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毛戈平(01318.HK):从品牌资产价值角度看毛戈平发展空间
Ge Long Hui· 2025-08-15 18:55
Core Viewpoint - The company is a leading high-end beauty group in China, demonstrating strong revenue growth and high profitability, with a projected revenue increase to 3.88 billion yuan by 2024 and a CAGR of 35.0% from 2021 to 2024 [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Founded in 2000 by renowned makeup artist Mao Geping, the company owns two major beauty brands, MGP and Zhi Ai Zhong Sheng, along with a makeup training business [1] - MGP is the only domestic brand among the top fifteen high-end beauty brands in the Chinese market [1] Group 2: Financial Performance - Revenue is expected to reach 3.88 billion yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 35.0% from 2021 to 2024 [1] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase to 880 million yuan by 2024, with a CAGR of 38.6% [1] - The gross margin is forecasted to be 84.4% and the net profit margin is expected to be 22.7% in 2024 [1] Group 3: Brand Analysis - MGP's brand value has long-term growth potential, with increasing brand awareness through its unique Eastern characteristics [2] - The brand has established strong perception quality with significant sales in key products, such as over 400 million yuan in retail sales for the Light Sensation Powder and over 800 million yuan for the Luxury Caviar Mask in 2024 [2] - The brand's loyalty is supported by a comprehensive membership system, with a total of 15.1 million registered members and a repurchase rate of 30.9% by the end of 2024 [2] Group 4: Growth Drivers - The company's growth is driven by product matrix expansion and systematic channel development [3] - The introduction of new product categories, such as perfume, is expected to enhance brand positioning and create new growth points [3] - The company is optimizing its offline stores in high-end shopping areas and enhancing online channel operations to achieve synergistic growth [3] Group 5: Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 5.15 billion, 6.68 billion, and 8.43 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 32.6%, 29.6%, and 26.2% respectively [4] - Net profit forecasts for the same period are 1.19 billion, 1.55 billion, and 1.99 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 34.6%, 30.7%, and 28.2% respectively [4] - The estimated PE ratio for 2026 is 27.5X, indicating a reasonable valuation considering the brand's competitive advantages and growth potential [4]