operational efficiency and profitability [38] Conclusion - **Integrated Value Chain**: Hydro's integrated value chain from mining to recycling positions it favorably in a market increasingly focused on sustainability and low-carbon solutions [26][27] - **Commitment to Decarbonization**: The company remains committed to its decarbonization roadmap and aims to exceed its 2030 targets, reflecting a strong alignment with market demands for greener products [45][51]

Core Insights - Hydro is executing its 2030 strategy effectively, achieving strong results despite market uncertainties, with a focus on green transition opportunities and investments in electric infrastructure [1][3][4] Strategic Direction - In 2023, Hydro launched its strategy to lead the green aluminium transition, emphasizing renewable energy as a critical component in navigating complex market conditions [3][4] - The company aims to consolidate its Extrusions operations by closing five European plants to enhance competitiveness, with a restructuring cost of NOK 1.9 billion and expected annual savings of NOK 0.5 billion from 2027 [4][8] Financial Flexibility and Cost Management - Hydro is implementing a strategic workforce and cost reduction program, targeting a reduction of approximately 750 white-collar positions, with expected annual savings of around NOK 1 billion from 2026 [5][8] - A new NOK 6.5 billion improvement program was launched in 2024 to enhance resilience and accelerate value creation, with NOK 1.2 billion in improvements anticipated for 2025, exceeding the initial target [6][8] Capital Allocation - Capital allocation targets for 2025 and 2026 have been reduced to NOK 13.5 billion from NOK 15 billion, with the removal of additional annual flexibility of NOK 1–2 billion [7][8] - The 2030 EBITDA target for Extrusions has been revised down from NOK 10-12 billion to NOK 8-10 billion due to market conditions and reduced capital allocation [8] Recycling and Extrusions Growth - Hydro is strengthening its position in Recycling, with a target of reaching 850 kt of post-consumer scrap capacity by the end of 2025, contributing to its decarbonization goals [10][11] - The adjusted 2030 earnings target for Recycling has been lowered to NOK 5–6 billion, reflecting current market conditions [11][12] Renewable Power Investments - Hydro approved its largest hydropower investment in over two decades, the Illvatn pumped storage project, costing NOK 2.5 billion and expected to add 48 MW of capacity [14] - The company has secured long-term renewable power agreements totaling approximately 4.16 TWh, enhancing its power portfolio [15] Decarbonization Efforts - Hydro is on track to achieve a 15 percent CO2 reduction by the end of 2025, surpassing its initial 10 percent target [16] - The company aims to halve non-GHG emissions by 2030 and is enhancing transparency through various initiatives [17] Community Engagement and Education - Hydro supports over 300 community projects and is progressing towards its goal of educating 500,000 people by 2030, having already reached 250,000 [18][19] Financial Performance - Hydro's adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 to Q3 2025 was NOK 31 billion, an increase from NOK 22.4 billion in 2024, with a robust adjusted RoaCE of 13.5 percent over the past five years [22] - The company expects stable net operating capital, with guidance set at NOK 30 billion for year-end 2025 and 2026 [23]

Financial Performance - Hydro's adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was NOK 9,516 million, a significant increase from NOK 5,411 million in the same quarter last year, driven by higher alumina and aluminium prices, along with positive currency effects [1][17] - The net income for Q1 2025 amounted to NOK 5,861 million, which included a NOK 1,324 million unrealized derivative gain and impairment charges of NOK 282 million [18] - Adjusted EBITDA for Bauxite & Alumina rose from NOK 804 million to NOK 5,135 million, primarily due to higher alumina prices and lower raw material costs [12] - Adjusted EBITDA for Aluminium Metal increased from NOK 1,965 million to NOK 2,546 million, supported by higher all-in metal prices and lower carbon and energy costs [14] Market Dynamics - Global primary aluminium consumption increased by 1.5 percent year-over-year in Q1 2025, with a 1.7 percent rise in demand outside China [4][14] - The automotive sector faced challenges with lower light vehicle production in Europe, impacting aluminium demand, although this was somewhat offset by increased production of electric vehicles [4][16] - The U.S. trade policy has expanded Section 232 tariffs, but Hydro's exposure to aluminium tariffs is limited due to domestic sourcing and pass-through pricing [3][4] Strategic Initiatives - Hydro is revising down its 2025 annual adjusted EBITDA outlook due to uncertain markets, with estimates ranging from NOK 3.5 billion to NOK 4.5 billion [5] - The company is implementing firm measures to optimize its portfolio and cut costs, including restructuring efforts and the closure of certain facilities [5][6] - Hydro is investing NOK 1.65 billion in a new wire rod casthouse at its Karmøy smelter, expected to begin production in 2028, alongside a long-term offtake agreement with NKT valued at approximately EUR 1 billion [10][11] Recycling and Sustainability - Hydro is committed to cutting hot metal costs by USD 20–30 per tonne by 2030 in its recycling segment, with one-third of the targeted reductions expected to be realized in 2025 [8] - A new EUR 180 million recycling plant is under construction in Torija, Spain, which will enhance the company's capacity to recycle post-consumer scrap [8] - Hydro is accelerating the commercialization of low-carbon and recycled aluminium, collaborating with customers to integrate these materials into their products [9]