Summary of China Healthcare Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Healthcare - **Survey**: AlphaWise survey conducted with 80 hospital executives in November 2025, focusing on hospital capital expenditures (capex), procedure volumes, and brand preferences for 2026 [1][26] Key Findings Hospital Capex Outlook - **Cautiously Optimistic**: 59% of hospital executives expect higher capex in 2026, up from 43% in 2025, but still below 85% in 2024 [3][51] - **Expected Growth**: Average capex growth projected at 4.7% YoY for 2026, compared to 3.0% for 2025 [3][51] - **Actual Growth in 2025**: Estimated capex growth for 2025 was 5.8% YoY, indicating better-than-expected performance [3][51] - **Key Drivers**: Hospital surplus (69%), patient demand (50%), and local fiscal budgets (44%) are primary factors influencing capex decisions [31] Equipment Spending Trends - **Top Equipment Categories**: Surgical and soft endoscopes expected to see the highest unit growth at 26% and 16% respectively, followed by CT, ultrasound, and CLIA analyzers with high-teens growth [32][93] - **AI and Digitization**: AI, digitization, and cloud capabilities are the top investment priorities, with 84% of executives planning to increase spending in these areas [33][78] Brand Preferences and Market Dynamics - **Domestic Brands**: Mindray and United Imaging maintain strong positions in brand preference, with Mindray expected to gain share in surgical endoscopes and ultrasound [36][38] - **Foreign Brands**: Siemens Healthineers, GE Healthcare, and Philips show mixed performance, with potential share losses due to domestic competition [17][19][20] - **Market Shifts**: United Imaging is expected to gain significant share in CT and MR equipment, while Mindray is anticipated to strengthen its position in various categories [38] Pricing and Procurement - **Pricing Pressures**: Continuous pricing pressure expected in clinical testing, negatively impacting the IVD segment [10][42] - **Procurement Changes**: Increased expectations for centralized procurement and shorter tender cycles, which could lead to downward pricing pressures [30][61][62] Procedure Volume Expectations - **Moderating Growth**: Only 17% of executives expect growth in procedure volumes, down from 31% in the previous year, primarily due to budget constraints [39] - **Specialty Procedures**: Expected growth across major specialties is clustered in the mid-single-digit range, indicating stable demand [40] Stock Implications - **Positive Outlook for Certain Companies**: - **Mindray**: Expected to recover to positive revenue growth in 2026 due to stable capex environment [11] - **United Imaging**: Positioned to benefit from high-end imaging demand [12] - **APT Medical**: Anticipated to capture growth in cardiac ablation procedures [14][15] - **Zylox-Tonbridge**: Expected to see growth in neuro and peripheral intervention procedures [16] Risks and Challenges - **Market Uncertainty**: Hospital executives express caution regarding capex decisions, with procurement timing expected to be back-loaded into the second half of 2026 [68] - **Regulatory Pressures**: Ongoing regulatory scrutiny and tighter budgets continue to pose challenges for lower-tier hospitals [56] Conclusion The 2026 outlook for the China healthcare sector is cautiously optimistic, with expected growth in hospital capex and a focus on advanced medical technologies. However, challenges such as pricing pressures and market competition from domestic players remain significant factors influencing the landscape.

Summary of Mindray's 3Q25 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Mindray (300760.SZ) - **Industry**: Medical Technology (Medtech) Key Financial Results - **3Q25 Revenue**: Rmb 9,091 million, an increase of 1.5% year-over-year (yoy), in line with Goldman Sachs estimates (GSe) of Rmb 9,102 million [1] - **Net Profit**: Rmb 2,501 million, a decrease of 19% yoy, missing GSe of Rmb 3,043 million due to higher-than-expected operating expense ratio of 28.7% compared to GSe of 23.7% [1] Revenue Breakdown by Segment - **PMLS (Patient Monitoring and Life Support)**: - Revenue growth of +2.6% yoy - Domestic revenue decline narrowed to -25% in 3Q25 from -57% in 1H25 - Overseas sales grew +14% yoy, accounting for 70% of total PMLS revenue [2] - **Medical Imaging (MI)**: - Revenue growth of +1% yoy - Domestic sales declined -30% yoy while overseas revenue increased +7% yoy [2] - **IVD (In Vitro Diagnostics)**: - Revenue decline of -2.8% yoy - Domestic growth at -22% and overseas growth at +14% [2] Market Dynamics - **Destocking Phase**: The domestic PMLS business is in a destocking phase, with inventory normalization expected to persist into 4Q25, and revenue recovery anticipated in 2026 [2][9] - **IVD Market Challenges**: The domestic IVD market faces pressures from medical insurance reform, leading to declines in testing volume and pricing [2] - **Market Share**: Mindray's market share in chemiluminescence, biochemistry, and coagulation reagents is approximately 10%, indicating potential for growth [2] Management Guidance and Future Outlook - **Destocking Completion**: Management expects the destocking process to be completed by 4Q25, with channel inventory normalizing to around two months [9] - **Overseas Revenue Growth**: The company anticipates overseas revenue to continue outpacing domestic growth, with an increase in the overseas share of total revenue [9] - **Innovation Focus**: Plans to strengthen the product portfolio in surgical and electrophysiology segments, with long-term optimism about consumables for gastrointestinal and respiratory interventions [9] - **Surgical Robotics**: The surgical robotics business is in early stages, with commercialization expected to take several more years [9] Financial Estimates and Price Target - **Revised Estimates**: - 2025E Revenue: Rmb 33,442 million (down 1.1% from previous estimate) - 2026E Revenue: Rmb 36,966 million (down 1.7% from previous estimate) - 2025E Net Profit: Rmb 8,771 million (down 16.8% from previous estimate) [14] - **Price Target**: The 12-month target price is set at Rmb 285, down from Rmb 314, maintaining a Buy rating [13][16] Risks and Challenges - **Key Risks**: - Impact from Value-Based Procurement (VBP) on product pricing - Lower-than-expected penetration into top-tier hospitals in China - Challenges in entering North American and European markets - Patent-related lawsuit risks - Unexpected changes in trade policies [17] Conclusion - Mindray remains a leading medtech device manufacturer in China, with strong growth potential driven by healthcare infrastructure development and overseas expansion. Despite current challenges, the company is positioned for recovery and growth in the coming years, particularly in the context of its low market share and cost-effective product offerings [15]