We are going to hit them extremely hard over the next 2 to 3 weeks. We're going to bring them back to the stone ages where they belong. It's 5 a.m. in New York City, 10 a. m.in London. Good morning. I'm Vonnie Quinn with your bloomberg brief.Let's get you set up for the day. Mark is on edge. Stocks lower, oil surging as president trump's prime time address dampens hopes for a swift resolution in the middle east.Tariff announcements on deck. The US set to roll out a tiered system for steel and aluminum impor ...

30 March 2026 | 10:29PM EDT Commodities Research Oil Tracker: Risks to Red Sea Flows; Hormuz Flows Still Low Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby +1(646)446-3905 | yulia.grigsby@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Alexandra Paulus +1(212)902-7111 | alexandra.paulus@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Daan Struyven +1(212)357-4172 | daan.struyven@gs.com Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC Charts of the Day Exhibit 1: Flows Through the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait Are 2.7mb/d Higher Than Their 2025 Average But Still Below the 2023 Averages (Before Hou ...

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - **Industry**: Energy, specifically focusing on fuel processing and refining in the Asia Pacific region - **Current Situation**: Fuel markets are experiencing tightness due to an oil shock, with fuel processing identified as a key bottleneck [1][2] Core Insights - **Profitability Surge**: Companies that process crude oil into fuel products like gasoline and diesel are seeing significant increases in profitability due to rising fuel prices. Diesel price caps have been raised across several Asian countries, with India and Vietnam implementing tax reductions to manage fuel prices [2][3] - **Medium-Term Outlook**: The medium-term profitability potential for fuel refiners is not fully appreciated by investors. While near-term expectations may be overstated, the long-term impact of rising fuel consumption is expected to be significant [3][5] - **Refinery Margins**: Diesel margins have tripled to approximately US$60 per barrel, but the net increase in refinery profitability is estimated to be only US$4-5 per barrel due to rising crude costs, insurance, shipping, and energy costs [4][5] Key Factors Affecting Profitability - **Cost Increases**: - Crude sourcing costs have risen by US$20 per barrel due to geopolitical conflicts - Insurance and shipping costs have increased by US$3-4 per barrel - Energy costs and fuel loss have further impacted margins by US$2-2.5 per barrel [4] - **Operational Delays**: Refiners face a 20-25 day delay in sourcing, processing, and selling crude, which affects their ability to capitalize on current market prices [4] Investment Recommendations - **Preferred Stocks**: Indian refiners such as Reliance, Indian Oil, PTT Global Chemicals, OIL India, Bangchak Petroleum, and ONGC are highlighted as preferred equities due to their strong domestic markets and crude sourcing capabilities [6] - **Long-Term Investment**: The report suggests that refiners will remain attractive investments as fuel consumption is expected to grow at twice the rate of supply over the next nine years [5] Additional Insights - **Government Policies**: Various Asian governments are implementing measures to manage fuel supply and prices, including tax cuts, subsidies, and export controls. For instance, Japan has expanded fuel subsidies, while Thailand has lifted price caps on diesel [29][30][34][42] - **Market Dynamics**: The ongoing energy supply dislocation is prompting countries to diversify their energy sources and manage domestic fuel availability more aggressively [54][55] Conclusion - The energy sector, particularly fuel refining, is poised for significant changes due to current market dynamics and geopolitical factors. Investors are encouraged to consider the long-term potential of refiners, especially in the context of rising fuel consumption and government interventions aimed at stabilizing markets [5][6]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Energy & Chemicals - **Companies Discussed**: Sinopec, PetroChina Key Points on Sinopec - **1Q26 Performance**: Expected nominal net profit of Rmb20.6 billion, representing a 48% year-over-year increase, driven by strong upstream performance and robust refining margins [9][14] - **Refining Dynamics**: Gross refining margin (GRM) remained strong, supported by a 45-day trading average crude price and mark-to-market fuel pricing. Anticipated retail prices for gasoline and diesel set on March 23 should keep GRM above US$6.5/bbl [12][14] - **Future Outlook**: Management likely to retain part of earnings as a buffer for 2Q26 due to uncertainties in energy markets. Estimated 2Q26 net profit around Rmb12 billion, leading to a total of Rmb32.6 billion for 1H26, a 37% year-over-year growth [14][15] - **Market Factors**: Jet fuel and naphtha prices are expected to rise, providing additional support to product cracks. The market may be underestimating the positive contributions from these products [9][12] Key Points on PetroChina - **1Q26 Performance**: Projected net profit of Rmb50 billion, a 6% year-over-year increase, with a 30% increase expected for 1H26 [9][21] - **Gas Segment**: Benefiting from lower import costs, but approximately 10% of gas volume is tied to spot LNG prices, which have surged due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz [21] - **Future Outlook**: Anticipated strong upstream earnings due to rising crude oil prices and a significant increase in gas selling prices due to high spot LNG prices [21] Additional Insights - **GRM Model**: A new GRM model introduced, which factors in freight costs, Arab light oil premiums, and foreign exchange rates to better assess Sinopec's refining and marketing EBIT [9][3] - **Market Risks**: Sinopec's downside risk is linked to broader global equity market movements, particularly dependent on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz [9][18] - **Chemical Margins**: Expected recovery in chemical profitability amid market undersupply in 2Q26 [9][21] Conclusion - Both Sinopec and PetroChina are positioned to deliver strong financial results in 1Q26, driven by favorable upstream conditions and refining margins. However, uncertainties in the geopolitical landscape and market dynamics pose potential risks to future performance.

Brazil's Petrobras plans 55% hike in jet fuel prices, airline says | Reuters Exclusive news, data and analytics for financial market professionalsLearn more aboutRefinitiv A view shows the logo of Brazilian state-run oil firm Petrobras in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil June 5, 2025. REUTERS/Ricardo Moraes/File Photo Purchase Licensing Rights, opens new tab Companies Gol Linhas Aereas Inteligentes SA Follow Petroleo Brasileiro SA Petrobras Follow SAO PAULO, March 31 (Reuters) - Abra Group, the holding company that c ...

Airlines are scrambling to protect their business as the Iran war pushes jet fuel costs to multiyear highs. The market is splitting into two camps as carriers test the limits of pricing power, according to Morgan Stanley analyst Ravi Shanker. While heavyweights like Delta (DAL) and United Airlines (UAL) have the ability to raise prices without losing customers, others are being left behind. Shanker noted that Delta has already raised its revenue target for the first quarter, expecting its earnings to h ...

Good morning to you. What did you make of what Dan was saying there. I mean, this talk of uh 150 bucks a barrel, even 200.>> Yeah. Well, these are very real uh numbers that are out there in the market today. And what I think people are talking about when they think about big numbers like 150 or 200 is that the longer that this conflict goes on, the more that the pain that is already being felt in the physical market for barrels of oil will start to be reflected in the futures prices.Uh, one of the um, signa ...

JetBlue is raising baggage fees by $4–$9 for economy passengers, citing increasing jet fuel prices due to global oil supply shortages amid the Iran war. "As we experience rising operating costs, we regularly evaluate how to manage those costs while keeping base fares competitive and continuing to invest in the experience our customers value," JetBlue wrote in a statement to FOX Business. "Adjusting fees for optional services used by select customers, such as checked baggage, allows us to continue offering m ...

Gasoline prices topped $4 per gallon nationwide on Tuesday, with the national average price at the pump hitting $4.02, its highest level since August 2022, according to AAA data. This rise comes as the US-Iran war enters its fifth week, and is the latest milestone to be reached by gas prices which are now up about $1 on average, from one month ago, with most of those gains coming since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict. The national average at the pump rose to $4.018 per gallon, its highest lev ...

U.S. gasoline prices have surged above $4 per gallon for the first time in more than three years, as the oil supply shock triggered by the Middle East war rapidly drives up costs for families.Prices at the pump hit a nationwide average of $4.018, the highest level since August 2022 when Russia's war against Ukraine shook energy markets, the travel association AAA said. Gas prices have soared more than 30% since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in late February, according to AAA data."We foresee potential f ...