查看完整报告 点击注册小程序 本订阅号中所涉及的证券研究信息由光大证券研究所编写，仅面向光大证券专业投资者客户，用作新媒体形势下研究 信息和研究观点的沟通交流。非光大证券专业投资者客户，请勿订阅、接收或使用本订阅号中的任何信息。本订阅号 难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不便，敬请谅解。光大证券研究所不会因关注、收到或阅读本订阅号推送内容而视相 关人员为光大证券的客户。 报告摘要 特别申明： 事件： 美国东部时间7月23日盘后，谷歌发布25Q2业绩公告。截至北京时间7月24日8:00，谷歌盘后股价上涨 1.73%。 谷歌25Q2营收超预期加速增长，净利润不及预期 25Q2谷歌实现营业收入964.28亿美元（vs 彭博一致预期+2.62%，下文简称一致预期），同比增长14%， 相比25Q1增速提升；25Q2谷歌实现营业利润312.7亿美元，同比增长14%；净利润281.96亿美元（vs一致 预期-13.78%），同比增长19.4%，净利润低于预期主要受Other Bets业务亏损和投资亏损拖累。 搜索和Youtube广告业务强劲，驱动谷歌广告收入重回同比加速增长 25Q2谷歌广告收入713.4亿美元，高于一致预期2. ...

2025 年 7 月 23 日 晨会速递 分析师点评 市场数据 行业研究 【建材】中央城市工作会议召开，国家发改委要求防止低空重复建设及恶性竞争—— 建材、建筑及基建公募 REITs 周报（7 月 12 日-7 月 18 日）(买入) 中央城市工作会议 7 月 14 日至 15 日在北京举行，会议部署城市工作 7 个方面的重 点任务，在城市建设端侧重于更新改造而非大拆大建，注重解决民生需求，强调城市 发展的存量提质增效。国家发改委召开专题会议，要求防止低空重复建设及恶性竞争。 因地制宜有序推进及统一标准发展预计将是"低空经济"下一步发展的重点。低空基 建落地或将低于市场预期，更加注重高质量的落地发展。 【机械】6 月对美出口继续降温，工程机械品类出口保持高景气度--机械行业海关总 署出口月报(十三)(买入) 6 月向北美地区出口持续降温，工程机械品类出口仍保持较高景气度。1-6 月，我国 出口至北美地区的电动工具、草坪割草机累计金额分别同比-7%、-4%，分别环比 1-5 月同比增速变动-5pt、-3pct;1-6 月大类工程机械累计出口同比增速保持双位数挖掘 机、拖拉机、矿山机械累计增速分别达到 22%、2 ...

四家公司联系方式相同或许并非偶然，谁在背后操盘？每年数千万元的短信业务背后是否有真实的商业背景？大几千万的资金是否被体外循环用到别处？祥 源文旅的回应为何与事实不符？一切还有待监管的进一步追问。 多家供应商、客户使用同一联系方式 近日，祥源文旅回复了交易所的年报问询函，详细解释了多家供应商与客户共用一个联系方式所引发的关联关系质疑。 然而，记者注意到，在关于济宁屹博实际控制人是谁的问题上，祥源文旅的回复却与事实不符，其是有意隐瞒实际情况还是另有隐情也引发关注。 祥源文旅回应称济宁屹博的实际控制为"张某"，而记者深入调查发现，济宁屹博与山东荣润实际控制人同为自然人刘明，而张某在2025年1月份就已经退出 公司。而山东赢联互通的实控人也并非祥源文旅回应中的"于某"。 记者深入调查发现，在四家公司中起到核心作用的刘明还曾是祥润云小股东杭州国润实控人的下属。 不合常理的是，祥源文旅子公司祥润云每年从山东荣润采购数千万元的短信业务而同为刘明实际控制的济宁屹博却是祥润云短信业务的客户，自家兄弟公司 经营短信业务却为何多此一举从祥润云采购？ 交易所在监管问询函中指出，2024年年报显示，报告期内公司第一大客户为山东美亨信息 ...

Core Points - The company announced a profit distribution plan for the fiscal year 2024, which includes cash dividends and stock bonuses [2][4][6] Distribution Plan - The distribution plan includes a cash dividend of CNY 0.136 per share, a bonus of 0.2 shares for every share held, and a capital increase of 0.1 shares per share held [2][4] - The total cash dividend to be distributed amounts to CNY 70,587,992.96, with 103,805,872 shares as bonus shares and 51,902,936 shares as capital increase, resulting in a new total share capital of 674,738,168 shares [4][11] Shareholder Eligibility - The distribution is applicable to all shareholders registered with the China Securities Depository and Clearing Corporation Limited Shanghai Branch as of the close of trading on the record date [3][4] Taxation Details - For individual shareholders holding unrestricted circulating shares, no personal income tax will be withheld on the cash dividend of CNY 0.136 per share [8] - For QFII shareholders, a 10% corporate income tax will be withheld, resulting in a net cash dividend of CNY 0.1024 per share [9][10] Earnings Dilution - Following the implementation of the stock bonus plan, the diluted earnings per share for the fiscal year 2024 is calculated to be CNY 0.3467 [11]

Investment Rating - The report gives an "Overweight" rating for the internet media industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector's performance compared to the overall market [1]. Core Insights - The global commercialization of AI applications is progressing rapidly, with companies like Figma planning an IPO. Chinese firms are focusing on emotional consumption and overseas expansion to break through in monetization [2]. - AI creative tools, particularly from Meitu, are highlighted as leading global players, with a strong focus on meeting the needs of Gen Z female consumers [2]. - The gaming sector is experiencing a technical correction, but the long-term outlook remains positive due to ongoing product development and market expansion [2]. - The competition in instant retail and food delivery is intensifying, with Alibaba announcing a significant investment, indicating a potential increase in advertising budgets in Q3 [2]. - High-demand consumer sectors such as trendy toys, music, and concerts continue to be recommended for investment [2]. Summary by Sections AI Applications - AI applications in China are seeing commercial success in areas like companionship, beauty, education, and advertising. Notable examples include Kuaishou's AI tool achieving an ARR of over $100 million within ten months of launch [2]. - The report emphasizes the potential of AI in enhancing productivity and monetization for creative tools and advertising [2]. Gaming Sector - The gaming industry is expected to maintain growth despite a short-term correction, with major companies like Giant Network and Huatuo showing strong fundamentals and product pipelines [2]. - New game launches and expansions are anticipated to drive revenue growth for various companies in the sector [2]. Instant Retail and Food Delivery - The report notes an increase in competition among major players like Meituan and JD, with Alibaba's investment signaling a push for market share in instant retail and food delivery [2]. - The upcoming peak season for local lifestyle products is expected to drive promotional activities and advertising spending [2]. Consumer Trends - The report highlights ongoing consumer interest in trendy products, music, and entertainment, recommending companies like Pop Mart and NetEase Cloud Music for investment [2].

Group 1 - The company expects a net profit attributable to shareholders for the first half of 2025 to be between -10 million and -5 million yuan, indicating a loss compared to the same period last year [1][2] - The estimated net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is projected to be between -23.15 million and -18.15 million yuan [2] - The preliminary financial data is subject to final confirmation in the official 2025 semi-annual report [1][2] Group 2 - The previous year's profit total was 19.93 million yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 0.01 yuan per share [2] - The main reasons for the expected loss include an investment loss of approximately -13.52 million yuan and a decline in consolidated operating revenue due to subsidiaries exiting or transforming their business [2]

Core Viewpoint - The company expects to report a net loss attributable to shareholders of between -10 million to -5 million yuan for the first half of 2025, indicating a shift from profit to loss year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - The anticipated net profit attributable to shareholders, excluding non-recurring gains and losses, is projected to be between -23.15 million to -18.15 million yuan for the same period [1] - The decline in performance is primarily attributed to an investment loss of approximately -13.52 million yuan from the joint venture, People's Zhongke (Shandong) Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd., along with a decrease in company revenue compared to the previous year [1]

Core Viewpoint - The entry of Jay Chou into Douyin (TikTok) has led to a significant increase in his follower count and a surge in related stocks, indicating the strong market impact of celebrity IPs in the digital economy [2][3][5]. Group 1: Douyin Account and Follower Growth - Jay Chou officially joined Douyin on July 9, 2023, under the name "周同学" (Zhou Tongxue), and quickly gained over 265,000 followers within 15 minutes [2][3]. - By July 9 at 1:39 PM, his follower count exceeded 2.65 million, showcasing his strong appeal on social media platforms [3]. Group 2: Stock Market Reaction - Following the announcement of Jay Chou's Douyin account, several "Jay Chou concept stocks" experienced significant price increases, with Hong Kong-listed Giant Legend rising over 100% at one point and closing up over 70% [5][6]. - In the A-share market, stocks like Zhihong Home and Fengshang Culture also saw substantial gains, with Zhihong Home hitting the daily limit and Fengshang Culture rising over 9% [9]. Group 3: Collaborations and Business Models - Giant Legend, controlled by Jay Chou's mother, operates on a business model that combines "Jay Chou IP + new retail," and reported a 65% increase in IP business revenue last year due to the popularity of "周游记2" [6]. - Zhihong Home has been collaborating with Jay Chou since January 2019, where he serves as the brand ambassador [10]. - Fengshang Culture has engaged in several projects with Jay Chou in 2024 and will be involved in the planning of his 2025 "Carnival" world tour [11]. Group 4: IP Development and Market Impact - The "周同学" IP is backed by Giant Legend, which focuses on creating and operating unique IPs for various artists to maximize their influence [12]. - Analysts believe that Jay Chou's presence on Douyin will enhance his ability to attract followers, which can lead to increased sales of merchandise and brand collaborations [12]. - The integration of music with short video platforms is expected to drive content creation and consumption, benefiting both the platforms and the artists involved [12].

周期论剑： 中报预判及大宗品下半年的推荐 20250706 摘要 市场预计九十月份将冲击 3,700 点，七八月份成为基金经理和投资者年 内最后一次加仓机会。地缘政治缓和预期收窄，政策预期上调空间受限， 中报季需关注上市公司盈利与增长情况。 中央财经委员会提出反内卷议题，经济政策治理思路转变，财政政策向 民生领域倾斜，改善家庭与企业部门。增收不增利问题亟待解决，低价 无序竞争不利于行业发展，政策调控思路转变。 当前市场偏强震荡，建议高低切换，关注中报业绩确定性的电子、有色、 农林牧渔等板块。下半年仍看好科技成长板块，如互联网传媒、创新药、 军工机器人等。 有色板块中，工信部约束铜和氧化铝产能扩张，反内卷政策落地将有助 于矿端及产业链利润转移，关注江铜、云铜、铜陵及中铝、红桥等公司。 近期市场对中报业绩确定性给予较高溢价，关注黄金、铜、铝及稀土资 源。 OPEC+决定大幅增产，符合预期但超出市场预期，OPEC 的减产故事已 到尾声。美国达尔美法案可能降低油气公司成本，短期内油价可能阶段 性反弹，但远期供应上升和需求下降将导致供应基本面弱化。 Q&A 对于下半年股票市场的整体趋势和指数变化有何预判？ 下半年股票市 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" recommendation for leading internet companies with strong AI capabilities, such as Tencent Holdings, Pop Mart, Kuaishou, NetEase, and Bilibili [1]. Core Insights - The internet industry is experiencing continuous iterations in AI models and applications, leading to a positive outlook for companies with stable performance and strong AI positioning [1]. - The report highlights significant developments in AI applications, including the launch of AI glasses by Xiaomi and increased investment in AIGC micro-short dramas by Kuaishou [5][10]. Industry Overview - The industry consists of 161 listed companies, with a total market capitalization of 1,740.9 billion and a circulating market capitalization of 1,580.9 billion [2]. - The overall market performance from June 23 to June 27 shows the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.92%, the Hang Seng Internet Technology Index by 3.89%, and the Industrial Internet Comprehensive Service Index by 4.73% [11]. Company Announcements - Tencent Holdings repurchased a total of 4,922,000 shares from June 23 to June 27, with a total shareholding ratio of 0.05367% [2]. - Other companies such as Reading Group and Youzan also announced share repurchases during the same period [2]. Market Performance - Notable stock performance includes Dongfang Caifu rising by 11.25%, and Kuaishou increasing by 11.25% during the week [13]. - Tencent Holdings saw a slight increase of 1.48%, while Bilibili-W rose by 6.45% [13][17]. Key Recommendations - The report emphasizes the importance of companies like Tencent Holdings, Kuaishou, and Bilibili due to their strong market positions and growth potential in the AI sector [5][18].