研究员：吴晓蓉 期货从业证号：F03108405 投资咨询证号：Z0021537 目录 天然气：极端行情下风险放大 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 基本面分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 核心数据追踪 | 9 | 1 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 本本本本LNG 本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本 本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本 本本本本本本本本本LNG本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本 本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本TTF本JKM本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本本 本本本本本本本本本本本本 ...

Report Title - Natural Gas: LNG Rebounds Sharply, HH Remains Weak [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Viewpoints of the Report - Not clearly stated in the given text Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - Mentions TTF and JKM, but no specific analysis content provided [4] 2. Fundamental Analysis LNG Market Fundamentals - Some data are presented, such as LNG having a certain value (184.1, 170.5, 91.4), and the power consumption being 592.7 TWh, with a -19.5% change compared to some reference period, and the proportion being 51.8% and 64.2%. Also, LNG has a consumption of 4628 GWh/day, a 17.4% change, etc. Forecasts from ECMWF and NOAA show temperature changes of 1 - 2℃, 2 - 4℃ [9] US Market Fundamentals - There are data about production and consumption. For example, on a certain day, the production is 31850, with an increase of 710 and 330 compared to some previous data, a 1% change; the number of rigs is 1132, a 0.3% change compared to the previous data, and a 9.0% change compared to the data from Baker Hughes on a specific day. There are also data on consumption and its changes [11] 3. Core Data Tracking International Natural Gas Prices - Includes TTF - HH spread, and prices of JKM first - line, TFU first - line, HH first - line, as well as HH monthly spreads (HH M1 - M2, HH M1 - M6, HH M1 - M12) and TTF monthly spreads (TTF M1 - M2, TTF M1 - M6, TTF M1 - M12) [15] Forward Curves - HH, JKM, and TTF forward curves are presented [18] China's Natural Gas Supply and Demand - China's natural gas supply and consumption volume data are shown, as well as domestic and imported LNG supply volume data [21] China's Inventory and Price - China's receiving station inventory level (in tons),储气库库存水平 (in %), and LNG ex - factory prices (including national, North China, South China, and East China) are presented [24] Northwest European Coal - Gas Conversion and European Natural Gas Data - Northwest European coal - gas conversion interval, European natural gas inventory, LNG import volume, and the quantity of floating storage tanks over 20 days are shown [27] European Natural Gas Import and Domestic Production - Data on European natural gas imports from different sources (Norway, Russia, North Africa, etc.) and domestic production in different countries (Netherlands, Italy, etc.) are presented [30] US Natural Gas Data - US natural gas inventory, dry gas production, rig numbers, liquefied export project flows, domestic consumption, power generation demand, industrial consumption, and residential and commercial consumption data, as well as the supply - demand balance sheet are provided [33][36][38] Temperature and Wind Forecasts - Temperature and wind forecasts from ECMWF and GFS are presented, including the latest and previous forecasts, as well as 5 - year and 10 - year averages [41][44]

Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - TTF's sharp decline led to a correction in EUA. The EUA futures settlement price was 87.25 euros/ton (-1.20%), and 27,800 lots were traded (1.20). The signal strength was 0 (0 for short position, ±1 for slightly long/short, ±2 for long/short). There were no new positive factors, while negative factors included the restart of the primary (auction) market on January 7, 2026, and the sharp decline of TTF affected by long - position profit - taking and technical adjustment [2] Summary by Directory Market Conditions - **Primary Market**: The auction price was not available, and the bid - to - cover ratio was also not available. The EUA auction volume on January 5, 2026, and January 2, 2026, was 0.00 million tons, and the auction revenue was 0 million euros [2][4] - **Secondary Market**: The EUA futures settlement price was 87.25 euros/ton, down 1.20% from the previous value. The trading volume was 27,800 lots (1.20). The spot settlement price on January 5, 2026, was 85.17 euros/ton, down 1.22% from January 2, 2026. The spot trading volume was 1,106 lots, an increase of 1.77% [2][5] Strategy - The signal strength was 0, indicating a short position. There were no new positive factors, and the negative factors were the restart of the primary (auction) market on January 7, 2026, and the sharp decline of TTF due to long - position profit - taking and technical adjustment [2]

Summary of Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) 2025 Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Intercontinental Exchange (NYSE: ICE) - **Revenue**: Approximately $10 billion - **EBITDA**: Approximately $6.5 billion - **Focus Areas**: Day-to-day operations, capital allocation, investment in business growth, and budget process for the upcoming year [2][3][4] Key Points Financial Performance and Strategy - ICE generates a healthy cash flow, allowing for diversified investments across various asset classes globally [4][5] - The company ended Q3 with a gross debt to EBITDA ratio of approximately 2.9 times, within its target range of 2.75-3 [6][7] - Plans to continue stock buybacks while also paying down debt, depending on M&A opportunities [8][9][10] Energy Market Outlook - The energy business has historically seen high single-digit revenue growth, with open interest indicators showing continued strength [14][15] - LNG trade is expected to double over the next couple of decades, indicating strong demand for energy consumption [16] - The Brent index and TTF (Title Transfer Facility) are becoming increasingly important benchmarks for oil and gas trading, with significant growth potential [17][19][20] Competitive Landscape - ICE maintains a strong market share in key contracts, with Brent open interest at mid to high 90% and €STR at over 70% [22][23] - The competitive environment among exchanges remains stable, with ICE continuing to capture market share during high-volume trading days [24] Innovation and Technology - Investment in Polymarket, a prediction market, aims to enhance ICE's market infrastructure and technology capabilities [26][27] - Exploring the use of stablecoins for collateral management to improve efficiency in clearinghouses [30] - Introduction of a new risk model (IRM2) to enhance efficiency across portfolios [31] Mortgage Sector Developments - The mortgage origination process is stabilizing, with expectations for improvement compared to the previous year [37][38] - ICE is on track to achieve $200 million in expense synergies from the Black Knight acquisition by the end of the year, potentially reaching $230 million over five years [40][41] - AI initiatives are being implemented to reduce origination costs and improve customer service efficiency [43][44][45] Strategic Partnerships - The partnership with JPMorgan is progressing well, with interest from other banks in outsourcing mortgage services to ICE [50][51] Future Market Structure - ICE is positioning itself to adapt to changing market structures through investments in innovative technologies like Polymarket [53][54] - The company aims to remain flexible and responsive to market demands as they evolve [54] Additional Insights - The integration of AI in mortgage processes is still in the exploratory phase, focusing on enhancing efficiency while maintaining necessary human oversight [46][47] - The competitive landscape for futures contracts remains challenging, but ICE's strong market share indicates resilience [22][24]

Report Title - EU Carbon Market Market Briefing (Issue No. 92, 2025) [1] Report Release Date - June 3, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Short-term: Neutral to bullish; Medium-term: Fluctuation range of €67 - 75 [2] Core Viewpoints - EUA is more correlated with TTF as it returns to the energy fundamentals [2] Market Conditions Auction - On June 2, 2025, the EUA auction price was 70.58 euros/ton (0.06%), the auction volume was 324,550 tons, the bid coverage ratio was 1.5, and the auction revenue was 229.07 million euros [2][4] Secondary Market - EUA futures settlement price was 70.91 euros/ton (0.71%), with a trading volume of 26,300 lots (0.66) [2] Strategy - Short-term: Neutral to bullish; Medium-term: Expected to fluctuate within the range of €67 - 75 [2] Core Logic Bullish Factors - Weaker renewable energy generation and rising electricity demand in Western Europe are expected to push up the residual load [2] Bearish Factors - The US announced to raise steel and aluminum tariffs from 25% to 50%, pressuring the European market; The June option expiration date is approaching, with the largest open interest of put options at €65 and call options concentrated at €80 [2] Other Factors - The US draft requires Iran to suspend uranium enrichment activities, and Iran rejected the US proposal on its nuclear program; Russia proposed a short and limited ceasefire and agreed to exchange prisoners with Ukraine [2][3] Data Charts - There are 6 charts showing EUA auction price, bid coverage ratio, futures and spot market information, price and basis, and December contract positions [4][5]