Key Takeaways AA shares jumped 93.5% in six months, outperforming peers on strong aluminum and alumina demand.Alcoa is benefiting from higher aluminum prices, tariffs, and rising production across key segments.Earnings estimates for AA moved higher, with 2026 projections surging on improved growth outlook.Shares of Alcoa Corporation (AA) have been showing impressive gains of late, rising 93.5% in the past six months. The alumina, aluminum and bauxite products provider has outperformed the industry and S&P 5 ...

Action | 07 Jan 2026 10:23:57 ET │ 15 pages Aluminum Corporation of China (2600.HK) Benefit from Hiking Aluminum Price, Maintain as Top Pick CITI'S TAKE We update our Chalco model to factor in updated aluminum and alumina price forecast. We revise our 2025E/26E/27E net profit forecast by +2%/+4%/+7% to Rmb14.0/19.1/21.9bn and revise TP for H-share to HK$15.94 (from HK$12.41). We expect Chalco to benefit from higher for longer aluminum price and aluminum margin. Maintain as Top Pick. We will host a 2026 busi ...

Key Takeaways Market uncertainty amid geopolitical risks, policy questions and an unclear Fed rate path favor value stocks.Stocks were screened for earnings yield above 10%, liquidity, $5 prices and EPS growth versus the S&P 500.AAUC, AA, SBLK and PHIN show strong 2026 sales and EPS growth estimates, with upward EPS revisions.U.S. equities ended 2025 on a strong note, with the S&P 500 rising about 16%, but the outlook is turning complex. Geopolitical risks are back in focus after President Donald Trump anno ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - to medium - term, before the New Year's Day, funds take profits, causing base metals to rise and then fall. However, the logic of weak US dollar expectation and supply disruption concerns remains unchanged. After copper, aluminum, and tin stop falling, low - buying and long - position opportunities can be considered. In the long - term, there are still expectations of potential incremental stimulus policies in China, and supply disruption issues for copper, aluminum, and tin still exist, with expectations of tightening supply and demand, so the price trends of copper, aluminum, and tin are optimistic [1]. - Different metals have different price trends: copper prices are expected to be strong due to strong supply contraction expectations; alumina prices are under pressure with weak cost support; aluminum prices are expected to be oscillating and strong due to positive macro expectations; aluminum alloy prices are expected to be oscillating and strong with cost support; zinc prices will oscillate with non - ferrous metals due to the divergence of domestic and foreign inventory trends; lead prices may weaken in supply and demand despite rebounding with non - ferrous metals; nickel prices will oscillate due to Indonesian policy expectations; stainless steel prices will oscillate as nickel iron prices rise; tin prices will oscillate at a high level due to the resilience of rigid demand [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1行情观点 3.1.1 Copper - Information: China's copper smelters set the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee benchmark at $0/ton and $0/pound. In November 2025, China's electrolytic copper production increased month - on - month and year - on - year, and the cumulative increase from January to November was 11.76%. On December 29, the spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was at a discount to the contract [7]. - Logic: The US economy is resilient, and the Fed's interest - rate cut and balance - sheet expansion support copper prices. Copper mine supply disruptions increase, and the long - term processing fee hits a record low. Chinese copper smelters plan to reduce production, strengthening the supply contraction expectation. Demand is weak in the off - season, and LME's position limit reduces the risk of a short squeeze [7]. - Outlook: Copper prices are expected to be oscillating and strong [7]. 3.1.2 Alumina - Information: On December 29, the northern spot comprehensive price of alumina rose, and the national weighted index also increased. The alumina warehouse receipt decreased [7][8]. - Logic: Macro sentiment amplifies price fluctuations. High - cost production capacity fluctuates, but the supply contraction is insufficient, and the inventory is still accumulating. Raw material prices are weak, and the cost support is general. The warehouse receipt is being destocked, but there is pressure on the upper side of the price [8]. - Outlook: Alumina prices are expected to oscillate [8]. 3.1.3 Aluminum - Information: On December 29, the average price of SMM AOO aluminum increased, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and aluminum rods rose. In November 2025, China's unforged aluminum and aluminum product exports decreased year - on - year but increased month - on - month. South32 raised the offer price of aluminum ingot premiums to Japan [9]. - Logic: The macro outlook is positive. Domestic production capacity is high, while overseas power shortages may tighten supply in the long term. High aluminum prices suppress demand, and inventory accumulates [9][10]. - Outlook: In the short - term, aluminum prices are expected to be oscillating and strong. In the medium - term, the price center may rise [10]. 3.1.4 Aluminum Alloy - Information: On December 29, the price of Baotai ADC12 increased, and the warehouse receipt increased. An Indonesian electrolytic aluminum project started trial production [11]. - Logic: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, providing strong cost support. The weekly operating rate increased, but there are still risks of production cuts in the medium - term. Demand may weaken marginally after the end of the automotive seasonal sales rush [11]. - Outlook: In the short - and medium - term, aluminum alloy prices are expected to be oscillating and strong [11]. 3.1.5 Zinc - Information: On December 29, the spot prices of zinc in different regions had different premiums to the main contract. As of December 29, SMM's seven - region zinc ingot inventory decreased. In November 2025, China's zinc concentrate imports increased [12][13]. - Logic: The macro outlook is positive. Short - term zinc ore supply is tight, and smelter profits decline, reducing zinc ingot production. Domestic consumption is in the off - season, and demand is average. In the short - term, zinc ingot exports will continue, and social inventory may decline. In the long - term, supply may increase while demand growth is limited [13]. - Outlook: In the short - term, zinc prices will oscillate at a high level. In the long - term, there is a possibility of price decline [13]. 3.1.6 Lead - Information: On December 29, the price of waste electric vehicle batteries increased, and the price of lead ingots also rose. The social inventory of lead ingots decreased, and the futures warehouse receipt increased slightly [14]. - Logic: The spot premium decreased, and the original - recycled price difference increased. The price of waste batteries rose, expanding the smelting profit of recycled lead, and production is expected to increase. Demand from electric bicycles weakens, and the battery factory's operating rate declines marginally [14][15]. - Outlook: Lead prices are expected to oscillate [15]. 3.1.7 Nickel - Information: On December 29, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipt increased, and the LME nickel inventory decreased. The average price of high - nickel pig iron rose. Indonesia plans to revise the nickel ore RKAB and the mineral benchmark price calculation formula [15][16][17]. - Logic: Domestic nickel production decreased in November, but Indonesian production increased, and overall supply pressure remains. Demand is in the off - season, and the market is weak. If Indonesia's RKAB plan is implemented, the supply - demand balance will improve [18]. - Outlook: Nickel prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to policy implementation [18]. 3.1.8 Stainless Steel - Information: The stainless steel futures warehouse receipt decreased. The average price of high - nickel pig iron rose. Some Indonesian nickel mines face fines [19]. - Logic: Nickel iron prices rise, providing cost support. Stainless steel production is expected to decline in December. Inventory may accumulate in the off - season, and the warehouse receipt is at a low level [20]. - Outlook: Stainless steel prices are expected to oscillate, and attention should be paid to Indonesian policy changes [21]. 3.1.9 Tin - Information: On December 29, the LME tin warehouse receipt increased, and the Shanghai tin warehouse receipt decreased. The spot price of tin ingots rose [21]. - Logic: Tin supply is a major concern. Chinese imports from Myanmar increase, but there are still risks. Indonesian supply may be restricted in Q1 2026. African production is limited. Demand is expected to increase due to the global economic environment and the growth of related industries [21]. - Outlook: Tin prices are expected to be oscillating and strong [21]. 3.2行情监测 - Copper: No specific monitoring information provided [24]. - Alumina: No specific monitoring information provided [39]. - Aluminum: No specific monitoring information provided [52]. - Aluminum Alloy: No specific monitoring information provided [65]. - Zinc: No specific monitoring information provided [76]. - Lead: No specific monitoring information provided [89]. - Nickel: No specific monitoring information provided [103]. - Stainless Steel: No specific monitoring information provided [119]. - Tin: No specific monitoring information provided [129]. 3.3中信期货商品指数 - On December 29, 2025, the comprehensive index was 2339.89, down 0.59%; the commodity 20 index was 2687.93, down 0.42%; the industrial products index was 2258.87, down 0.70%. The non - ferrous metals index was 2676.44, with a daily decline of 0.01%, a 5 - day increase of 3.18%, a 1 - month increase of 6.45%, and a year - to - date increase of 15.95% [147][149].

December 26, 2025 12:20 PM GMT Greater China Materials | Asia Pacific Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+ NDRC Encourages M&A in Alumina and Copper Smelting Industry What's new? NDRC released a document promoting the development of traditional industries, including basic materials and major equipment. The report specifically mentions strengthening the management and optimizing the layout of alumina and copper smelting industries. NDRC encourages leading industry players to carry out M&A to increase their productio ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For aluminum, the domestic operating capacity is at a high level approaching the ceiling, and the import window is closed. Although the construction demand is entering the off - season, new energy and automotive aluminum demand provide support. High industry profits and low inventory support prices, but high aluminum prices suppress downstream procurement, and concerns about macro - liquidity tightening lead to high - level fluctuations in the market [3]. - For alumina, the operating capacity is at a historical high with new capacity being gradually put into production. Downstream electrolytic aluminum is squeezed by high costs, leading to reduced demand and price decline. The market may enter a bottom - shock phase [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Aluminum Market Market Situation - The domestic aluminum market shows high - level fluctuations. High prices suppress downstream procurement, and there are concerns about macro - liquidity tightening [3][8]. Supply - Domestic operating capacity is at a high level close to the ceiling, and the import window is closed [3]. Demand - Construction demand is in the off - season, but new energy and automotive aluminum demand provide support [3]. Factors Affecting Price - **Lidofactors**: Clear domestic electrolytic aluminum capacity ceiling policy and insufficient global supply elasticity; low alumina prices maintain high corporate profitability [4]. - **Negative factors**: It is the traditional consumption off - season, high aluminum prices suppress downstream procurement, and there are concerns about Fed policy and macro - liquidity tightening [8]. Alumina Market Market Situation - The alumina market is weak with prices falling below the average cash cost and inventory accumulating [4]. Supply - Operating capacity is at a historical high, and new capacity is being gradually put into production [4]. Demand - Downstream electrolytic aluminum is squeezed by high costs, with some high - cost areas having production - cut expectations, leading to slower demand growth [4]. Factors Affecting Price - **Lidofactors**: Some regional alumina enterprises adjust production due to losses, and there is a short - term increase in domestic anti - cut - throat competition sentiment [5]. - **Negative factors**: New domestic alumina capacity will increase supply pressure, and the expected production cuts in downstream electrolytic aluminum will suppress demand [9]. Upstream Supply Bauxite - Domestic bauxite production and import volume show seasonal patterns, and port inventory also has seasonal changes [21][22]. Alumina - Alumina production, import volume, and inventory show seasonal characteristics. The national and provincial - level weekly operating rates also have corresponding trends [24][26][27]. Electrolytic Aluminum - The production, net import volume, and inventory of electrolytic aluminum show seasonal patterns [32][34][35]. Downstream Demand Product Output - The output of aluminum ingots, aluminum rods, and various aluminum products shows seasonal characteristics [37][40]. Operating Rate - The operating rates of various aluminum products' production show seasonal changes, including weekly and monthly operating rates [44][45][50]. Export - The export volume and profit of unforged aluminum and aluminum products show seasonal patterns [52][53]. End - user Demand - The demand in industries such as construction, automotive, power grid, and new energy shows seasonal characteristics, which affects the demand for aluminum [56][58][61]. Inventory - The inventories of bauxite, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, aluminum rods, and aluminum ingots + aluminum rods show seasonal changes [65][68][70]. Cost and Profit - The prices of raw materials such as bauxite, alumina, pre - baked anodes, and energy sources (coal, natural gas, electricity) show corresponding trends, which affect the cost and profit of electrolytic aluminum [73][74][75].

ab 16 December 2025 Global Research Mining Strategy China Demand: Signals slow in Nov-25 China's commodity demand indicators weaken in Nov-25 November's commodity demand metrics deteriorated further. Retail sales significantly underperformed expectations, marking the weakest result in three years, while the downturn in the property sector worsened. Sustained weakness from here may present downside risks to demand expectations and prices, especially given economic decision makers in China may delay policy un ...

Carlos De Alba from Morgan Stanley sets a price target of $52 for Alcoa Corporation (NYSE: AA), indicating a potential upside of 14.16%.Alcoa trades at a 50% discount to the sector median EV/EBITDA, suggesting room for growth as market conditions improve.Institutional investors, including Federated Hermes Inc. and Arrow Capital Pty Ltd, have increased their stakes in Alcoa, reflecting confidence in the company's future.Alcoa Corporation (NYSE: AA) is a leading player in the industrial products sector, prima ...

Summary of J.P. Morgan Aluminium Dashboard Industry Overview - **Global Aluminium Demand**: Increased by 2% year-to-date (YTD), with China showing a growth of 3% while the rest of the world (RoW) remains flat [1][1] - **China's Production**: Continues to hover just below the 45 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) cap, with net imports of primary aluminium running at 2.5-3 million tonnes per annum [1][1] - **Global Inventories**: Visible inventories are approximately 1,170 kilotonnes (kt), remaining near decade lows, contrasting with rising copper inventories [1][1] - **Alumina Prices**: Down 53% YTD to $314 per tonne, positively impacting smelter margins, with the alumina/aluminium linkage at 11%, near historical lows [1][1] - **Aluminium Prices**: Up 11% YTD, but underperforming copper, which is up 25% [1][1] - **Midwest Premium**: Increased to a near-record ~$1,860 per tonne, close to 70% of the London Metal Exchange (LME) price, incentivizing imports after domestic stockpiles were largely depleted [1][1] - **Market Outlook**: The forward curve is in slight contango, with expectations of a surplus market over the next two years [1][1] Key Companies with Aluminium Exposure - **Overweight Recommendations**: - South32 (S32 AU) - Rio Tinto (RIO AU/RIO LN) - Norsk Hydro (NHY NO) - Press Metal (PMAH MK) [1][1] Future Price Projections - **2026/27 Base Metals Outlook**: Anticipates aluminium prices could reach $3,000 per metric tonne in the first half of 2026 due to higher copper prices and a balanced market, although significant supply growth from Indonesia is expected to undercut prices later in 2026 and beyond [2][2] - **Projected Surplus**: Forecasted surplus of 307 kt and 215 kt in 2026 and 2027 respectively [2][2] Financial Metrics of Key Companies - **Rio Tinto Ltd. (RIO AU)**: - Market Cap: $121.7 billion - EV: $140.1 billion - Price Target: $138.0 (3% upside) - EV/EBITDA: 5.9x for 2025, 5.6x for 2026 - PE: 13.8x for 2025, 12.8x for 2026 - Dividend Yield: 4.3% for 2025, 4.7% for 2026 [5][5] - **Norsk Hydro (NHY NO)**: - Market Cap: $13.9 billion - Price Target: $74.0 (3% upside) - EV/EBITDA: 5.5x for 2025, 5.3x for 2026 - PE: 12.7x for 2025, 10.8x for 2026 - Dividend Yield: 4.2% for 2025, 5.3% for 2026 [5][5] - **Press Metal (PMAH MK)**: - Market Cap: $13.1 billion - Price Target: $7.3 (10% upside) - EV/EBITDA: 17.4x for 2025, 15.6x for 2026 - PE: 25.5x for 2025, 22.9x for 2026 - Dividend Yield: 1.4% for 2025, 1.6% for 2026 [5][5] Global Production and Demand Summary - **China Aluminium Production**: Expected to increase from 35.8 Mt in October 2024 to 36.5 Mt in October 2025, a 2% increase [17][17] - **Global Aluminium Demand**: Projected to rise from 60.3 Mt in 2024 to 61.4 Mt in 2025, a 2% increase [17][17] Additional Insights - **Alumina Production in China**: Expected to rise from 79.8 Mt in 2023 to 83.7 Mt in 2024, with significant month-on-month increases anticipated [19][19] - **Global Market Dynamics**: The aluminium market is experiencing shifts due to varying production rates across regions, with China leading in both production and demand growth [19][19] This summary encapsulates the key insights and projections regarding the aluminium industry and specific companies, providing a comprehensive overview for potential investment considerations.

Summary of the 2025 China Materials Tour: Meeting with SMM Aluminum Expert Industry Overview - **Industry**: Aluminum - **Key Expert**: Mr. Liu Xiaolei, Chief Aluminum Analyst at SMM Core Insights 1. **Aluminum Deficit Forecast**: China is expected to extend its aluminum deficit into 2026, with net imports estimated at approximately 2.5 million tons [1][2] 2. **Aluminum Average Selling Price (ASP)**: The average selling price of aluminum is projected to rise to Rmb 21,200 per ton in FY26, compared to Rmb 20,800 per ton in the current year [1][3] 3. **Supply Dynamics**: - Domestic aluminum capacity is anticipated to increase from 43.9 million tons in FY25 to between 44.5 and 44.6 million tons in FY26 - Overseas aluminum capacity is expected to rise by approximately 500,000 to 600,000 tons in FY26, from 30.4 to 30.5 million tons in FY25 [2] - Global aluminum capacity is assumed to increase by 1 to 1.2 million tons in 2026 [2] 4. **Demand Growth**: Aluminum demand is estimated to grow by an additional 800,000 tons in 2026 [3] 5. **Cost Structure**: - The average cost of aluminum is around Rmb 16,000 per ton, with low-end and high-end aluminum costs at approximately Rmb 14,000 and Rmb 19,000 per ton, respectively [4] - The average cost is expected to remain on a downward trend, with limited downside potential of about Rmb 1,000 per ton [4] 6. **Alumina Market**: - Alumina is currently in a surplus situation, with a capacity of approximately 115 million tons per annum and a surplus level of about 4 to 5 million tons in 2025 [6] - Domestic alumina cost is around Rmb 2,778 per ton, while imported alumina from Indonesia is priced at approximately Rmb 2,800 per ton [8] 7. **Demand Substitution Risks**: There is a risk of demand substitution from steel and magnesium alloys due to high aluminum prices. A 10% increase in aluminum ASP could raise OEM costs by Rmb 200 to 400 per vehicle, which is considered manageable [5] Additional Important Points - The aluminum industry is currently experiencing attractive profit margins due to the supply-demand dynamics and cost structure [4] - The aluminum capacity cap of 45.5 million tons is not expected to be lifted in the next 2 to 3 years, indicating a continued tight supply environment [2]