Key Takeaways Ford's Q4 EPS is seen at 17 cents, down 56% year over year, and revenues are projected to fall 8%.F faces e-mobility headwinds after tax credit withdrawal, with EV restructuring charges of $19.5B.Ford's truck, hybrid, and Ford Pro strength lifted Q4 sales by 2.7%, with hybrid volumes up 17.6% y/y.Ford (F) is slated to release fourth-quarter 2025 results tomorrow, after the closing bell. The Zacks Consensus Estimate for the to-be-reported quarter’s EPS and automotive revenues is pegged at 17 ce ...

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Core Insights - Ford is experiencing a strong recovery and is poised for steady growth over the next five years, following a challenging period [1] - The brand remains a powerful asset for Ford, with iconic vehicles like the F-Series and Mustang leading their respective market segments [2] Sales Performance - In 2025, Ford sold 828,842 F-Series trucks, significantly outperforming its closest competitor, Chevrolet Silverado, which sold 587,527 units [3] - The Mustang also saw a sales increase, with 45,333 units sold in 2025, marking a 3% rise from 2024 [3] - Overall, Ford's year-end sales increased by 6%, growing its market share to 13.2%, with fourth-quarter sales up by 2.7% [6] Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Ford's revenues grew by 9% year over year, reaching $50.5 billion [6] - The company's net cash position improved by 14.2% year over year, totaling $26.79 billion [7] - Free cash flow surged by 50.3%, while operating free cash flow increased by 34.5% in the same quarter [7] Competitive Landscape - The discontinuation of the Chevy Camaro has left the Mustang as the only major competitor in the sports car segment, enhancing Ford's market position [4] - Ford's model lineup focuses on SUVs and pickup trucks, with the Mustang being the sole car produced [4] - Ford's strong sales figures set the stage for a favorable earnings report, contrasting with General Motors, which reported a significant operating loss in Q4 2025 [9]

Market Overview - The classic car market has shown strong performance in 2025, with significant activity in live auctions, digital sales, and private transactions, indicating a solid year overall [2][3] - There is optimism that this strength will continue into 2026, with no indicators suggesting a downturn [3] Supercar Segment - The supercar segment has emerged as the biggest story of 2025, with 80% of vehicles purchased by major collectors being supercars, particularly models from the 1990s and later [4][5][6] - New manufacturers and boutique brands are contributing to the growth of this segment, with high-value cars being sold rapidly [7] Generational Trends - The baby boomer generation is simplifying their collections as they age, while younger generations (Gen X, millennials, Gen Z) are beginning to enter the market and show interest in car collecting [10][11][12] - The anticipated wealth transfer of approximately $4 trillion annually is expected to influence the classic car market, as younger generations inherit and decide the fate of these vehicles [13][14] Market Dynamics - Luxury car manufacturers are producing and selling vehicles in greater numbers than in the past, with brands like Ferrari and Lamborghini setting record sales [17][18] - The market is also seeing a rise in interest for trucks, SUVs, and vintage restorations, indicating diverse opportunities for collectors [19][20] Collector Insights - A list of 11 cars has been identified as great value options for collectors, including iconic models like the Porsche Carrera GT and more affordable options like the Mazda Miata [22][23] - The Porsche 911 continues to be a strong investment, with various generations maintaining popularity among collectors [30] Economic Indicators - The strength of the classic car market is linked to consumers feeling positive about their financial situations, which encourages purchases despite uncertainties like tariffs [34][36] - The performance of the stock market is seen as a potential tailwind for the classic car market, as strong stock performance may lead to increased spending on luxury items [37]

Core Viewpoint - Ford's November U.S. vehicle sales decreased by 0.9% year-on-year, primarily due to a significant drop in electric vehicle sales, which fell by 61%, overshadowing a 2.2% increase in internal combustion engine vehicle sales [1][2]. Group 1: Sales Performance - In November, Ford's SUV sales declined by 4.9% to 64,022 units, while truck sales remained flat at 96,696 units [1]. - The F-Series models saw a 9.6% decrease in sales during the month [1]. - The Mustang emerged as a standout model with a 79% increase in sales, reaching 4,207 units [1]. Group 2: Electric Vehicle Market - The significant decline in electric vehicle sales was anticipated due to the expiration of the electric vehicle tax credit [1]. - Ford's October U.S. market sales had previously increased by 1.6% to 175,584 units, driven by demand for pickup trucks, despite a notable drop in electric vehicle sales [2]. - Analysts had predicted a substantial drop in electric vehicle sales towards the end of the year following the cancellation of the $7,500 federal tax credit for electric vehicles [2]. Group 3: Strategic Considerations - Ford is reportedly considering discontinuing the production of its all-electric F-150 Lightning pickup, which was once central to its electric vehicle strategy [2]. - The decision is still under discussion, with executives actively evaluating the situation due to high costs and range anxiety affecting buyer interest [2]. - Ford is looking to shift its electric vehicle development focus towards smaller, more affordable models [2].

Core Insights - Ford Motor Company has launched "American Icon: A Mustang Immersive Experience" in Los Angeles to celebrate the Mustang's 60-year history [1][2] - The exhibit features a sensory journey that highlights the Mustang's cultural impact and history, utilizing visual effects and Hollywood vehicles [2][5] Experience Details - The installation begins in a recreated garage showcasing a video about the Mustang's origins, transitioning to a vintage blue Mustang [5] - Visitors experience a full-scale visual journey, including immersive environments like beaches and assembly lines [5] - A driving simulation featuring a Mustang Dark Horse allows visitors to feel as if they are driving on California highways, with added seats to enhance realism [7][10] Collaborations and Features - Ford partnered with the Peterson Museum to include iconic Mustangs from Hollywood films such as "Gone in 60 Seconds" and "Transformers" [7][10] - The experience concludes with a sensory ride narrated by Marvel star Anthony Mackie, incorporating physical sensations like shaking seats and environmental smells [10][13] Ticketing and Duration - Tickets for the exhibit are priced at $35, and it will run until February 2026 [14]

Core Insights - Ford experienced a modest sales increase of 1.6% year over year in October, with total sales reaching 175,584 units, primarily driven by strong demand for gasoline-powered vehicles [1][11] - However, there is a significant divergence between Ford's traditional business and its electric vehicle (EV) ambitions, as EV sales sharply declined following the expiration of federal tax incentives [2][12] Sales Performance - Year-to-date, Ford's U.S. deliveries have increased by 6.6% to 1.83 million vehicles [1] - In October, Ford's EV sales fell nearly 25% year over year to 4,709 units, with the Mustang Mach-E and F-150 Lightning also experiencing declines [4][11] - The company sold 74,309 EVs year to date, reflecting a modest increase of 0.5% from the previous year [3] Impact of Federal Incentives - The expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit at the end of September led to a significant drop in EV sales, highlighting the dependency on such incentives [3][5] - Leasing accounted for 71% of financed EV purchases in September but dropped to 60% in October, coinciding with a rise in average transaction prices from $60,167 to $65,021 [5] Gasoline Vehicle Sales - While EV sales declined, Ford's gasoline vehicle sales rose, with truck sales increasing by 4.9% in October to 105,771 units [7][11] - Notable gains were seen in models such as the Bronco (up 14.4%), Ranger (up 48%), and gas-powered Mustang (up 43%) [8] Hybrid and Luxury Vehicle Sales - Hybrid sales softened by 4% to 17,498 units in October, but were up nearly 20% year to date [9] - Ford's luxury brand Lincoln faced challenges, with overall sales down 13.4% to 8,100 units, despite a 37.6% increase in Navigator deliveries [9] Future Outlook - Ford's ability to balance its profitable legacy business with its emerging EV segment will be crucial, especially in a challenging environment without federal incentives [12][13] - The company must focus on recalibrating production, managing costs, and reigniting demand to sustain growth in the EV market [13]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a record revenue of $50.5 billion and adjusted EBIT of $2.6 billion, with a year-over-year revenue growth of over 9% [7][18] - Adjusted free cash flow was strong at $4.3 billion for the third quarter, totaling $5.7 billion year to date, with nearly $33 billion in cash and $54 billion in liquidity [19][20] - The adjusted EBIT guidance for 2025 was updated to between $6 billion and $6.5 billion, reflecting a net tariff headwind of $1 billion [24][25] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ford Pro delivered revenue of $17.4 billion and EBIT of $2 billion, with revenue and volume growth of 11% and 9% respectively [20] - Ford Model e experienced revenue and volume growth driven by new product introductions in Europe, but EBIT losses increased due to lower net pricing and higher spending on next-generation vehicles [21] - Ford Blue achieved EBIT of $1.5 billion, with revenue growth exceeding wholesale unit growth, despite higher costs driven by tariffs [22] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The total U.S. market share grew to 12.8%, with significant contributions from key products like F-150, Bronco, Explorer, and Expedition [16] - The industry conditions were strong, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAR) of 17 million and positive pricing trends [15] - The company expects a U.S. industry SAR of about 16.8 million units for 2025 [24] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The Ford Plus plan aims to capitalize on regional market trends, customer fragmentation, and increasing competition, particularly from Chinese OEMs [9] - The company is focusing on hybrids and has a universal EV platform ready for production, with plans to launch next-generation EVs by 2027 [10][19] - Strategic partnerships and innovation are emphasized as essential for achieving cost efficiency and quality improvements [10][11] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the company's ability to recover from the Novelis fire impact and highlighted a proactive approach to securing alternative aluminum sources [6][7] - The management noted that the evolving emissions landscape could eliminate compliance headwinds, allowing for a more optimized mix of ICE, hybrids, and EVs [25][105] - The company anticipates a strong fourth quarter, supported by ample inventory and a disciplined approach to market opportunities [16][19] Other Important Information - The company announced a regular dividend of $0.15 per share, payable on December 1 [19] - The company is committed to maintaining its investment-grade rating and returning capital to shareholders [19] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on Novelis impact recovery - Management confirmed that the Hot Mill at Novelis is expected to be operational by late November, with plans to recover lost production in 2026 [29][30] Question: Warranty cost improvements - Management indicated that warranty costs were down year-over-year, with expectations for further reductions in the coming year [36][40] Question: Industry pricing discipline - Management expressed confidence in maintaining industry pricing discipline due to strong segment drivers and a fresh product lineup [42][44] Question: Emissions rules and profit opportunities - Management discussed the potential multibillion-dollar opportunity from new emissions rules, emphasizing the importance of optimizing vehicle mix [47][50] Question: Tariff impacts and guidance - Management clarified that the recent tariff policy changes would result in a net benefit of $1 billion, impacting the overall guidance positively [60][62] Question: EV losses and future expectations - Management acknowledged the challenges of EV profitability but indicated that they would provide updates after the fourth quarter [96][97] Question: Customer financing strategies - Management highlighted the success of a recent financing program aimed at subprime customers, which did not negatively impact average FICO scores [74][76]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a record revenue of $50.5 billion and adjusted EBIT of $2.6 billion for the quarter, with a year-over-year revenue growth of over 9% [7][19] - Adjusted free cash flow was strong at $4.3 billion for the quarter, totaling $5.7 billion year-to-date, with nearly $33 billion in cash and $54 billion in liquidity [20][19] - The company expects adjusted EBIT guidance for 2025 to be between $6 billion and $6.5 billion, reflecting a $1 billion net headwind from tariffs [25][19] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ford Pro delivered revenue of $17.4 billion and EBIT of $2 billion, with revenue and volume growth of 11% and 9% respectively [21] - Ford Model e experienced revenue and volume growth driven by new product introductions in Europe, but EBIT losses increased due to lower net pricing and higher spending on next-generation vehicles [22] - Ford Blue achieved EBIT of $1.5 billion, with revenue growth exceeding wholesale unit growth, despite higher costs driven by tariffs [23] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The total U.S. market share grew to 12.8%, with significant contributions from key products like F-150, Bronco, Explorer, and Expedition [17] - The company continues to lead the hybrid truck market with about 70% share, and the all-new Expedition gained over three points of segment share [17] - The industry conditions were strong, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAR) of 17 million and positive pricing trends [16] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The Ford+ plan aims to capitalize on regional market trends, fragmented customer needs, and increasing competition, particularly from Chinese OEMs [9] - The company is focusing on hybrids and developing a universal EV platform to meet future market demands, with production of LFP cells expected to start later this year [10] - Strategic partnerships and innovation are emphasized to achieve cost efficiency and quality improvements [10][14] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the underlying business performance, despite challenges from the Novelis fire and tariff impacts [24][25] - The company anticipates a gradual recovery from the Novelis incident, with plans to mitigate production losses in 2026 [30] - Management highlighted the importance of adapting to evolving customer demands and regulatory changes in the EV market [64][104] Other Important Information - The company announced a regular dividend of $0.15 per share, payable on December 1st [20] - The management team emphasized the need for a disciplined approach to inventory management and market opportunities [17] Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on Novelis recovery - Management confirmed that the hot mill at Novelis is expected to be operational by late November, with plans to recover lost production in 2026 [30][31] Question: Impact of chip supply disruptions - Management indicated that they are actively working with U.S. and Chinese administrations to resolve chip supply issues, which are critical for production [33] Question: Warranty cost improvements - Management noted that warranty costs were down year-over-year, with expectations for further reductions in the coming year [40][41] Question: Industry pricing discipline - Management expressed confidence in maintaining pricing discipline due to strong segment drivers and a fresh product lineup [42][44] Question: Emissions compliance opportunities - Management discussed the potential for significant cost savings and optimization of vehicle mix due to changes in emissions regulations [48][104] Question: Guidance comparison - Management clarified that the updated guidance reflects strong performance in the core business, with improvements in material costs and credit performance [53][107]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a record revenue of $50.5 billion and adjusted EBIT of $2.6 billion for the third quarter, with a year-over-year revenue growth of over 9% [8][27]. - Adjusted free cash flow was strong at $4.3 billion for the third quarter, totaling $5.7 billion year-to-date [28]. - The company ended the quarter with nearly $33 billion in cash and $54 billion in liquidity, highlighting a strong balance sheet [28]. Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Ford Pro achieved revenue of $17.4 billion and EBIT of $2 billion, with a robust double-digit margin and a 119% growth in revenue and volume [30]. - Ford Model E experienced revenue and volume growth driven by new product introductions in Europe, but EBIT losses increased due to lower net pricing and increased spending on next-generation vehicles [30]. - Ford Blue achieved EBIT of $1.5 billion, with revenue growth exceeding wholesale unit growth, despite higher costs driven by tariffs [33]. Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The total U.S. market share grew to 12.8%, with significant contributions from key products like F-150, Bronco, Explorer, and Expedition [24]. - The company continues to lead the hybrid truck market with approximately 70% market share [24]. - The industry conditions were strong, with a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 17 million units and positive pricing trends [24]. Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focused on its Ford Plus plan, which aims to capitalize on key market trends, including regional strategies and tailored services for retail and commercial customers [11][12]. - The strategy emphasizes innovation, cost efficiency, and partnerships to close the cost gap and achieve world-class quality [15]. - The company is prioritizing hybrids and developing an affordable EV platform, with production expected to start in 2027 [14][38]. Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the underlying business performance, tracking at the high end of adjusted EBIT guidance for 2025, despite challenges from the Novelis fire and tariffs [35][36]. - The company anticipates a headwind of $1 billion or less from Novelis in 2026 and expects to mitigate at least $1 billion in 2026 related to the Novelis impact [36][37]. - Management highlighted the importance of adapting to evolving customer and market realities for EVs, indicating a proactive approach to scaling fixed costs [32]. Other Important Information - The company announced a regular dividend of 15 cents per share, payable on December 1, reflecting a commitment to returning capital to shareholders [28]. - The company is actively working to improve its warranty costs, with a year-over-year reduction of $450 million in warranty expenses [56]. Q&A Session Summary Question: Clarification on Novelis recovery - Management confirmed that the hot mill at Novelis is expected to be operational by late November, with a quick ramp-up anticipated [43]. Question: Potential disruption from chip supply issues - Management indicated that they are working with U.S. and Chinese administrations to resolve supply issues and are maximizing their purchases of necessary components [46]. Question: Warranty cost improvements - Management noted that warranty costs were down year-over-year, with expectations for continued reductions in total costs [53][56]. Question: Industry pricing discipline - Management expressed confidence in maintaining pricing discipline due to strong segment drivers and a fresh product lineup [61]. Question: Emissions rules and compliance costs - Management discussed the potential multibillion-dollar opportunity from new emissions rules, emphasizing the ability to minimize compliance costs [66][68]. Question: Profit trends in the core business - Management highlighted strong performance in the core business, with material cost improvements and solid pricing and volume contributing to the outlook [72]. Question: Tariff impacts for next year - Management clarified that the tariff impacts for next year are expected to be similar to this year, with a net impact of around $1 billion [78][81].