国芯网[原:中国半导体论坛] 振兴国产半导体产业！ 不拘中国、 放眼世界 ！ 关注 世界半导体论坛 ↓ ↓ ↓ 11月25日消息，据媒体报道，在台积电CoWoS先进封装产能持续紧缺的背景下，半导体行业对替代方案的需求日益凸显。近日，Marvell美满电子与联发 科正评估将英特尔EMIB技术引入其ASIC芯片设计选项，引发业界广泛关注。 当前，台积电面临双重挑战：一方面，其先进封装产能短期内难以迅速扩张；另一方面，美国客户对全产业链本土化提出要求，而台积电及其供应链在美 国的后段产能布局尚未完备。 这一供需矛盾使英特尔的EMIB技术成为备受关注的替代路径。该技术采用2.5D封装架构，在异构芯片集成方面展现出独特优势。 行业动态进一步印证了这一趋势。苹果、高通与博通近期发布的招聘信息中，均明确提及EMIB相关技术职位，显示出领先企业正积极布局先进封装领域 的人才储备。此外，英特尔最新推出的3.5D封装技术，通过更精密的硅通孔实现了更高密度的芯片互联。 半导体公众号推荐 半导体论坛百万微信群 加群步骤： 值得关注的是，EMIB采用的嵌入式桥接方案，相较于传统中介层设计，在成本控制与良率提升方面更具优势。随着先进制程 ...

Core Viewpoint - TSMC is considering expanding its 3nm wafer production capacity by an additional 20,000 wafers per month, potentially increasing its total capacity from 140,000-150,000 wafers per month to 160,000-170,000 wafers per month by 2026, driven by strong demand from clients like NVIDIA [1][2][8] Group 1: Capacity Expansion - Morgan Stanley reports that TSMC's 3nm capacity may increase due to high demand from major clients, particularly NVIDIA [1][2] - TSMC's management indicated that all new cleanroom space will be allocated for 2nm expansion, necessitating adjustments in existing facilities to accommodate 3nm production [2] - The potential expansion could require an additional capital expenditure of $5 billion to $7 billion, raising TSMC's total capital expenditure forecast for 2026 to a range of $48 billion to $50 billion [1][5] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The demand for 3nm wafers is becoming increasingly urgent as major AI companies like NVIDIA and AMD place significant orders [2][8] - The report suggests that the bottleneck in AI chip supply has shifted from advanced packaging (CoWoS) to front-end wafer manufacturing capabilities and critical materials like ABF substrates [7][8] - By 2025, AI-related revenue is expected to account for 25% of TSMC's total revenue, indicating a strong growth trajectory in the AI sector [8] Group 3: Implications for the Semiconductor Industry - The anticipated increase in capital expenditure is viewed positively for the global semiconductor equipment industry, as it reflects TSMC's confidence in future market demand [5] - The shift in focus from packaging to wafer production highlights the evolving challenges within the semiconductor supply chain [7][8] - TSMC's expansion plans are a direct response to the ongoing capital race in the semiconductor industry, driven by the insatiable demand for advanced chips [8]

Core Insights - NVIDIA has begun domestic production of its Blackwell AI chips in the U.S., marking a significant milestone in the "chip manufacturing return to America" initiative [1][4] - The demand for AI computing infrastructure is surging, driven by major tech companies like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta investing heavily in AI GPU and ASIC clusters [1][2] - TSMC's expansion in the U.S. is set to enhance the domestic chip supply chain and support the growing AI technology stack [4][5] Industry Trends - The AI investment boom has led to unprecedented stock market growth, with the S&P 500 and MSCI global indices reaching historical highs since April [2] - TSMC's strong performance and optimistic revenue outlook have reinforced the narrative of a long-term bull market in AI-related stocks [2][6] - The AI infrastructure market is expected to see exponential growth, with estimates of total investment reaching between $2 trillion to $3 trillion [8] Company Performance - NVIDIA's stock has increased by 40% this year, with a current market capitalization of approximately $4.45 trillion, and analysts predict it could reach $5 trillion [2][9] - TSMC's stock has also performed well, with a year-to-date increase of over 50%, surpassing NVIDIA's growth [2] - TSMC reported a record net profit in Q3, exceeding expectations by 39%, and raised its revenue growth forecast for 2025 to a midpoint of 30% [6] Strategic Developments - NVIDIA and TSMC's collaboration in the U.S. aligns with U.S. government policies aimed at strengthening domestic semiconductor manufacturing capabilities [4] - TSMC plans to produce advanced chips, including 2nm, 3nm, and 4nm technologies, at its Arizona facility by 2028, which is crucial for AI and high-performance computing applications [5][6] - Major AI players, including OpenAI, are engaging in large-scale infrastructure deals, indicating a robust demand for AI computing resources [7][8]

Group 1 - Goldman Sachs reports that TSMC's gross margin performance in Q3 exceeded expectations, with guidance for Q4 indicating continued growth in gross margin [1] - The company's outlook on AI has become more positive, with demand projections for AI stronger than three months ago, maintaining a long-term compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 45% for AI revenue, with potential for future upward adjustments [1] - TSMC is expected to increase its market share in the AI infrastructure market due to its leadership in advanced processes and packaging, with AI revenue growth potentially surpassing the overall market growth [1] Group 2 - TSMC is actively working to enhance its CoWoS advanced packaging capacity by 2026 to address supply-demand gaps [1] - Goldman Sachs has raised its earnings per share forecast for TSMC for 2025 to 2027 by 5% to 9%, and increased the target price for TSMC stock from NT$1600 to NT$1720, maintaining a "Buy" rating [1] - Citigroup has also raised its target price for TSMC to NT$1800, reiterating a "Buy" rating [2]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC reported a record net profit of NT$452.3 billion for Q3 2025, driven by strong demand from AI investments and major clients like Apple, despite facing challenges from U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions [1][2][11]. Financial Performance - Q3 revenue reached NT$989.92 billion, a 30.3% year-on-year increase, with a net profit growth of 39.1% [1][11]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 59.5%, with an operating margin of 50.6% and a net profit margin of 45.7% [11]. - TSMC has revised its full-year revenue growth forecast to 34-36%, up from nearly 30% previously [2][11]. Capital Expenditure - TSMC's capital expenditure for 2025 is projected to be between $40 billion and $42 billion, with an average of $41 billion, reflecting an increase from the previous average of $40 billion [3][12]. - Capital expenditures for Q3 were $9.7 billion, bringing the total for the first three quarters to $29.39 billion [3][12]. AI Market Outlook - TSMC's chairman emphasized the ongoing strong demand for AI-related products, with expectations of maintaining a compound annual growth rate of around 40% for AI business [5][6][9]. - The company is adapting to the evolving AI landscape by enhancing its production capabilities and collaborating closely with clients [9][10]. Global Strategy - TSMC's global expansion strategy is based on customer demand, geographical flexibility, and government support [12]. - The company is accelerating the introduction of advanced processes in its Arizona facility and expanding its operations in Japan and Germany [13][12]. Advanced Process Development - TSMC's 2nm process is set to enter trial production in Q4 2025, with mass production expected next year [13]. - The company is also focusing on advanced packaging technologies to meet increasing demand [13].

Core Viewpoint - HSBC upgraded Nvidia's rating to "Buy" and raised the target price from $200 to $320, indicating a potential upside of 78% based on two key signals [3][4]. Group 1: Capacity Allocation and Revenue Projections - Nvidia's allocation for TSMC's CoWoS advanced packaging capacity is expected to increase from 480,000 wafers to 700,000 wafers in fiscal year 2027, representing a year-on-year growth of 140% [4][5]. - The adjustment in capacity allocation is projected to drive Nvidia's data center revenue to $351 billion for fiscal year 2027, which is 36% higher than the market consensus of $258 billion [3][4]. - In an optimistic scenario, if capacity reaches 800,000 wafers, data center revenue could potentially reach $390 billion, corresponding to an earnings per share of $9.68, which is 11% higher than the baseline scenario [5]. Group 2: AI Market and Revenue Opportunities - The report highlights a significant "closed-loop transaction" involving Nvidia's investment of up to $100 billion in OpenAI, which has signed a $300 billion five-year partnership with Oracle to deploy Stargate capacity, with Oracle purchasing GPUs from Nvidia [6][7]. - The estimated revenue opportunity from the Stargate and OpenAI commitments is projected to be between $251 billion and $400 billion, nearly double Nvidia's current fiscal year 2027 forecast [6][7]. - Different chip generations have varying power consumption, leading to different revenue projections based on chip type, with potential revenues ranging from $2.51 billion to $400 billion depending on the chip used [7].

Core Insights - The demand for AI and high-performance computing (HPC) remains strong, leading to full capacity utilization for TSMC's advanced packaging in the coming year [1] - Major players like ASE Technology and KYEC are also experiencing significant orders, prompting them to expand production [1] - The generative AI wave initiated by OpenAI is driving explosive growth in HPC orders from companies like NVIDIA and AMD, with demand expected to last at least until the end of next year [1] Group 1 - TSMC is the sole supplier of high-performance computing capacity for NVIDIA and AMD, with its 2nm and 3nm advanced processes and SoIC, CoWoS advanced packaging fully booked [1] - ASE Technology is accelerating its advanced packaging and testing outsourcing to meet the substantial demand from AI clients [1] - ASE's subsidiary, SPIL, is set to complete its new facilities in Erlin and Douliu next year, alongside the acquisition of a facility in Kaohsiung, enhancing its operational capacity [1] Group 2 - KYEC has successfully secured a major testing order from NVIDIA for high-performance computing, with GB200/300 orders currently in mass production [2] - The testing capacity for NVIDIA's upcoming Rubin platform is expected to commence by the end of this year [2]

Core Viewpoint - Tianyue Advanced (02631) has seen a significant stock price increase, attributed to advancements in silicon carbide (SiC) technology for optical applications, particularly in the production of waveguide lenses for consumer use [1] Company Developments - The chairman of Tianyue Advanced, Zong Yanmin, stated that silicon carbide is an ideal material for optical waveguide lenses, overcoming previous limitations related to substrate size and defects [1] - The company has introduced a 12-inch substrate that can produce 10-12 lenses per substrate, expanding the application of silicon carbide optics from high-end markets to consumer markets [1] - Tianyue Advanced is actively collaborating with leading global optical clients to expedite product introduction, with expectations for silicon carbide optical glasses to soon enter the market [1] Market Potential - The market size for silicon carbide optical waveguide glasses is projected to reach hundreds of millions of units in the future [1] - SiC's high thermal conductivity and processing window are expected to significantly enhance the thermal management of CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) structures and reduce packaging size [1] Industry Trends - Reports indicate that NVIDIA is transitioning the intermediate substrate material for its next-generation Rubin processor design from silicon to silicon carbide to improve thermal performance, with large-scale adoption anticipated by 2027 [1]

Core Viewpoint - TSMC's capital expenditure continues to reach new highs this year, driven by strong global semiconductor expansion demand and investments in advanced packaging and testing, as well as overseas facilities [1] Group 1: Company Performance - FanTian's chairman reported that the company has over NT$90 billion in orders as of August, a historical high, benefiting from the ramp-up of advanced packaging equipment shipments in Taiwan [1] - HanTang announced a record backlog of NT$132.26 billion, with 90% of the revenue expected to be recognized within two years, indicating strong demand from both local and international clients [1] - AsiaX's cumulative backlog reached NT$208.49 billion, with 63% from the semiconductor sector, and is expected to achieve record performance this year due to strong demand in Southeast Asia [2] - YangJi Engineering maintains a high backlog of NT$37.149 billion, with operations expected to improve in the second half of the year, expanding into new sectors beyond semiconductors [2] - ShengHui has secured ten major CSP contracts, pushing its backlog to NT$47 billion, with a 50.1% year-on-year revenue increase in the first eight months of the year [2] Group 2: Market Trends - The global semiconductor industry is experiencing robust expansion, leading to increased orders and capital expenditures from companies involved in advanced packaging and cleanroom supply chains [1][2] - The demand for advanced packaging solutions, particularly CoWoS, is driving significant growth for companies like FanTian and ShengHui, with expectations of continued high operational activity through 2026 [1][2]

Core Viewpoint - Tianyue Advanced (02631) has seen a significant stock price increase, reaching a new high of 54.55 HKD, driven by advancements in silicon carbide (SiC) substrate products and successful overseas market expansion [1] Company Summary - Tianyue Advanced has strategically positioned itself in the silicon carbide substrate market, offering a product matrix that includes 6/8/12-inch substrates, such as high-purity semi-insulating, conductive P-type, and conductive N-type SiC substrates [1] - The company is recognized as a leading player in the silicon carbide substrate sector, with successful collaborations established with over half of the top ten global power semiconductor manufacturers [1] - The company is actively expanding its overseas market presence, with high-quality conductive SiC substrates being adopted by renowned international companies in the power electronics and automotive electronics sectors, including Infineon, Bosch, and ON Semiconductor [1] Industry Summary - The shift in the semiconductor industry towards advanced packaging technologies, such as the transition from silicon to silicon carbide in the CoWoS packaging process, highlights the growing importance of silicon carbide materials [1] - Applications for silicon carbide substrates are expanding into electric vehicles, AI data centers, and photovoltaic systems, indicating a robust demand in various high-tech sectors [1]