注：美国银行较2023年组别下降，法农信贷较2023年组别上升。 二、评估与监管 G-SIBs的评估方法由巴塞尔委员会（BCBS）制定，其评估体系目前最新版本包括13个指标，最终评估结果是这些指标的加权评分。评分体系包含五个方 面。一是跨境业务，包含跨境债权和跨境负债2个指标，用于衡量银行在本国之外的国家或地区的业务规模；二是规模，只包含调整后的表内外资产余额这 个指标；三是关联度，包含金融机构间资产、金融机构间负债、发行证券和其他融资工具3个指标；四是可替代性/金融基础设施，包含托管资产、通过支付 系统或代理行结算的支付额、有价证券承销额和交易量4个指标；五是复杂性，包含场外衍生产品名义本金、交易类和可供出售类证券与第三层次资产3个指 标。这套评分指标强调银行倒闭或出现财务困难的系统影响，即关注的是违约损失率，而非强调银行倒闭、财务困难或者违约可能性。G-SIBs监管的核心在 于附加资本要求，附加资本要求根据G-SIBs档位不同而在1%～3.5%之间。 内容提要 全球系统重要性银行正面临关键转型，新兴市场的工业化与中产扩张带来零售、对公及跨境业务新机遇，金融科技助力数字化风控与获客。然而，滞胀风 险、地缘冲 ...

Citigroup Inc. (NYSE:C) has quietly joined Wall Street's stablecoin race, investing in U.K.-based BVNK as banks prepare for what could become a $1.9 trillion market for tokenized dollars.Citi Deepens Push Into Tokenized MoneyThe deal came through Citi Ventures on Thursday. BVNK handles over $20 billion in annual transactions for clients such as Worldpay, Flywire, and dLocal."Stablecoins are gaining traction in on-chain settlement and asset payments," said Arvind Purushotham, head of Citi Ventures. The bank ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The report highlights the rapid growth and adoption of stablecoins, with their transaction volumes surpassing those of traditional financial systems like Visa and PayPal [7]. - It emphasizes the regulatory advancements in Hong Kong, particularly the introduction of the "Stablecoin Regulation Draft," which is expected to enhance compliance and foster innovation in the virtual asset market [23]. - The report anticipates an influx of institutional players into the virtual asset trading services, driven by regulatory clarity and the expansion of service offerings by Chinese brokerage firms [60]. Summary by Sections Section 1: Industry Chain, Application Scenarios, and Profit Models - Stablecoins have emerged as a more efficient medium for on-chain transactions compared to fiat currencies, significantly simplifying the process of trading cryptocurrencies [4]. - As of May 2025, the total market size of stablecoins is approximately $247.2 billion, with an average rolling transaction volume of $2.29 trillion, which is 1.7 times that of Visa [7]. - The most popular stablecoins are fiat-backed, such as USDT and USDC, which account for 64% and 25% of the market share, respectively [13]. - The report outlines the different types of stablecoins, including fiat-collateralized, crypto-collateralized, algorithmic, and commodity-backed stablecoins, each with its own advantages and disadvantages [10][12]. - The profitability of stablecoin issuers primarily comes from interest income generated from reserve assets, with Tether's interest income reaching $4 billion in 2023 [16]. Section 2: Institutions Expected to Accelerate Entry into Virtual Asset Trading Services - Chinese brokerage firms are rapidly expanding into virtual currency services, with Guotai Junan International being the first to obtain a Virtual Asset Service Provider (VASP) license [60]. - The report notes that as of July 2025, 43 brokerages and one bank have upgraded their licenses to provide virtual asset trading services, indicating a growing trend in the market [64]. - The report identifies 11 licensed Virtual Asset Trading Platforms (VATPs) in Hong Kong, which are crucial for retail investors to access virtual asset investments [66]. Section 3: Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook on the development of the virtual asset trading market in Hong Kong, driven by government policies and the anticipated expansion of market participants [83]. - It suggests that the ongoing regulatory framework will facilitate the tokenization of real-world assets, providing new avenues for revenue generation for brokerages [83].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a recommendation for investment in the stablecoin sector, emphasizing its potential to revolutionize global payment efficiency and its implications for the financial system [2][10]. Core Insights - Stablecoins represent a technological innovation that enhances global payment efficiency while also reflecting the digital extension of dollar hegemony and the ongoing competition within sovereign financial systems [2][10]. - The future development of stablecoins will depend on the maturation of regulatory frameworks and the evolution of a multipolar stablecoin ecosystem, which could determine their role as a core component of inclusive global financial infrastructure [2][10]. Summary by Sections Stablecoin 1.0: Efficiency Revolution in Traditional Payment Models - Stablecoins leverage smart contracts for automated payments, reducing credit risk and enhancing efficiency [11][12]. - They significantly lower cross-border payment costs, with fees dropping to as low as $0.00025 per transaction compared to traditional systems [19][20]. - In high-inflation economies, stablecoins serve as a hedge against inflation and facilitate cross-border settlements [27][28]. Stablecoin 2.0: Digital Extension of the Dollar - As of July 4, 2025, the global stablecoin market is valued at $241.634 billion, predominantly backed by the US dollar [30][32]. - The issuance of stablecoins is expected to increase demand for US Treasury securities, reinforcing the dollar's dominance [33][36]. Stablecoin 3.0: New Variables for Global Financial Stability - The stability of stablecoins relies on trust mechanisms, with potential systemic risks emerging from liquidity and credit risks [37][42]. - The rise of stablecoins may challenge sovereign monetary policies and reduce the effectiveness of macroeconomic controls [38][42]. Stablecoin 4.0: Future Compliance and Ecosystem Integration - The report anticipates four concurrent trends in stablecoin development: regulatory frameworks enhancing compliance, deeper integration with traditional finance, the creation of stablecoin application ecosystems, and the emergence of a multipolar stablecoin system [45][52]. - Regulatory developments in regions like the EU, the US, and Hong Kong are expected to shape the future landscape of stablecoins [46][48].

Core Insights - JPMorgan's second-quarter earnings exceeded expectations, with revenues at $44.9 billion, despite a 10% decrease compared to the previous year, indicating resilience against tariff impacts [4] - CEO Jamie Dimon emphasized the importance of open banking and digital assets, including JPM Coin and stablecoins, as key growth areas for the bank [3][9] - The bank's consumer and commercial clients are in strong financial condition, with stable credit metrics and a slight increase in loans [2][5] Financial Performance - Revenues for the second quarter were reported at $44.9 billion, which was 10% lower year-over-year but still above expectations [4] - Consumer and community banking loans increased by 1% to $576.1 billion, while debit and card sales volumes rose by 7% to $487.2 billion [5] - Active mobile customers grew by 8% to 59.9 million, reflecting a positive trend in digital engagement [5] Regulatory Environment - Dimon called for regulators to simplify the financial system, suggesting that recent banking failures could have been avoided with better regulatory clarity [7] - He highlighted the decline in public companies and the need for regulators to define their goals for public versus private markets [7] Digital Assets and Open Banking - The bank is committed to exploring digital holdings and stablecoins, with Dimon acknowledging the competitive landscape posed by FinTechs [3][9] - Dimon discussed the potential for charging fees for data access in open banking, emphasizing the costs associated with setting up secure systems [10] - He advocated for consumer rights in data sharing, stressing the importance of liability clarity when third parties are involved [10]

Investment Rating - The industry view for large-cap banks in North America is rated as In-Line [8] Core Insights - Stablecoins currently do not serve as a substitute for bank deposits due to their lack of yield and limited acceptance as a payment tool, but this could change as the market evolves [2][11] - The growth of stablecoins could significantly impact the Treasury market, as they hold a considerable share of T-bills, with Tether holding approximately 66% of its reserves in T-bills, representing about 2% of the total T-bill market [4][15] - Institutional use cases, such as faster settlement and collateral mobility, are expected to drive further adoption of stablecoins [5] - The regulatory landscape for digital assets is evolving, with the Genius Act having passed the Senate, which will shape how stablecoins interact with the broader financial system [6][20] Summary by Sections Potential Implications for Bank Deposits - Stablecoins are not a current threat to bank deposits but banks should not be complacent and may consider issuing their own tokenized deposits [2][12] Stablecoins vs. Money Market Funds - Stablecoins are more regulated and cannot pay interest, treating holders as creditors, while money market funds can offer yields and equity ownership [3][13] Treasury Market Impact - The growth of stablecoins could increase demand for U.S. Treasury bills, providing the Treasury with a more stable buyer base for short-term debt [4][15][17] Growth Drivers - The current market cap of stablecoins is $263 billion, primarily driven by retail users, but institutional adoption is expected to fuel future growth [18] Legislative Outlook - The final regulatory frameworks will significantly influence the interaction of stablecoins with the financial system, with the Genius Act and Clarity Act being key legislative efforts [6][20]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The application scenarios for stablecoins are continuously expanding, with a future scale expected to reach $3.5 trillion [3][25] - Circle, as a leading company in the stablecoin sector, demonstrates growth potential and challenges in its business layout, ecosystem construction, and financial performance [3][25] Summary by Sections 1. Stablecoins: Continuous Expansion of Application Scenarios - Since the launch of the first stablecoin USDT in 2014, stablecoins have evolved from focusing solely on cryptocurrency trading to applications in payments and traditional finance [7] - Major developments include JPM Coin for cross-border trade settlements and PayPal USD for consumer payments, indicating a broadening of use cases [7][8] 2. Future Scale of Stablecoins - The future scale of stablecoins is projected to reach $3.5 trillion, driven by four main scenarios: cryptocurrency trading, cross-border payments, daily consumer payments, and traditional capital market applications [25][26] - In cryptocurrency trading, stablecoins are expected to reach $363.3 billion by 2030, assuming a 10% growth in the cryptocurrency market [15][26] - For cross-border payments, stablecoins could capture 20% of the market, leading to a demand of $2.9 trillion [15][26] - Daily consumer payments could see stablecoin demand of $121.6 billion, assuming a 10% market share [15][21] - In traditional capital markets, stablecoin demand is estimated at $133.3 billion under neutral scenarios [15][26] 3. Circle: The First Publicly Listed Stablecoin Company - Circle, founded in 2013, is set to go public in 2025 and focuses on its self-issued stablecoin USDC, which is expected to account for 99.1% of its revenue by 2024 [25][26] - The company has built an ecosystem around USDC, including stablecoin issuance, tokenized funds, liquidity services, and developer tools [25][31] - Circle's revenue is highly tied to reserve asset yields, benefiting from the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, with projected revenue of $1.676 billion in 2024 [25][41] 4. Financial Performance and Challenges - Circle's revenue has shown significant growth, from $772 million in 2022 to $1.45 billion in 2023, with a further increase to $1.676 billion expected in 2024 [44] - The company's gross margin has declined from 60% in 2022 to 39% in 2024 due to rising distribution and transaction costs [48] - Circle's financial model is sensitive to external economic variables, particularly interest rates and market events, which can lead to volatile profit margins [46][50]

Core Viewpoint - The application scenarios of stablecoins are continuously expanding, with the future scale expected to reach $3.5 trillion [1][2]. Group 1: Application Scenarios - Stablecoins have evolved from their inception in 2014 with USDT, initially focusing on cryptocurrency trading, to various applications including cross-border trade settlements and decentralized finance (DeFi) [1]. - Four main scenarios for stablecoin application have emerged: 1) Cryptocurrency trading, supporting transactions of BTC, ETH, RWA assets, and NFTs [1]. 2) Cross-border payments, enabling point-to-point instant transfers without intermediaries [1]. 3) Consumer payments, integrating stablecoins into the internet finance system for lower-cost and faster transactions [1]. 4) Traditional capital markets, allowing tokenization of assets like foreign exchange and securities, enhancing asset usability and transferability [1]. Group 2: Future Scale Estimation - The future scale of stablecoins is projected to reach $3.5 trillion through four key scenarios: 1) In the cryptocurrency sector, with a neutral market growth of 10%, stablecoins are expected to reach $363.3 billion by 2030, maintaining an 8.22% market share [2]. 2) In cross-border payments, assuming a 20% market share, the demand is estimated at $2.9 trillion [2]. 3) For daily consumer payments, a 10% market share translates to $121.6 billion [2]. 4) In traditional capital markets, under a neutral scenario, stablecoin demand is projected to be $133.3 billion [2].

Core Insights - The implementation of the "Stablecoin Regulation Draft" in Hong Kong and the passage of the "Genius Act" in the U.S. Senate signify a growing global focus on stablecoin policies, potentially leading to more countries adopting similar innovations [1][15][16] - Stablecoins are emerging as a significant force in the digital currency landscape, with their unique attributes allowing for stability and efficiency in transactions compared to traditional fiat currencies [3][4][5] Regulatory Developments - Hong Kong's stablecoin regulation will take effect on August 1, while the U.S. "Genius Act" is awaiting a vote in the House of Representatives before being signed by President Trump [1] - The European Union and other regions are also working on stablecoin regulations, aiming to redefine the digital financial order [15][16] Market Growth - The stablecoin market has experienced explosive growth, with total market capitalization rising from $20 billion five years ago to $260 billion currently, and projections suggest it could reach $400 billion by the end of 2025 [6] - Over 95% of stablecoins are currently dollar-pegged, highlighting the dominance of U.S. dollar stablecoins in the market [5][17] Technological Advantages - Stablecoins leverage blockchain technology, providing decentralized features that enhance transaction speed and reduce costs, with cross-border payments being completed in minutes compared to traditional methods that can take days [4][10] - The unique mechanism of stablecoins allows for flexible supply adjustments based on market demand, distinguishing them from traditional cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin [4][5] Application Scenarios - Stablecoins are increasingly used in various applications, including cross-border trade settlements, daily payments, and decentralized finance (DeFi) innovations, with annual transaction volumes reaching $28 trillion [9][10] - They serve as a crucial bridge between traditional finance and digital assets, facilitating liquidity and risk management in the cryptocurrency market [11][12] Competitive Landscape - Major financial institutions and tech companies are entering the stablecoin space, with firms like JPMorgan, PayPal, and various banks in Brazil and the UAE exploring their own stablecoin offerings [13] - The competition is intensifying as traditional and new financial players seek to capitalize on the growing demand for stablecoins [13] Global Financial Dynamics - The U.S. aims to maintain its dominance in the global currency system through the promotion of dollar stablecoins, which are expected to play a critical role in international trade and payments [16][18] - China's initiatives, including the issuance of a digital yuan and stablecoin regulations, indicate a strategic move to enhance the internationalization of the renminbi [18][19]

Core Viewpoint - The approval of Guotai Junan International by the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission to upgrade its securities trading license to provide virtual asset trading services marks a significant development in the financial industry, allowing direct trading of cryptocurrencies and stablecoins on its platform [1][3]. Group 1 - Guotai Junan International becomes the first Chinese broker in Hong Kong to offer comprehensive virtual asset trading services, including trading, advisory, and issuance of related products [3]. - Following the announcement, the Hong Kong stock market opened higher, with the Hang Seng Index rising by 0.62% and the Hang Seng Tech Index increasing by 0.9%. Guotai Junan International's stock surged over 60% after initially spiking more than 100% [1][3]. - The news has led to a notable increase in the valuation of financial companies associated with stablecoins, as seen with Everbright Holdings and its related securities [2][3]. Group 2 - Analysts suggest that stablecoins could fundamentally transform the role of large investment banks from mere transaction facilitators to becoming engines for asset securitization and cross-border clearing hubs [4]. - The current legal framework limits the connection between domestic brokerage operations and stablecoins, but international operations may benefit from stablecoin expansion, especially after Guotai Junan International's license approval [5][6]. Group 3 - The expansion of brokerages' balance sheets is seen as a key driver for stock price increases, with the current period (2023-2024) potentially being an opportunity for such expansion [5][6]. - The stablecoin market is currently valued at $220 billion, with projections suggesting it could grow eightfold to $2 trillion in the next three years, significantly impacting the short-term treasury market [6].