通过在前端制造领域构建极高的资本与技术门槛，台积电旨在拉大与三星、英特尔等竞争对手的差距， 并利用产能的确定性牢牢锁定英伟达、苹果及大型云服务商等核心客户的长期合作意向。 据了解，台积电董事会周二宣布两项重大决策：其一，批准派发每股新台币6.0元的季度股息;其二，拨 款450亿美元用于晶圆厂建设、产能安装及技术升级，覆盖先进前端制程、特色工艺、成熟节点及先进 封装全技术链。此外，公司同步向亚利桑那州子公司增拨新台币12亿元资金支持。 Liu认为，这一预算结构的转变与台积电2026年激进的资本支出计划高度吻合。根据预测，台积电在 2026年的总资本支出规模预计将攀升至520亿至560亿美元区间，较2025年实现约27%至37%的显著增 长。这种增长跳升在季度层面表现尤为突出，是自2024年上半年CoWoS先进封装扩产浪潮以来，台积 电在资本投入上迎来的又一个高峰。 报告强调，这种"偏向前端"的资源投入，实质上是在为即将到来的2纳米(N2)及A16埃米级制程的大规模 量产提前修路搭桥，确保在技术迭代的关键节点拥有足够的无尘室空间与产能供应。 美国银行分析师Haas Liu在客户报告中写道："就资本拨款而言，我们认 ...

Group 1 - TSMC (2330) is set to expand its investment in the U.S. by acquiring a second piece of land in Arizona, allowing for the construction of four to six additional factories [1] - The expansion of TSMC's wafer fabrication facilities in the U.S. is expected to stimulate a new wave of demand for factory construction, benefiting companies like Hantang (2404), Fanshuan (6196), and Yangki Engineering (6691) [1] - Hantang is deeply involved in the construction of international clients' 2nm new factories and is increasing its investment in advanced CoWoS packaging facilities to enhance its technological advantages and market competitiveness [1] Group 2 - Fanshuan completed its U.S. factory relocation in 2021 to prepare for large client factory orders, becoming an essential part of the supply chain [2] - Fanshuan has benefited from the increase in shipments of advanced packaging equipment from Taiwan, leading to a record high in its order backlog [2]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for TSMC is "Buy" [7] Core Insights - TSMC confirms the strength and sustainability of AI demand, leading to an upward revision of long-term guidance and boosting the AI narrative [3] - Capital expenditures have been raised beyond expectations, with wafer manufacturing remaining a bottleneck, indicating a positive outlook for computing power [3] Financial Summary - Total revenue projections for TSMC are adjusted to NT$ 4,880,557 million for FY2026, NT$ 6,151,836 million for FY2027, and NT$ 7,532,792 million for FY2028, reflecting growth rates of 28%, 26%, and 22% respectively [5] - GAAP net profit is projected to be NT$ 2,362,106 million for FY2026, NT$ 2,976,546 million for FY2027, and NT$ 3,650,595 million for FY2028, with growth rates of 38%, 26%, and 23% respectively [5] - The gross profit margin is expected to increase to 63.5% in FY2026 and 64.0% in FY2028 [5] Earnings Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The earnings forecast for TSMC has been adjusted to NT$ 4,880.6 billion for FY2026, NT$ 6,151.8 billion for FY2027, and NT$ 7,532.8 billion for FY2028, with GAAP net profit projected at NT$ 23,621 million, NT$ 29,765 million, and NT$ 36,506 million respectively [11] - The target price for TSMC's stock is set at $407 for FY2027, based on a PE ratio of 22x [11]

这也意谓台积电顶着追加在美投资的压力，仍以在台拥有生产优势先进行扩充，以满足客户需求、兼具 提升获利优先。 台积电不可能不理会特朗普政府的压力，纽时披露台积电将追加在美投资五座晶圆厂，与特朗普政府极 力提升美国自主芯片不谋而合，对照美国商务部长卢特尼克日前透露台积电会再加码在美投资，显示台 积电扩大在美投资似乎已和特朗普政府达成默契。 消息人士说，台积电为因应扩大海外布局成本上扬，破天荒通知客户从今年起连续四年调涨晶圆代工 价，今年涨势已定，上涨百分之五至廿，涨势会维持到特朗普卸任总统之后，由于后续追加投资和增建 计划是特朗普卸任后的事，以台积电做事稳健的态度，估计未来即使做出承诺，以每座晶圆厂投资额高 达二二○亿美元，五座晶圆厂追加投资金额等于增加至少一千亿美元，台积电仍会视市场及客户需求， 逐步增建新厂。 现阶段台积电三纳米大爆单，因此从最有把握的台湾先行扩充、亚利桑那州厂列为备案，美台两地同步 扩充，等台湾土地、用水用电和人才等愈来愈困难后，美国将会列入未来先进制程扩充之地。此外，台 积电除扩增三纳米产能外，CoWoS先进封装产能也会同步在台湾扩充。 美台对等关税协议即将拍板，纽时披露代价是台积电承诺追 ...

Group 1: TSMC's 2nm Technology - TSMC is set to begin mass production of its 2nm technology in Q4 2025, marking a significant advancement in transistor architecture with the introduction of GAA (Gate-All-Around) transistors, which is the most substantial change since the FinFET technology was introduced in 2011 [1][2] - The 2nm process will enhance wafer production density by 30% to 50%, leading to a prolonged capital expenditure cycle, with SEMI predicting it will reach $156 billion by 2027 [1] - TSMC's N2 technology will provide performance and power efficiency improvements across all process nodes, addressing the growing demand for energy-efficient computing [1][2] Group 2: Performance Metrics - Compared to the 3nm N3E process, TSMC's 2nm technology will increase speed by 10% to 15% at the same power level, while reducing power consumption by 25% to 30% and increasing chip density by over 15% [2] - TSMC plans to launch the N2P process as an extension of the 2nm family, targeting mass production in H2 2026 for applications in smartphones and high-performance computing [2] Group 3: Advanced Packaging Challenges - The real bottleneck in the semiconductor industry is shifting from transistor density to advanced packaging technologies, particularly CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) [3][17] - TSMC's CEO confirmed that supply remains tight and is expected to continue until 2025, with advanced packaging prices increasing by 10-20% annually, while logic wafer prices only rise by 5% [23] Group 4: CoWoS Capacity and Market Dynamics - TSMC is accelerating the expansion of its CoWoS capacity to meet the surging demand for AI chips, with projections for capacity to reach 125K wafers per month by the end of 2026 and further increase to 170K wafers per month by the end of 2027 [24] - NVIDIA is expected to secure over 70% of the CoWoS-L allocation, creating a structural advantage, while other major players like Broadcom and AMD are also vying for the remaining capacity [23][36] Group 5: Future Roadmap and Innovations - TSMC's roadmap includes the introduction of new technologies such as CoPoS (Chip-on-Package-on-Substrate) expected to be implemented post-2027, aimed at improving packaging area utilization and production efficiency [24] - The transition from FinFET to GAA technology signifies a generational shift in semiconductor manufacturing complexity, with a structural demand increase of 30-50% per wafer startup [36]

台积电逐步扩张CoWoS先进封装产能，今年产能上看7～8万片，比去年3万片规模翻倍成长，2026年则 上看11～12万片，但即便如此，由于产能缺口持续扩大，除封测OSAT厂商接获外溢订单外，甚至连英 特尔EMIB封装制程因成本低良率高，也传吸引CSP业者如Google及Meta评估转单中。 市场忧心台积电CoWoS产能扩张不足，订单遭对手瓜分，程正桦16日出席首席国际"2026年全球半导体 暨AI产业投资展望"说明会对此指出，其实台积电已经投资扩张很积极，与其说CoWoS很缺，不如说N3 先进制程产能很缺，由于NVIDIA、AMD、Google明年新芯片都要用到N3，2026年下半可能N3会是最 缺的时候。 程正桦表示，市场已经在讨论台积电是否将上修明年资本支出，其实多数资本支出都是在N3产能扩张 上，预估会从12万片左右提高到15～16万片，N2准备的产能应该会更多，CoWoS产能扩张属于配套布 局。 而台积电CoWoS产能没有扩张太积极的原因，程正桦认为是Blackwell芯片愈来愈大，圆形晶圆切方芯 片会越来越浪费，若未来改以方形载板可以切更多较为经济，为此台积电正在发展CoPoS技术，现在若 买入过多 ...

Core Insights - TSMC's advanced packaging capacity is fully booked, with NVIDIA accounting for over half of the orders, indicating strong demand for semiconductor manufacturing [1] - NVIDIA has reserved 800,000 to 850,000 wafers for 2026, significantly outpacing competitors like Broadcom and AMD [1][3] Group 1: NVIDIA's Capacity Reservation - NVIDIA's large-scale capacity reservation is primarily to meet the growing production demands for the Blackwell Ultra chip and to prepare for the next-generation Rubin architecture [3] - Current orders do not include potential demand from the Chinese market for the H200 AI chip, suggesting that NVIDIA's capacity needs may increase further [3] Group 2: TSMC's Response to Demand - TSMC is actively expanding its advanced packaging facilities, planning to build eight wafer fabs at the AP7 plant and introducing two new packaging factories in Arizona, expected to start mass production in 2028 [3] - Due to limited capacity, TSMC has decided to outsource some processes of its CoWoS advanced packaging to companies like ASE and SPIL in Taiwan [3] Group 3: Industry Alternatives and Technology - The outsourcing decision has prompted some companies to consider alternative solutions, with Intel's EMIB technology gaining attention as a viable option [3] - EMIB offers advantages in area and cost, allowing for highly customized packaging layouts, but for GPU suppliers like NVIDIA and AMD, TSMC's CoWoS remains the preferred solution due to its bandwidth, transmission speed, and low latency requirements [3]

11月营收同比增长24.5% 12月10日，台积电公布2025年11月营收报告。得益于先进制程需求旺盛及产能持续释放，台积电11月营 收继续保持增长，但环比有所下滑。 二级市场上，台积电美股夜盘交易小幅上涨0.51%，今年以来股价累涨超55%。 业界透露，台积电先进封装大爆单，公司努力扩产之际，2026年也将扩大携手协力伙伴，以满足客户需 求。 台积电11月销售额3436.1亿元台币，同比增长24.5％，仍创历年同期新高，但不及上一个月的3674.73 亿，环比下滑6.5%； 1-11月累计销售额3.47万亿元台币，同比增长32.8％，前11月首度突破3.4万元，也是历年最佳。 | 项目 | 2025年 | 2025年 | 月增(波) | 2024年 | 年增(波) | 2025年 | 2024年 | 年增(液) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 11月 | 10月 | 0/0 | 11月 | 1 % | 1至11月 | 1至11月 | % | | 量收 | 343,614 | 367,473 | (6.5) | 276 ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is facing a significant capacity bottleneck in its CoWoS advanced packaging, unable to meet the explosive demand for AI chips from clients like Nvidia and Apple, leading to a strategic shift towards outsourcing overflow orders to partners like ASE and SPIL [1][3]. Group 1: Capacity Challenges - TSMC's CoWoS production lines are fully booked, severely limiting the delivery speed of AI chips [3]. - The company has decided to implement an outsourcing strategy to alleviate the pressure of unfulfilled orders by distributing some of the overflow to capable partners [3]. Group 2: Outsourcing Strategy - The primary partners for outsourcing are ASE and SPIL, which will handle the overflow orders that TSMC cannot process in a timely manner [3]. - ASE and other firms have announced investments of several billion dollars to expand their production capacity to meet this demand [3]. Group 3: Competitive Landscape - TSMC's decision to outsource is also driven by competitive pressures, particularly from Intel, which is actively trying to attract clients like Apple and Qualcomm in the advanced packaging sector [3]. - By expanding available capacity through outsourcing, TSMC aims to prevent clients from turning to competitors due to long wait times, thereby solidifying its dominance in the high-end packaging market [3].

Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is increasingly seeking alternative solutions due to the ongoing tight capacity for advanced packaging at TSMC, with Marvell and MediaTek evaluating the integration of Intel's EMIB technology into their ASIC chip designs [2][4]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - TSMC faces dual challenges: the inability to rapidly expand its advanced packaging capacity in the short term and the demand from U.S. clients for localizing the entire supply chain, which TSMC's U.S. backend capacity is not yet fully equipped to meet [4]. Group 2: Technological Developments - Intel's EMIB technology, which utilizes a 2.5D packaging architecture, is gaining attention for its unique advantages in heterogeneous chip integration [4]. - Recent job postings from leading companies like Apple, Qualcomm, and Broadcom explicitly mention EMIB-related positions, indicating a proactive approach to talent acquisition in the advanced packaging sector [4]. - Intel's newly launched 3.5D packaging technology achieves higher chip interconnect density through more precise silicon vias, further enhancing its competitive edge [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The embedded bridge solution used in EMIB offers advantages in cost control and yield improvement compared to traditional intermediary layer designs, making it a key focus as advanced process evolution slows down [4]. - The shift of multiple companies towards the EMIB solution not only reflects current supply chain adaptation strategies but may also reshape the competitive landscape of the semiconductor packaging industry [4].