Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report outlines a three-phase fluctuation in the performance of AI Agent stocks in the US market, highlighting a shift from a general upward trend to a differentiated performance based on AI monetization progress [3][9][10] - The report emphasizes that the current pricing logic for AI stocks has shifted from "storytelling" to "real effectiveness," focusing on revenue growth acceleration and profit margin improvement [10] Summary by Sections Phase Analysis - **Phase One (January to Mid-February)**: Companies in the AI application sector exceeded performance expectations, leading to a generally positive market performance [9] - **Phase Two (Mid-February to Early April)**: The market faced negative impacts from tariff expectations and delayed interest rate cuts, resulting in a widespread decline in valuations [9] - **Phase Three (Early April to Present)**: The impact of tariffs diminished, and the acceleration of Annual Recurring Revenue (ARR) for startups became a key differentiator in stock performance [9][10] Company Performance - **Palantir**: Launched the AIP platform in 2023, leading to significant revenue growth, with Q2 2025 total revenue reaching $1.004 billion, a 48% year-on-year increase [71][86] - **Spotify**: Leveraged AI to enhance product offerings, resulting in improved Average Revenue Per Paying User (ARPPU) and profit margins, with multiple price increases planned [87] - **Applovin**: Experienced substantial growth in advertising revenue driven by its Axon AI, maintaining over 60% growth in ad revenue since Q3 2023 [5] - **SAP**: Business AI has become a crucial factor in driving cloud business growth, with Q2 2025 cloud revenue reaching €5.13 billion, a 28% year-on-year increase [5] - **Salesforce**: Despite strong performance in AI-related segments, traditional business growth has slowed, leading to a 30.2% decline in stock price from January to August 2025 [5] Market Trends - The report indicates that AI startups are experiencing a significant acceleration in their monetization processes, with companies like OpenAI and Anthropic rapidly increasing their ARR [59][67] - The overall market sentiment is shifting towards valuing companies based on their ability to convert AI capabilities into tangible revenue and profit improvements [10]

证券研究报告：计算机|点评报告 发布时间：2025-08-12 行业投资评级 强于大市 |维持 行业基本情况 | 收盘点位 | | 4993.28 | | --- | --- | --- | | 52 | 周最高 | 5440.49 | | 52 | 周最低 | 2805.53 | 行业相对指数表现（相对值） 2024-08 2024-10 2025-01 2025-03 2025-05 2025-08 -5% 4% 13% 22% 31% 40% 49% 58% 67% 76% 85% 计算机 沪深300 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:孙业亮 SAC 登记编号:S1340522110002 Email:sunyeliang@cnpsec.com 分析师:常雨婷 SAC 登记编号:S1340523080001 Email:changyuting@cnpsec.com l 海外应用侧业绩超预期，反映出 AI 商业化加速 近期研究报告 《稳定币+数字人民币，共同推进人民 币国际化》 - 2025.06.29 海外进展顺利，关注国内 AI 商业化进程 l GPT-5 发布，有望带动 B 端 age ...

Core Viewpoint - AppLovin reported its Q2 2025 earnings, showing strong net profit growth despite revenue falling slightly short of expectations, leading to a 12% increase in stock price following the announcement [4][5]. Group 1: Q2 2025 Performance - AppLovin achieved revenue of $1.259 billion in Q2 2025, a year-on-year increase of 77%, but 0.94% below Refinitiv consensus estimates [5]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q2 2025 was $1.018 billion, reflecting a 99% year-on-year growth and exceeding consensus estimates by 2.12% [5]. - The net profit reached $820 million, a 164% increase year-on-year, surpassing consensus estimates by 15.75% [5]. Group 2: Q3 2025 Guidance - For Q3 2025, AppLovin expects revenue between $1.32 billion and $1.34 billion, with a midpoint of $1.33 billion, which is 0.99% above consensus estimates [6]. - The company anticipates adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 to be between $1.07 billion and $1.09 billion, with a midpoint of $1.08 billion, exceeding consensus estimates by 2.47% [6]. - The projected adjusted EBITDA margin for Q3 2025 is 81%, which is 2.2 percentage points higher than consensus expectations [6]. Group 3: Business Drivers - The revenue growth in Q2 2025 was primarily driven by game advertising, with the MAX market maintaining double-digit growth, significantly outpacing the in-app purchase game market [7]. - AppLovin's penetration rate among game advertisers exceeds 70%, with stable re-investment from top clients, supported by the AXON 2.0 model that accelerates advertising expansion [7]. - However, the growth outlook is challenged by slowing industry advertising budget growth and high penetration rates in the gaming sector, necessitating efficiency improvements and penetration into smaller clients [7]. Group 4: E-commerce Development - AXON, as a self-service core platform, has undergone significant upgrades, including credit card billing and automated workflows, gaining recognition from existing advertisers [8]. - The e-commerce segment is currently in a preparatory phase, with annual revenue around $1 billion and advertiser penetration below 1%, facing short-term challenges [8]. - Long-term plans include launching AXON in major international markets by October 2025 and initiating paid marketing customer acquisition in the first half of 2026, with approximately 600 advertisers already onboard [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the internet media industry, indicating an expected investment return exceeding 15% over the next 6-12 months [4]. Core Insights - AppLovin's revenue and EBITDA continue to show high growth, with Q2 2025 revenue reaching $1.259 billion, a 77% year-over-year increase, although slightly below consensus expectations by 0.94%. Adjusted EBITDA was $1.018 billion, up 99% year-over-year, exceeding expectations by 2.12%. Net profit was $820 million, a 164% increase, surpassing expectations by 15.75% [1]. - For Q3 2025, AppLovin projects revenue between $1.32 billion and $1.34 billion, with a midpoint of $1.33 billion, which is 0.99% above consensus expectations. Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be between $1.07 billion and $1.09 billion, with a midpoint of $1.08 billion, exceeding expectations by 2.47% [1]. - The growth in revenue for Q2 2025 was primarily driven by game advertising, with the MAX market maintaining double-digit growth, significantly outpacing the in-app purchase game market. The platform has over 70% penetration among game advertisers, with stable re-investment from top clients [2]. - AXON, as a self-service core platform, has undergone significant upgrades and is expected to drive long-term growth in e-commerce, despite short-term pressures. Current annualized revenue from e-commerce is approximately $1 billion, with advertiser penetration below 1% [2]. - The report suggests that AppLovin's strong fundamentals in game advertising and high re-investment rates provide a solid foundation for growth, with a clear timeline for the rollout of AXON in international markets by October 2025 and a global launch in the first half of 2026 [3].

Core Insights - Unity Software Inc. launched Unity Vector, an AI-powered advertising platform, in early 2025, enhancing its digital platform capabilities [1] - The launch resulted in a 15-20% increase in app installations and in-app purchase value, indicating strong initial performance [2] - Unity Software anticipates long-term revenue growth and improved margins from Vector, despite short-term instability during the phased rollout [3] Digital Platform Expansion - Unity Vector, along with other digital tools like Unity Ad Network and Unity Mediation, is expected to improve revenue visibility and profitability [2] - The company is investing in Vector to ensure efficiency and real-time processes, which are crucial for its long-term success [3] Growth Solutions Segment - The Grow Solution segment is projected to benefit from Vector's capabilities, with expectations of mid-single-digit sequential revenue growth in Q3 2025 [4] Competitive Landscape - Unity Software faces competition from major players like Microsoft and AppLovin in the advertising and gaming sectors [5][7] - Microsoft offers development toolkits and has a strong presence in the gaming ecosystem, while AppLovin competes directly in mobile advertising [6][7] Stock Performance and Valuation - Unity Software's stock has increased by 50% year-to-date, outperforming industry benchmarks [8][9] - The stock is trading at a forward 12-month price-to-sales ratio of 7.04, indicating a premium valuation compared to industry peers [10] Earnings Estimates - EPS estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been revised to a loss of 80 cents and 65 cents, respectively, but still reflect year-over-year growth of 52.4% and 18.1% [11]

Core Insights - AppLovin Corporation (APP) maintains a premium valuation at 34X forward earnings, significantly higher than the industry average of 22.5X, driven by the performance of its AXON platform [2][10] - The AXON platform has shown remarkable efficiency and monetization potential, with advertising spend quadrupling since Q2 2023, reaching an estimated $10 billion annual run rate [3][10] - In Q1 2025, APP reported a 40% year-over-year revenue increase, an 83% surge in adjusted EBITDA, and a 144% growth in net income, indicating strong financial performance [4][10] - The company's adjusted EBITDA margin expanded by 1600 basis points year-over-year in Q1 2025, showcasing its ability to maintain healthy operating margins despite market pressures [5][10] - The sustainability of APP's premium valuation relies on continued execution, further scaling of AXON, and maintaining margin strength in a competitive ad tech landscape [6] Industry Context - Trade Desk (TTD) and PubMatic (PUBM) are also notable players in the ad tech sector, each with unique strategies that contribute to their resilience and growth [7][11][12] - TTD focuses on innovation in its UID2 identity framework, positioning itself well amid privacy changes, while PubMatic emphasizes efficiency through direct publisher relationships and its owned tech stack [11][12] - APP's stock performance has outpaced the industry, gaining 7% year-to-date compared to the industry's 4% rally [13]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the continuous layout in the core AI industry direction, highlighting that several US-listed AI application companies have exceeded earnings expectations, validating the ongoing trends in the AI industry [5][12] - The rapid iteration of large models and the accelerated penetration of AI application scenarios are noted, with significant advancements from companies like Google, Alibaba, and Tencent in AI capabilities [6][13] Summary by Sections Weekly Perspective - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.00% and the computer index increased by 1.92% during the week of May 6-9, 2025 [4][11] Company Dynamics - Xinyada announced a plan for shareholders to reduce their stakes through centralized bidding [15] - Shengshi Technology was announced as the first candidate for a major contract related to the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport expansion project, with a bid of 187 million yuan [21] - Zhejiang University Net New announced participation in an investment fund focused on AI and robotics, committing 33% of the fund's target size [22] Industry News - Apple is collaborating with Anthropic to develop an AI platform for software coding [23][28] - The launch of Hongmeng computers was officially announced, integrating AI capabilities with the operating system [23]