Core Viewpoint - Crude oil and gasoline prices are experiencing downward pressure, reaching 1.5-week lows due to easing geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran, as well as speculation regarding potential increases in OPEC+ production levels [1][2][3]. Geopolitical Factors - The de-escalation of US-Iran tensions has reduced the likelihood of military actions that could disrupt oil supplies, as President Trump indicated that negotiations over a nuclear deal could last for an extended period [2]. - The US has discussed the possibility of seizing tankers carrying Iranian oil, and there are considerations to send additional military resources to the Middle East in case nuclear talks fail, which could impact Iran's crude production of 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd) [5]. OPEC+ Production Outlook - Some OPEC+ members believe there is room to increase oil production in April, as concerns about a global supply glut are perceived to be exaggerated. An online meeting is scheduled for March 1 to discuss the situation [3]. Supply Dynamics - There is a significant increase in crude supplies in floating storage, with approximately 290 million barrels of Russian and Iranian crude currently stored on tankers, which is over 50% higher than the previous year due to sanctions and blockades [4]. - Venezuelan crude exports have risen to 800,000 bpd in January from 498,000 bpd in December, contributing to the increase in global oil supplies and exerting further bearish pressure on prices [6].

Group 1: U.S.-China-Venezuela Oil Dynamics - President Trump indicated that China may negotiate a deal to purchase Venezuelan oil, highlighting the potential for significant transactions in this sector [1] - China currently imports approximately 2 million barrels per day of asphalt-rich oil, with around 500,000 barrels per day sourced from Venezuela, which is essential for meeting over half of its daily asphalt requirements [3] - The U.S. has strategic leverage over China by controlling access to Venezuelan heavy crude, which is vital for maintaining asphalt quality [4] Group 2: India's Oil Strategy - India is expected to pivot towards Venezuelan oil, replacing its previous Iranian imports, which were halted due to U.S. sanctions in 2019 [5] - Following the sanctions on Iran, Indian refiners shifted to U.S. oil and later became the largest buyer of discounted Russian oil after the sanctions on Russia in 2022 [5] - The U.S. Treasury Secretary mentioned the possibility of lifting the 25% tariff on Indian goods, which may influence India's oil purchasing decisions [6] Group 3: Sanctions and Market Adjustments - The U.S. has eased some sanctions on Venezuela's oil sector, facilitating U.S. companies' ability to sell Venezuelan crude [7]

Trade and Tariffs - President Trump announced a 25% tariff on goods from any country conducting business with Iran, affecting major trading partners like China, the UAE, India, and Turkey [3][4] - China is identified as the top global importer of Iranian crude, which may face increased costs due to the new tariffs [3] Federal Reserve and Interest Rates - Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams indicated there is no urgency for a fourth consecutive interest rate cut, with the next meeting scheduled for the end of the month [5][6] - The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) has already reduced the federal funds rate by a cumulative 75 basis points last year, moving towards a neutral monetary policy stance [6] Aldi's Expansion Plans - Aldi plans to open over 180 new stores across 31 states by the end of 2026, celebrating its 50th anniversary in the U.S. [7][8] - This expansion will increase Aldi's total U.S. store count to nearly 2,800, with a target of 3,200 stores by the end of 2028 [8] - Aldi is also expanding its distribution network by 20% with new centers planned in Florida, Arizona, and Colorado over the next three years [9]

Core Viewpoint - President Donald Trump has announced plans to impose tariffs on buyers of Iranian crude oil, which has resulted in an increase in oil prices [1] Group 1: Impact on Oil Prices - The announcement of tariffs has led to a rise in crude oil prices, indicating a direct correlation between government policy and market reactions [1]

Oil Market Overview - Oil prices remained rangebound this week, with ICE Brent hovering around $63 per barrel as markets reacted to higher Russian oil export loadings and potential military action in Venezuela [2] - The curtailment of Kazakhstan's CPC Blend exports has been a bullish factor, but this was offset by Saudi Arabia's weak pricing for January, indicating lukewarm Asian demand signals for January-February 2026 [2] Saudi Aramco Pricing Strategy - Saudi Aramco has reduced its January official selling price for Asia-bound grades by 20-60 cents per barrel compared to December, with the Arab Light grade set at a $0.60 per barrel premium to Oman/Dubai, the lowest since January 2021 [3] Chinese Oil Purchases - Chinese independent refiners in Shandong province have been purchasing large volumes of Iranian crude at discounts exceeding $8 per barrel compared to Brent, sourced from bonded storage following the last 2025 import quota issued by Beijing [4] Chevron's Investment in Gas - Chevron announced the approval of a $2 billion Stage 3 expansion of the Gorgon LNG project off Australia's northwestern coast, focusing on the Geryon and Eurytion fields [5] Turkey's Gas Deal with Russia - Turkey's BOTAS has extended its natural gas import deal with Gazprom for another year, securing 16 billion cubic meters (bcm) of supply via the Blue Stream pipeline and 6 bcm from the Turkish Stream conduit [6] Chile-Argentina Oil Agreement - Chile's ENAP has signed a $12 billion term deal with Argentina's major oil producers, including YPF, Vista Energy, Shell, and Equinor, to purchase crude oil from Vaca Muerta over the next 7 years, fulfilling 35% of the company's total requirements [7] PetroChina's Gas Storage Acquisition - PetroChina has acquired three natural gas storage companies for $5.7 billion, marking one of the largest M&A deals in 2025, aimed at enhancing its geographic coverage and capacities for gas-driven power peak-shaving [8]