Summary of TSMC (2330.TW) Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) - **Ticker**: 2330.TW - **Market Cap**: NT$33.7 trillion / $1.1 trillion - **Enterprise Value**: NT$32.0 trillion / $1.0 trillion - **12-Month Price Target**: NT$1,600 (up from NT$1,370) [40][41] Key Industry Insights - **AI Demand**: AI is expected to be a significant growth driver for TSMC, with Nvidia projecting the AI infrastructure market to reach $3-4 trillion by 2030, implying a 42.3% CAGR from $600 billion in 2025 [2][23]. - **Revenue Growth**: TSMC's total revenue is projected to grow at a CAGR of at least 17.2% from 2026 to 2030, even with muted non-AI growth [2][24]. Financial Performance and Forecasts - **Earnings Revisions**: TSMC's earnings forecast for 2025-2027 has been raised by 2-9%, reflecting higher N2 capacity and favorable foreign exchange rates [1][36]. - **Revenue Projections**: - 2025E: NT$3,695.5 billion - 2026E: NT$4,307.5 billion - 2027E: NT$5,187.1 billion [4][16]. - **Gross Margin**: Expected to improve to 58.5% in 2025, 58.2% in 2026, and remain at 58.2% in 2027 [22][36]. Capacity and Demand Insights - **N2 Capacity**: Revised up to 1,230k wafers in 2027, driven by demand from AI and HPC customers [1][20]. - **Capex**: Increased to $44 billion for 2026, reflecting higher N2 capacity [21][36]. Valuation Metrics - **P/E Ratio**: Projected to be 19.6 in 2025, decreasing to 15.3 by 2027 [10]. - **EPS Growth**: Expected to grow from NT$45.25 in 2024 to NT$84.84 in 2027 [4][16]. - **Dividend Yield**: Projected to increase from 1.9% in 2025 to 2.2% in 2027 [4]. Strategic Outlook - **Long-term Growth**: TSMC is positioned to capture long-term structural growth opportunities in sectors such as 5G, AI, HPC, and EV [41]. - **Market Position**: TSMC's technology leadership and execution capabilities are expected to enhance its competitive position against peers [41]. Conclusion - **Investment Recommendation**: The company maintains a Buy rating with a target price of NT$1,600, reflecting a 22.6% upside potential [40][41].

Core Insights - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) is advancing its nanosheet chip technology roadmap with N2, N2P, A16, and A14 to enhance performance and efficiency at advanced nodes [1] N2 Technology - The N2 logic node is TSMC's first generation of nanosheet transistor technology, providing a 10-15% speed improvement at the same power or a 25-30% power reduction at the same speed, along with over 15% chip density gain compared to N3E. Volume production is expected in the second half of 2025, with a ramp profile similar to N3. TSMC anticipates a higher number of new tape-outs for N2, driven by smartphone and HPC applications, compared to both 3-nanometer and 5-nanometer in their first two years [2] N2P and A16 Developments - N2P, an extension of the N2 family, aims to deliver further performance and power benefits, with volume production set for the second half of 2026. A16, also based on nanosheet technology, introduces TSMC's Super Power Rail technology, expected to provide an 8-10% speed improvement at the same power or a 15-20% power improvement at the same speed, plus a 7-10% additional chip density gain. Volume production for A16 is also targeted for the second half of 2026 [3] A14 Technology - TSMC's A14 node will feature a second-generation nanosheet transistor structure, offering a full node stride from N2. It is expected to provide a 10-15% speed improvement at the same power or about 25-30% power improvement at the same speed, along with roughly 20% chip density gain, with volume production scheduled for 2028. A Super Power Rail version of A14 is planned for 2029, extending TSMC's technology leadership into the next decade [4] Manufacturing Capacity - TSMC is constructing fabs in Taiwan and Arizona to support N2 and A16, including facilities in Hsinchu and Kaohsiung Science Parks, and a new Arizona cluster, where approximately 30% of N2-and-beyond capacity will be located upon completion. This positions TSMC to benefit from the next wave of AI and HPC demand [5] Competitive Landscape - Competitors like Intel and GlobalFoundries are striving to catch up with TSMC. Intel is heavily investing in its foundry business, focusing on its 18A process for 1.8nm chips, which promises higher performance and efficiency to compete with TSMC's upcoming N2 chips. GlobalFoundries, while not targeting 2nm chips, is investing in specialized chips for automotive, wireless devices, and IoT, aiming to capture market share in fast-growing segments [6][7] Financial Performance - TSMC's shares have increased approximately 23.4% year-to-date, outperforming the Zacks Computer and Technology sector's growth of 13% [8] - TSMC trades at a forward price-to-earnings ratio of 23.15, which is lower than the sector's average of 28 [11] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for TSMC's earnings in 2025 and 2026 indicates a year-over-year increase of 37.5% and 13.1%, respectively, with upward revisions in estimates over the past 30 days [14]