Summary of Shenzhen Goodix Technology Co Ltd Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Shenzhen Goodix Technology Co Ltd - **Industry**: Greater China Technology Semiconductors - **Stock Rating**: Underweight [3] - **Price Target**: Rmb65.00, representing a downside of 22% from the current price of Rmb83.09 [3] - **Market Capitalization**: Rmb37,867 million [3] - **Average Daily Trading Value**: Rmb532 million [3] Financial Performance - **Fiscal Year Ending**: December - **Earnings Per Share (EPS)**: - 2024: Rmb1.32 - 2025 (estimated): Rmb1.29 - 2026 (estimated): Rmb1.43 - 2027 (estimated): Rmb1.64 [3] - **Revenue (Net)**: - 2024: Rmb4,375 million - 2025 (estimated): Rmb4,795 million - 2026 (estimated): Rmb5,781 million - 2027 (estimated): Rmb6,410 million [3] - **EBITDA**: - 2024: Rmb511 million - 2025 (estimated): Rmb643 million - 2026 (estimated): Rmb894 million - 2027 (estimated): Rmb1,003 million [3] - **Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio**: - 2024: 61.1 - 2025 (estimated): 64.6 - 2026 (estimated): 58.0 - 2027 (estimated): 50.8 [3] - **Return on Equity (ROE)**: - 2024: 7.5% - 2025 (estimated): 6.8% - 2026 (estimated): 7.2% - 2027 (estimated): 7.8% [3] Market Outlook - **Order Outlook**: Anticipation of better orders in the second half of the year, driven by strong smartphone seasonality in the fourth quarter [5] - **Ultrasonic Fingerprint Sensor**: - Full-year shipment estimate increased to 40 million units from 35 million due to increased penetration - Expected addressable market of 130 million units in 2026 and 180-200 million units in 2027 - Targeting over 60% market share by 2027 [5] - **NFC, eSE, eSIM Solutions**: - Expected market size of Rmb7 billion with a target of 30% market share - Current gross margin around 30% with potential for improvement [5] - **Other Products**: - Light sensor adoption in flagship smartphone models - Haptic driver in design phase - OLED TDDI product launch expected in 1H26, with commercialization in 2027 [5] Risks - **Upside Risks**: - Faster-than-expected market share expansion and new product rollout - New applications for fingerprint technology [8] - **Downside Risks**: - Slower-than-expected market share expansion and new product rollout - Weaker-than-expected gross margin despite improving cost structure [8] Valuation Methodology - **Key Assumptions**: - Cost of equity: 8.4% - Medium-term growth rate: 16.5% - Terminal growth rate: 4.9% [7] Conclusion Shenzhen Goodix Technology Co Ltd is positioned in a competitive semiconductor market with a focus on innovative products like ultrasonic fingerprint sensors and NFC solutions. Despite a strong market outlook, the company faces challenges in achieving its growth targets and maintaining margins. The current stock rating is underweight, reflecting cautious sentiment amid potential risks.