Lineage, Inc. (NASDAQ:LINE) is one of the Worst Performing Stocks to Invest in on the Dip. On November 11, RBC Capital reduced the price target on the company’s stock to $45 from $51, while keeping an “Outperform” rating after the Q3 2025 results, as reported by The Fly. As per the analyst, the company highlighted ongoing market softness, which has and would likely continue to impact the near-term performance. RBC Capital Reduces PT on Lineage (LINE) Stock That being said, the firm added that the LinOS r ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue increased by 3% year-over-year, while adjusted EBITDA rose by 2% to $341 million, marking a quarterly record for the company [5] - Total AFFO grew by 6% year-over-year, with AFFO per share at $0.85, reflecting a 6% decline year-over-year [5] - Same store physical occupancy improved by 50 basis points sequentially to 75%, although same store NOI declined by 3.6% year-over-year [5][6] Business Segment Data and Key Metrics Changes - Global warehousing segment revenue grew by 4%, with total NOI slightly increasing to $384 million, while same warehouse NOI declined by 3.6% [13] - Global integrated solutions segment saw flat revenue, but NOI grew by 16% to $65 million, with an NOI margin increase of 250 basis points to 17.9% [16] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The U.S. market is experiencing a 20% decline in import-export container volumes, impacting revenue and occupancy [26][27] - Despite excess supply, the company maintains a total estimated average physical occupancy of 75% for 2025, down only 3 percentage points from 2021 [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on driving competitive differentiation through customer success, leveraging network effects, and enhancing warehouse productivity [20] - The proprietary warehouse execution system, LinOS, has been deployed in seven sites, showing double-digit productivity improvements [20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management acknowledges near-term headwinds due to tariff uncertainties and lower U.S. new business expectations, but remains optimistic about long-term growth as the food industry normalizes [7][23] - The company expects a lower fourth quarter than previously anticipated, moving to the lower end of full-year guidance for both EBITDA and AFFO per share [19] Other Important Information - The company ended the quarter with total net debt of $7.55 billion and total liquidity of $1.3 billion [10] - Management is actively managing interest rate exposure and anticipates a total interest expense of $340 million to $360 million in 2026, approximately $80 million higher than the current year [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Discussion on expected lower U.S. new business in Q4 - Management noted that tariff uncertainty is impacting import-export volumes, particularly in the West U.S. business unit, leading to a forecast of lower new business in Q4 [26][27] Question: Update on pricing strategy during the quarter - Management confirmed that there was no change to the pricing strategy, with a net price increase between 1% and 2% expected for the year [32] Question: Expectations on physical occupancy and excess capacity - Management indicated that new supply is trickling in, with expectations that it will remain low, and they are optimistic about key markets absorbing new capacity [35][36] Question: Concerns about the impact of SNAP benefits lapse - Management stated that even if SNAP benefits were eliminated, the impact on total food consumption would be minimal, around 1% [76][77] Question: Insights on international performance versus U.S. - Management highlighted that international markets are performing better due to lower competitive pressure and better occupancy levels compared to the U.S. [54][55] Question: Acquisition strategy and market opportunities - Management remains disciplined in capital deployment and is monitoring market opportunities, but is not interested in issuing equity at undervalued levels [57][58] Question: Update on fresh and frozen demand trends - Management referenced third-party data indicating continual growth in fresh and frozen food categories, despite elevated food inflation [61][62]

Company Overview - Lineage Logistics (NASDAQ:LINE) is the global leader in cold storage with 3.1 billion cubic feet of dedicated real estate and has seen its stock price drop from $78 at IPO in June 2024 to $59.66 [1][3] - The current valuation at $59.66 represents a 17X multiple on consensus 2025 AFFO of $3.51, indicating that the stock has become more interesting at this lower price [3] Industry Overview - Demand for cold storage has been steadily increasing, driven by global food demand and a higher share of food distributed via temperature control [6][7] - The USDA projects continued growth in global food demand through 2050, influenced by population and income growth [7] - The cold storage industry is currently experiencing oversupply due to a significant increase in capacity (over 40% since 2019) and a slowdown in new building projects due to higher interest rates [18][24] Growth Potential - Lineage Logistics is positioned for growth through three main sources: occupancy recovery, margin expansion, and accretive consolidation [20][21] - Current physical pallet occupancy is at 78%, with potential for significant improvement as inventory levels normalize [19][25] - The company has a margin of 39%, with opportunities for improvement through operational efficiencies and automation [27][29] Operational Efficiency - Lineage is implementing a proprietary software called LinOS to optimize warehouse operations, which is expected to enhance efficiency and reduce labor costs [30][31] - The company currently has 82 out of 488 warehouses automated, with plans for further automation to improve margins [30] Market Position - As the market leader, Lineage has synergies in its customer network and can spread overhead costs over a larger revenue base, enhancing its competitive advantage [29] - The fragmented nature of the cold storage industry presents opportunities for Lineage to acquire smaller competitors and improve their operational efficiency [32] Long-term Outlook - The long-term fundamental outlook for cold storage remains strong, with Lineage's market leadership and operational efficiencies positioning it for potentially explosive growth [40] - The company anticipates a return to normal seasonality in inventory levels, which could significantly impact occupancy rates and overall performance [25][26]