With the stock down 30%, this 12-year tenured director just bought $2 million worth of shares on the open market.It's been a tough year for software stocks and hyperscalers. Software investors now fear potential disruption from artificial intelligence model companies, while hyperscalers have sold off after forecasting massive spending plans to build out AI infrastructure.Count Microsoft (MSFT +2.98%) as both. While some other prominent software stocks and hyperscalers have sold off by more, Microsoft's stoc ...

Tesla's fourth quarter real, they're just crossing the wire. Let's get those numbers. Tesla Q4 just EPS50s.It looks like consensus was closer to 45 cents. So, we got a beat there. Uh Q4 revenue clocking in at 24.90% billion.Estimate was 25.11% billion. Uh Q4 gross margins, there it is, 20.1%, the estimate was 17.1%. Q4 free cash flow 1.42% 42 billion was closer to 1.59% billion.Let's get your take on this, Adam, because this is another one you own and the stock's popping about 4%. >> Love it. As it should.U ...

Market Overview - Stocks closed flat after the Fed's decision, with the Dow up 12 points or 0.03% [1] - The NASDAQ closed up 17 basis points, while the S&P 500 slid into the red, avoiding a record closing high [2] - The Russell 2000 closed down about 0.5% after an initial green start [2] Sector Performance - Technology and energy sectors outperformed, both up approximately 0.7% [3] - Consumer staples and real estate sectors led the decline, each down about 1% [3] - Healthcare sector also saw a decline of about 0.75% [4] Company Earnings Meta - Meta reported Q4 EPS of $8.88, with topline revenue of $59.89 billion, exceeding consensus of $58.42 billion [9] - Q4 ad revenue was $58.14 billion, surpassing the expected $56.79 billion [9] - For Q1, Meta forecasts revenue between $53.5 billion to $56.5 billion, above the street estimate of $51.27 billion [9] - Meta's capex for 2026 is projected between $115 billion to $135 billion, higher than the street's estimate of $110.6 billion [10] - Initial market reaction saw Meta's stock down nearly 3% despite strong revenue growth [10] - Analysts remain bullish, with over 90% rating it a buy, citing industry-leading revenue growth and scale advantages [11] Microsoft - Microsoft reported Q2 earnings that beat expectations, but shares fell 6% due to unclear reasons [20] - The company met expectations for its commercial cloud business, but personal computing revenues were in line, leading to a pullback [20] - Microsoft has remaining performance obligations above $600 billion, indicating future revenue [22] - Concerns exist regarding Microsoft's role in AI and its impact on the software business [28][30] Tesla - Tesla's Q4 EPS was $0.50, beating the consensus of $0.45 [22] - Q4 revenue was $24.90 billion, slightly below the estimate of $25.11 billion [22] - Gross margins were reported at 20.1%, exceeding the expected 17.1% [23] - Tesla's free cash flow was $1.42 billion, below the street's estimate of $1.59 billion [23] - The company is focusing on humanoid robots, projecting significant profit potential in the future [24][25] Investment Insights - Meta's long-term growth strategy is supported by its significant investments in AI and infrastructure, with a focus on revenue growth over short-term earnings [42] - Analysts suggest that Meta's current valuation at 18 times forward earnings is attractive given its growth prospects [42] - Microsoft faces challenges in maintaining its software business amidst rising AI competition, but its core products remain essential for data storage and access [30] - Tesla's future profitability is expected to be driven more by its robotics division than its electric vehicle sales, indicating a shift in its business model [25]

Core Insights - Quantum computing is expected to significantly transform the technological landscape in the coming years, presenting substantial investment opportunities [2] Company Summaries Alphabet - Alphabet, the parent company of Google, has been advancing quantum computing through Google Quantum AI since 2012, focusing on superconducting quantum computing [4] - Google Quantum AI has achieved two milestones: quantum supremacy in 2019 and the unveiling of the first logical qubit prototype in 2023 [6] - Current market cap is $3.7 trillion, with a gross margin of 59.18% and a current stock price of $309.80 [5][6] Amazon - Amazon is a major player in quantum computing, offering Amazon Braket, a quantum cloud computing service that aids in developing quantum algorithms and software [8] - The company is developing its own quantum technology, including a new chip called Ocelet, which can reduce quantum error correction costs by up to 90% [11] - Amazon's market cap is $2.4 trillion, with a gross margin of 50.05% and a current stock price of $228.43 [9][10] Microsoft - Microsoft is investing heavily in quantum computing through its Azure cloud platform, which includes a "Quantum Ready" program to help organizations adapt to quantum technologies [12][13] - The company has developed the Majorana 1 chip, utilizing topological superconductors, which is a significant step towards integrating a million qubits on a single chip [15][16] - Microsoft's market cap is $3.6 trillion, with a gross margin of 68.76% and a current stock price of $484.92 [14][15] Common Characteristics - All three companies—Alphabet, Amazon, and Microsoft—are part of the "Magnificent Seven" stocks, operate widely used cloud platforms, and are leaders in artificial intelligence [17] - None of these companies are pure-play quantum computing firms, which mitigates investment risk associated with uncertain quantum technologies [18] - These companies possess the financial flexibility to acquire promising smaller rivals in the quantum computing space [19]

Core Insights - The article draws parallels between the speculative excesses of the 17th-century "projectors" in England and today's AI-driven market euphoria, highlighting the risks associated with blind faith in technological progress and the dominance of passive investing strategies [21] Historical Context - England's late 17th-century economic prosperity was fueled by good harvests, foreign trade, and an influx of skilled immigrants, leading to a boom in joint-stock companies and speculative investments [3][4] - The term "projectors" initially referred to individuals promoting beneficial schemes but became associated with fraudulent activities during economic downturns [4][5] Market Dynamics - The current stock market is experiencing extraordinary gains driven by AI, reminiscent of the late 1990s internet bubble, but with significantly higher levels of global debt, which has increased from $64 trillion in 2000 to $338 trillion today [6] - Global stock market capitalization has grown from a peak of $44 trillion in March 2000 to $132 trillion as of September 2025, indicating a substantial increase in market size [6] Passive Investing Trends - Passive investing has gained dominance, with global ETF net inflows reaching nearly $2 trillion in 2024, while actively managed funds faced record outflows of $450 billion [10] - The rise of passive investment strategies has led to increased stock co-movement and reduced diversification, as these strategies are indifferent to fundamental information [8][11] Valuation Concerns - Current valuations in the stock market, particularly for the S&P 500, are significantly higher than historical averages, raising concerns about sustainability [13] - The article emphasizes that many companies' stock prices may not be justified by their ability to generate sufficient income, suggesting a potential misalignment between market prices and fundamental values [13][19] AI Investment Landscape - The six leading technology companies (NVIDIA, Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta) account for over a third of the S&P 500's market value, raising concerns about market concentration and vulnerability [15] - Despite significant investments in AI, a report from MIT found that 95% of organizations are not seeing returns on their AI investments, highlighting potential limitations in the scalability of AI technologies [17] Future Outlook - The article warns that the current market's optimism may be misplaced, as historical patterns suggest that high valuations may not be sustainable in the long term [20] - Investors are cautioned to focus on fundamental analysis and avoid speculative investments, particularly in the context of rising competition from Chinese firms in the AI sector [16][21]

Core Viewpoint - Figma's stock has seen a significant decline, dropping nearly 24% in the last month and over 55% from its post-IPO peak, raising questions about its attractiveness as a potential investment opportunity [3][4]. Reasons Behind The Stock Decline - Revenue growth is slowing, with Q2 sales increasing by 41% year-over-year to $249.6 million, down from 46% in Q1, and Q3 revenue expected to grow by 33% at the midpoint of guidance, indicating a deceleration in growth [5]. - Figma's decision to make around 25% of employee-held shares available for sale starting September 5 has contributed to the stock decline, creating selling pressure as employees may seek to take profits [6]. Is The Stock Decline An Opportunity To Buy? - Figma's stock is now valued at approximately 25 times estimated 2025 revenue, down from 60 times at its post-IPO peak, making it potentially more attractive compared to competitors like Adobe at 7 times, Microsoft at 12 times, and Snowflake at 17 times revenues [7]. Positive Aspects of Figma - Figma's product is well-regarded, with a 129% Net Dollar Retention rate indicating strong customer loyalty and a Rule of 40 score of 63, reflecting a solid balance between growth and profitability [8]. - The company serves 78% of the Forbes 2000, demonstrating widespread adoption of its software [8]. Competitive Landscape - Competition is intensifying, with Microsoft integrating design tools into Office 365, smaller companies like Canva expanding their offerings, and emerging AI-driven tools potentially disrupting traditional design platforms [9]. - Figma's future success will depend on its ability to expand beyond its core design audience to capture a broader enterprise market, as stagnation in a niche segment could hinder its valuation potential [9].

Core Insights - Figma made a remarkable debut on the public markets, with its stock price rising to $122 from an initial listing price of $33, resulting in a market cap of approximately $60 billion, marking the largest first-day gain for a U.S. IPO valued over $1 billion in nearly 30 years [2] Financial Performance - Figma reported revenue of $228.2 million for the quarter ending March 31, reflecting a 46% year-over-year increase, positioning it for an annual revenue run rate of $913 million [3] - The current market cap translates to a price-to-sales multiple exceeding 60x, significantly higher than mature competitors like Adobe, which stands at about 7.5 times forward sales [3] Competitive Landscape - Figma faces competitive pressure from Microsoft, which is integrating design tools into its Office 365 suite, potentially attracting more enterprise users [4] - Smaller competitors like Canva are expanding their product offerings, and emerging AI-native tools from companies such as OpenAI could disrupt traditional design platforms [4] Market Expansion Potential - Figma's long-term success hinges on its ability to expand its user base beyond designers to include software developers, marketers, and cross-functional teams, necessitating significant product innovation [5] - The broader creative software market is projected to reach $15.4 billion by 2025, while the global software market is expected to exceed $700 billion, with enterprise software comprising a substantial portion [5] Enterprise Customer Dynamics - Figma has over 13 million users, but only about 1,000 large enterprise customers who pay over $100,000 annually, indicating that its enterprise footprint is still developing [6] - Failure to deepen relationships with high-value clients or accelerate enterprise adoption could limit long-term revenue scalability and margin expansion [6] Share Liquidity Considerations - Approximately two-thirds of Figma's shares are held by insiders, subject to a 180-day lock-up agreement, which will expire around January 2026, potentially increasing share supply in the market [7][8] - If many insiders choose to sell their shares post-lock-up, it could exert downward pressure on Figma's stock price [8]

Group 1: Overview of Microsoft and the Magnificent Seven - The "Magnificent Seven" are dominant tech players that have leveraged artificial intelligence (AI) effectively, but their performance has diverged due to tariffs impacting supply chains and product types [1] - Microsoft has emerged as one of the strongest performers within this group, benefiting from diversified revenue streams across various tech businesses [2][11] Group 2: Performance and Growth Drivers - Microsoft's cloud services, particularly Azure, have been a significant driver of its strong performance, with Azure revenue growing 35% year over year in the third fiscal quarter of 2025 [5][12] - Azure serves as the foundation for Microsoft's AI offerings, providing AI models through a partnership with OpenAI and integrating AI tools into applications like Microsoft 365 Copilot [6][7] Group 3: Financial Outlook and Analyst Insights - Microsoft has faced scrutiny over its capital expenditures on AI, but recent earnings indicate that AI-related revenue is increasingly intertwined with non-AI revenue [9] - Evercore analyst Kirk Materne raised Microsoft's price target from $500 to $515, citing the potential for AI revenue to reach upwards of $110 billion by fiscal year 2028, alongside significant growth in cloud adoption [10] Group 4: Resilience and Stability - Microsoft is considered the least impacted by tariffs among the Magnificent Seven, with minimal exposure to retail, advertising spending, and physical supply chains, enhancing its resilience during trade tensions [11] - The company holds the highest possible credit ratings from Moody's and S&P Global, positioning it as a stable investment throughout economic cycles [12]