Methanex Corporation 2025 Investor Day Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Methanex Corporation - **Event**: 2025 Investor Day - **Date**: November 13, 2025 - **Location**: Toronto, Canada Key Industry Insights - **Methanol Market Dynamics**: The methanol market is described as "quietly constructive" due to existing supply constraints and no new methanol plants being built, leading to a tighter market in the next three to five years [20][21][22] - **Demand Forecast**: The demand for methanol is projected to be moderated, with significant contributions from China, which has an annualized demand of approximately 60 million tonnes, while total global demand is around 100 million tonnes [28][29][30] - **Supply Constraints**: Current methanol capacity is around 160 million tonnes, but effective capacity is estimated to be closer to 110 million tonnes due to mothballed plants and structural constraints [40][41][42] - **Pricing Outlook**: Short-term pricing will be influenced by the marginal cost of production, with expectations of a gradual rebalancing in the market over the next few years [44][46] Company Strategy and Performance - **Acquisition of OCI**: The acquisition of OCI's methanol business is highlighted as a transformative opportunity, providing access to North American assets with abundant gas supply at a lower cost than brownfield reinvestment [16][17] - **North American Production Capacity**: Methanex has built a significant production capacity of 6.7 million metric tonnes in North America, accounting for 65% of its global capacity and 75% of its earnings [54][78] - **Gas Supply Outlook**: The company is confident in the long-term availability of low-cost gas in North America, supported by a large resource base and ongoing productivity improvements in shale gas production [60][62][64] Financial and Operational Highlights - **Cash Flow Generation**: The focus on free cash flow generation is emphasized, with plans for disciplined capital allocation and deleveraging to strengthen the balance sheet [15][46] - **Global Supply Chain**: Methanex's global supply chain is positioned to enhance its leadership in the industry, with a strong emphasis on integrating newly acquired assets [18][19] Regional Insights - **Chile and Egypt**: Both regions are expected to benefit from upstream activity, with Chile's production increasing significantly due to developments in the Vaca Muerta formation in Argentina [70][72] - **New Zealand and Trinidad**: These regions face challenges due to declining gas supplies and mature basins, but Trinidad has potential for future production increases through cross-border developments with Venezuela [75][77] Conclusion - **Future Outlook**: Methanex is well-positioned for future growth with a strong North American asset base, a constructive methanol market, and ongoing efforts to enhance operational efficiency and cash flow generation [78]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a solid performance in Q3 2025, with expectations to grow EPS by $1 to $2 in 2026, even in a flat demand environment [6][7]. - Working capital has been a source of cash amounting to $250 million this year, with expectations for free cash flow in 2026 to be at least $700-$800 million [35][37]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the engineered materials segment, consolidated volumes were down 8% year-over-year, primarily affecting engineered thermoplastics like POM and nylon, while thermoplastic elastomers showed resilience [17][28]. - Pricing pressures were noted in the acetyl chain, particularly in Europe, while stabilization was observed in China [15][16]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is experiencing a lower demand base compared to historical levels, with no significant accelerated destocking observed across the board, although some pockets exist [31][33]. - The U.S. assets are running at high rates, with the potential for increased utilization if demand improves [85]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on increasing cash flow, improving cost efficiencies, and driving top-line growth, particularly through its EM pipeline [6][7]. - A divestiture target of $1 billion by the end of 2027 has been set, with the recent Micromax transaction contributing significantly towards this goal [51][52]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving EPS growth despite a challenging demand environment, emphasizing the importance of cost actions and pipeline success [6][7]. - The company is actively evaluating its portfolio for potential divestitures, particularly in areas that do not align with its core business strategies [50][51]. Other Important Information - The company announced a closure of the Narco facility, expected to yield $20 million-$30 million in productivity savings by 2027 [40]. - An impairment related to Zytel and nylon was recorded due to a reduction in market cap, not cash flow projections [69][70]. Q&A Session Summary Question: Early look at 2026 earnings control - Management highlighted priorities for 2026, focusing on cash flow, cost improvements, and top-line growth, with an EPS growth expectation of $1 to $2 [6][7]. Question: Operating rates in the acetyl chain - The lowest-cost assets are running at full capacity, while other assets are flexibly operated based on demand [11][12]. Question: Sequential pricing pressure in the acetyl chain - Pricing pressure has been noted in Europe, with stabilization in China and relative stability in the U.S. [15][16]. Question: Volume decline in engineered materials - The decline is mainly in engineered thermoplastics, while thermoplastic elastomers have shown growth [17][28]. Question: Free cash flow expectations for 2026 - Free cash flow is expected to be at least $700-$800 million, with working capital actions contributing to this [35][37]. Question: Divestiture strategy and portfolio actions - The company is committed to divesting non-core assets, with a target of $1 billion by 2027, and is actively pursuing additional divestitures [50][51]. Question: Impact of European acetate tow closure - Management indicated that the closure would not have ripple effects across the acetates network [98].

Financial Performance - Methanex reported a net loss of $7 million for Q3 2025, a significant decline from a net income of $64 million in Q2 2025 [3][12] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q3 2025 was $191 million, slightly up from $183 million in Q2 2025 [3][12] - The average realized price for methanol decreased to $345 per tonne in Q3 2025 from $374 per tonne in Q2 2025 [7][12] Production Highlights - Total methanol production in Q3 2025 was 2,212,000 tonnes, an increase from 1,621,000 tonnes in Q2 2025, driven by new contributions from the Beaumont and Natgasoline plants [7][12] - Beaumont plant produced 239,000 tonnes of methanol and 88,000 tonnes of ammonia in Q3 2025, compared to 11,000 tonnes of methanol in Q2 2025 [17][18] - Natgasoline plant produced 222,000 tonnes of methanol in Q3 2025, up from 10,000 tonnes in Q2 2025 [17][18] Sales and Revenue - Total methanol sales volume for Q3 2025 was 2,476,000 tonnes, compared to 2,133,000 tonnes in Q2 2025 [8][12] - Revenue for Q3 2025 was $927 million, an increase from $797 million in Q2 2025 [8][12] - The company returned $14.3 million to shareholders through dividends in Q3 2025 [7][12] Operational Developments - The company successfully completed the first full quarter of operations at the newly acquired Beaumont and Natgasoline plants, with operations proceeding safely and reliably [4][7] - Chile I operated at full rates throughout the Southern Hemisphere winter for the first time in over ten years, while Chile IV resumed operations after a planned turnaround [7][18] - Methanex ended Q3 2025 with a cash balance of $413 million and repaid $125 million of its Term Loan A [7][12] Future Outlook - Methanex expects production for 2025 to be approximately 8.0 million tonnes, with higher production anticipated in Q4 2025 [23][24] - The company forecasts a meaningful increase in Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2025 compared to Q3 2025, despite a slightly lower average realized price [24]

Public Health & Safety - Methanol poisoning survivor indicates influencer campaign is insufficient [1]

Core Points - Methanex Corporation will host an Investor Day on November 13, 2025, in Toronto at 12:30 PM Eastern Time [1] - The event will feature a business update from Methanex's executive leadership team followed by a live Q&A session [1] - A live webcast of the presentations and Q&A will be available on the company's website and can be replayed after the event [2] Company Information - Methanex is the world's largest supplier of methanol and is based in Vancouver, Canada [3] - The company's shares are traded on the Toronto Stock Exchange under the symbol "MX" and on the Nasdaq under "MEOH" [3] - Additional information about Methanex can be found on their official website [3]

Group 1 - Methanex Corporation (NASDAQ:MEOH) is recognized as one of the top NASDAQ stocks with low P/E ratios [1] - The company established strategic alliances on September 23 to provide methanol bunkering services in South Korea and the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp (ARA) area [1][2] - Methanex collaborated with TankMatch to offer barge-to-ship methanol bunkering services in the ARA region, building on a previous agreement involving OCI Global and UniBarge [2] Group 2 - The collaborations in South Korea and ARA leverage Methanex's existing supply chain and local knowledge from nearby bunkering operators [2] - Methanex ensures that all partners meet its operational and safety requirements, providing safety packages and technical advice for companies using methanol as marine fuel [3] - Methanex operates as a methanol manufacturer with a presence in Asia Pacific, North America, Europe, and South America [3]

Core Insights - Technip Energies has been awarded two engineering services contracts by Repsol for the Ecoplanta project, a pioneering waste-to-methanol facility in El Morell, Spain [1][4] - The facility will be the first in Europe to convert non-recyclable municipal solid waste and biomass into renewable methanol at scale, contributing to CO2 emissions reduction and supporting circular economy goals [2][6] - The project is expected to process up to 400,000 tons of municipal waste annually, producing approximately 240,000 tons of methanol, which can be used for manufacturing circular materials and advanced biofuels [3][5] Company Involvement - Technip Energies will provide engineering and procurement services, overseeing the integration of Enerkem's gasification technology, which transforms non-recyclable waste into renewable fuels [5][7] - The contracts will be recorded in the Q3 2025 backlog within the Technology, Products & Services segment, highlighting the company's commitment to sustainable solutions [7] Financial and Environmental Impact - The project is co-funded by the European Union's Innovation Fund and is projected to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 3.4 million tons of CO2-equivalent over its first decade of operation [6] - Technip Energies generated revenues of €6.9 billion in 2024, indicating a strong financial position to support innovative projects like Ecoplanta [9]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the renewable energy sector in China, particularly the implications of new climate targets set for 2035 by the Chinese government [2][7]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **New Climate Targets**: China aims to cut greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 7% to 10% from peak levels and increase the non-fossil fuel mix in energy consumption to over 30% by 2035, with a specific target of 25% for 2030 [2][7]. 2. **Renewable Capacity Expansion**: The goal is to expand wind and solar capacity to 3600 GW by 2035, a significant increase from 1700 GW in August 2025. However, the implied annual installation rate of approximately 180 GW from 2025 to 2035 is seen as underwhelming compared to the over 230 GW per year achieved from 2021 to 2025 [2][3]. 3. **Support for Non-Electrification Uses**: The National Energy Administration emphasizes the use of renewable energy (RE) for producing green hydrogen, methanol, and ammonia, which could drive additional demand for RE and aid in decarbonizing hard-to-abate sectors like cement and shipping [3][7]. 4. **Challenges and Solutions**: Near-term challenges such as weak power demand and grid curtailments are expected to be resolved as energy storage and grid capacity improve [3]. Investment Recommendations 1. **Top Picks in the Supply Chain**: - **GCL Technology Holdings (3800 HK)**: Target price of HKD 1.80, with a potential upside of 40.6% due to expected recovery in polysilicon and solar glass prices [4][11]. - **Xinyi Solar (968 HK)**: Target price of HKD 4.40, with a potential upside of 28.7%, benefiting from solar glass demand [4][20]. - **Longyuan Power (916 HK/001289 CH)**: Target prices of HKD 8.80 and RMB 21.60 for H and A shares respectively, with potential upsides of 13.7% and 28.2% [4][27]. Financial Highlights - **GCL Technology Holdings**: - Revenue expected to grow from CNY 15,098 million in 2024 to CNY 30,526 million by 2027 [12]. - Net profit projected to turn positive by 2026, reaching CNY 1,133 million [12]. - **Xinyi Solar**: - Revenue forecasted to increase from CNY 21,921 million in 2024 to CNY 28,103 million by 2027 [20]. - Net profit expected to rise to CNY 3,694 million by 2027 [20]. - **Longyuan Power**: - Revenue anticipated to grow from CNY 31,370 million in 2024 to CNY 37,362 million by 2027 [27]. - Net profit projected to reach CNY 8,646 million by 2027 [27]. Risks and Considerations - **GCL Technology Holdings**: Risks include significant drops in polysilicon prices and potential demand issues from international markets due to trade disputes [11]. - **Xinyi Solar**: Risks involve lower-than-expected average selling prices (ASPs) for solar glass and increased competition in the market [11]. - **Longyuan Power**: Risks include lower-than-expected tariffs affecting revenue and potential impairments related to renewable energy subsidies [11]. Additional Insights - The setting of official climate targets for 2035 is seen as a positive development, providing a clearer direction for the renewable energy sector [2][3]. - The focus on renewable energy applications beyond electrification is expected to create new growth opportunities in the sector [3][7]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the strategic direction of the renewable energy industry in China and the investment opportunities within it.

Group 1: Coal Gasification Initiative - India plans to auction coal blocks suitable for coal gasification to gasify 100 million tonnes of coal over the next five years [1] - Coal gasification transforms coal into synthetic gas (syngas), primarily composed of carbon monoxide and hydrogen, providing a cleaner application compared to conventional combustion [2] - The auction will be part of the commercial coal mining auction, with a request for proposal to allocate the remaining Rs25 billion under the financial incentive scheme for coal gasification [3] Group 2: Financial Incentive Scheme - The government approved an Rs85 billion financial incentive scheme to promote coal and lignite gasification projects, aiming to convert coal into valuable products and reduce reliance on imports [4] - Approximately Rs60 billion has already been allocated under this scheme, indicating significant government support for the initiative [3][4] Group 3: NTPC's Uranium Acquisition Plans - National Thermal Power Corporation (NTPC) plans to appoint a consultant to identify overseas uranium mines, following an agreement with Uranium Corporation of India (UCIL) [5] - NTPC is in the process of signing a joint venture agreement with UCIL for joint techno-commercial due diligence of overseas uranium assets [6] - NTPC, as the largest power generator in India, has an installed capacity of 83,863 MW, utilizing various fuel sources including coal, gas, hydro, and solar [7]

Core Insights - Methanex Corporation has announced new strategic partnerships in the ARA region and South Korea to enhance its role in the marine energy transition [1][2] - The partnerships aim to provide safe and reliable methanol bunkering services in key global trade corridors, supporting maritime decarbonization efforts [2][3] Group 1: Partnerships and Collaborations - In the ARA region, Methanex is collaborating with TankMatch to offer barge-to-ship methanol bunkering, building on a previous arrangement acquired through OCI [1][2] - In South Korea, Methanex is partnering with Alpha Maritime and Hyodong Shipping to facilitate last-mile bunkering operations [1][5] - All partners are vetted to meet Methanex's operational and safety standards, ensuring a reliable service [2] Group 2: Industry Context and Demand - The demand for low-carbon methanol is expected to increase significantly in the coming years, prompting Methanex to expand its supply capabilities [3] - The partnerships are positioned to help the maritime industry comply with tightening regulatory requirements regarding fuel emissions [3] Group 3: Expertise and Safety Measures - Methanex leverages over a decade of experience with its subsidiary, Waterfront Shipping, to ensure a safe bunkering experience [2] - The company has developed a comprehensive methanol bunkering safety package and technical guidance based on international protocols [2]