7 January 2026 | 4:01PM EST Equity Research AMERICAS TECHNOLOGY: SEMICONDUCTORS CES 2026 Takeaways: AI strength continues; incrementally positive analog datapoints We hosted group meetings and/or attended keynotes with Nvidia, AMD, Analog Devices, Micron, Marvell, onsemi, and Skyworks; we also participated in booth tours hosted by Synopsys and TI. Digital, EDA, and Memory takeaways: NVDA, AMD, SNPS, MU, MRVL Nvidia, AMD and Marvell all noted the ongoing strong demand for AI infrastructure, with incremental ...

Both of these exchange-traded funds are beating the market in 2025 thanks to their concentrated portfolios of AI stocks.With 2025 rapidly drawing to a close, this might be a good time for investors to make adjustments to their portfolios in preparation for the new year. The artificial intelligence (AI) industry has been a major source of stock market returns this year, and anyone who hasn't owned a slice of key players like Nvidia and Palantir Technologies probably underperformed the benchmark S&P 500.But t ...

Core Insights - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) is positioning itself as a significant competitor to Nvidia in the data center chip market, particularly in AI development GPUs [1][2] - AMD's latest MI350 series GPUs, based on the CDNA 4 architecture, are gaining traction among major tech companies due to their performance and cost advantages [2][3] - AMD's data center business generated $4.3 billion in revenue in Q3 2025, marking a 36% increase year-over-year, with AI GPU sales being the primary driver [7] Product Developments - AMD is set to launch its most powerful GPUs, the MI400 series, in 2026, which are expected to be ten times more powerful than the MI350 series [4] - The MI350 series GPUs are designed to offer total cost of ownership advantages for real-time AI inference workloads [2] Market Opportunities - AMD's AI data center opportunity could exceed $100 billion, bolstered by a recent deal with OpenAI for GPU capacity [8] - The client segment, which includes Ryzen AI sales, saw a revenue increase of 46% year-over-year, reaching $2.7 billion in Q3 2025 [9] Financial Performance - AMD reported total revenue of $9.2 billion in Q3 2025, with the data center segment being the largest contributor [7] - AMD's stock currently has a P/E ratio of 54.6, which is higher than Nvidia's P/E of 44.4, indicating a premium valuation [10][12] Competitive Landscape - Nvidia's data center revenue grew by 66% in its most recent quarter, significantly outpacing AMD's 22% growth, highlighting a disparity in market size [11] - Despite the premium valuation, AMD's long-term growth potential may justify its current stock price if revenue projections are met [13][14]

Core Insights - The development of generative AI is significantly driven by advanced chipsets, particularly GPUs, with Nvidia leading the market while AMD and Intel are also making strides in AI infrastructure [1][2] AMD's Data Center Business - AMD's data center segment has gained traction with the launch of its Instinct MI300 accelerators in Q4 2023, generating revenue comparable to Intel's within six months [4][5] - In Q3 2025, AMD's data center revenue reached $4.3 billion, marking a 22% year-over-year increase, while Intel's data center sales were $4.1 billion, reflecting a 1% annual decline [7] Intel's Position and Strategy - Intel's data center business has shown inconsistent performance, and the company is attempting to reinvent itself amidst competition from AMD [6][10] - Intel is diversifying its operations beyond data centers, offering various hardware products and foundry services [8] - A recent $5 billion investment from Nvidia, along with support from the U.S. government and SoftBank, aims to enhance Intel's next-generation CPU architectures, potentially benefiting its data center segment [9] Comparative Analysis - AMD's full-stack approach has led to consistent double-digit growth in its data center segment, contrasting with Intel's inconsistent growth trajectory [10]

Core Insights - AMD experienced significant revenue growth in Q3, driven by strong performance in its client and gaming segments, despite a recent decline in stock price [1][6] Revenue Performance - Client and gaming segment revenue surged 73% year over year to $4 billion, with desktop CPU sales reaching an all-time high and gaming revenue increasing 181% to $1.3 billion [2] - Data center segment revenue grew 22% year over year, fueled by demand for EPYC CPUs and M350 series GPUs, with record CPU sales to cloud providers [3] - Overall revenue increased by 36% to $9.25 billion, surpassing analyst expectations of $8.74 billion [6] Profitability Metrics - Gross margin improved to 52%, up 200 basis points from the previous year, while adjusted gross margin remained flat at 54% [6] - Adjusted earnings per share rose by 30% to $1.20, exceeding the consensus estimate of $1.16 [6] - Record free cash flow of $1.5 billion was generated in the quarter [6] Future Outlook - AMD projects Q4 revenue growth of 25% to approximately $9.6 billion [7] - The company is optimistic about its upcoming MI400 series GPUs and Helios rack-scale solution, with a significant partnership with OpenAI expected to drive future growth [4] Market Positioning - AMD is well-positioned as the market shifts towards inference, where its competitive edge against Nvidia's software advantage is expected to improve [9] - The acquisition of ZT Systems allows AMD to offer full-rack solutions, enhancing its competitive capabilities [9] Valuation Insights - AMD's stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 39 based on 2026 estimates, with a PEG ratio of 0.4, indicating potential undervaluation [10] - If AMD capitalizes on its growth opportunities, the stock is anticipated to have solid long-term upside [10]

Summary of Astera Labs (ALAB US) Conference Call Company Overview - **Astera Labs** is a U.S.-listed company specializing in PCIe retimer and switch chips, with a focus on the upcoming custom Scorpio-X switch chip [1] Key Industry Insights - **Growth Drivers**: Astera Labs' growth is driven by two main products: - Custom **NeuronLink** switch chip for AWS's Trainium series, launching in the second half of the year - Custom **UALink** switch chip for AMD's MI400 series, expected in the second half of next year [2] Technical Comparisons - **UALink vs. NVLink**: - UALink uses SerDes with differential signaling, allowing longer-distance data transmission compared to NVLink's single-ended signaling, which saves chip area but limits distance [3][4] - UALink can connect up to 1,024 nodes, while NVLink is limited to 576 nodes [5] - **UALink Protocol Versions**: - UALink has two versions: 128 Gbps and 200 Gbps, with the latter being suitable for GPU-to-GPU connections only [6][9] - UALink 128G supports mixed connections and is compatible with PCIe Gen7, making it suitable for model inferencing [9] - **Broadcom's SUE**: - SUE is a point-to-point protocol that draws from NVLink's logic but has limitations in heterogeneous expansion compared to UALink [10] Product Development - **AMD's Helios AI Rack**: - The upcoming Helios AI rack will adopt the UALink 200G protocol, with Astera Labs developing a switch chip expected to tape out in Q1 2026 [11][31] - **AWS Trainium Series**: - Astera Labs is developing the Scorpio-X switch chip for AWS's Trainium rack, which will be software-programmable and meet high-performance transmission requirements [13] Financial Projections - **Revenue Estimates**: - For every one million Trainium 2.5 chips deployed, Astera Labs could generate a content dollar value of approximately **$1.75 billion** from both large and small switch chips [22] - For Trainium 3 chips, the estimated content dollar value could reach **$3.3 billion** per million chips [26] - Additional revenue of **$150 million** is projected for every million Trainium 4 chips due to collaboration with Alchip [28] - **AMD's MI400 Series**: - Astera Labs' content dollar value for every one million MI400 GPUs used in the Helios rack is estimated at **$576 million** [32] Conclusion - Astera Labs is positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for advanced interconnect solutions in high-performance computing environments, particularly through its partnerships with AWS and AMD, with significant revenue potential from its innovative switch chip technologies [1][2][22][26][32]