Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating on Alibaba, Meituan, and PDD, while highlighting JD as a potential multiple repair/re-rating story [14][15][18]. Core Insights - The competition intensity among eCommerce players, particularly Alibaba, JD, and Meituan, in food delivery and instant shopping has escalated, with an estimated aggregate investment of Rmb25 billion (approximately US$3 billion) in the June quarter alone [9]. - The report estimates a total addressable market (TAM) of Rmb2.4 trillion for food delivery and Rmb1.5 trillion for instant shopping by 2030, driven by increased platform subsidies and user acquisitions [4][40]. - The ultimate goal for these companies is to become the "everyday app" for transactions, facilitating cross-selling across various goods and services [12][56]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The food delivery competitive landscape is rapidly evolving, with Meituan achieving 90 million daily orders and Alibaba's Taobao Instant Commerce reaching 60 million peak daily orders [34]. - The report anticipates a re-acceleration of on-demand eCommerce penetration in China, projecting a TAM of Rmb1.5 trillion by 2030 [35][42]. Financial Projections - The report outlines three scenarios for food delivery and instant shopping, with a base case projecting a 5.5:3.5:1 market share between Meituan, Alibaba, and JD [10][27]. - Estimated losses for Alibaba and JD in food delivery are projected at Rmb-41 billion and Rmb-26 billion, respectively, over the next 12 months [9]. Company-Specific Insights - JD is expected to disproportionately benefit if it stabilizes its food delivery scale, while PDD is positioned to have a more resilient profit setup due to its lack of direct involvement in the food delivery competition [10][18]. - Meituan's strategic pivot towards centralized kitchens aims to enhance food safety and reduce delivery costs, which could improve long-term unit economics [11][54]. User Engagement and Traffic - The report notes a significant increase in daily active users (DAU) for both JD and Taobao, with a combined increase of 50 million DAU to approximately 410 million [12][56]. - The consolidation of offerings into a single app is seen as a strategy to monetize increased engagement from high-frequency food delivery [57].

16 May 2025 | 1:30AM HKT JD.com Inc. (JD): NDR highlights: Healthy JD Retail growth; investor focus on food delivery synergies and cross-sell potentials; Buy We hosted JD's CFO Mr. Ian Shan, Head of Investor Relations Mr. Sean Zhang, and the Investor Relations team with investors this week, post the company's 1Q results. Key investor focus areas/topics discussed included: 1) JD Retail guidance and outlook, where JD Retail saw its fastest quarterly active customer growth since 2021, at 20% yoy in 1Q25. Stron ...

14 May 2025 | 6:39AM HKT JD.com (JD/9618.HK) & JD Logistics (2618.HK) 1Q25 review: Strong JD Retail beat with faster-than-expected JD Food Delivery ramp-up; Buy With JD's strong 1Q profit beat and management's lifted JD Retail's full-year double-digit growth targets, yet removing full-year group net profit guidance (due to still evolving/faster-than-expected food delivery business ramp-up — latest daily orders at nearly 20mn, or 1/3 of Meituan's food delivery), we believe the slight positive share price rea ...

Core Insights - JD.com reported strong financial results for Q1 2025, with net revenues of RMB 301.1 billion (US$ 41.5 billion), representing a year-on-year increase of 15.8% [7][18] - The company experienced double-digit growth in both product and service revenues, driven by improved consumer sentiment and enhanced supply chain capabilities [3][7] - JD.com is committed to shareholder returns, completing an annual dividend payout and continuing its share repurchase program [3][4] Financial Performance - Net income attributable to ordinary shareholders increased by 52.7% to RMB 10.9 billion (US$ 1.5 billion) compared to Q1 2024 [27] - Non-GAAP net income attributable to ordinary shareholders rose by 43.4% to RMB 12.8 billion (US$ 1.8 billion) [27] - Diluted net income per ADS increased by 58.7% to RMB 7.19 (US$ 0.99) [28] Revenue Breakdown - JD Retail generated net revenues of RMB 263.8 billion (US$ 36.4 billion), a 16.3% increase year-on-year [34] - JD Logistics reported net revenues of RMB 46.9 billion (US$ 6.5 billion), an 11.5% increase [34] - New Businesses segment revenues grew by 18.1% to RMB 5.8 billion (US$ 793 million) [34] Cost and Expenses - Cost of revenues increased to RMB 253.2 billion (US$ 34.9 billion), up 15.0% from Q1 2024 [19] - Fulfillment expenses rose by 17.4% to RMB 19.7 billion (US$ 2.7 billion) [20] - Marketing expenses increased by 13.9% to RMB 10.5 billion (US$ 1.5 billion) [21] Strategic Initiatives - JD.com launched a food delivery business in February 2025, expanding its service offerings [11] - The company initiated an export-to-domestic sales program, aiming to procure RMB 200 billion worth of export-oriented goods for domestic sales [10] - JD Health strengthened its position in the online marketplace for new medicines, launching innovative products from major pharmaceutical companies [12][13] Share Repurchase Program - As part of its share repurchase program, JD.com repurchased approximately 80.7 million Class A ordinary shares for about US$ 1.5 billion from January 1, 2025, leaving US$ 3.5 billion remaining under the program [4][5] Cash Flow and Working Capital - As of March 31, 2025, JD.com had cash and cash equivalents totaling RMB 203.4 billion (US$ 28.0 billion) [29] - Free cash flow for Q1 2025 was RMB (21.6 billion) (US$ 2.98 billion), reflecting increased cash used in operating activities [29][31]

30 April 2025 | 6:31AM HKT Navigating China Internet Assessing the state of play with JD's entry into food delivery; scenarios and implications for Meituan, JD With JD's faster-than-expected food delivery ramp-up to 1/6 of Meituan's daily orders within two months of operations and the significant 20% share price declines of both Meituan and JD since April (vs. HSTECH of -9%), we lay out three eventual scenarios and assess the potential impacts to Meituan and JD: Scenario 1) JD pulls back subsidies and event ...