Evolus Inc. (NASDAQ:EOLS) is one of the stocks that will double in 2026. On December 2, Mizuho lowered the firm’s price target on Evolus to $19 from $20, while keeping an Outperform rating on the shares. Mizuho lowered its estimates for Evolus’s products, Jeuveau and Evolysse, due to the recent decline in consumer sentiment. The firm now expects a higher probability of sustained inflationary pressure negatively impacting demand for elective injectable facial aesthetic procedures. Despite this headwind, Miz ...

Summary of Evolus Conference Call Company Overview - Evolus is currently in a significant growth phase, having launched its second product, Evolysse, alongside its flagship product Jeuveau, which has established a strong market presence in the U.S. and Europe [2][3][4] Key Points and Arguments Product Development and Market Position - Jeuveau has been recognized as the fastest-growing brand in the U.S. aesthetic market, capturing mid-teens market share, marking the first time a company has achieved double-digit market share since the entry of the first two players [2][4] - Evolysse is positioned as a differentiated product utilizing new technology (COLDEX) for hyaluronic acid (HA) production, with plans to introduce a sculpt product for the mid-face in the upcoming year [3][4][22] - The company has built a customer base of 17,000 clinics across the U.S., which presents significant growth opportunities as it enters the second phase of commercialization [3][4] Market Dynamics and Performance - Despite a challenging macroeconomic environment, Evolus has reported double-digit growth, with Jeuveau continuing to grow in the U.S. and strong international performance, particularly in the U.K. [4][5][48] - The aesthetic market, particularly for neuromodulators, has historically shown resilience during economic downturns, although current conditions are presenting unique challenges [6][7][8] - The company anticipates a rebound in the market, driven by pent-up consumer demand, as consumers are currently delaying treatments due to economic pressures [8][9] Competitive Landscape - The competitive landscape includes established players like AbbVie and Galderma, with Evolus focusing on differentiating its products through quality and innovative marketing strategies [6][7][9] - Evolus has successfully positioned Jeuveau against Botox through head-to-head clinical trials, demonstrating superior efficacy in multiple endpoints [12][13][14] Consumer Trends and Marketing Strategy - There is a growing consumer trend towards preventive aesthetic treatments, with younger demographics increasingly seeking these services [7][8] - Evolus has launched a campaign to rebrand HA fillers, moving away from the term "filler" to "injectable HA," which has resonated positively with consumers [29][30] - The company is leveraging its loyalty program to encourage repeat purchases and cross-selling between Jeuveau and Evolysse [19][22] Financial Outlook and Business Development - Evolus has access to $100 million in capital for business development, with a focus on achieving profitability by the fourth quarter of 2025 and for the full year of 2026 [41][42][48] - The company expects to see sequential improvement in performance as it wraps around a depressed market base, with a strong international growth trajectory anticipated [46][47][48] Future Product Pipeline - The introduction of the Skulpt product is expected in the second half of 2026, which will complement the existing HA product line and enhance the company's market position [46][47] - Evolus is exploring opportunities in biostimulators and other innovative products to expand its portfolio [43][44] Additional Important Insights - The company has successfully reduced expenses by $25 million, positioning itself for profitability amidst a declining market [48] - Evolus is focused on building partnerships with clinics, emphasizing the importance of training and support for product adoption [20][21][25] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the Evolus conference call, highlighting the company's strategic direction, market dynamics, and future growth potential.

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global net revenue for Q3 2025 was $69 million, representing a 13% increase compared to Q3 2024 [30] - Gross margin for Q3 was reported at 66.5%, with adjusted gross margin at 67.6% [31] - Non-GAAP operating loss for Q3 was $3.1 million, an improvement from a loss of $6.7 million in Q3 2024 [35] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Jeuveau revenue for Q3 was $63.2 million, while Evolisse contributed $5.7 million [31] - The Evolus consumer loyalty program grew to over 1.3 million members, a 34% increase year-on-year [7] - Evolisse's revenue increased sequentially to approximately $5 million after initial stocking [14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. aesthetic market remains down in single digits, but Jeuveau outperformed the category with unit volume growth year-to-date [10][12] - The company strengthened its market share to 14% in the U.S. year-to-date [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Evolus aims to achieve profitability in 2025 and sustainable annual profitability starting in 2026 [11][37] - The company is focusing on expanding its portfolio and has introduced a bundled offering to drive market share gains [15][56] - Evolus is actively pursuing strategic business development opportunities to expand its pipeline [29] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted early signs of stabilization in consumer demand for injectables, despite challenges in the aesthetic market [11] - The company remains confident in navigating potential tariff impacts and maintaining financial performance [18][32] Other Important Information - Evolus submitted a PMA to the U.S. FDA for Evolve's Sculpt, with potential approval anticipated in 2026 [17] - The company has taken proactive measures to mitigate potential tariff impacts on pharmaceuticals, including Jeuveau [18][32] Q&A Session Summary Question: Can you discuss the dynamics of Evolisse and the impact of market sentiment? - Management highlighted that initial training is crucial for product adoption, with significant inflection points observed after second training sessions [44][45] - The market is currently facing challenges, but Q4 is expected to be stronger due to accumulated experience and seasonal factors [48] Question: What are the usage trends between Evolisse Smooth and Form? - Both products are used for the nasolabial fold, but Smooth is preferred for a softer effect while Form provides more structure [57][62] Question: Can you elaborate on the sequential growth for Jeuveau in Q3? - The company maintained consistent promotional efforts and engaged consumers through loyalty programs, which contributed to the growth [66] Question: What is the split between U.S. and international sales for Jeuveau? - The company does not provide detailed segment reporting but noted growth in both U.S. and international markets [71][73] Question: What are the potential impacts of tariffs on the business? - Management is closely monitoring tariff developments and has taken steps to mitigate potential impacts, including pulling forward inventory purchases [103][104]

Core Insights - The FDA has scheduled a Biosimilar Biological Product Development (BPD) Type 2a meeting for AEON's ABP-450 on November 19, 2025, which aligns with prior guidance [1][4] - The meeting will focus on AEON's analytical development plan under the 351(k) biosimilar pathway, aiming to establish alignment with the FDA on the analytical framework [2][3] Company Overview - AEON Biopharma is developing ABP-450 as a biosimilar to BOTOX, targeting the U.S. therapeutic neurotoxin market, which exceeds $3.0 billion annually [5] - ABP-450 is manufactured by Daewoong Pharmaceutical and is already approved as a biosimilar in India, Mexico, and the Philippines [5] - The company holds exclusive development and distribution rights for therapeutic indications of ABP-450 in the U.S., Canada, the EU, the UK, and other territories [5]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global net revenue for Q2 2025 was $69.4 million, a 4% increase compared to 2024, driven by the successful launch of Evolisse and international revenue growth [28] - Reported gross margin for Q2 was 65.3%, with adjusted gross margin at 66.5%, impacted by a higher mix of international sales and introductory pricing for Evolisse [28][29] - GAAP operating expenses for Q2 were $55.5 million, down from $61.8 million in Q1, while non-GAAP operating expenses were $54 million compared to $52.9 million in Q1 [30][31] - Non-GAAP operating loss in Q2 was $7.9 million, compared to non-GAAP operating income of $1.1 million in 2024 [31] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Jeuveau experienced its first year-over-year decrease since launch, reflecting a decline in consumer sentiment and procedural volumes in the U.S. aesthetic toxin market [6][8] - Evolisse generated $9.7 million in revenue in its first quarter, marking the strongest first-quarter filler launch in over a decade [18] - The company maintained a 14% market share in the toxin market through the first half of the year, an increase from 13% in 2024 [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Procedural volumes in the U.S. toxin category have decreased over the past three consecutive quarters, with a notable impact on Jeuveau demand in Q2 [8][10] - Surveys indicated a potential rebound in patient volume in the second half of the year, with a majority of practices expecting growth of over 10% [9] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company revised its 2025 revenue guidance to a range of $295 million to $305 million, reflecting 11% to 15% growth over 2024 [11][34] - Evolisse is expected to contribute 10% to 12% of total revenue for 2025, with a focus on maintaining long-term growth and profitability [20][34] - The company aims to achieve $700 million in revenue by 2028, with a non-GAAP operating income margin of 20% [33][34] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that the market environment has been challenging, with a significant slowdown in demand observed in the last two weeks of Q2 [6][10] - Despite the challenges, management expressed confidence in the company's ability to deliver sustainable growth, supported by strong early adoption of Evolisse and ongoing international expansion [21][90] Other Important Information - The company has implemented strategic reductions in operating expenses, resulting in over $25 million in annualized savings, while maintaining investment in customer-facing activities [13][34] - Evolus Rewards program saw record redemptions of over $224,000, with 65% coming from repeat patients, indicating strong brand loyalty [16] Q&A Session Summary Question: What dynamics are being seen regarding reduced demand? - Management indicated that procedural demand declined in the high single digits, with the slowdown not driven by competitive dynamics but rather overall market conditions [36][38] Question: What was the impact of inventory buying on recorded revenue? - Management suggested that the initial revenue from Evolisse included both stocking and pull-through elements, making it difficult to quantify precisely [40] Question: How do you explain the improvement seen in July? - Management noted a significant shift in business in July, correlating with internal and third-party research indicating a potential rebound [41] Question: What are the expectations for toxin demand trends? - Management highlighted that overall procedural volume did slow in the first half of the year, with some competitors experiencing significant declines [51] Question: What promotional activities are planned for Q4? - Management mentioned adjustments to promotional strategies to help practices with pull-through, including collaborations with beauty magazines [54] Question: What is driving the current consumer sentiment? - Management noted that consumers earning $150,000 or less are feeling the pinch from increased prices and tariffs, impacting their spending on aesthetic treatments [67] Question: How does the company plan to achieve its 2028 targets? - Management reiterated confidence in reaching the $700 million target, emphasizing that the revised guidance does not change the long-term outlook [87]

Core Insights - AEON Biopharma, Inc. is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company focused on developing a botulinum toxin complex for various therapeutic indications [1][3] - The company will present a corporate overview at the Aegis Capital Corp. 2025 Virtual Conference on May 21, 2025 [1] Company Overview - AEON is developing its proprietary botulinum toxin complex, ABP-450 (prabotulinumtoxinA) injection, for debilitating medical conditions [3] - ABP-450 is the same botulinum toxin complex marketed for cosmetic uses under the name Jeuveau by Evolus [3] - The product is manufactured by Daewoong in compliance with current Good Manufacturing Practice (cGMP) and is approved by the U.S. FDA, Health Canada, and the European Medicines Agency [3] - ABP-450 is approved as a biosimilar in Mexico and India [3] - AEON holds exclusive development and distribution rights for therapeutic indications of ABP-450 in the U.S., Canada, EU, UK, and other international territories [3] - The company has a highly experienced management team with expertise in biopharmaceutical and botulinum toxin development and commercialization [3]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Evolus reported global net revenue of $68.5 million for Q1 2025, representing a 15.5% increase compared to Q1 2024, supported by a strong commercial engine [6][15][12] - The company achieved a gross margin of 68.1% and an adjusted gross margin of 69.2% for the first quarter [18] - Non-GAAP operating loss for Q1 was $500,000, an improvement from a loss of $900,000 in Q1 2024, with expectations of achieving profitability in Q4 2025 [21][28] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Product revenue accounted for approximately 94% of total sales, with a customer reorder rate of about 70% [15] - The company added 675 new purchasing accounts, bringing the total to over 16,000, indicating strong market penetration [7] - The loyalty program saw over 220,000 redemptions, with 65% from existing consumers, highlighting high consumer satisfaction [8] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Evolus gained a 14% market share by the end of 2024, exceeding initial guidance, and continued to gain share in Q1 2025 [17] - International revenue contribution increased and is expected to outpace U.S. growth, validating the strong growth trajectory of the toxin business outside the U.S. [16] - The company reduced its toxin market growth expectation to low single digits for 2025, reflecting a more conservative outlook [6][17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Evolus is transitioning into a multiproduct company with the launch of Evolisse, aiming to redefine the category and capture market share [8][11] - The company is focused on building long-term customer relationships and deepening its presence within existing accounts [11] - Evolus aims to achieve total net revenue of at least $700 million by 2028, with a compounded annual growth rate of 27% from 2024 [24][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate a challenging market environment while maintaining growth [14][12] - The early success of Evolisse is seen as a momentum builder, reinforcing growth across the portfolio [12] - Management reiterated full-year revenue guidance of $345 million to $355 million, projecting continued growth above 30% [27][28] Other Important Information - The company has taken proactive steps to strengthen its balance sheet through debt refinancing, reducing interest expenses and increasing cash generation [22][23] - Evolus is closely monitoring tariff impacts on its products, with limited exposure expected for 2025 [18][19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Market trends and demand changes - Management indicated that both macroeconomic factors and negative sentiment around the term "filler" are impacting demand, but they see an opportunity to revive the market segment [30][32] Question: Impact of AbbVie's loyalty program changes - Management acknowledged the impact of AbbVie's loyalty program changes on market dynamics but believes they continue to gain share despite this [44][46] Question: Confidence in 2025 revenue guidance - Management reiterated confidence in 2025 guidance due to accelerated share uptake despite slower market growth [54][56] Question: Early adopters of Evolisse - The initial adoption of Evolisse is primarily among existing customers, with high interest in trialing the product [65][66] Question: Seasonality and market softness - Management noted a consistent seasonal pattern but acknowledged slight slowing in new patient starts, impacting overall market dynamics [70][78]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Evolus reported global net revenue of $68.5 million for Q1 2025, representing a 15.5% increase compared to Q1 2024 [15][26] - The gross margin for Q1 was reported at 68.1%, with an adjusted gross margin of 69.2% [18] - Non-GAAP operating loss for Q1 was $500,000, an improvement from a loss of $900,000 in Q1 2024 [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Product revenue accounted for approximately 94% of total sales, with a customer reorder rate of about 70% [15][16] - The company added 675 new purchasing accounts, bringing the total to over 16,000 [7] - The repeat treatment rate for Jeuveau indicates strong consumer loyalty, with over 220,000 redemptions in the loyalty program, 65% from existing consumers [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Evolus gained a 14% market share by the end of 2024, which is 1% above the initial guidance for 2025 [17] - International revenue contribution is increasing and is expected to outpace U.S. growth [16] - The company has reduced its toxin market growth expectation to low single digits for 2025 [6][17] Company Strategy and Development Direction - Evolus is transitioning into a multiproduct company with the launch of Evolisse, aiming to redefine the market narrative around fillers [8][11] - The company is focused on building long-term customer relationships and deepening its presence within existing accounts [11] - Evolus is reaffirming its full-year revenue guidance of $345 million to $355 million, targeting over 30% growth for the sixth consecutive year [12][26] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted a cautious market environment but expressed confidence in the company's ability to capture market share and drive growth [6][12] - The early success of Evolisse is seen as a momentum builder for the company, reinforcing growth across its product portfolio [12] - Management remains optimistic about achieving at least $700 million in net revenue by 2028, with a target of 20% non-GAAP operating income margin [26][83] Other Important Information - The company has taken proactive steps to strengthen its balance sheet through debt refinancing, reducing interest expenses and increasing cash generation [14][22] - The impact of tariffs on the injectable hyaluronic acid gel is estimated to be less than $2 million for 2025, and the company has incorporated this into its planning [18][19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Market trends and demand changes - Management indicated that both macroeconomic factors and negative sentiment around the term "filler" are impacting demand, but they see an opportunity to revive the market segment with their new product [30][32] Question: Impact of AbbVie's loyalty program changes - Management acknowledged the impact of AbbVie's loyalty program changes on market dynamics but emphasized that they continue to gain market share despite these challenges [42][45] Question: Confidence in 2025 revenue guidance - Management reiterated confidence in the 2025 revenue guidance due to accelerated share uptake and strong performance in a challenging market [49][51] Question: Early adopters of Evolisse - The early adopters of Evolisse include existing customers, with a high interest in trialing the product, indicating strong initial feedback [58][59] Question: Seasonal market trends - Management noted a consistent seasonal pattern in the market, with Q4 typically being the strongest quarter, and they expect a bounce back in Q2 [62][65] Question: Broader market softness - Management reported slight slowing in new patient starts but noted that existing patients continue to engage with the product [71][73]

Group 1 - AEON Biopharma has appointed Rob Bancroft as President and CEO, and the Compensation Committee has approved inducement awards for him [1] - Mr. Bancroft will receive a non-qualified stock option to purchase 59,034 shares of AEON Class A common stock and 177,103 restricted stock units (RSUs) under the 2025 Employment Inducement Incentive Award Plan [2][3] - The stock option and RSUs will vest over four years, with 25% vesting on each annual anniversary of the vesting commencement date [3] Group 2 - AEON Biopharma is focused on developing its proprietary botulinum toxin complex, ABP-450, for various therapeutic indications, initially targeting the neurosciences market [4] - ABP-450 is the same botulinum toxin complex marketed for cosmetic use by Evolus under the name Jeuveau and is manufactured in compliance with cGMP [4] - The company holds exclusive development and distribution rights for therapeutic indications of ABP-450 in the U.S., Canada, EU, UK, and other territories [4]

Core Points - AEON Biopharma has appointed Rob Bancroft as President and CEO, effective April 29, 2025, with Bancroft also joining the Board of Directors [1][2] - Bancroft has over 25 years of experience in the life sciences industry, including leadership roles at Revance Therapeutics and Allergan, where he was involved in the commercialization of BOTOX [2][3] - The company is focused on advancing its ABP-450 program along the 351(k) biosimilar regulatory pathway, aiming to bring ABP-450 to the U.S. market for all current and future BOTOX indications under a single FDA approval [2][3] Company Overview - AEON Biopharma is a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company developing ABP-450 (prabotulinumtoxinA) for various therapeutic indications, initially targeting the neurosciences market [3] - ABP-450 is the same botulinum toxin complex currently marketed for cosmetic use as Jeuveau by Evolus and is manufactured in compliance with cGMP [3] - The product has been approved as a biosimilar in Mexico and India, with AEON holding exclusive rights for therapeutic indications in the U.S., Canada, EU, UK, and other territories [3]