Flash | 12 Nov 2025 14:57:31 ET │ 11 pages Giant Network (002558.SZ) What's New from Citi 2025 China Conference: More +Ve Tone on Supernatural Action CITI'S TAKE Giant Network attended 2nd day of Citi 2025 China Conference (Nov 12). Key takeaways: 1) stronger tone on Supernatural Action monetization, next CNY promotion as potential catalyst, unique product design and overseas expansion plan; 2) update on game pipeline; 3) shareholder return strategy. With sequential grossing improvement in Oct driven by rec ...

Summary of Giant Network Group (002558 CH) Equity Research Report Company Overview - **Company**: Giant Network Group - **Ticker**: 002558 CH - **Sector**: Software - **Market Cap**: CNY 70,289 million (USD 9,871 million) as of 03 Nov 2025 Key Financial Highlights - **3Q Revenue**: Increased 116% year-on-year to CNY 1,706 million - **3Q Net Profit**: Grew 81% year-on-year to CNY 640 million, below estimates by approximately 17% due to overestimated revenue bookings - **Contract Liabilities**: Increased 50% quarter-on-quarter in 3Q, indicating future revenue recognition from previous billings [2][20][24] Core Insights - **Supernatural Action Squad**: - Achieved solid daily active users (DAU) and billings post-summer holidays, ranking 8th among iOS top-grossing games as of 31 October [2][3] - Expected to drive long-term growth with significant commercialisation potential, including promotions during holiday seasons [3][12][33] - Future overseas launch in 2026 anticipated to contribute incremental revenue [3] - **Earnings Estimates**: - Revenue estimates for 2025-2027 raised by 8.3%, 18.3%, and 36.4% respectively, reflecting strong DAU performance [4][24] - Net profit estimates for the same period increased by 2.1%, 19.5%, and 25.8% respectively [27] - **Target Price Adjustment**: - Target price raised to CNY 51.80 from CNY 43.30, implying a potential upside of approximately 43% from current levels [5][32] Growth Opportunities - **User Growth**: The game is still in the early stages of user growth, with significant DAU increases noted during peak seasons [3] - **ARPU Potential**: There is substantial upside for average revenue per user (ARPU) as many paid features are yet to be developed [3] - **Product Pipeline**: Upcoming products like Ming Jiang Sha and Five Thousand Years are in testing phases, with expected launches in late 2025 or early 2026 [3] Financial Ratios and Valuation - **2025-2027 Net Profit CAGR**: Estimated at 41%, above the peer average of 29% [5][32] - **PE Ratio**: Target PE multiple maintained at 25x, above the industry average forward PE of 16x for 2026 [5][32] - **EPS Estimates**: Adjusted EPS for 2026 raised to CNY 2.07 from CNY 1.73 [5][8] Risks and Considerations - **Product Launch Delays**: Potential delays in game launches could lead to earnings volatility [37] - **Gross Billings Uncertainty**: Risks associated with gross billings and lifecycle of game products due to market conditions and competition [37] - **Regulatory Risks**: Stricter regulations could impact game launches and earnings [37] Conclusion - **Investment Recommendation**: Maintain Buy rating with a revised target price of CNY 51.80, supported by strong growth prospects from Supernatural Action Squad and upcoming product launches [5][32][33]

Summary of Giant Network (002558.SZ) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Giant Network - **Ticker**: 002558.SZ - **Industry**: Online Gaming, specifically MMORPG (Massively Multiplayer Online Role-Playing Games) Key Financial Highlights - **3Q25 Performance**: - Revenues increased by **116% year-over-year** to **Rmb1.71 billion** - Profit reached **Rmb640 million** in 3Q25, which would have exceeded market expectations if the same deferred recognition cycle as 2Q25 was applied [1][2][4] - **Future Revenue Estimates**: - FY25-27E revenues revised upwards by **6.3%**, **11.2%**, and **12.0%** to **Rmb5.2 billion**, **Rmb7.6 billion**, and **Rmb8.0 billion** respectively [2][17] - **Earnings Summary**: - 2025E net profit projected at **Rmb2.022 billion**, with significant growth expected in 2026E and 2027E [6][19] Core Product Insights - **Supernatural Action**: - Cumulative grossing reached approximately **Rmb1.5 billion** by 3Q25, with **Rmb500 million** in September alone [4] - Anticipated longer lifecycle and higher lifetime value due to unique female-oriented positioning and high daily engagement [1][4] - Expected to perform well during upcoming promotional periods, particularly during Chinese New Year [4] Management Changes - **CEO Transition**: - Resignation of CEO Mr. Zhang Dong, succeeded by Ms. Liu Wei, focusing on young talent development [5] Valuation and Investment Strategy - **Target Price**: - Increased to **Rmb42**, based on a **22x FY26E EPS** of **Rmb1.89**, reflecting a **10% premium** to A-share gaming peers [3][26] - **Investment Rating**: - Maintained a **Buy** rating, citing strong growth potential from Supernatural Action and future game developments [1][25] Risks and Challenges - **Downside Risks**: - Shorter-than-expected lifecycle for Supernatural Action - Challenges in overseas expansion - Failure to effectively implement AIGC technology to reduce costs and enhance content quality [27] Additional Financial Metrics - **Market Capitalization**: Approximately **Rmb68.664 billion** (US$9.673 billion) [7] - **Expected Total Return**: - Expected share price return of **18.3%** and dividend yield of **1.1%**, leading to a total expected return of **19.5%** [7] Conclusion Giant Network is positioned for significant growth driven by its flagship title, Supernatural Action, and a strategic focus on young talent and new game development. The recent management changes and positive financial revisions support a bullish outlook, although potential risks remain that could impact future performance.