大摩上调英伟达二季度收入预期，从先前的452亿美元调整至466亿美元，超过华尔街共识预期。市场 焦点集中在AI芯片需求结构的变化、Blackwell芯片产能爬坡以及中国市场复运进展三大维度。 随着英伟达新一季度财报发布临近，市场目光再度聚焦这家AI芯片巨头的业绩表现。 据追风交易台，英伟达将于美东时间8月27日美股盘后公布2026财年二季度业绩，随后于下午5点召 开业绩电话会。 大摩最新研报上调了英伟达二季度收入预期，从先前的452亿美元调整至466亿美 元，超过华尔街共识预期。 这一调整源于对供需两端改善的判断——需求在季度内持续提升，而 Blackwell芯片供应瓶颈的缓解为收入增长提供了支撑。 | Figures in $ MMs | | | NVDA: MS vs. Consensus | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | F2Q26E | | | F3Q26E | 2026E | | 2027E | | | | MS | Cons. | MS | Cons. | MS | Cons. | MS ...

Summary of NVIDIA Corp. Earnings Preview Company Overview - **Company**: NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA.O) - **Industry**: Semiconductors - **Market Cap**: $4,471,945 million - **Current Stock Price**: $180.45 - **Price Target**: Increased from $200.00 to $206.00 Key Points Earnings Expectations - Expectations for NVIDIA's upcoming earnings are high, with a strong quarter anticipated, particularly for future growth rather than the current quarter [2][9] - Revenue estimates for July have been raised to $46.6 billion from $45.2 billion, and for October to $52.5 billion from $51.3 billion [9][21] Demand Insights - Demand is characterized as "remarkable," "insatiable," and "massive," particularly from hyperscale customers [4] - A notable shift in commentary from hyperscalers indicates a surge in inference demand, complicating capacity installation [4] - NVIDIA's largest hyperscale customers are driving significant growth, with three out of four highlighted at CES showing over 100% growth [4] Supply Chain Dynamics - Supply remains a critical factor, with improvements noted in rack assembly and overall supply chain dynamics [12][15] - Rack shipments are expected to double in Q3, with a total of approximately 34,000 racks for the year, translating to around $90 billion in revenue for NVIDIA [12] - Blackwell chip shipments are anticipated to accelerate, with estimates of 1.2 million units in October and 1.42 million in January [15] Competitive Landscape - NVIDIA is expected to maintain a significant market share of approximately 85% in 2026, despite competition from AMD and ASICs [18][20] - NVIDIA's R&D investments exceeding $15 billion annually are expected to enhance its competitive edge in AI and cloud solutions [20] Financial Projections - Fiscal Year 2026 estimates have been raised to $273.2 billion in revenue and $6.51 in EPS, reflecting a positive outlook for growth driven by AI and data center demand [21][35] - The consensus for the October quarter has increased by about $1 billion, indicating a positive market sentiment [17] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include uncertainties surrounding China’s market access and the impact of export controls on sales [17][44] - The competitive landscape may shift if AMD or other competitors gain traction in the GPU market [42] Conclusion - NVIDIA is positioned for strong growth driven by robust demand in AI and data centers, with supply chain improvements expected to support revenue growth in the coming quarters [29][35]

Group 1: Semiconductor Tariffs - The core viewpoint is that companies building factories in the U.S. can be exempt from tariffs, benefiting firms like Apple, Nvidia, and TSMC, which have committed to expanding capacity in the U.S. [5][6] - Apple emerges as a significant winner as the tariffs help alleviate major supply chain uncertainties, despite its ongoing challenges in AI breakthroughs [6]. - In the analog chip sector, U.S. companies like Texas Instruments and Microchip may benefit, while European firms like Infineon and STMicroelectronics, with only about 15% of their business in the U.S., may face competitive disadvantages [6]. - In the foundry sector, TSMC and Samsung are expected to maintain growth momentum if they can strategically navigate the tariff impacts, while UMC, with a 15%-20% U.S. market share and lacking domestic production, may be pressured [6]. - U.S. firms like Corning and Coherent in the optical communication sector are likely to gain market share from Chinese competitors [7]. - Applied Materials, due to its significant domestic production and involvement in Apple-related projects, may benefit, while Lam Research's limited U.S. presence puts it at a relative disadvantage [7]. - The current market sentiment favors semiconductor hardware companies over software companies, reflecting a shift in investment preferences [7]. Group 2: Intel and Leadership Concerns - Former President Trump called for Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger to resign, citing conflicts of interest due to Gelsinger's extensive ties with Chinese companies, which could pose national security risks [8][9]. - Gelsinger's investments in China, reportedly exceeding $200 million, have raised concerns, especially given Intel's critical role in the U.S. semiconductor industry [9]. - The recent legal issues faced by Cadence, linked to Gelsinger's previous role as CEO, may further complicate Intel's situation if Gelsinger were to step down, potentially impacting Cadence's business prospects [9]. Group 3: AI Developments - The release of GPT-5 has not met high expectations, with users reporting no significant improvements over the previous version in text processing and search capabilities [14]. - The perceived overhype surrounding GPT-5's capabilities has led to a reassessment of the limitations of scaling laws in AI development [14].

Summary of Conference Call on Greater China Semiconductors Industry Overview - The conference call focused on the **Greater China Semiconductors** industry, particularly the cloud semiconductor (CSP) sector in the Asia Pacific region [1][7]. Key Points 1. **Increased Capital Expenditure (Capex) for Top CSPs**: - The top four US CSPs (Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft) are projected to have a capex of **US$359 billion** in 2025 and **US$454 billion** in 2026, reflecting year-over-year growth of **57%** and **26%** respectively [4][10]. - This is an upward revision from previous forecasts of **38%** and **17%** growth [4]. 2. **Strong Demand from Non-US Markets**: - There is an underestimation of demand from non-US countries, particularly for PCIe/HGX servers, with expectations of strong demand for B200 and B300 products in late 3Q [5][10]. - The AP team noted that tier 2 CSPs are catching up on capex, with the AI server pipeline expected to be larger than that of the top CSPs [10]. 3. **Supply Chain Improvements**: - Supply chain manufacturing issues are improving, with better assembly yields for GB200 racks and no notable issues expected for GB300 sampling starting in 3Q [5][10]. - A specific datacenter project is expected to utilize **28,000 GB200 NVL72 racks** for a **4.5GW** datacenter [5]. 4. **Cloud Capex Growth**: - The cumulative capex for the top 11 cloud providers is expected to reach **US$445 billion** in 2025, an increase from prior estimates, indicating a significant rise in capital intensity [17]. - The overall capital intensity is projected to exceed **18%**, with forecasts suggesting it could surpass **20%** of revenue in 2026 [17]. 5. **Positive Outlook for Aspeed Technology**: - The company maintains an **Overweight (OW)** rating on Aspeed Technology, citing its current valuation of **40x 2026e P/E**, which is below the historical average of **47x** since 2020 [6][11]. Additional Insights - The market appears overly concerned about potential inventory corrections, which may not materialize as expected [11]. - The conference highlighted the importance of ongoing improvements in manufacturing yields and the potential for increased demand from non-US markets, which could provide significant growth opportunities for companies in the semiconductor sector [5][10]. Conclusion - The Greater China Semiconductors industry, particularly in the cloud segment, is poised for substantial growth driven by increased capex from major CSPs, improving supply chain conditions, and strong demand from non-US markets. The positive outlook for specific companies like Aspeed Technology further underscores the potential for investment opportunities in this sector [1][7].

Group 1 - The overall Server market is stabilizing, with ODMs focusing on AI Server development, particularly with NVIDIA's new Blackwell platform products [1] - TrendForce estimates that Blackwell GPUs will account for over 80% of NVIDIA's high-end GPU shipments this year [1] Group 2 - North American CSP giant Oracle is expanding its AI data centers, benefiting companies like Foxconn, Supermicro, and Quanta [2] - Supermicro's growth this year is primarily driven by AI Servers, having secured some GB200 Rack projects [2] - Quanta has successfully expanded its GB200/GB300 Rack business due to collaborations with major clients like Meta, AWS, and Google, along with Oracle orders [2] - Wiwynn is deepening its partnerships with Meta and Microsoft, expecting performance growth in the second half of the year, focusing on ASIC AI Servers [2] Group 3 - The expansion of AI data centers will be crucial for the scaling of the liquid cooling industry [2] - Liquid cooling solutions are increasingly being adopted for high-end AI chips, with new data centers incorporating "Liquid Cooling Ready" designs to enhance thermal management efficiency [2] Group 4 - Liquid cooling is becoming a standard configuration for high-performance AI data centers, driving demand for cooling components [4] - Fositek has begun shipping components for the GB300 platform, competing with Danfoss in the supply of quick connectors for AWS ASIC liquid cooling [4] - Auras is actively entering the data center liquid cooling market, with its business becoming a core growth driver, serving major clients like Oracle, Supermicro, and HPE [4] - Auras has started supplying liquid cooling products to Meta, establishing a foundation for future participation in the GB200 platform's liquid cooling supply chain [4]

Group 1 - TrendForce estimates that Blackwell will account for over 80% of NVIDIA's high-end GPU shipments in 2025 [1] - The overall server market is stabilizing, with ODMs focusing on AI server development [1] - The new Blackwell platform products, including GB200 Rack and HGX B200, have started volume production since Q2 [1] Group 2 - The updated B300 and GB300 series are currently in the sample verification stage [1] - As GB200/GB300 Rack shipments expand in 2025, the adoption rate of liquid cooling solutions for high-end AI chips continues to rise [1]

Group 1 - The overall Server market is stabilizing, with ODMs focusing on AI Server development, and it is expected that Blackwell GPUs will account for over 80% of NVIDIA's high-end GPU shipments this year [1] - North American CSP giant Oracle is expanding its AI data center, benefiting companies like Supermicro and Quanta, with Supermicro's growth driven by AI Server projects [2] - Liquid cooling solutions are becoming a standard configuration for high-performance AI data centers, with increasing adoption rates for high-end AI chips [3] Group 2 - Liquid cooling will significantly boost the demand for cooling components, accelerating the supply chain's output pace, with companies like Fositek and Auras actively engaging in the liquid cooling market [5] - Fositek has begun shipping components for the GB300 platform, while Auras is establishing itself in the liquid cooling market with major clients including Oracle and Supermicro [5]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guojin Securities emphasizes the strong sustainability of performance growth in companies, particularly in AI-PCB, computing hardware, semiconductor self-control, the Apple supply chain, and AI-driven beneficiary industries [1] Industry Insights - AI-PCB is experiencing a demand resonance, with multiple companies in the sector reporting strong orders and full production capacity, leading to high growth expectations for the second half of the year [1][3] - The demand for AI copper-clad laminates is robust, driven by the ramp-up of Nvidia's GB200 and ASICs, with a shift towards M8 materials in AI servers and switches, and potential future adoption of M9 materials [3] - The semiconductor industry indicators show a steady upward trend across various segments, including consumer electronics, PCB, semiconductor chips, and passive components [1] Company Performance - TSMC reported Q2 2025 revenue of $30.07 billion, a year-on-year increase of 44.4% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 17.8%, with a gross margin of 58.6% [2] - TSMC's net profit for the same quarter was $12.8 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 60.7% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 10.2% [2] - TSMC has raised its revenue guidance for Q3 2025 to between $31.8 billion and $33 billion, indicating an 8% quarter-on-quarter growth and a 38% year-on-year growth [2] - Nvidia is set to resume sales of H20 chips to China, with significant orders already received, while Oracle plans to invest $3 billion in Germany and the Netherlands over the next five years to enhance AI and cloud computing infrastructure [2]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI-PCB industry chain, indicating strong demand and growth potential [1][4]. Core Insights - The release of the Grok-4 series model by xAI is expected to drive demand in the AI-PCB sector, with significant increases in computational resources and capabilities compared to previous models [1]. - TSMC reported a revenue of NT$263.79 billion in June, a year-on-year increase of 26.9%, indicating robust AI demand [1]. - The report highlights the anticipated rapid shipment of GB200 and GB300 products in the second half of the year, with strong orders from multiple AI-PCB companies [1][4]. - The semiconductor industry is experiencing a shift towards domestic production and self-sufficiency due to geopolitical factors and export controls [24]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The AI-PCB industry is witnessing a demand resonance, with many companies experiencing strong orders and full production capacity [4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of focusing on performance growth in the first half of the year, particularly in AI-PCB and core computing hardware sectors [4]. 2. Segment Insights 2.1 Consumer Electronics - The launch of Samsung's Galaxy Z Fold7 is noted, with a recommendation to focus on the Apple supply chain due to favorable tariff conditions [5][6]. 2.2 PCB - The PCB industry is maintaining a high level of prosperity, driven by demand from automotive and industrial control sectors, alongside AI growth [7]. 2.3 Components - The report indicates a continued upward trend in the component sector, with AI applications driving demand for higher specifications in electronic components [19]. 2.4 IC Design - The storage segment is expected to see price increases due to supply constraints and rising demand from cloud computing and consumer electronics [21]. 2.5 Semiconductor Equipment and Materials - The report highlights the ongoing trend of domestic substitution in the semiconductor equipment sector, with a focus on advanced packaging and HBM production [24][27]. 3. Key Companies - Companies such as Huadian, North Huachuang, and Jiangfeng Electronics are highlighted for their strong growth prospects in the AI and semiconductor sectors [33][34][37]. - The report suggests that these companies are well-positioned to benefit from the ongoing trends in AI and domestic production [34][36].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the intense competition for AI talent in Silicon Valley, highlighting the rapid advancements in AI technology and the aggressive recruitment strategies employed by major tech companies to attract top experts in the field [1][5][6]. Group 1: AI Talent Competition - Since the launch of ChatGPT at the end of 2022, there has been a significant increase in demand for mid to senior-level AI talent, while entry-level tech job demand has dropped by 50% [5][6]. - Silicon Valley and New York attract over 65% of AI engineers, despite high living costs and the flexibility of remote work [5][6]. - The scarcity of top AI talent is a critical factor in the competition, with estimates suggesting that only a few dozen to a thousand researchers can drive significant breakthroughs in AI technology [6]. Group 2: Recruitment Strategies - Major tech companies like Meta, OpenAI, Google DeepMind, and Anthropic are offering exorbitant salaries, stock incentives, and strategic acquisitions to secure AI talent [6][7]. - Meta has notably led a recruitment drive, successfully hiring several key researchers from OpenAI, enhancing its capabilities in AI development [7][8]. - Meta's recruitment offers include signing bonuses up to $150 million and total contract values reaching $300 million, which are considered highly competitive in the industry [9]. Group 3: AI Chip Development - AI chip manufacturers are releasing new platforms almost annually, with Nvidia's roadmap indicating new products based on the Rubin architecture expected to ship in the second half of next year [1][3]. - AMD is also set to release its MI400 chip in the first half of next year, indicating ongoing advancements in AI hardware [2].