RT Ignis Rex (@Ignis_Rex)Iran and India Have Come Face to Face. Iran Has Refused Permission for 22 Indian Ships to Pass Through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran Has Demanded That India First Return Its 3 Ships, Which It Had Seized to Please the United States.This Bold Decision by Iran Has Caused a Stir in New Delhi's Chambers, Where India Now Sees No Way to Meet Its Energy Needs Other Than Accepting Tehran's Conditions.India Had Seized Three Iranian Oil Tankers in February at That Time When It Was Trying to Strik ...

Two tankers carrying liquefied petroleum gas are heading to India after crossing the Strait of Hormuz, providing some relief to acute shortages as the war in the Persian Gulf disrupts supply of the cooking fuel https://t.co/7BcslWLgtn ...

Group 1 - Prime Minister Mark Carney's recent trip to India aimed to reset political and trade relations, yielding tangible results for Canadian companies [1] - RBC Capital Markets highlighted several companies benefiting from improved relations, including Cameco Corp., AltaGas Ltd., Brookfield Infrastructure Partners LP, Canadian National Railway Co., and Bombardier Inc. [1] - Cameco's agreement to supply India with nearly 22 million pounds of uranium over the next nine years is seen as a positive development for the company [1] Group 2 - AltaGas is positioned as a logical participant in the upcoming deal to ship liquefied petroleum gas between Canada and India [1] - Canadian National Railway is well-placed to benefit from transporting commodities to the British Columbia coast for export [1] - Bombardier is expected to gain from India's interest in establishing strategic partnerships in defense procurement, space development, and civil aviation [1]

Since hostilities broke out in the Middle East, disrupting a large share of India’s total fuel imports, panic purchases of liquefied petroleum gas skyrocketed https://t.co/dkU1EXzLy8 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The new TOHOKU 31 tightened 5bps from RO at T+70, while the new NTT Float 31 and OCBCSP 36 hovered around ROs. The secondary Chinese IG space overall closed unchanged. There were balanced flows on TMT names, better buying in CCAMCL FRNs and front - end ORIEAS, and better selling on FRESHK 27 - 29s. EHICAR 26 dropped 0.5pt, while EHICAR 27 closed unchanged. In HK, sentiment on HK property gradually recovered, with some bonds gaining and others losing. In Chinese properties, some bonds gained and some lost. In KR space, new issues widened, and long - end bonds traded wider. JP insurance subs and Yankee AT1s remained stable. In SE Asian space, MEDCIJ 27 was down, and some bonds rose. In the Middle East, PBs were selling long - end KSA/ARAMCO, and global RMs were buying 2 - 5yr FABUHs. The LGFV space closed largely unchanged [2] - The new SUMITR Float 29s tightened 10bps from RO at SOFR+71, and SUMITR Float 31s tightened 17 - 18bps from RO at SOFR+89. Fixed - rate SUMITR new issues had different performances, and Asia IG space were 2 - 4bps wider. INCLEN/INGPHL/RPVIN had solid 3QFY26 earnings and were on track to FY26 guidance. YLLGSP's FY25 results stabilized with narrowing losses, a rebound in gross margin, and a healthy gearing ratio, and YLLGSP 26 was unchanged [3] - ReNew Energy (RNW)'s credit profile is underpinned by robust operating cash inflows and scalable advantages. INCLEN 4.5 04/18/27 is preferred within the ReNew Energy complex, and a buy is maintained on it despite less compelling valuation. RNW benefits from diversification and resilient cash flow generation, with revenue and adj. EBITDA increasing and loss before tax narrowing in 3QFY26 and 9MFY26. It is on track to meet FY26 guidance, and is pivoting to a more solar - heavy portfolio, which is credit positive. Leverage is expected to decline, and it early redeemed a bond and has refinancing risk for some outstanding bonds [7][10][13][14] Summary by Directory Trading Desk Comments - New issuance: TOHOKU 31 tightened 5bps from RO at T+70; NTT Float 31 and OCBCSP 36 hovered around ROs [2] - Secondary Chinese IG space: Overall closed unchanged, with balanced flows on TMT names, better buying in CCAMCL FRNs and front - end ORIEAS, and better selling on FRESHK 27 - 29s [2] - EHICAR: EHICAR 26 dropped 0.5pt, EHICAR 27 closed unchanged [2] - HK property: Sentiment gradually recovered, NWDEVL/VDNWDL Perps gained 0.1 - 1.3pts, HYSAN 4.85 Perp edged 0.6pt higher, MTRC 5.625 Perp/LASUDE 26 were 0.1pt higher, FAEACO 12.814 Perp lost 0.4pt [2] - Chinese properties: FUTLAN 28/FTLNHD 26 - 27 gained up to 0.6pt, new FTLNHD 29 was priced at 97.095 and YTM 13%, VNKRLE 27 - 29 lost 0.5pt, LNGFOR 27 - 32 were 0.1pt lower to 0.3pt higher [2] - KR space: New issues DAESEC 29 - 31 widened 1bp, long - end EIBKOR/LGENSO/POHANG traded 1 - 3bps wider [2] - JP insurance subs and Yankee AT1s: Remained stable with flows largely from retail accounts [2] - SE Asian space: MEDCIJ 27 was down by 0.3pt, rest of MEDCIJ 26 - 30s were unchanged to 0.1pt higher, ACPM Perps rose 0.9 - 1.3pts, ACNRGY 5.1 Perp gained 1.4pts [2] - Middle East: PBs were selling long - end KSA/ARAMCO, global RMs were buying 2 - 5yr FABUHs [2] - LGFV space: Closed largely unchanged amid moderate two - way flows [2] Analyst Comments - INCLEN/INGPHL/RPVIN: Had solid 3QFY26 earnings and were on track to FY26 guidance [3][7] - YLLGSP: FY25 results stabilized with narrowing losses, gross margin rebounded to 27.4% in FY25 from 9.4% in FY24, and gearing ratio was 43.6%. YLLGSP 26 was unchanged [3] - ReNew Energy (RNW): Credit profile is underpinned by robust operating cash inflows and scalable advantages. INCLEN 4.5 04/18/27 is preferred. In 3QFY26, revenue rose 36% yoy to INR25.1bn, adj. EBITDA increased 54% yoy to INR21.4bn, and loss before tax narrowed by 83% yoy to INR505mn. In 9MFY26, revenue rose 48% yoy to INR100.4bn, adj. EBITDA increased 31% yoy to INR74.8bn, and profit before tax up 83% yoy to INR12.8bn. It is on track to meet FY26 guidance, is pivoting to a more solar - heavy portfolio, and leverage is expected to decline. It early redeemed USD525mn RNW 7.95 07/28/26 and has refinancing risk for some outstanding bonds [7][10][13][14] Macro News Recap - S&P (-0.54%), Dow (+0.03%) and Nasdaq (-1.18%) were mixed on Thursday. US latest initial jobless claims were +212k, lower than the market expectation of +217k. UST yield was lower on Thursday, with 2/5/10/30 year yield at 3.42%/3.57%/4.02%/4.67% [6] Offshore Asia New Issues Priced | Issuer/Guarantor | Size (USD mn) | Tenor | Coupon | Priced | Issue Rating (M/S/F) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Emirate of Abu Dhabi | 1250/1750 | 5yr/10yr | 3.75%/4.25% | T+20/T+25 | -/AA/AA | | New Metro Global | 355 | 3yr | 11.8% | 13.0% | -/B - /- | | Qatar Islamic Bank | 750/500/750 | 5yr/3yr/3yr | 4.402%/3.95%/SOFR+71 | T+80/T+53/SOFR+71 | -/-/A | | Sumitomo Mitsui Trust | 500/750/500 | 5yr/5yr/10yr | 4.20%/SOFR+89/4.8% | T+65/SOFR+89/T+80 | A1/A/- | [20] Pipeline - No Offshore Asia New Issues Pipeline Today [21] News and Market Color - Onshore primary issuances: 76 credit bonds were issued yesterday with an amount of RMB53bn. Month - to - date, 1,041 credit bonds were issued with a total amount of RMB795bn raised, representing a 27.2% yoy decrease [22] - ARAMCO: Canceled some liquefied petroleum gas deliveries after damage to a delivery system at its Juaymah facility [22] - CKHH: Agreed to sell 100% of UK Power Networks Holdings to France's Engie for cUSD14.2bn [22] - CTFSHK: 1HFY26 adjusted EBITDA rose 0.97% yoy to HKD3.6bn (cUSD459mn) [22] - DALWAN: Sold Changzhou Xinbei Wanda Plaza Investment [22] - FOSUNI: Fosun pharma business to issue corporate bonds for up to RMB6bn (cUSD872.7mn) [22] - KDB: Will review the privatisation of Korean shipping firm HMM after the shipper's relocation to Busan is completed [22] - IIFOIN: Plans to raise USD500 - 750mn via external commercial borrowings and USD social bonds in Mar'26 [22] - NIO: Certain Chinese investors will infuse RMB2.3bn (cUSD329mn) in its subsidiary, GeniTech, by subscribing to its shares [22] - PTTGC: Estimated its capex for the 2026 - 2030 period totaled USD553mn [29] - TAISEM: Net revenue up 32% in FY25 to TWD3.8tn (cUSD121.6bn) [29]

Trade Agreement Overview - The trade agreement between the US and Indonesia is expected to lower US tariffs and facilitate the purchase of approximately $33 billion in American goods by Indonesia [1][2] - Indonesia will avoid a threatened 32% tariff and instead face a 19% rate for most goods, enhancing trade relations [2][8] Economic Impact on Indonesia - Indonesia will eliminate levies on over 99% of US goods and remove non-tariff barriers, which is anticipated to narrow its $16 billion trade surplus with the US [4][8] - The agreement includes significant imports from the US, such as $15 billion in energy, $13.5 billion in commercial aircraft, and $4.5 billion in agricultural commodities [5] Benefits for the US - The pact aims to expand access to Indonesia's consumer market of over 280 million people, providing American companies with a more level playing field [3][9] - The agreement also addresses critical minerals, allowing US companies to extract them under favorable terms, which aligns with US efforts to reduce supply-chain dependence on China [7] Regulatory and Investment Changes - Indonesia will reform its pre-shipment inspection processes and eliminate tariffs on digital services, facilitating smoother trade [6] - The country has committed to facilitating $10 billion in outbound direct investment to the US, including in engineering, construction, and energy projects [6] Context and Challenges - The agreement comes amid market headwinds for Indonesia, including concerns over governance and credit outlook, which could impact investor confidence [11] - Lower duties may support foreign-exchange inflows as the Indonesian rupiah trades near an all-time low against the dollar [12]

Core Insights - Antero Midstream Corporation (AM) is scheduled to report its fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 11, after market close [1] - In the last reported quarter, AM's adjusted earnings of 24 cents per share fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate of 25 cents due to increased operating expenses, although higher gathering and compression volumes helped mitigate the impact [1] Earnings Performance - AM has beaten earnings estimates in two of the last four quarters, missed in one, and reported breakeven in another, resulting in an average earnings surprise of 3.26% [2] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share remains at 24 cents, reflecting no revisions in the past week, which indicates a 4.4% improvement from the same quarter last year [3] Revenue Expectations - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for revenues in the fourth quarter is projected at $293.9 million, representing a 2.2% increase from the year-ago figure [3][8] - AM is expected to generate revenue from stable, fee-based contracts primarily with Antero Resources Corporation for the transportation and processing of natural gas and liquefied petroleum gas [4] Earnings Prediction - The earnings model suggests a potential earnings beat for AM, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +0.84% and a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold) [5] - The company is anticipated to report revenues from its pipeline, gathering, compression, processing, and water services assets [8]

Core Viewpoint - Santos anticipates increased production in 2026, driven by the Barossa gas project and the Pikka oil development, despite previous delays in the Darwin LNG plant [1][2] Production and Operational Updates - The first cargo from the Darwin LNG plant is being loaded onto the LNG tanker Kool Blizzard, destined for Sakai, Japan, following successful drilling in the Barossa gas field [2] - Production from Barossa gas and Pikka is expected to increase by up to 30% in 2026 [2] - Pikka phase one is nearing mechanical completion, with first oil expected in Q1 2026 [2] Financial Performance - For Q4 2025, total sales revenue was A$1.23 billion, a decrease of 12.1% from A$1.4 billion in Q4 2024 [3] - Free cash flow from operations in Q4 was approximately A$380 million, up 30% from the prior quarter, totaling around A$1.8 billion for the full year [3][6] - Quarterly production rose 5% to 22.3 million barrels of oil equivalent (mboe), with full-year production at 87.7 mboe [3] Sales Volume and Revenue Breakdown - Sales volumes increased 15% quarter-on-quarter to 24.8 mboe in Q4, with total sales volumes for the year reaching 93.5 mboe [4] - LNG sales revenue in Q4 was A$780 million, down 9.1% year-on-year, while domestic sales gas revenue increased by 5.9% to A$268 million [4] - Crude oil revenue fell 61.8% to A$66 million, and condensate revenue decreased by 1.9% to A$101 million, while liquefied petroleum gas revenue rose by 7.7% to A$14 million [4] Operational Highlights - Production commenced at the Hides F2 well in Papua New Guinea at an average rate of 60 million standard cubic feet per day [5] - Domestic gas production in Western Australia increased by around 19% due to project initiatives [5] - The company secured a mid-term LNG supply contract and is preparing for the Beetaloo Basin appraisal programme planned for Q3 2026 [5]

Core Viewpoint - On January 16, the domestic futures market for crude oil and related products experienced a significant decline, with major contracts dropping over 3% [1]. Group 1: Price Movements - As of January 16, the main crude oil futures contract fell by 3.16%, settling at 438.10 yuan per barrel [1]. - The main fuel oil futures contract decreased by 3.47%, closing at 2529.00 yuan per ton [1]. - Low sulfur fuel oil futures dropped by 2.84%, ending at 3045.00 yuan per ton [1]. - Liquefied petroleum gas futures declined by 2.73%, with a closing price of 4128.00 yuan per ton [1]. Group 2: Futures Price Data - The opening price for SC crude oil was 441.80 yuan, with a previous close of 446.60 yuan and a last settlement of 452.40 yuan [2]. - Fuel oil opened at 2558.00 yuan, with a previous close of 2586.00 yuan and a last settlement of 2620.00 yuan [2]. - The opening price for liquefied petroleum gas was 4203.00 yuan, with a previous close of 4233.00 yuan and a last settlement of 4244.00 yuan [2]. - Low sulfur fuel oil had an opening price of 3062.00 yuan, with a previous close of 3087.00 yuan and a last settlement of 3134.00 yuan [2]. Group 3: Warehouse Data - As of January 15, fuel oil futures warehouse receipts were at 0 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [3]. - The warehouse receipts for asphalt futures were 30,810 tons, remaining stable compared to the previous day, while the warehouse receipts for asphalt increased by 1,270 tons to 16,910 tons [3]. - Low sulfur fuel oil warehouse receipts remained at 18,280 tons, unchanged from the previous day [3]. - The warehouse receipts for liquefied petroleum gas were at 4,194 hands, also unchanged from the previous day [3]. Group 4: Basis Data - The basis data indicates that fuel oil, liquefied petroleum gas, and low sulfur fuel oil contracts are experiencing a 'backwardation' phenomenon, where spot prices exceed futures prices [3]. - The basis for fuel oil is 50.20%, with a spot price of 5262.5 yuan and a futures price of 2620 yuan [3]. - The basis for liquefied petroleum gas is 3.92%, with a spot price of 4417.5 yuan and a futures price of 4244 yuan [3]. - The basis for low sulfur fuel oil is 3.51%, with a spot price of 3199 yuan and a futures price of 3087 yuan [3].

Core Insights - Energy Transfer (ET) is currently trading below its 50-day simple moving average (SMA), indicating a short-term bearish trend, with a stock price of $16.39 as of December 24, 2025, down 23.6% from its 52-week high of $21.45 [1][7] - Over the past six months, ET units have declined by 6.4%, which is worse than the Zacks Oil and Gas - Production Pipeline - MLB industry's loss of 1.7% [5] - The company generates 90% of its revenue from fee-based contracts, which limits its exposure to commodity price fluctuations [7][12] Company Overview - Energy Transfer operates over 140,000 miles of pipelines and related infrastructure across 44 U.S. states, with a diversified asset portfolio that supports stable earnings [10][11] - The firm plans to invest $4.6 billion in growth projects in 2025 to further enhance its asset base [10] - Energy Transfer is a leading exporter of liquefied petroleum gas and is expanding its natural gas liquids (NGL) export facilities to meet rising global demand [8] Financial Performance - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Energy Transfer's earnings per unit indicates year-over-year growth of 3.91% for 2025 and 15.25% for 2026 [17] - The current quarterly cash distribution rate is 33.25 cents per common unit, with a distribution yield of 8.11%, outperforming the industry average of 6.21% [24] - Energy Transfer's trailing 12-month return on equity (ROE) is 10.71%, which is lower than the industry average of 13.28% [25] Market Position - ET's current trailing 12-month Enterprise Value/Earnings before Interest Tax Depreciation and Amortization (EV/EBITDA) is 8.9X, compared to the industry average of 10.53X, indicating that ET is trading at a discount relative to its peers [21] - The company has contracted over 6 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of pipeline capacity under agreements with a weighted average term of 18 years, expected to generate over $25 billion in firm transportation fee revenues [13][15]