Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is facing dual challenges of technological upgrades and supply chain adjustments, with TSMC's CoWoS advanced packaging capacity expansion potentially slowing down. NVIDIA's Blackwell 300 (B300) mass production may reshape the supply chain landscape [1][2]. Group 1: TSMC's CoWoS Capacity Adjustments - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating on TSMC, noting that the slowdown in CoWoS capacity expansion is due to improved yield rates of CoWoS-L technology and mismatches in downstream assembly and packaging capacity [2]. - TSMC's CoWoS capacity is expected to increase from 35-40 thousand pieces per month at the end of 2024 to 70 thousand pieces per month by the end of 2025, down from a previous estimate of 80 thousand pieces per month. By the end of 2026, capacity is projected to reach 110 thousand pieces per month, revised from 120 thousand pieces per month [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Speculations - There are various speculations regarding TSMC's recent downward adjustment of the 2025 CoWoS capacity target, with some attributing it to NVIDIA's AI GPU demand reduction. However, supply chain analysts indicate that TSMC is continuously adjusting its capacity based on client chip shipment expectations and blueprint corrections [4][5]. - Despite the slight downward adjustment for 2025, TSMC's CoWoS capacity is expected to continue growing, with new capacity from the Southern Taiwan Science Park anticipated to come online in 2026, allowing for visibility of orders through 2029 [4][6]. Group 3: NVIDIA's Role and Future Outlook - NVIDIA remains TSMC's largest customer, accounting for over 60% of CoWoS capacity, despite some other clients reducing orders. The AI development is still in its early stages, and NVIDIA's performance continues to exceed market expectations [7][8]. - The upcoming release of the GB200 and the B300 in the second half of the year, along with the anticipated 3nm Rubin platform in 2026, suggests that the operational outlook for TSMC and its supply chain partners remains positive for 2025 and 2026 [7][8].