Core Viewpoint - The technology sector showed mixed performance in February, with US cloud vendors raising capital expenditures, but concerns over capital return rates and cash flow increased, putting pressure on some cloud services and SaaS segments. The focus of narratives and valuations has shifted towards computing power, advanced processes, equipment, storage, CPO, and liquid cooling [1]. Group 1 - The demand for computing power is expected to continue exceeding expectations both domestically and internationally, with upstream segments likely to maintain a favorable outlook and price increases, making it a clear growth direction for technology sector allocation [1]. - Recent developments from overseas companies like OpenAI and Anthropic are driving demand for cloud computing power and tokens beyond expectations, with dual growth in inference and training due to competition in large models. However, ROI and cash flow remain variables, making upstream segments more certain for performance growth [1]. - Domestic large models are rapidly iterating, with models like GLM-5, KIMI K2.5, and Seedance 2.0 gradually closing the gap with overseas counterparts, achieving usability and price increases in areas such as coding and video generation, indicating extreme tightness in computing power [1]. Group 2 - Upcoming events such as NVIDIA's GTC and OFC conferences may validate new technology trends in CPO/NPO and LPU, with a dense release period for next-generation large models starting in March. Domestic DeepSeek V4+ and Ascend 950 are expected to launch, suggesting a focus on new technology trends and domestic computing power [2].

中信证券研报指出，2月科技板块表现显示，美股云厂商集体上调Capex，但市场对资本回报率和现金 流的担忧加重，导致部分云服务与SaaS板块承压，叙事和估值重心向算力、先进制程、设备、存储、 CPO、液冷等环节上移。 展望3月，我们认为海外与国内算力需求均持续超预期背景下，上游环节景气度与涨价有望持续，仍是 当下科技板块配置"景气成长"方向最确定的主线。一方面，海外OpenAI和Anthropic的最新消息继续推 动云算力与Token需求超预期，大模型竞技带动推理与训练双线增长，CSP持续上修投资，但ROI和现金 流仍存在变量，上游更具业绩增长确定性。另一方面，国产大模型加速迭代，如GLM-5、KIMI K2.5、 Seedance2.0等正逐步缩小与海外差距，部分模型在coding、视频生成等应用领域实现可用和涨价，体现 算力极度紧张。全产业链从云、Token/API、到存储、先进制造、光通信、液冷、电力等环节价格普遍 上升。 ...