[Table_Title] 研究报告 Research Report 24 Aug 2025 本周A股进入加速上涨阶段，结构性轮动特征进一步凸显： 香港策略 Hong Kong Strategy 短期快速上攻临近尾声，中期聚焦反转方向 Short-Term Rally Nearing Its End, Mid-Term Focus on Reversal Themes 周林泓 Amber Zhou 李加惠 Jiahui Li, CFA amber.lh.zhou@htisec.com jh.li@htisec.com [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus [Table_summary] (Please see APPENDIX 1 for English summary) 上周我们认为增量资金入场会提振A股，而Jackson Hole会议召开前，全球风险偏好或阶段性承压。本周A股市场进入 加速上涨阶段，而美股在会议前表现谨慎，直到鲍威尔放鸽才收回本周跌幅。近期A股多重利好落地：科技继续突破 预期，上证综指连续突破3700点和3800点，加上美联储9月降息概率大增。对于下周， ...

Core Viewpoint - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown strong upward momentum, reaching a new high for the year, with significant trading volume across the A-share market [1] Market Performance - As of the market close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.5% to 3665.92 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.53% to 11351.63 points, the ChiNext Index climbed by 1.24% to 2409.4 points, and the STAR 50 Index surged by 1.91% [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 190.57 billion yuan [1] Sector Analysis - The pharmaceutical, steel, non-ferrous metals, and liquor sectors experienced declines, while the semiconductor sector saw strong gains [1] - Other sectors such as coal, insurance, real estate, brokerage, oil, and banking also showed upward movement [1] - Concepts related to brain engineering, lithography machines, and liquid cooling servers were particularly active [1] Investment Insights - According to Zhongyou Securities, the current market rally since late June can be understood as a two-phase structure driven by bank dividends and a "de-involution" trend [1] - However, the attractiveness of bank dividends has diminished, and the "de-involution" phase may require a period of adjustment from policy expectations to real-world validation, potentially leading to a vacuum in buying momentum [1] - The focus should shift towards individual stock alpha logic over industry beta logic, emphasizing opportunities for valuation recovery in technology growth sectors, particularly in AI applications, computing power chains, and optical modules [1]

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry maintains a high level of prosperity, with positive expectations for the analog and memory sectors, driven by strong demand in North America and adjustments in supply chain forecasts for 2026 [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.11%, while the electronics sector increased by 1.65% over the past week, with the consumer electronics sub-sector seeing a notable rise of 4.27% [3]. - The Hang Seng Tech Index, Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, and Taiwan Information Technology Index also experienced gains of 1.17%, 2.72%, and 2.90%, respectively [3]. Group 2: Industry Trends - The recent surge in computing power in North America has become a key driver of market sentiment, particularly benefiting the switch and server industries due to changes in network architecture influenced by ASIC trends [3]. - Supply chains have recently revised upward their shipment forecasts for NVIDIA's GB series products for 2026, reinforcing the high growth trend in the computing chain [3]. - TSMC anticipates sustained strong demand for AI, with a moderate recovery in non-AI demand, leading to an upward revision of its annual revenue growth forecast from approximately 25% [3].

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The focus is on the North American cloud computing industry, particularly major players like Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon, and their capital expenditure (CapEx) related to AI and cloud services [1][2][4][5]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Capital Expenditure Growth**: North American cloud providers are expected to exceed $366 billion in total capital expenditure in 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of over 47%, driven primarily by Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon [1][2]. - **Google's Investment**: Google raised its 2025 CapEx guidance from $75 billion to $85 billion, a 62% increase year-on-year, with further growth anticipated in 2026 [2][4]. - **Meta's Strategic Goals**: Meta aims for "super intelligence" and has established a dedicated lab for this purpose, indicating a potential CapEx nearing $100 billion by 2026, driven by five key business opportunities [1][7]. - **Microsoft and Amazon's Commitment**: Microsoft plans to maintain over $30 billion in CapEx for the next fiscal quarter, while Amazon expects to sustain its investment levels in the second half of 2025 [2][4]. - **AI Industry Resilience**: Despite concerns over the delayed release of OpenAI's GPT-5, the AI industry continues to innovate, with significant advancements from companies like Anthropic and Xai [1][10]. Additional Important Content - **PCB Market Volatility**: The PCB sector has experienced significant fluctuations due to discussions around COVF/SOP technology paths and increased CapEx expectations from cloud providers [1][14]. - **ASIC Supply Chain Outlook**: The ASIC supply chain is expected to see significant demand elasticity by 2026, with emerging companies like New Feng Peng Ding and Dongshan Jingwang poised to enter the market [3][16]. - **Technological Innovations in PCB**: Innovations such as cobalt processes are being explored to simplify PCB structures, although challenges like heat dissipation and chip warping remain [3][17]. - **Market Trends and Future Projections**: The AI industry's growth is projected to continue, with hardware demand expected to rise significantly by 2026, despite short-term market fluctuations [11][15]. - **Investment Opportunities**: There is a recommendation to monitor potential market pullbacks to capitalize on investment opportunities, particularly in the PCB sector and traditional NB chain stocks [12][15][24]. Conclusion - The North American cloud computing industry is poised for substantial growth in capital expenditures, particularly in AI-related investments. Major players are demonstrating strong confidence in the future of AI, with ongoing innovations and strategic investments shaping the landscape. The PCB and ASIC markets are also highlighted as areas of potential growth and investment opportunity.

Core Viewpoint - The technology sector is expected to accelerate, driven by advancements in artificial intelligence and increased capital expenditure from cloud service providers [1][2] Group 1: Technology Sector Performance - The technology sector exhibited an N-shaped trend in the first half of 2025, with a rapid rise during the Spring Festival, followed by a market correction at the end of February [1] - By mid-April, market sentiment began to recover, although the technology sector was not the main focus, with innovative pharmaceuticals and new consumption industries performing well [1] - Since June, significant changes have occurred in the technology sector, with overseas tech companies reaching new stock price highs and capital expenditures from cloud vendors being revised upwards [1] Group 2: Artificial Intelligence Developments - The artificial intelligence industry is expected to enter a favorable phase, with global capital expenditure accelerating and the computing power chain experiencing an upward trend [1] - North America and China are maintaining high levels of investment in computing power, with overseas cloud service providers expected to continue increasing capital expenditures in mid-2025 [1] - The continuous iteration of foundational models is evident, with OpenAI expected to release GPT-5 in August, enhancing model capabilities [1][2] Group 3: AI Application Commercialization - The commercialization of AI applications is accelerating, with explosive growth in token consumption both domestically and internationally [2] - AI large models are expanding from isolated technological breakthroughs to broader industry applications, impacting software, edge computing, and productivity [2] - The emergence of agent collaboration models is driving competition among existing market players, with major internet companies exploring the integration of AI into their ecosystems [2] Group 4: Future Outlook - The technology market is anticipated to gain momentum in the second half of the year, with clearer performance guidance for overseas computing power chains [2] - Domestic technology trends indicate that large models are catching up with global advancements, and bottlenecks in computing power are expected to be resolved [2] - Upcoming releases of models like GPT-5 and DeepSeek R2 in August are expected to catalyze market activity, particularly in multi-modal capabilities [2]

Primary Market Review - The issuance scale of government bonds, local bonds, and policy financial bonds last week was 243.3 billion, 251.2 billion, and 162 billion respectively, with net financing amounts of 58.2 billion, 150.5 billion, and -65.4 billion [1] - The total issuance scale of non-financial credit bonds was 270.5 billion, with a net financing amount of 49 billion [1] Secondary Market Review - Interest rates experienced a downward fluctuation last week, influenced by factors such as the central bank's active fund injection, anti-involution trading, and the listing of science and technology innovation bond ETFs [2] Liquidity Tracking - The buyout reverse repurchase operations amounted to 1.4 trillion, with an OMO net injection of 130 million, indicating overall stable tax period funds, which eased after the tax period [3] Policy and Fundamentals - Q2 GDP grew by 5.2% year-on-year, with June industrial output increasing by 6.8% and retail sales by 4.8%. Cumulative fixed asset investment for the first half of the year rose by 2.8%. New loans in June reached 2.2 trillion, an increase of 110 billion year-on-year [4] Overseas Market - U.S. inflation in June was lower than expected, while retail sales remained strong, indicating that tariffs have a manageable impact on inflation. The S&P 500 rose by 0.6% over the week, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield remained flat [5] Equity Market - The Wind All A index has risen for four consecutive weeks, with a weekly average trading volume exceeding 1.5 trillion. There are signs of capital flowing out of the consumer sector due to CPI data and underwhelming performance from some food and beverage stocks, while the TMT sector remains strong. As of July 17, 2025, the total financing balance for All A was 1,891.142 billion, an increase of 30.647 billion from July 10, marking nine consecutive trading days of net growth [6] Bond Market Strategy Outlook - The bond market has preliminarily priced in a weakening economy for Q3 and has reacted to anti-involution policies and a recovery in risk appetite. However, the performance of non-spread varieties indicates a cautious outlook on liquidity. Future uncertainties regarding U.S. tariff policies, domestic economic changes, and policy responses may lead to fluctuations in bond yields. The anti-involution policy is expected to boost commodity prices and risk appetite in the short term, but the central bank's clear support for liquidity during the tax period suggests a high likelihood of maintaining a loose monetary stance. The bond market is likely to remain in a volatile pattern, favoring the holding of coupon assets. Trading positions should remain flexible, focusing on policy expectations and liquidity changes. In the convertible bond market, the index is experiencing high-level fluctuations, with differentiation in bank themes and notable performance in anti-involution themes and the computing robot industry chain. Current price levels show increased volatility in convertible bonds across various price bands, with diminished asymmetric risk advantages. Given the ongoing supply-demand structure, reinvestment pressure remains significant amid a trend towards bubble formation, necessitating a focus on niche bonds and structural opportunities within the industry chain [7]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **光通信 (Optical Communication)** industry and its related technologies, including **光模块 (Optical Modules)** and **激光芯片 (Laser Chips)**. Core Points and Arguments 1. **Market Trends and Indices**: The focus is on the **北正五零 (Beijing Stock Exchange 50)** index, which is considered a benchmark for new generation productivity and plays a significant role in IPO activities [1] 2. **Market Sentiment**: There is a noticeable shift in market sentiment, with a warning against chasing high prices as the risk-reward ratio diminishes [2][3] 3. **Performance of 光通信 Sector**: The 光通信 sector is highlighted for its valuation and growth potential, particularly in the context of the ongoing trade war affecting the North American supply chain [4] 4. **Domestic Production Growth**: The rapid pace of domestic production in 光芯片 (Optical Chips) is emphasized, with significant market share gains noted for PRC modules and high-power laser chips [5] 5. **Business Segmentation**: The company’s primary business is in telecommunications, with a smaller focus on data communication, which limits its exposure to AI-driven economic growth [6] 6. **Future Product Launches**: Anticipation for the launch of 300mW CW laser chips in Q4 2025 is noted, indicating a strategic focus on high-performance products [7] 7. **Quarterly Performance**: The first quarter showed a revenue growth of over 40%, with a significant contribution from CW laser products, which have a high gross margin [8] 8. **Market Dynamics**: The discussion includes insights on market dynamics, such as the need for catalysts to drive stock performance and the importance of aligning earnings with market expectations [9][10] 9. **Military and Semiconductor Insights**: There is a mention of military technology and semiconductor sectors, with a focus on potential growth driven by government contracts and AI-related developments [11][12] 10. **Investment Strategy**: The strategy emphasizes identifying certainty and elasticity in investments, particularly in semiconductor and AI sectors, with a cautionary note on market volatility [12][13] Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Pressure Points in the Market**: The concept of pressure zones in stock performance is discussed, indicating potential areas for upward movement [21] 2. **Technological Advancements**: The importance of technological advancements in solid-state batteries and AI applications is highlighted, suggesting a future focus on these areas [13][14] 3. **Investor Sentiment**: The need for investor sentiment to align with performance metrics is emphasized, indicating that market reactions may lag behind actual performance [9][10] 4. **Sector Rotation**: The potential for sector rotation is mentioned, with a focus on how different sectors may perform based on market conditions and technological developments [16][20] This summary encapsulates the key insights and discussions from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the 光通信 industry and related sectors.

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry or Company Involved - The discussion primarily revolves around the **mergers and acquisitions (M&A)** sector, particularly focusing on the **Beijing Stock Exchange (北交所)** and its evolving regulatory environment. Core Points and Arguments 1. **M&A Market Dynamics**: The current M&A environment is influenced by new regulatory frameworks that facilitate restructuring and acquisitions, particularly after earnings disclosure periods, which are seen as more favorable for market activities [1][4][9]. 2. **Institutional Investment Trends**: There is an upward trend in institutional investment allocations within the Beijing Stock Exchange, with expectations for further support from top-level planning [2][4]. 3. **Market Sentiment and Performance**: The market sentiment is mixed, with some sectors showing strong performance while others are experiencing normal adjustments. The average premium for short-term investments is reported at over 40% [3][4]. 4. **Regulatory Changes**: Recent adjustments in regulatory processes have improved efficiency, reducing the approval timeline for significant M&A transactions from 60-90 days to as little as five weeks for qualifying companies [4][6]. 5. **Payment Innovations**: Introduction of installment payment mechanisms in M&A transactions, allowing for a minimum upfront payment of 30%, aims to alleviate financial pressure on acquiring companies and link payment schedules to performance metrics [5][6]. 6. **Focus on Hard Technology**: The discussion highlights the importance of hard technology in M&A, emphasizing the need for strong supply chain integration and the role of private equity in facilitating these transactions [6][7]. 7. **Case Studies of M&A**: Several notable M&A transactions from the previous year are cited, illustrating successful integrations and the strategic rationale behind them, such as the acquisition of companies in the port equipment and transportation infrastructure sectors [7][8]. 8. **Future Outlook**: The potential for further M&A activity is anticipated, particularly with smaller companies benefiting from innovative payment structures that reduce financial burdens [8][9]. Other Important but Possibly Overlooked Content 1. **Market Volatility**: The discussion acknowledges the potential for market volatility and the need for investors to remain vigilant regarding sector performance and emerging trends [10][12]. 2. **Technological Advancements**: The conversation touches on advancements in satellite communication and robotics, indicating a shift towards high-tech sectors as focal points for investment [11][14]. 3. **Investment Strategies**: Recommendations for investment strategies include focusing on sectors with strong growth potential and being cautious of overvalued stocks, particularly in the context of the current market environment [15][16]. 4. **Sector-Specific Insights**: Insights into specific sectors such as military technology and light-weight materials are provided, suggesting areas for potential investment based on current trends and technological developments [10][17]. This summary encapsulates the key discussions and insights from the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the current state and future outlook of the M&A landscape and related sectors.

Group 1 - The A-share market showed an overall upward trend during the week of July 7-11, 2025, with an average daily trading volume of nearly 1.50 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 550 billion yuan compared to the previous week [2][14] - Major broad-based indices rose, with the All A Index increasing by 1.71%, and small-cap stocks outperforming, as evidenced by the 2.36% gains in both the CSI 1000 and the ChiNext Index [14] - The real estate, steel, and non-bank financial sectors led the gains, with increases of 6.12%, 4.41%, and 3.96% respectively, while coal, banking, and automotive sectors experienced declines [14] Group 2 - The "anti-involution" theme has gained traction since the Central Economic Committee meeting at the end of April, with a focus on "stabilizing employment" and other livelihood issues, which may constrain the implementation of capacity reduction policies [3][14] - The domestic GPU market is witnessing a surge with two major domestic GPU manufacturers receiving IPO approvals, filling the gap in the A-share market for fully functional GPUs [15] - The upcoming earnings disclosure period is expected to provide significant incremental information for the market, with sectors showing strong mid-year performance likely to attract investor attention [16] Group 3 - On July 11, the Shenzhen Stock Exchange announced revisions to the compilation scheme of the ChiNext Composite Index, including the introduction of a monthly removal mechanism for risk warning stocks and an ESG negative removal mechanism [17] - Seven fund companies have applied for ETFs related to the ChiNext Composite Index, indicating growing interest in this segment [17] Group 4 - The Active Equity Fund Selection Index rose by 0.90% last week, with a cumulative excess return of 12.029% since inception [4] - The Value Equity Fund Selection Index increased by 0.83%, with a cumulative excess return of -5.62% since inception [5] - The Balanced Equity Fund Selection Index rose by 0.61%, with a cumulative excess return of 4.41% since inception [6] - The Growth Equity Fund Selection Index increased by 0.83%, with a cumulative excess return of 16.24% since inception [7] - The Pharmaceutical Equity Fund Selection Index rose by 0.06%, with a cumulative excess return of 21.16% since inception [8] - The Consumer Equity Fund Selection Index decreased by 0.27%, with a cumulative excess return of 14.92% since inception [9] - The Technology Equity Fund Selection Index rose by 1.24%, with a cumulative excess return of 14.84% since inception [10] - The High-end Manufacturing Equity Fund Selection Index increased by 0.94%, with a cumulative excess return of -3.36% since inception [11] - The Cyclical Equity Fund Selection Index rose by 0.72%, with a cumulative excess return of 3.12% since inception [12]

Market Overview - Global major asset performance shows A-shares leading with a rise of 1.71% this week, while the Dow Jones Industrial Index fell by 1.02% [2][3] - The real estate sector led the A-share market with a weekly increase of 6.12%, while the banking sector saw a decline of 1.00% [2][4] Industry Performance - The real estate industry increased by 6.1% this week, while steel rose by 4.4%, and non-bank financials by 4.0% [4][5] - The banking sector experienced a decline of 1.0% year-to-date, while the real estate sector is down 1.4% [4] Strategic Insights - The market is showing signs of a "bull market atmosphere," with the A-share index breaking through key levels, indicating a potential for sustained upward movement [6][7] - The upcoming fiscal policies in the U.S. and the anticipated improvements in the supply-demand dynamics in China by 2026 are expected to enhance market sentiment [6][8] Key News - The introduction of a long-term assessment mechanism for insurance funds is expected to bring in significant capital inflows into the A-share market [10] - The recent announcements regarding the optimization of the ChiNext index and the implementation of new trading regulations are aimed at enhancing market liquidity and investment quality [11][12]