Core Viewpoint - TSMC has raised its full-year earnings outlook due to strong demand for AI computing power, leading to a market capitalization exceeding $1 trillion for the first time, making it the first Asian stock to achieve this milestone since PetroChina in 2007 [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - TSMC reported a 61% increase in net profit for Q2, driven by surging AI computing demand [1]. - The company expects a 30% growth in sales by 2025, up from a previous estimate of nearly 20% [1]. - TSMC's stock price has risen nearly 50% since April, reaching historical highs [4]. Group 2: Market Demand and Trends - The demand for AI GPUs and AI ASICs is booming, with TSMC positioned as a key player in the AI chip manufacturing sector [7][8]. - TSMC's management anticipates a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 20% over the next five years, with AI-related revenue expected to grow at a CAGR of around 45% [3][11]. - Major tech companies like Meta are investing heavily in AI infrastructure, indicating sustained demand for AI computing power [9]. Group 3: Competitive Position - TSMC is the largest contract chip manufacturer globally, benefiting from the increasing demand for AI chips from clients like NVIDIA and AMD [8]. - The company has secured nearly all high-end chip packaging orders for 5nm and below processes, indicating a strong competitive edge [9]. - Analysts from major financial institutions have reiterated "buy" ratings for TSMC, with target prices ranging from 1,210 to 1,400 New Taiwan Dollars [11][12][14].

Group 1 - TSMC's 2nm process yield for memory products has surpassed 90%, indicating significant manufacturing efficiency [1] - TSMC is targeting orders from major US tech companies such as Nvidia, Apple, Qualcomm, AMD, and Broadcom, with expectations of reaching full capacity utilization soon [1] - The Arizona facility is currently producing N4 chips, corresponding to 5nm and 4nm technologies, with Nvidia's AI chips undergoing process validation and expected to start production by the end of this year [1] Group 2 - TSMC's 2nm wafer production is projected to reach four times the volume of the previous year's 5nm production, reflecting strong demand [2] - Major clients like Apple, MediaTek, Qualcomm, and AMD are planning to utilize TSMC's 2nm process for their next-generation chips, which is expected to drive revenue growth [2] - Analysts predict TSMC's revenue growth of 26.3% and 14.1% for 2025 and 2026, respectively, with advanced process nodes below 7nm increasing from 68.8% in 2024 to 79.3% in 2026 [2] Group 3 - In advanced packaging, TSMC's CoWoS shipments are expected to increase from 585,000 units in 2026 to 923,000 units, with capacity rising from 660,000 to 1,000,000 units, representing year-on-year growth of 52% and 58% [3] - Despite currency fluctuations affecting profit expectations for 2025-2027, TSMC's revenue is still anticipated to grow by approximately 25% in 2025 [3]

Group 1 - The article reports a workplace accident at TSMC's advanced CoWoS packaging plant in Chiayi, where a worker was killed after being struck by a falling transformer box during installation work [2] - TSMC has two CoWoS packaging plants planned in the Chiayi Science Park, with the first one having started construction in May last year and expected to be completed by the end of next year, aiming for mass production in 2028 and creating 3,000 job opportunities [2] - Following the accident, TSMC has voluntarily halted work at the site and is cooperating with investigations to clarify the cause of the incident [2]

Core Viewpoint - Third Point, led by billionaire Daniel Loeb, reported a decrease in total market value of its U.S. stock holdings to $6.55 billion for Q1 2025, down 12% from the previous quarter's $7.44 billion, indicating a concentrated portfolio with top ten holdings accounting for 49.74% of total market value [2][3]. Summary by Sections Holdings Overview - Third Point's Q1 2025 report shows new purchases of 11 stocks, increased holdings in 9 stocks, while selling out of 9 stocks and reducing holdings in 7 stocks [2][3]. - The firm’s top ten holdings are diversified across sectors including semiconductors, utilities, consumer staples, telecommunications, real estate, and materials [3]. Top Holdings - The largest holding is Pacific Gas and Electric (PCG.US) with 51.1 million shares valued at approximately $878 million, representing 13.40% of the portfolio [4]. - Amazon (AMZN.US) is the second largest holding with 2.35 million shares valued at about $447 million, but saw a significant reduction of 31.88% in shares held [4]. - Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSM.US) ranks third with 1.78 million shares valued at approximately $295 million, showing no change in holdings [4]. Sector Allocation - The portfolio reflects a long-standing preference for utilities, consumer staples, and technology, with a strong emphasis on the semiconductor sector [3][8]. - New positions include Kenvue Inc (KVUE.US), while Brookfield Corporation (BN.US) saw a 15% reduction in holdings [5]. Recent Transactions - The top five new purchases include Kenvue, S&P 500 index put options, Nvidia (NVDA.US), CoStar Group Inc (CSGP.US), and U.S. Steel (X.US) [6]. - The top five sold positions were Danaher (DHR.US), Meta (META.US), Amazon, Ferguson Enterprises Inc (FERG.US), and Tesla (TSLA.US) [7]. AI and Semiconductor Focus - Third Point's new positions in U.S. Steel and Nvidia highlight a continued interest in utilities and semiconductors, particularly in AI-related investments [8]. - TSMC's strong demand for AI chips is expected to persist, with a projected revenue CAGR of about 20% over the next five years, and AI-related revenue anticipated to grow by approximately 45% [8]. Reduction in Holdings - Significant reductions were noted in holdings of Microsoft (MSFT.US) by 47.5% and Vistra Corp (VST.US) by 15%, while both Meta and Tesla were completely sold out [9].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's Q1 revenue increased by 42% year-on-year, reaching approximately NT$285.96 billion, with cumulative revenue for the quarter at NT$839.25 billion (about $25.53 billion), aligning with market expectations despite concerns over potential impacts from new U.S. tariffs [1][2]. Group 1: Revenue Performance - TSMC's Q1 revenue of NT$285.96 billion and cumulative revenue of NT$839.25 billion fell within the company's forecast range of $25 billion to $25.8 billion [1]. - Analysts had initially expected a slight dip in revenue due to the January earthquake, but the actual results exceeded these expectations [1]. Group 2: Market Concerns - Investors are particularly focused on the potential weakening of global chip demand following the implementation of new U.S. tariffs on April 9 [1]. - There is anticipation regarding TSMC's upcoming investor conference on April 17, where the company may revise its annual revenue and capital expenditure targets [1]. Group 3: Competitive Position and Risks - Bloomberg analysts believe TSMC maintains a leading position in advanced process technologies, particularly in 2nm and 3nm nodes, which should mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs [2]. - However, TSMC faces short-term profit risks due to rising operational costs from rapid overseas capacity expansion, particularly in the U.S., and low utilization rates in mature process technologies [2]. Group 4: Customer Impact - TSMC's major customer, NVIDIA, may have 40% to 60% of its U.S. system products eligible for tariff exemptions, potentially reducing the impact of tariffs [3]. - Despite some products being assembled in the U.S., approximately half of NVIDIA's components are still produced in Asia, particularly Taiwan, which may continue to face tariff risks [3].

Core Viewpoint - The semiconductor industry is facing dual challenges of technological upgrades and supply chain adjustments, with TSMC's CoWoS advanced packaging capacity expansion potentially slowing down. NVIDIA's Blackwell 300 (B300) mass production may reshape the supply chain landscape [1][2]. Group 1: TSMC's CoWoS Capacity Adjustments - UBS maintains a "Buy" rating on TSMC, noting that the slowdown in CoWoS capacity expansion is due to improved yield rates of CoWoS-L technology and mismatches in downstream assembly and packaging capacity [2]. - TSMC's CoWoS capacity is expected to increase from 35-40 thousand pieces per month at the end of 2024 to 70 thousand pieces per month by the end of 2025, down from a previous estimate of 80 thousand pieces per month. By the end of 2026, capacity is projected to reach 110 thousand pieces per month, revised from 120 thousand pieces per month [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Speculations - There are various speculations regarding TSMC's recent downward adjustment of the 2025 CoWoS capacity target, with some attributing it to NVIDIA's AI GPU demand reduction. However, supply chain analysts indicate that TSMC is continuously adjusting its capacity based on client chip shipment expectations and blueprint corrections [4][5]. - Despite the slight downward adjustment for 2025, TSMC's CoWoS capacity is expected to continue growing, with new capacity from the Southern Taiwan Science Park anticipated to come online in 2026, allowing for visibility of orders through 2029 [4][6]. Group 3: NVIDIA's Role and Future Outlook - NVIDIA remains TSMC's largest customer, accounting for over 60% of CoWoS capacity, despite some other clients reducing orders. The AI development is still in its early stages, and NVIDIA's performance continues to exceed market expectations [7][8]. - The upcoming release of the GB200 and the B300 in the second half of the year, along with the anticipated 3nm Rubin platform in 2026, suggests that the operational outlook for TSMC and its supply chain partners remains positive for 2025 and 2026 [7][8].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential adjustments in NVIDIA's CoWoS packaging orders with TSMC, highlighting the cautious approach of TSMC regarding capacity expansion and the market's optimistic expectations for NVIDIA's chip production plans [1][2]. Group 1: TSMC's Capacity Expansion - TSMC's CoWoS expansion plan remains unchanged, with a gradual increase to approximately 70,000 wafers per month by December 2025 [1]. - TSMC's 5/4nm process is currently fully loaded, and NVIDIA's chip production volume has increased compared to earlier this year [1]. Group 2: NVIDIA's Production Plans - There are rumors that NVIDIA's CoWoS wafer allocation for 2025 has been revised down from over 400,000 to around 380,000, which may stem from overly optimistic expectations from market participants [2]. - The transition period between NVIDIA's B200 and B300 series products has been significantly accelerated, leading to changes in production plans that may be misinterpreted as order cuts [2]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Expectations - TSMC has been cautious about capacity expansion, and significant order cuts are not expected unless there is a drastic shift in industry trends [2]. - Historical context shows that during peak market sentiment, NVIDIA had requested TSMC to increase CoWoS capacity to 100,000 wafers per month, which was declined by TSMC [2].