Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:ICE) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 05, 2026 08:30 AM ET Company ParticipantsAshish Sabadra - Managing DirectorBen Jackson - PresidentChris Edmonds - President of Fixed Income and Data ServicesCraig Siegenthaler - Managing DirectorDan Fannon - Managing DirectorJeffrey Sprecher - Chair and CEOSimon Clinch - Managing Director and the Head of Financials ResearchSteve Egerton - Head of Investor RelationsWarren Gardiner - CFOConference Call ParticipantsAlex Kramm - Managing Direct ...

Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:ICE) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 05, 2026 08:30 AM ET Company ParticipantsAshish Sabadra - Managing DirectorBen Jackson - PresidentChris Edmonds - President of Fixed Income and Data ServicesCraig Siegenthaler - Managing DirectorDan Fannon - Managing DirectorJeffrey Sprecher - Chair and CEOSimon Clinch - Managing Director and the Head of Financials ResearchSteve Egerton - Head of Investor RelationsWarren Gardiner - CFOConference Call ParticipantsAlex Kramm - Managing Direct ...

Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE:ICE) Q4 2025 Earnings call February 05, 2026 08:30 AM ET Speaker7Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on today's ICE fourth quarter 2025 earnings conference call and webcast. My name is Drew, and I'll be the operator on the call today. After the prepared remarks, we will have a Q&A session. If you would like to ask a question, please press Star followed by 1 on your telephone keypad. And to withdraw your question, it's Star followed by 2. And with that, I'll h ...

Summary of Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) 2025 Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE) - **Revenue**: Approximately $10 billion - **EBITDA**: Approximately $6.5 billion - **Focus Areas**: Day-to-day operations, capital allocation, investment in business growth, and budget process for the upcoming year [2][3][4] Key Points Financial Performance and Strategy - ICE generates a healthy cash flow, allowing for diversified investments across various asset classes globally [4][5] - The company ended Q3 with a gross debt to EBITDA ratio of approximately 2.9 times, within its target range of 2.75-3 [6][7] - Plans to continue stock buybacks while also paying down debt, depending on M&A opportunities [8][9][10] Energy Market Outlook - The energy business has historically seen high single-digit revenue growth, with open interest indicators showing continued strength [14][15] - LNG trade is expected to double over the next couple of decades, indicating strong demand for energy consumption [16] - The Brent index and TTF (Title Transfer Facility) are becoming increasingly important benchmarks for oil and gas trading, with significant growth potential [17][19][20] Competitive Landscape - ICE maintains a strong market share in key contracts, with Brent open interest at mid to high 90% and €STR at over 70% [22][23] - The competitive environment among exchanges remains stable, with ICE continuing to capture market share during high-volume trading days [24] Innovation and Technology - Investment in Polymarket, a prediction market, aims to enhance ICE's market infrastructure and technology capabilities [26][27] - Exploring the use of stablecoins for collateral management to improve efficiency in clearinghouses [30] - Introduction of a new risk model (IRM2) to enhance efficiency across portfolios [31] Mortgage Sector Developments - The mortgage origination process is stabilizing, with expectations for improvement compared to the previous year [37][38] - ICE is on track to achieve $200 million in expense synergies from the Black Knight acquisition by the end of the year, potentially reaching $230 million over five years [40][41] - AI initiatives are being implemented to reduce origination costs and improve customer service efficiency [43][44][45] Strategic Partnerships - The partnership with JPMorgan is progressing well, with interest from other banks in outsourcing mortgage services to ICE [50][51] Future Market Structure - ICE is positioning itself to adapt to changing market structures through investments in innovative technologies like Polymarket [53][54] - The company aims to remain flexible and responsive to market demands as they evolve [54] Additional Insights - The integration of AI in mortgage processes is still in the exploratory phase, focusing on enhancing efficiency while maintaining necessary human oversight [46][47] - The competitive landscape for futures contracts remains challenging, but ICE's strong market share indicates resilience [22][24]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Third quarter adjusted earnings per share were $1.71, up 10% year-over-year, marking the best third quarter in the company's history [5] - Net revenues totaled $2.4 billion, supported by a 5% increase in recurring revenue [5] - Adjusted operating expenses for the third quarter were $981 million, with disciplined cost management contributing to this figure [5][6] - The adjusted tax rate for the third quarter was 21%, benefiting from prior year tax audit settlements [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Exchange segment net revenues reached $1.3 billion, with transaction revenue totaling $876 million [7] - Recurring revenues in the exchange data services and NYSE listings business totaled a record $389 million, up 7% year-over-year [8] - Fixed income and data services segment revenues totaled a record $618 million, with recurring revenues growing by 7% year-over-year [9][10] - Mortgage Technology revenues totaled $528 million, up 4% year-over-year, with transaction revenues increasing by 12% [11][12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Open interest across futures and options surged 16% year-over-year, with energy futures up 14% and interest rate futures climbing 37% [8][19] - Global gas portfolio volumes increased 20% year-to-date, with significant growth across North America, Europe, and Asia [20] - Power markets saw volumes up 21% year-to-date, reinforcing the synergy between gas and power markets [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on AI and automation to enhance operational efficiency and deliver analytical insights through the ICE Aurora platform [15][18] - Strategic investments in data center infrastructure are aimed at supporting increased demand for data and AI integration [10][24] - The company is positioning itself to leverage blockchain technology and improve collateral management through its investment in Polymarket [31][34] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate macroeconomic conditions and maintain growth [40] - The company anticipates continued strength in its mortgage technology segment, despite some near-term challenges [47] - Management highlighted the importance of proprietary data in enhancing competitive advantage in the evolving AI landscape [21][22] Other Important Information - The company returned $674 million to shareholders during the quarter, including approximately $400 million in share repurchases [6] - The company expects fourth quarter adjusted operating expenses to be in the range of $1.005 billion to $1.015 billion [6][7] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of AI in mortgage origination and servicing - Management noted that AI has transformed their platforms from systems of record to systems of intelligence, enhancing operational efficiencies [44][46] Question: Short-term dynamics regarding Flagstar and PennyMac - Management acknowledged a slight revenue decline due to the roll-off of inactive loans and lower minimums from some customers, but highlighted a positive trend in active loans [51][53] Question: Details on Polymarket's data licensing and redistribution - Management discussed the innovative settlement architecture of Polymarket and its potential to enhance ICE's workflow and increase sales revenue [55][60] Question: Clarification on fourth quarter revenue guidance - Management clarified that the guidance referred to recurring revenue being flat, with typical seasonal impacts expected [71][73] Question: Long-term outlook on competition in the mortgage space - Management emphasized their position as an independent technology provider and the importance of maintaining a neutral stance in the competitive landscape [78]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Third quarter adjusted earnings per share were $1.71, up 10% year over year, marking the best third quarter in the company's history [5] - Net revenues totaled $2.4 billion, supported by a 5% increase in recurring revenue [5] - Adjusted operating expenses for the third quarter were $981 million, with disciplined cost management contributing to this figure [5][6] - The adjusted tax rate for the third quarter was 21%, benefiting from prior year tax audit settlements [6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Exchange segment net revenues reached $1.3 billion, with transaction revenue totaling $876 million [7] - Recurring revenues in the Exchange segment totaled a record $389 million, up 7% year over year, driven by a 9% growth in exchange data services [8] - Fixed income and data services segment revenues totaled a record $618 million, with transaction revenues of $123 million [9] - Mortgage Technology revenues totaled $528 million, up 4% year over year, with recurring revenues at $391 million [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Open interest across futures and options surged 16% year over year, with energy futures up 14% and interest rate futures climbing 37% [8] - Global gas portfolio volumes increased 20% year to date, with significant growth across North America, Europe, and Asia [20] - Power markets saw volumes up 21% year to date, reinforcing the synergy between gas and power markets [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on AI to enhance operational efficiency and deliver analytical insights, with the ICE Aurora platform being a key initiative [15][18] - Strategic investments in data center infrastructure are aimed at supporting increased demand for data and AI integration [10][24] - The company is positioning itself to leverage blockchain technology through its investment in Polymarket, aiming to enhance its clearing and trading capabilities [31][34] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate macroeconomic conditions, highlighting strong demand for risk management tools [19][40] - The company anticipates continued growth in recurring revenues and is focused on extending its track record of growth into 2026 [14][40] - Management acknowledged the challenges posed by regulatory environments but remains optimistic about the evolution of markets and technology integration [32][36] Other Important Information - The company returned $674 million to shareholders during the quarter, including approximately $400 million in share repurchases [6] - The company reduced debt outstanding by roughly $175 million, lowering gross leverage to just over 2.9 times EBITDA [6] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of AI in mortgage origination and servicing - Management highlighted that AI has transformed their platforms from systems of record to systems of intelligence, enhancing operational efficiencies and sales [44][46] Question: Short-term dynamics regarding Flagstar and PennyMac - Management noted that while Flagstar's exit will impact revenue, the overall sales performance remains strong, with new client acquisitions expected to offset losses [49][53] Question: Details on Polymarket's data licensing and blockchain technology - Management emphasized the innovative aspects of Polymarket's smart contracts and the potential for increased trading efficiency through 24/7 collateral management [60][62] Question: Clarification on fourth quarter revenue guidance - Management clarified that the guidance referred to recurring revenue levels remaining stable, with typical seasonal impacts expected [71][73] Question: Long-term outlook on competition in the mortgage space - Management expressed confidence in their independent, well-capitalized position, emphasizing the importance of being a neutral technology provider [75][78]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Third quarter adjusted earnings per share were $1.71, up 10% year over year, marking the best third quarter in the company's history [4] - Net revenues totaled $2.4 billion, supported by a 5% increase in recurring revenue [4] - Adjusted operating expenses for the third quarter were $981 million, with disciplined cost management contributing to this figure [4][5] - The adjusted tax rate for the third quarter was 21%, benefiting from prior year tax audit settlements [5] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Exchange segment net revenues reached $1.3 billion, with transaction revenue at $876 million [6] - Recurring revenues in the Exchange segment totaled a record $389 million, up 7% year over year, driven by a 9% growth in exchange data services [8] - Fixed income and data services segment revenues were a record $618 million, with transaction revenues of $123 million [9] - Mortgage Technology revenues totaled $528 million, up 4% year over year, with recurring revenues at $391 million [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Open interest across futures and options surged 16% year over year, with energy futures up 14% and interest rate futures climbing 37% [7][19] - Global gas portfolio volumes increased 20% year to date, with significant growth across North America, Europe, and Asia [20] - Power markets saw volumes up 21% year to date, reinforcing the synergy between gas and power markets [20] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on AI integration to enhance operational efficiency and customer solutions, with the ICE Aurora platform being a key initiative [14][15] - Strategic investments in data center infrastructure are aimed at supporting business growth and meeting increasing customer demand [25] - The company is positioning itself to leverage blockchain technology and improve collateral management through its investment in Polymarket [32][34] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to navigate macroeconomic conditions and maintain growth, citing strong performance in the third quarter [41] - The company anticipates continued growth in recurring revenues and transaction volumes, driven by strategic investments and market demand [20][41] - Management highlighted the importance of maintaining high standards in listings and the impact of regulatory changes on market dynamics [9][34] Other Important Information - The company returned $674 million to shareholders during the quarter, including approximately $400 million in share repurchases [5] - The company expects fourth quarter adjusted operating expenses to be in the range of $1.005 billion to $1.015 billion [5][6] Q&A Session Summary Question: Impact of AI in mortgage origination and servicing - Management discussed the transition of mortgage platforms to systems of intelligence, enhancing operational efficiencies and compliance [45][51] Question: Short-term dynamics regarding Flagstar and PennyMac - Management noted that Flagstar's exit would impact revenues, while PennyMac's contribution would not be felt until 2028 [64][66] Question: Details on Polymarket's data licensing and blockchain technology - Management emphasized the innovative architecture of Polymarket and its potential to enhance ICE's workflows and trading efficiency [70][86]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - First quarter earnings per share reached $1.72, up 16% year over year, with net revenue increasing by 8% to a record $2,500,000,000 [6][8] - Adjusted operating income rose by 11% year over year to a record $1,500,000,000, while adjusted operating expenses totaled $964,000,000, slightly below guidance [7][8] - The company returned $519,000,000 to shareholders, including $241,000,000 in share repurchases, while reducing leverage to under 3.2 times EBITDA [8] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - **Exchange Segment**: First quarter net revenues reached a record $1,400,000,000, up 12% year over year, with transaction revenues increasing by 16% [9][10] - **Fixed Income and Data Services Segment**: Revenues totaled a record $596,000,000, with transaction revenues growing by 16% and recurring revenues increasing by 5% [11][12] - **Mortgage Technology Segment**: First quarter revenues were $510,000,000, with recurring revenues of $397,000,000, driven by servicing business growth [13][14] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total average daily volumes in global futures markets increased by 23% to a record 10,000,000 lots in Q1, with significant growth in energy and interest rate markets [16][17] - Open interest across markets grew by 8% year over year, indicating strong market health and risk management activity [17][36] - In the energy markets, record trading volumes were achieved, with oil revenues growing by 17% year over year [19][36] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on maintaining a balanced mix of transaction and subscription revenues to provide growth while managing risks [34] - ICE aims to leverage its technology and data services to enhance customer experiences and improve operational efficiencies across its platforms [32][34] - The launch of NYSE Texas reflects the company's strategy to stay close to customers and capitalize on regional market opportunities [75][76] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management highlighted the importance of risk management in the current macroeconomic and geopolitical environment, with increasing demand for their services [16][36] - The company remains optimistic about continued growth in energy trading volumes and interest rate markets, driven by ongoing geopolitical dynamics [37][38] - Management expressed confidence in the strength of their business model and the ability to navigate market uncertainties [14][34] Other Important Information - The company expects adjusted operating expenses for Q2 to be in the range of $980,000,000 to $990,000,000, influenced by currency fluctuations and merit increases [8] - The backlog for new IPOs remains strong, with a variety of companies seeking to raise capital when market volatility decreases [10] Q&A Session Summary Question: Investor interest in the ROCCAT purchase of Mr. Cooper - Management views the acquisition as validation of their strategy, emphasizing their independent and neutral position in the mortgage market [44][46] - They noted that Rocket Cooper represents a small percentage of their revenues, and any potential transition away from ICE would take time [48][49] Question: Updated thoughts on M&A and capital deployment - Management is focused on deleveraging and returning capital through share buybacks, while remaining open to M&A opportunities that provide better ROI [52][55] Question: Dynamics in energy markets and customer hedging needs - Management indicated that the current environment presents new risks for clients, leading to increased demand for their risk management services [60][62] Question: Fixed income data performance and sales cycles - Management noted that while sales cycles for complex products may be lengthening, individual product sales remain stable [85][86]