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【互联网传媒】AppLovin营收和EBITDA维持高增长,电商业务长期潜力尚待释放——美股互联网传媒行业跟踪报告三十(付天姿)
光大证券研究· 2025-08-10 00:03
Core Viewpoint - AppLovin reported its Q2 2025 earnings, showing strong net profit growth despite revenue falling slightly short of expectations, leading to a 12% increase in stock price following the announcement [4][5]. Group 1: Q2 2025 Performance - AppLovin achieved revenue of $1.259 billion in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 77%, but 0.94% below Refinitiv consensus estimates [5]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $1.018 billion, reflecting a 99% year-on-year growth and exceeding consensus estimates by 2.12% [5]. - The net profit reached $820 million, a 164% increase year-on-year, surpassing consensus estimates by 15.75% [5]. Group 2: Q3 2025 Guidance - For Q3 2025, AppLovin expects revenue between $1.32 billion and $1.34 billion, with a midpoint of $1.33 billion, which is 0.99% above consensus estimates [6]. - The company anticipates adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 to be between $1.07 billion and $1.09 billion, with a midpoint of $1.08 billion, exceeding consensus estimates by 2.47% [6]. - The projected adjusted EBITDA margin for Q3 2025 is 81%, which is 2.2 percentage points higher than consensus expectations [6]. Group 3: Business Drivers - The revenue growth in Q2 2025 was primarily driven by game advertising, with the MAX market maintaining double-digit growth, significantly outpacing the in-app purchase game market [7]. - AppLovin's penetration rate among game advertisers exceeds 70%, with stable re-investment from top clients, supported by the AXON 2.0 model that accelerates advertising expansion [7]. - However, the growth outlook is challenged by slowing industry advertising budget growth and high penetration rates in the gaming sector, necessitating efficiency improvements and penetration into smaller clients [7]. Group 4: E-commerce Development - AXON, as a self-service core platform, has undergone significant upgrades, including credit card billing and automated workflows, gaining recognition from existing advertisers [8]. - The e-commerce segment is currently in a preparatory phase, with annual revenue around $1 billion and advertiser penetration below 1%, facing short-term challenges [8]. - Long-term plans include launching AXON in major international markets by October 2025 and initiating paid marketing customer acquisition in the first half of 2026, with approximately 600 advertisers already onboard [9].