25 Nov 2025 03:36:00 ET │ 9 pages China Materials What's New at 2025 China Materials Tour: Meeting with SMM Aluminum Expert CITI'S TAKE We hosted the 2025 China Materials Tour and met with an aluminum expert from SMM on 17th Nov. Mr. LIU Xiaolei, chief aluminum analyst of SMM, attended the meeting. Mr. Liu estimates China should extend the deficit in front of aluminium in 2026, with an estimated net import vol at ~2.5mn tons. The continual demand growth, together with the capacity cap, should support the al ...

Core Viewpoint - Rio Tinto plans to reduce output at its Yarwun alumina refinery by 40% starting October 2026 to extend the plant's operational life to 2035, amounting to a reduction of approximately 1.2 million tonnes of alumina annually, while ensuring customer supply commitments remain unaffected [1][2]. Company Summary - The decision to cut production is described as difficult but necessary, aimed at preserving future options for the site and maintaining its economic contribution, with substantial investment required for the refinery [2]. - High costs related to power, labor, and capital are challenging alumina processing in Australia, compounded by increasing low-cost supply from Indonesia and China, which is pressuring margins [2]. - The current alumina prices are significantly lower than the peak of $800 per tonne experienced last year, with Rio's production cut representing only 1% of the global alumina market, which is approximately 140 million tonnes [2]. Industry Summary - Alumina prices have been under consistent downward pressure due to increased domestic capacity in China and other parts of Asia, with the CRU's Atlantic Basis Price index recently assessed at $340 per tonne, nearing its low of $334 per tonne [3]. - The reduction in output at the Yarwun refinery is driven by tailings-storage constraints, with the existing plant expected to reach capacity by 2031 at current production rates [4]. - The cost of constructing a second tailings area is deemed unviable in the current market conditions [4]. Operational Impact - The output reduction will provide Rio Tinto with an additional four years to explore alternative technical solutions for the refinery, as previous studies on site engineering improvements have been financially daunting [5]. - The reduction will not affect the company's bauxite mines or aluminum smelters, which will continue to operate at full capacity, although approximately 180 of the refinery's 725 jobs are expected to be impacted [6]. - The company plans to utilize the time from the output reduction to test various tailings-management options to extend the life of the existing storage footprint [6][7].

Core Insights - Rio Tinto Group (RIO) will reduce production by 40% at its Yarwun Alumina Refinery starting October 2026 to extend the operation's life until 2035 [1][8] - The production cut will lower alumina output by 1.2 million tons annually, but will not affect customer requirements [4][8] - The company is exploring options for staff redeployment across its Gladstone sites due to the impact on 180 roles [4][8] Production and Operational Impacts - The production reduction allows Rio Tinto time to explore life-extension and modernization options at Yarwun, as the tailings facility is expected to reach capacity by 2031 [3][8] - Other facilities, including bauxite mines and aluminum smelters, will continue to operate at full capacity [3] - Rio Tinto's alumina production is anticipated to be between 7.4 million tons and 7.8 million tons for 2025 [6] Financial Guidance and Performance - Rio Tinto expects Pilbara iron ore shipments at the lower end of 323-338 million tons due to cyclone impacts in Q1 2025 [5] - Bauxite guidance has been increased to 59-61 million tons from 57-59 million tons, indicating higher utilization rates [5] - In the past year, Rio Tinto shares have gained 18.5%, outperforming the industry's growth of 14.2% [7]

By Pratima Desai LONDON (Reuters) -Glencore has cut its stake in Century Aluminum by 10% to 33%, raking in millions following a share price rally ​triggered by U.S. tariffs on aluminium imports and a profit bonanza for local aluminium ‌smelters. U.S. President Donald Trump doubled tariffs on aluminium imports to 50% on June 4 with the aim of incentivising investment ‌in production of the metal in the United States. London-listed Glencore is Century's largest shareholder. It supplies Century with alumina ...

Core Viewpoint - Rio Tinto plans to reduce production at its Yarwun alumina refinery by 40% starting next October to extend the facility's operational life [1] Production Decision - The company has opted not to construct a second waste facility at Yarwun due to the conclusion that the necessary substantial investment is not currently viable [1]

Rio Tinto will almost halve production at its Yarwun Alumina refinery in Australia as a waste stockpile reaches capacity and the company seeks to cut cost while exploring ways extend the plant’s life https://t.co/6SPVLg17cO ...

Summary of Aluminum Corp of China (Chalco) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Aluminum Corp of China (Chalco) - **Ticker**: 2600 HK / 601600 CH Key Financial Results - **3Q25 Earnings**: Reported earnings of RMB 3.8 billion, representing an increase of 8% quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) and 90% year-on-year (y-o-y) [1] - **Sales Volume**: Both alumina and aluminum sales volumes rose slightly by 1% y-o-y [1] - **Alumina Prices**: Increased by 3% q-o-q but decreased by 20% y-o-y [1] - **Aluminum Prices**: Rose by 2% q-o-q and 6% y-o-y [1] - **Revenue**: Flat q-o-q, but gross profit improved significantly due to lower production costs, primarily from cheaper bauxite [1] - **SG&A Expenses**: Declined by 13% y-o-y due to effective cost control [1] Production and Cost Guidance - **Bauxite Production**: Guinea's Boffa mine is ramping up steadily, with a target of approximately 10% y-o-y production growth for 2025 and a self-sufficiency ratio of around 60% [2] - **Cost Advantage**: Estimated cost advantage of RMB 100 per ton for self-mined bauxite compared to imported ore [2] - **Cost Guidance**: - Aluminum all-in cost below RMB 15,000 per ton in 3Q25; electricity cost between RMB 0.44 and 0.45 per kWh [2] - Alumina cash cost below RMB 2,700 per ton in 3Q25, trending lower excluding bauxite [2] - **Capex**: Management revised capital expenditure guidance to RMB 15 billion for 2025 from a previous estimate of RMB 20 billion [2] Market Outlook - **Aluminum Price Outlook**: Expected to remain elevated through 4Q25 to 2026, while alumina prices may remain weak due to rising domestic and imported supply [2] - **Global Market Dynamics**: Favorable conditions due to supply disruptions at Century Aluminum's Nordural smelter in Iceland and South32's Mozal smelter in Mozambique, combined with China's production ceiling of 45 million tons and low inventories [3] - **Policy Support**: "Anti-involution" production discipline is expected to reinforce price stability and profitability [3] Investment Recommendations - **Rating**: Maintain Buy rating on Chalco's H/A shares, viewing the company as a key beneficiary of strong aluminum fundamentals and improving margins [4] - **Target Prices**: - Raised target price for H-share to HKD 11.40 from HKD 7.70, implying a 24% upside [4] - Raised target price for A-share to RMB 11.30 from RMB 10.50, implying a 20% upside [4] Financial Projections - **Earnings Estimates**: Revised earnings estimates up by 18% for 2025, 18% for 2026, and 14% for 2027 [19] - **EPS Projections**: Expected EPS of RMB 0.87 for 2025, RMB 1.03 for 2026, and RMB 1.05 for 2027 [7][20] Risks and Considerations - **Downside Risks**: - Lower-than-expected demand from property completions - New regulations leading to higher production costs - Potential bauxite supply disruptions - Geopolitical risks related to overseas resource acquisitions [23] Additional Insights - **Coal Business**: Contributed approximately 4% of total revenue in 2024, primarily for energy security; no plans to increase investment in coal-related business as the company focuses on renewable energy [22] This summary encapsulates the key points from the conference call regarding Aluminum Corp of China, highlighting financial performance, market outlook, investment recommendations, and associated risks.

Summary of Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) 3Q25 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) - **Stock Ticker**: 2600.HK - **Date of Report**: 27 October 2025 Key Financial Metrics - **Net Profit**: 9M25 net profit at Rmb10.87 billion, up 21% YoY, representing 81% of the 2025E Bloomberg consensus and Citi's full-year forecast [1][1] - **3Q25 Net Profit**: Rmb3.801 billion, +90% YoY and +8% QoQ, largely in line with expectations [1][1] - **Gross Profit**: 3Q25 gross profit at Rmb10.28 billion, +55% YoY and +7% QoQ, attributed to higher aluminum and alumina prices and lower production costs [1][1][3] - **Free Cash Flow (FCF)**: Increased to Rmb9.0 billion, +34% YoY and +56% QoQ [8][8] - **Operating Cash Flow (OCF)**: Rmb11.1 billion, +10% YoY and +39% QoQ [4][4] - **Net Gearing**: Improved to 19% from 30% at the end of 2024 [4][4] Production and Sales - **Alumina Production**: 5.63 million tons, +1% YoY and +7% QoQ [2][2] - **Aluminum Production**: 2.03 million tons, +2% YoY and flat QoQ [2][2] - **External Sales of Self-Produced Aluminum**: 2.04 million tons, +1% YoY and flat QoQ [2][2] Price Trends - **Alumina Spot Price**: Rmb3,148 per ton, down 20% YoY but up 3% QoQ [3][3] - **SHFE Aluminum Price**: Rmb20,717 per ton, up 6% YoY and up 3% QoQ [3][3] Valuation and Investment Outlook - **Target Price**: HK$7.47 per share, with a current price of HK$9.19, indicating an expected share price return of -18.7% [6][6] - **Expected Dividend Yield**: 3.7% [6][6] - **P/B Ratio**: 1.9x for 2025E [8][8] - **P/E Ratio**: 10.7x for 2025E [8][8] Risks - **Downside Risks**: 1. Lower-than-expected aluminum and alumina prices 2. Higher-than-expected costs 3. Higher-than-expected impairment loss 4. Potential loosening of supply cut policies by the Chinese government if aluminum prices overshoot [14][14][16][16] Conclusion - Chalco's strong financial performance in 3Q25, characterized by significant profit growth and improved cash flow, positions the company favorably for future shareholder returns. However, potential risks related to price fluctuations and government policies should be monitored closely. The investment outlook remains cautious with a maintained "Buy" rating despite the target price indicating a potential decline from current levels [1][8].

Alcoa (NYSE:AA) 2025 Investor Day Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Alcoa Corporation - **Event**: Investor Day 2025 - **Date**: October 30, 2025 Key Industry Insights - **Aluminum Market Outlook**: The long-term outlook for aluminum is positive, driven by growth in demand and constrained supply, particularly in North America and Europe [34][41] - **Supply Constraints**: The market is experiencing constrained supply due to Chinese production caps and rising capital costs outside of China, which is a shift from the previous two decades where supply was more abundant [35][41] - **Investment in Growth**: Alcoa has opportunities for disciplined growth, highlighted by the successful acquisition of Alumina Limited in 2024, which has positioned the company favorably within the industry [35][39] Financial Performance - **EBITDA**: Alcoa reported $1.6 billion in EBITDA for 2024, indicating strong financial health [36] - **Debt Management**: The company has monetized $1 billion worth of assets, strengthening its balance sheet, with a net debt target of $1 billion to $1.5 billion [40] - **Shareholder Returns**: Alcoa has returned $1 billion to shareholders over the last five years, demonstrating a commitment to shareholder value [40] Operational Excellence - **Production Capacity**: Alcoa produces approximately 40 million metric tons of bauxite, 10 million metric tons of alumina, and 2 million metric tons of aluminum annually [36] - **Safety Initiatives**: The company has achieved a 75% reduction in serious injuries in North America and a 50% reduction in serious chemical burns across its refining network [62][75] - **Alcoa Business System (ABS)**: The ABS has been modernized to improve operational performance, leading to increased production and efficiency across various sites [61][63] Strategic Vision and Culture - **New Vision**: Alcoa's vision is to "build a legacy of excellence for future generations," which aims to engage employees at all levels [86] - **Cultural Shift**: The company is focused on fostering a high-performance culture, emphasizing accountability, empowerment, and continuous improvement [89][90] - **Employee Engagement**: Initiatives such as "leadership time in field" are designed to enhance engagement and safety by having leaders spend more time with frontline employees [52][53] Technological Innovations - **Investment in Technology**: Alcoa continues to invest in breakthrough technologies, including AI applications and robotics, to enhance operational efficiency and safety [46][65] - **Sustainability Efforts**: The company is committed to green products, with 86% of its energy sourced from renewable sources, positioning itself well for the green transition [45] Regional Operations - **Global Presence**: Alcoa operates in 25 locations across 8 countries, with a focus on North America and Europe, which are expected to face aluminum supply deficits in the future [36][41] - **Operational Improvements**: Incremental improvements in production have been noted across various regions, with specific examples of success in North America and Australia [68][69] Conclusion - **Future Outlook**: Alcoa is well-positioned for future growth with a strong balance sheet, disciplined capital allocation, and a commitment to operational excellence and safety [40][48][75] - **Engagement with Stakeholders**: The company emphasizes the importance of stakeholder engagement and environmental responsibility, particularly in sensitive areas like the Amazon rainforest [78][70]

Financial Performance & Strategy - Alcoa's 2024 revenue was $12 billion, with net income attributable to Alcoa at $60 million, or $026 earnings per share[14] - Adjusted EBITDA, excluding special items, was $16 billion, with adjusted earnings per share at $135 in 2024[14] - Alcoa aims to maintain adjusted net debt between $10 billion and $15 billion[168] - The company has $500 million remaining in share buyback authorization and a quarterly dividend of $010 per share[169] Operational Excellence & Innovation - Alcoa's bauxite production reached 38 million dry metric tons, alumina production was 10 million metric tons, and aluminum production was 22 million metric tons in 2024[14] - A 75% reduction in serious injuries in North America operations was achieved in 2025 compared to a 2022 baseline, driven by ABS routines[54] - The Deschambault smelter is on track to achieve its 16th consecutive year of record aluminum production in 2025[59] Market Outlook & Growth - Global total aluminum consumption is expected to grow from 107 million metric tons in 2025 to 134 million metric tons in 2035, a CAGR of +23%[19] - Alumina demand is projected to increase, particularly outside of China, growing by 136 million metric tons (23%) from 2025 to 2035[131] - Alcoa expects a +1 million metric tons increase in alumina production and a $15-$20/ton reduction in unit cost at Australian refineries upon full realization of higher bauxite grades by 2030[80]