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Philip Morris' ILUMA Rollout: Will It Power H2 Volume Growth? (Revised)
ZACKS· 2025-08-13 11:31
Core Insights - Philip Morris International (PM) is leveraging its ILUMA platform to sustain momentum in its heated tobacco unit (HTU) through the latter half of 2025, with adjusted in-market sales growth for HTUs reaching 11.4% in Q2 2025 [1][7] - The company has expanded ILUMA into over 30 markets, significantly enhancing market share and user adoption, particularly in Europe and Japan [2][3] Sales and Market Performance - In Q2 2025, HTU sales increased by 11.4%, with Europe growing by 9.1% and Japan by 7.8%, attributed to the rollout of ILUMA i and new consumable products [1][7] - ILUMA's expansion has led to an increase in IQOS HTU market share by 1.2 percentage points to 10.9% in Europe, with over 20% share in key cities across 12 markets [2][7] Future Growth Projections - PMI anticipates smoke-free product volume growth of 12-14% in 2025, with the ILUMA upgrade cycle expected to support continued double-digit HTU growth [3] - The second half of 2025 will focus on maintaining rollout momentum while navigating competitive and regulatory challenges [3] Competitive Landscape - Turning Point Brands reported a significant increase in Modern Oral sales, reaching $30.1 million, and raised its revenue target for 2025 to $100-$110 million, emphasizing flavor innovation and retail presence [4] Valuation and Earnings Estimates - Philip Morris shares have decreased by 5.7% over the past month, contrasting with the industry's growth of 1.3% [5] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for PM is 21.17X, higher than the industry average of 15.36X [8] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PM's earnings per share for 2025 and 2026 has increased by 4 cents and 7 cents, respectively, to $7.49 and $8.39 [9]
Philip Morris' ILUMA Rollout: Will It Power H2 Volume Growth?
ZACKS· 2025-08-12 14:50
Core Insights - Philip Morris International (PM) is leveraging its ILUMA platform to sustain momentum in its heated tobacco unit (HTU) through the latter half of 2025, with adjusted in-market sales growth for HTUs reaching 11.4% in Q2 2025 [1][7] - The company has expanded ILUMA into over 30 markets, enhancing market share and user adoption, particularly in Europe and Japan [2][3] Group 1: Market Performance - In Q2 2025, HTU sales increased by 11.4%, with Europe growing by 9.1% and Japan by 7.8%, attributed to the rollout of ILUMA i and new consumable products [1][7] - ILUMA's expansion contributed to IQOS HTU share rising by 1.2 percentage points to 10.9% in Europe, with over 20% share in key cities across 12 markets [2][7] Group 2: Future Projections - PMI anticipates smoke-free product volume growth of 12-14% in 2025, with the ILUMA upgrade cycle expected to support double-digit HTU gains [3] - The second half of 2025 will focus on maintaining rollout momentum while navigating competitive and regulatory challenges [3] Group 3: Competitive Landscape - Altria Group is preparing for the U.S. commercialization of the IQOS ILUMA platform, targeting select state markets and leveraging the Marlboro brand for adult smoker conversion [4] - Turning Point Brands reported a significant increase in Modern Oral sales, reaching $30.1 million, and raised its revenue target for 2025 to $100-$110 million, emphasizing flavor innovation and retail presence [5] Group 4: Valuation and Earnings Estimates - Philip Morris shares have decreased by 5.7% in the past month, contrasting with the industry's growth of 1.3% [6] - The forward price-to-earnings ratio for PM is 21.17X, higher than the industry's average of 15.36X [9] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for PM's earnings per share for 2025 and 2026 has increased by 4 cents and 7 cents, respectively, to $7.49 and $8.39 [10]