Key Takeaways Li Auto delivered more vehicles in Q2, but NIO's 25.6% growth outpaced Li's 2.3% gain.Li Auto leads on profitability with a 19.8% vehicle margin versus NIOs 10.2%.NIO shares rose 27% in six months, while Li Auto fell 25%, reflecting diverging sentiment.Two of China’s biggest noted vehicle makers, NIO Inc. (NIO) and Li Auto (LI) , are about to report their second-quarter 2025 results. Li Auto will release its numbers this Thursday, while NIO will follow next Tuesday. Ahead of their results, the ...

Core Viewpoint - NIO Inc. and Lucid Motors are pursuing different strategies in the electric vehicle (EV) market, with NIO targeting the mass market and Lucid focusing on luxury and performance [1][2]. Lucid Motors Overview - Lucid Motors produced 3,863 vehicles and delivered 3,309 in Q2 2025, showing year-over-year improvement but still missing Wall Street estimates [3] - The company has produced 6,075 vehicles in the first half of 2025, which is only a third of its 20,000-unit target for the year, raising concerns about demand [3][4] - Lucid's vehicles are priced above $70,000 for the Air sedan and just under $80,000 for the Gravity SUV, which may limit its market appeal as more affordable EVs enter the market [4] - Recent developments include compatibility with Tesla's Supercharger network, providing access to over 23,500 chargers, and a deal with Uber for 20,000 vehicles equipped with autonomous technology [5] - The Saudi government owns around 60% of Lucid and has committed to purchasing up to 100,000 vehicles over the next decade, but this reliance raises concerns about the company's independence [6] - Lucid ended Q1 2025 with $5.76 billion in liquidity but has a high annual cash burn of nearly $2 billion, leading to potential shareholder dilution [7] NIO Overview - NIO is expanding its ecosystem across the EV spectrum with a multi-brand strategy, including the ONVO brand for the mass market and the Firefly label for premium compact vehicles [8] - NIO sold 72,056 vehicles in Q2 2025, a 25.6% year-over-year increase, driven by ONVO and Firefly, despite a decline in core brand sales [9][11] - The company aims to double its total deliveries from 2024, which were 221,970, indicating a need for accelerated growth [11] - NIO's vehicle margin improved to 10.2% in Q1 2025, up from 9.2% a year earlier, with expectations for new models to deliver margins near or above 20% [12] - NIO's battery swap technology and a network of over 3,400 stations globally provide a competitive edge in the crowded EV market [13] Price Performance & Valuation - Year-to-date, NIO shares have risen 15%, outperforming Lucid's stock performance [16] - NIO trades at a lower forward price-to-sales ratio compared to Lucid, which appears overpriced given its current challenges [17] Earnings Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for Lucid suggests year-over-year growth of 26.4% and 30% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [19] - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for NIO indicates year-over-year growth of 31% and 59% for 2025 and 2026, respectively [20] Conclusion - NIO's broader market reach, improving margins, and multi-brand strategy position it more favorably compared to Lucid, which faces challenges with demand and financial stability [21][22]

Core Viewpoint - NIO Inc. is currently undervalued with a forward price/sales ratio of 0.46X, significantly lower than its five-year average of 1.63X, and faces operational inefficiencies and high leverage that raise concerns about its future prospects [1][5][14]. Financial Performance - NIO's shares have underperformed over the past year, declining by 21.3%, while competitors XPeng and Li Auto have seen gains of 153% and 28.5%, respectively [3]. - The company's long-term debt to capital ratio is 0.76, which is substantially higher than the industry average of 0.28, indicating elevated leverage that limits financial flexibility [9]. Operational Challenges - NIO has expanded its vehicle lineup with the ONVO brand, but sales performance has not met expectations, leading to challenges in managing the product and vehicle margins [7]. - SG&A expenses increased by 46.8% year-over-year, contributing to operational inefficiencies and high operating costs that are expected to continue [8]. Growth Prospects - NIO forecasts Q2 deliveries of 72,000 to 75,000 vehicles, representing a year-over-year growth of 25.5% to 30.7%, supported by an expanding vehicle portfolio and strategic initiatives [11]. - Vehicle margins improved to 10.2% in Q1 2025 from 9.2% in Q1 2024, driven by lower material costs per unit, indicating a positive trend [11]. Product Launches - The launch of the NIO ET9, which surpassed competitors in sales during its initial months, along with new models like ES6 and EC6, is expected to enhance overall vehicle margins [10][12]. - The company aims to achieve breakeven by Q4 2025, which is viewed as a positive indicator for future performance [13][15].

Core Insights - NIO Inc. reported a gross margin of 7.6% in Q1 2025, an increase from 4.9% in the same period last year, driven by higher sales in high-margin segments and improved vehicle margins [1][9] - The company expects vehicle margins to reach approximately 15% in Q2 2025, supported by new models with enhanced profitability [2][9] - NIO anticipates a vehicle gross margin above 20% in Q4 2025, with projected monthly deliveries of around 25,000 units for the new ES8 model [4][9] Financial Performance - NIO's vehicle margin rose to 10.2% in Q1 2025 from 9.2% a year earlier, attributed to lower material costs per unit [1] - Competitor Li Auto reported a gross margin of 20.5% in Q1 2025, while XPeng achieved a gross margin of 15.6%, indicating competitive pressure in the market [5][6] Future Projections - The company expects accelerated growth in Q3 2025 due to robust deliveries and improved supply chain efficiencies [3] - NIO's vehicle gross margin is projected to exceed 20% in Q4 2025, reflecting rising sales and operational efficiencies [4][9] Valuation and Market Position - NIO's shares have underperformed the Zacks Automotive - Foreign industry, declining 19.5% year-to-date compared to the industry's 5.8% decline [7] - The company appears undervalued with a forward sales multiple of 0.44, slightly lower than the industry's 0.46 [11]