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京新药业20250916
2025-09-17 00:50
Summary of Jinxin Pharmaceutical Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Jinxin Pharmaceutical - **Industry**: Pharmaceutical Key Points Business Performance - Jinxin Pharmaceutical's finished drug business has shown continuous improvement in hospital, outpatient, and formulation export sectors, providing a solid performance guarantee for the company [2][3] - Profit is expected to achieve double-digit growth in 2025, with growth rates exceeding double digits in 2026 and beyond [2][3] - The pressure from accelerated depreciation is expected to decrease significantly after 2025, releasing approximately 100 million RMB in profit [2][3] - The main business profit is projected to reach 800 million RMB in 2025, leading to a potential company valuation of 12 billion RMB based on a 15x price-to-earnings ratio [2][3] Innovation Drug Commercialization - Significant progress has been made in the commercialization of innovative drugs, with the peak sales expectation for Tidasini raised from 1 billion RMB to 1.5 billion RMB [2][4] - The peak sales expectation for Kailaqin has also been increased from 500 million RMB to 1.5 billion RMB, providing substantial valuation flexibility for the company [2][4] Early Research and Development Focus - Jinxin Pharmaceutical is focusing on early-stage research in the cardiovascular and central nervous system (CNS) fields [2][5] - The company is developing LPA small molecule inhibitors, which have gained attention following Eli Lilly's successful Phase II clinical trial at the end of 2024 [2][5] - Other pharmaceutical companies, such as CSPC and Hengrui Medicine, have engaged in significant business development (BD) transactions related to LPA small molecule inhibitors, indicating the market's potential [2][5] - Pfizer is currently in concentrated BD negotiations with Jinxin regarding LPA small molecule inhibitors, which could lead to significant valuation flexibility if successful [2][5] Market Potential - The market potential for LPA small molecule inhibitors is highlighted by the substantial upfront payments and total licensing fees offered by major pharmaceutical companies [2][5] - Continuous monitoring of clinical progress and subsequent BD transactions is essential for assessing future opportunities [2][5]