来源：浙商证券股份有限公司 核心观点 本周市场明显分化、呈现"沪弱深强"格局，多数宽基指数冲高回落。展望后市，由于以上证为代表的权 重指数勉强站上5 周均线，但还未收复前期上升趋势线；而在算力链"强势吸金"的背后，市场出现明显 分化格局。我们预计，在"权重不够强、行业大分化"的局面下，市场或继续维持区间震荡格局。配置方 面，基于"市场分化震荡继续，多看少动守株待兔"的判断：择时方面，建议持仓等待，切勿追涨杀跌、 垫高自身成本，同时根据不同宽基指数的"左脚"分类设定目标，伺机出击、分批介入。行业配置，建议 关注明显滞涨且份额扩张的券商板块、走势顺畅且历史上在12 月胜率较高的家电，以及近期利好频出 的机械设备。个股方面，留意医药、消费、AI 应用板块中相对低位的标的，同时关注年线上方低位滞 涨个股。 本周（2025-12-08 至2025-12-12）行情概况（1）主要指数：市场呈现"沪弱深强"格局，多数宽基指数冲 高回落。（2）板块观察：算力携硬科技领涨，大周期和消费走弱。（3）市场情绪：沪深成交环比上 升，IC 股指期货合约升水。（4）资金流向：两融余额小幅上升，有色金属ETF 净流入最多。（5）量 化"黑 ...

今天上午，以光通信为代表的算力链和商业航天板块是市场表现最强的两大主线。 前者重演了今年7—8月经常上演的一幕——批量龙头股集体创历史新高。今天上午，中际旭创、天孚通信、长光华芯、源杰科技、仕佳光子、东田微等个 股大涨，盘中股价均创历史新高。 商业航天板块近期持续上涨，机构认为板块迎来"政策面、业绩面、技术面"三重拐点。今天上午，板块再度大涨，盘面上一个鲜明的特征是股票名字中 含"航天"的个股盘中一度全部上涨。其中，航天动力、航天工程、航天科技、航天发展涨停，航天电子涨超8%。 截至上午收盘，上证指数上涨0.62%，深证成指上涨1.55%，创业板指上涨3.02%。 商业航天板块上涨 今天上午，商业航天板块掀起涨停潮，银邦股份、红相股份等个股"20CM"涨停。 12月7日央视《新闻联播》分别报道山东、海南在商业航天取得的成绩。在山东烟台海阳东方航天港全球首个半固定式海上试车试验平台上，这里正在为 液体运载火箭未来海上发射积极准备。平台突破防风、防晃、发动机火焰高温防护等多项关键技术，"十四五"以来，已成功保障我国4型固体火箭20次海 上发射任务。山东以海上发射为牵引，加快构建"天上有星、陆上有箭、海上有船、空中 ...

上天天基金APP搜索777注册即可领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 今天上午，以光通信为代表的算力链和商业航天板块是市场表现最强的两大主线。 前者重演了今年7—8月经常上演的一幕——批量龙头股集体创历史新高。今天上午，中际旭创、天 孚通信、长光华芯、源杰科技、仕佳光子、东田微等个股大涨，盘中股价均创历史新高。 商业航天板块近期持续上涨，机构认为板块迎来"政策面、业绩面、技术面"三重拐点。今天上午， 板块再度大涨，盘面上一个鲜明的特征是股票名字中含"航天"的个股盘中一度全部上涨。 其中， 航天动力、航天工程、航天科技、航天发展涨停，航天电子涨超8%。 截至上午收盘，上证指数上涨0.62%，深证成指上涨1.55%，创业板指上涨3.02%。 商业航天板块上涨 今天上午，商业航天板块掀起涨停潮，银邦股份、红相股份等个股"20CM"涨停。 | 以づ 昼壬 | 负责 | 仅状力 | 肃 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 5展开分析 | 最新 | 涨幅 ◆ | 流通市值 | | 天力复合 | 33.95 | 21.21% | 36.4亿 | | 融 920576 | | | ...

今天上午，以光通信为代表的算力链和商业航天板块是市场表现最强的两大主线。 《人民日报》报道，12月6日15时53分，长征八号甲运载火箭成功将卫星互联网低轨14组卫星发射升空。 前者重演了今年7—8月经常上演的一幕——批量龙头股集体创历史新高。今天上午，中际旭创（300308）、天孚通信（300394）、长光华芯、源杰科技、 仕佳光子、东田微（301183）等个股大涨，盘中股价均创历史新高。 商业航天板块近期持续上涨，机构认为板块迎来"政策面、业绩面、技术面"三重拐点。今天上午，板块再度大涨，盘面上一个鲜明的特征是股票名字中 含"航天"的个股盘中一度全部上涨。其中，航天动力（600343）、航天工程（603698）、航天科技（000901）、航天发展（000547）涨停，航天电子 （600879）涨超8%。 截至上午收盘，上证指数上涨0.62%，深证成指上涨1.55%，创业板指上涨3.02%。 商业航天板块上涨 今天上午，商业航天板块掀起涨停潮，银邦股份（300337）、红相股份（300427）等个股"20CM"涨停。 | | ▼ | 商业航天 2034.18 2.93% | | | | --- | --- | ...

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Core Viewpoint - The A-share market continues to exhibit a "two-eight" differentiation, with the banking sector leading the gains while technology stocks experience volatility, particularly influenced by AI trends [1][11]. Banking Sector - The banking sector remains a key stabilizing force for the market, with the Shenwan Banking Index rising by 1.89% [6]. - Major banks such as China Bank and Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) reached historical highs, with China Bank increasing by 5.17% and its market capitalization surpassing 2 trillion yuan, while ICBC rose by 1.58% with a market cap nearing 3 trillion yuan [6][10]. - The report from Kaiyuan Securities emphasizes the importance of large state-owned banks for stable returns and suggests a focus on regional banks with unique characteristics for flexible allocation [10]. Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector showed signs of recovery, with the Shenwan Real Estate Index increasing by 1.59% [4]. - Notable stocks such as I Love My Home and World Union experienced significant price surges, with some reaching their daily limit [4]. - Data indicates a 4.7% year-on-year increase in the transaction area of second-hand homes from January to October, with second-hand homes accounting for 44.8% of total transactions [4]. Technology Sector - The technology sector initially surged following Nvidia's strong quarterly performance but later faced a downturn, with the Shenwan Electronics Index dropping by 0.34% by midday [12][15]. - The performance of the TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications) sectors varied, with the computer index down by 0.45% and the communication index's gains narrowing to 0.2% [12]. - Despite concerns over valuation bubbles and sustainability of AI investments, recent earnings reports from leading tech companies have generally met expectations, indicating continued growth potential in the sector [16].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced a surprising strong recovery in the tail end of trading, particularly in the banking sector, which rebounded after a period of decline, indicating renewed investor interest in bank stocks [2][3][10]. Market Performance - As of the market close, the three major A-share indices showed mixed results, with the ChiNext index recovering from a 2% drop to close up 0.21%. The banking index rose by 1.28%, with several banks, including Industrial and Commercial Bank of China and China Construction Bank, seeing gains exceeding 3% [3][4]. Sector Analysis - There was a clear market divergence, with high-growth sectors like AI, internet, and biomedicine experiencing corrections, while traditional sectors such as banking, insurance, and public utilities saw a return of capital and increased stock prices [7][10]. - The banking sector had been in a downward trend since mid-July, with an overall decline exceeding 10%. Major state-owned banks like Everbright Bank and Bank of China saw declines of over 17% and 12%, respectively [8][10]. Capital Flow - On the day of the recovery, net inflows into bank stocks reached nearly 1.4 billion yuan, the highest among all sectors, with large orders accounting for over 22% of the total, indicating significant capital repositioning [10][11]. - Recent reports from Goldman Sachs indicated a surge in hedge fund investments in banks and insurance companies, suggesting a broader trend of renewed focus on financial stocks [11]. Dividend Considerations - The recent pullback in bank stocks was partly attributed to investors reallocating funds to higher-yield sectors, as well as the upcoming dividend distribution dates, which prompted some investors to take profits [12][14]. - For instance, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China announced a dividend of 0.1646 yuan per share, totaling 58.664 billion yuan, with the record date set for July 11, 2025 [14]. Long-term Outlook - Despite recent volatility, the long-term fundamentals for quality bank stocks remain intact, supported by strong capital inflows and a favorable interest rate environment. The anticipated easing of monetary policy could further enhance the attractiveness of high-dividend bank stocks [17][19]. - Predictions indicate a 1.0% year-on-year growth in net profit for listed banks in 2025, driven by improved net interest margins and increased provisions for potential risks [19][20]. Investor Sentiment - The recent market dynamics suggest a potential shift in investor sentiment, with funds that previously exited the banking sector beginning to return, as evidenced by a 3.2% increase in bank ETF shares since late September [21].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes optimism towards AI electronic cloth and AI copper foil, suggesting that the market potential may exceed expectations [1][3] - The report highlights the increasing competition in the AI new materials industry, with many leading companies entering the market, leading to divergent opinions among market participants [2] - The analysis suggests focusing on two types of companies: "grand slam" leaders like Zhongcai for electronic cloth and Tongguan for copper foil, and those with survival space that can achieve widespread use, indicating rapid technological maturity and cost reduction [3] Group 2 - The report indicates a high growth forecast for Keda Manufacturing, a leading local manufacturer in Africa, as the region seeks to enhance local supply chains and manufacturing capabilities [4] - Current market data shows the national average price for cement at 344 RMB per ton, with a year-on-year decrease of 35 RMB, and an average delivery rate of 29.17%, reflecting a decline [5] - Important corporate movements include Keda Manufacturing and Huaxin Cement releasing their semi-annual reports, and Huaxin Cement completing the acquisition of assets in Nigeria [6]

Market Overview - A-shares major indices rose last week, with trading volume remaining high [1] - Among 31 Shenwan first-level industries, communication, electronics, and comprehensive sectors performed relatively well [1] Macroeconomic Data Analysis - In July, national general public budget revenue reached 20,273 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, with central and local revenues growing by 2.2% and 3.1% respectively, marking the highest monthly growth this year [3] - Government fund revenue in July increased by 8.9% year-on-year, while government fund expenditure growth was 42.4% [3] - The first account revenue showed positive tax revenue growth for four consecutive months, while non-tax revenue declined [3] - Land transfer revenue continued to grow positively, linked to local governments actively selling quality land [3] - Overall, broad fiscal expenditure maintained positive year-on-year growth supported by government debt, with net financing close to 8 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 4.3 trillion yuan year-on-year [3] Stock Market Strategy Outlook - The market showed strong fluctuations last week, with liquidity remaining ample and a bullish trend supported by technology leaders [7] - Despite some concerns about economic data and stimulus expectations, favorable factors are outweighing these worries, with a supportive monetary policy environment [7] - The market is expected to maintain upward momentum without significant adjustments in August, with attention shifting to macro catalysts and trading indicators in September [7] Industry Insights - For defensive dividend sectors, it is recommended to reduce allocation or adjust the structure in the short term, favoring cyclical sectors with expected rebounds [9] - Focus on dividend stocks with catalysts, as well as stable and defensive attributes in Hong Kong stocks, financials, utilities, and precious metals [9] - In offensive sectors, technology remains a key focus, with opportunities arising from domestic policy stability and U.S. policy fluctuations [9] - Opportunities in domestic demand, technology, and overseas expansion are highlighted, with a focus on undervalued index-weighted stocks for potential capital inflows [8][9]

Investment Focus - The report indicates that incremental inflows are expected to support A-shares, while global risk appetite may face pressure ahead of the Jackson Hole symposium [1][5] - A-shares have entered an accelerated rally, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through 3,700 and 3,800 points, and a significant increase in the probability of a September Fed rate cut [1][6] - The report anticipates a potential gap-up for A-shares, with the Shanghai Composite possibly challenging 3,900 points, nearing the annual target of 4,000 points for 2025 [1][5] Market Dynamics - The Jackson Hole meeting raised the probability of a September rate cut to 81%, with markets pricing in easing expectations, although U.S. equities remained cautious [2][6] - The report highlights a structural rotation in A-shares, with a shift from GEM heavyweights to STAR Board heavyweights, and a rotation into beaten-down liquor stocks [9] - A-share average daily turnover increased to RMB 2.6 trillion, up RMB 500 billion from the previous week, indicating heightened market activity [9] Economic Indicators - The report notes that the 10-year government bond yields have risen by 15 basis points since early July, suggesting limited further upside under easing expectations [9] - The 1-month HIBOR has surged to 2.77%, exerting pressure on Hong Kong equities, although the Hang Seng Index saw slight gains due to A-share strength [9] - The AH premium index remained low at 125, which limits the performance of Hong Kong stocks relative to A-shares [9]