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上汽集团(600104):海外市场品牌力厚积薄发
Investment Rating - The report maintains a rating of "Buy" for SAIC Motor Corporation Limited (600104) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the strengthening brand power of SAIC in overseas markets, particularly in Europe and Southeast Asia, with a focus on the transition to new energy vehicles [6][18] - The company has achieved significant export milestones, being the top Chinese automaker in exports for eight consecutive years, with cumulative sales exceeding 5.5 million vehicles [6][7] - The report emphasizes the importance of the company's three main growth drivers: independent brands, new energy vehicles, and overseas operations, which are expected to facilitate the transition from traditional to new business models [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue projections for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 627.59 billion, 700.95 billion, and 749.58 billion CNY respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of 11.7% for 2025 [5] - The net profit attributable to shareholders is forecasted to be 1.67 billion, 10.49 billion, and 12.00 billion CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, reflecting a significant year-on-year growth of 529.2% in 2025 [5] - Earnings per share are projected to be 0.15, 0.91, and 1.04 CNY for 2024, 2025, and 2026 respectively, with a corresponding price-to-earnings ratio of 19, 17, and 15 [5] Overseas Market Performance - SAIC's monthly sales in overseas markets have fluctuated between 30,000 and 60,000 units, with Europe being the largest market, accounting for over 50% of total overseas sales [6][9] - The company has seen a rise in monthly sales of new energy vehicles in overseas markets, increasing from 8,520 units in January 2023 to a peak of 27,738 units in March 2025, with the proportion of new energy vehicles reaching around 45% [18][6] - In Europe, the MG 4, MG HS, and MG ZS SUV are the main sales models, with MG 4 previously achieving peak sales of 8,791 units in June 2024 [61][62] Market Share and Competitive Landscape - In the UK, SAIC maintains a market share of around 20%, while in Italy, the market share is on an upward trend [35][52] - The report notes that while SAIC's brand presence in Europe has been strong, there has been a gradual decline in market share since 2023 [28] - The competitive landscape includes notable rivals such as BYD and Ford, with the MG ZS SUV being a leading model in the hybrid small SUV segment [61][73]