2025年底，台积电刚刚完成了2纳米环栅（GAA）晶体管的架构革新——这是自2011年FinFET问世以来晶体管结构最重大的变革。我们对此里 程碑事件进行了广泛报道，实至名归。每片晶圆的生产设备密集度将增加30%至50% ，这将推动一个持续多年的资本支出周期，SEMI预测到 2027年，该周期将达到1560亿美元。 相关报道指出，台积电表示，2 纳米技术已如期于2025 年第四季开始量产。 N2 技术采用第一代纳米片(Nanosheet) 电晶体技术，提供全制程节点的效能及 功耗进步，并发展低阻值重置导线层与超高效能金属层间电容以持续进行2 纳米制程技术效能提升。 台积电指出，N2 技术将成为业界在密度和能源效率上最为先进的半导体技术，N2 技术采用领先的纳米片电晶体结构，将提供全制程节点的效能及功耗的 进步，以满足节能运算日益增加的需求。 N2 及其衍生技术将因我们持续强化的策略，进一步扩大台积电的技术领先优势。 与3 纳米的N3E 制程相比，在相同功耗下台积电2 纳米速度增加10% 至15%；在相同速度下，功耗降低25% 至30%，同时芯片密度增加大于15%。台积电 也将推出N2P 制程技术做为2 纳米家 ...

台积电逐步扩张CoWoS先进封装产能，今年产能上看7～8万片，比去年3万片规模翻倍成长，2026年则 上看11～12万片，但即便如此，由于产能缺口持续扩大，除封测OSAT厂商接获外溢订单外，甚至连英 特尔EMIB封装制程因成本低良率高，也传吸引CSP业者如Google及Meta评估转单中。 市场忧心台积电CoWoS产能扩张不足，订单遭对手瓜分，程正桦16日出席首席国际"2026年全球半导体 暨AI产业投资展望"说明会对此指出，其实台积电已经投资扩张很积极，与其说CoWoS很缺，不如说N3 先进制程产能很缺，由于NVIDIA、AMD、Google明年新芯片都要用到N3，2026年下半可能N3会是最 缺的时候。 程正桦表示，市场已经在讨论台积电是否将上修明年资本支出，其实多数资本支出都是在N3产能扩张 上，预估会从12万片左右提高到15～16万片，N2准备的产能应该会更多，CoWoS产能扩张属于配套布 局。 而台积电CoWoS产能没有扩张太积极的原因，程正桦认为是Blackwell芯片愈来愈大，圆形晶圆切方芯 片会越来越浪费，若未来改以方形载板可以切更多较为经济，为此台积电正在发展CoPoS技术，现在若 买入过多 ...

Core Insights - TSMC's advanced packaging capacity is fully booked, with NVIDIA accounting for over half of the orders, indicating strong demand for semiconductor manufacturing [1] - NVIDIA has reserved 800,000 to 850,000 wafers for 2026, significantly outpacing competitors like Broadcom and AMD [1][3] Group 1: NVIDIA's Capacity Reservation - NVIDIA's large-scale capacity reservation is primarily to meet the growing production demands for the Blackwell Ultra chip and to prepare for the next-generation Rubin architecture [3] - Current orders do not include potential demand from the Chinese market for the H200 AI chip, suggesting that NVIDIA's capacity needs may increase further [3] Group 2: TSMC's Response to Demand - TSMC is actively expanding its advanced packaging facilities, planning to build eight wafer fabs at the AP7 plant and introducing two new packaging factories in Arizona, expected to start mass production in 2028 [3] - Due to limited capacity, TSMC has decided to outsource some processes of its CoWoS advanced packaging to companies like ASE and SPIL in Taiwan [3] Group 3: Industry Alternatives and Technology - The outsourcing decision has prompted some companies to consider alternative solutions, with Intel's EMIB technology gaining attention as a viable option [3] - EMIB offers advantages in area and cost, allowing for highly customized packaging layouts, but for GPU suppliers like NVIDIA and AMD, TSMC's CoWoS remains the preferred solution due to its bandwidth, transmission speed, and low latency requirements [3]

11月营收同比增长24.5% 12月10日，台积电公布2025年11月营收报告。得益于先进制程需求旺盛及产能持续释放，台积电11月营 收继续保持增长，但环比有所下滑。 二级市场上，台积电美股夜盘交易小幅上涨0.51%，今年以来股价累涨超55%。 业界透露，台积电先进封装大爆单，公司努力扩产之际，2026年也将扩大携手协力伙伴，以满足客户需 求。 台积电11月销售额3436.1亿元台币，同比增长24.5％，仍创历年同期新高，但不及上一个月的3674.73 亿，环比下滑6.5%； 1-11月累计销售额3.47万亿元台币，同比增长32.8％，前11月首度突破3.4万元，也是历年最佳。 | 项目 | 2025年 | 2025年 | 月增(波) | 2024年 | 年增(波) | 2025年 | 2024年 | 年增(液) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 11月 | 10月 | 0/0 | 11月 | 1 % | 1至11月 | 1至11月 | % | | 量收 | 343,614 | 367,473 | (6.5) | 276 ...

国芯网[原:中国半导体论坛] 振兴国产半导体产业！ 不拘中国、 放眼世界 ！ 关注 世界半导体论坛 ↓ ↓ ↓ 12月10日消息，据报道，台积电目前面临 CoWoS 先进封装产能严重饱和的困境，已无法单独满足英伟 达、苹果等客户对 AI 芯片的爆发式需求。 为解决这一瓶颈， 台积电决定改变策略，将部分"溢出"订单外包给日月光投控和矽品精密等封测大 厂。 据悉，台积电现有的 CoWoS 生产线已处于"全额预订"状态，产能瓶颈严重制约了 AI 芯片的交付速 度。面对这一严峻挑战，台积电无法再独自消化所有订单，转而决定启动外包策略，将部分订单分流至 具备承接能力的合作伙伴。 台积电此次外包的主要对象锁定日月光投控和矽品精密等公司。这些厂商将负责承接台积电无法及时处 理的"溢出"订单。 这一策略调整背后还隐藏着深层的竞争考量：英特尔近期在先进封装领域动作频频，试图吸引苹果和高 通等客户。台积电通过外包扩充可用产能，能够有效避免客户因等待时间过长而流向竞争对手，从而巩 固其在高端封装市场的统治地位。 ***************END*************** 半导体公众号推荐 半导体论坛百万微信群 加群步骤： ...

Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is increasingly seeking alternative solutions due to the ongoing tight capacity for advanced packaging at TSMC, with Marvell and MediaTek evaluating the integration of Intel's EMIB technology into their ASIC chip designs [2][4]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - TSMC faces dual challenges: the inability to rapidly expand its advanced packaging capacity in the short term and the demand from U.S. clients for localizing the entire supply chain, which TSMC's U.S. backend capacity is not yet fully equipped to meet [4]. Group 2: Technological Developments - Intel's EMIB technology, which utilizes a 2.5D packaging architecture, is gaining attention for its unique advantages in heterogeneous chip integration [4]. - Recent job postings from leading companies like Apple, Qualcomm, and Broadcom explicitly mention EMIB-related positions, indicating a proactive approach to talent acquisition in the advanced packaging sector [4]. - Intel's newly launched 3.5D packaging technology achieves higher chip interconnect density through more precise silicon vias, further enhancing its competitive edge [4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The embedded bridge solution used in EMIB offers advantages in cost control and yield improvement compared to traditional intermediary layer designs, making it a key focus as advanced process evolution slows down [4]. - The shift of multiple companies towards the EMIB solution not only reflects current supply chain adaptation strategies but may also reshape the competitive landscape of the semiconductor packaging industry [4].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is considering expanding its 3nm wafer production capacity by an additional 20,000 wafers per month, potentially increasing its total capacity from 140,000-150,000 wafers per month to 160,000-170,000 wafers per month by 2026, driven by strong demand from clients like NVIDIA [1][2][8] Group 1: Capacity Expansion - Morgan Stanley reports that TSMC's 3nm capacity may increase due to high demand from major clients, particularly NVIDIA [1][2] - TSMC's management indicated that all new cleanroom space will be allocated for 2nm expansion, necessitating adjustments in existing facilities to accommodate 3nm production [2] - The potential expansion could require an additional capital expenditure of $5 billion to $7 billion, raising TSMC's total capital expenditure forecast for 2026 to a range of $48 billion to $50 billion [1][5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The demand for 3nm wafers is becoming increasingly urgent as major AI companies like NVIDIA and AMD place significant orders [2][8] - The report suggests that the bottleneck in AI chip supply has shifted from advanced packaging (CoWoS) to front-end wafer manufacturing capabilities and critical materials like ABF substrates [7][8] - By 2025, AI-related revenue is expected to account for 25% of TSMC's total revenue, indicating a strong growth trajectory in the AI sector [8] Group 3: Implications for the Semiconductor Industry - The anticipated increase in capital expenditure is viewed positively for the global semiconductor equipment industry, as it reflects TSMC's confidence in future market demand [5] - The shift in focus from packaging to wafer production highlights the evolving challenges within the semiconductor supply chain [7][8] - TSMC's expansion plans are a direct response to the ongoing capital race in the semiconductor industry, driven by the insatiable demand for advanced chips [8]

Core Insights - NVIDIA has begun domestic production of its Blackwell AI chips in the U.S., marking a significant milestone in the "chip manufacturing return to America" initiative [1][4] - The demand for AI computing infrastructure is surging, driven by major tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta investing heavily in AI GPU and ASIC clusters [1][2] - TSMC's expansion in the U.S. is set to enhance the domestic chip supply chain and support the growing AI technology stack [4][5] Industry Trends - The AI investment boom has led to unprecedented stock market growth, with the S&P 500 and MSCI global indices reaching historical highs since April [2] - TSMC's strong performance and optimistic revenue outlook have reinforced the narrative of a long-term bull market in AI-related stocks [2][6] - The AI infrastructure market is expected to see exponential growth, with estimates of total investment reaching between $2 trillion to $3 trillion [8] Company Performance - NVIDIA's stock has increased by 40% this year, with a current market capitalization of approximately $4.45 trillion, and analysts predict it could reach $5 trillion [2][9] - TSMC's stock has also performed well, with a year-to-date increase of over 50%, surpassing NVIDIA's growth [2] - TSMC reported a record net profit in Q3, exceeding expectations by 39%, and raised its revenue growth forecast for 2025 to a midpoint of 30% [6] Strategic Developments - NVIDIA and TSMC's collaboration in the U.S. aligns with U.S. government policies aimed at strengthening domestic semiconductor manufacturing capabilities [4] - TSMC plans to produce advanced chips, including 2nm, 3nm, and 4nm technologies, at its Arizona facility by 2028, which is crucial for AI and high-performance computing applications [5][6] - Major AI players, including OpenAI, are engaging in large-scale infrastructure deals, indicating a robust demand for AI computing resources [7][8]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reports that TSMC's gross margin performance in Q3 exceeded expectations, with guidance for Q4 indicating continued growth in gross margin [1] - The company's outlook on AI has become more positive, with demand projections for AI stronger than three months ago, maintaining a long-term compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 45% for AI revenue, with potential for future upward adjustments [1] - TSMC is expected to increase its market share in the AI infrastructure market due to its leadership in advanced processes and packaging, with AI revenue growth potentially surpassing the overall market growth [1] Group 2 - TSMC is actively working to enhance its CoWoS advanced packaging capacity by 2026 to address supply-demand gaps [1] - Goldman Sachs has raised its earnings per share forecast for TSMC for 2025 to 2027 by 5% to 9%, and increased the target price for TSMC stock from NT$1600 to NT$1720, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - Citigroup has also raised its target price for TSMC to NT$1800, reiterating a "Buy" rating [2]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC reported a record net profit of NT$452.3 billion for Q3 2025, driven by strong demand from AI investments and major clients like Apple, despite facing challenges from U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions [1][2][11]. Financial Performance - Q3 revenue reached NT$989.92 billion, a 30.3% year-on-year increase, with a net profit growth of 39.1% [1][11]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 59.5%, with an operating margin of 50.6% and a net profit margin of 45.7% [11]. - TSMC has revised its full-year revenue growth forecast to 34-36%, up from nearly 30% previously [2][11]. Capital Expenditure - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2025 is projected to be between $40 billion and $42 billion, with an average of $41 billion, reflecting an increase from the previous average of $40 billion [3][12]. - Capital expenditures for Q3 were $9.7 billion, bringing the total for the first three quarters to $29.39 billion [3][12]. AI Market Outlook - TSMC's chairman emphasized the ongoing strong demand for AI-related products, with expectations of maintaining a compound annual growth rate of around 40% for AI business [5][6][9]. - The company is adapting to the evolving AI landscape by enhancing its production capabilities and collaborating closely with clients [9][10]. Global Strategy - TSMC's global expansion strategy is based on customer demand, geographical flexibility, and government support [12]. - The company is accelerating the introduction of advanced processes in its Arizona facility and expanding its operations in Japan and Germany [13][12]. Advanced Process Development - TSMC's 2nm process is set to enter trial production in Q4 2025, with mass production expected next year [13]. - The company is also focusing on advanced packaging technologies to meet increasing demand [13].