然而，由于芯片的复杂性、性能、成本和价值各不相同，《华尔街日报》并未透露美国政府计划如何统计进口集成电路 的数量。100万个智能手机应用处理器（例如苹果的A19/A19 Pro）远不及100万个高性能AI加速器（例如英伟达的 B300）。 公众号记得加星标⭐️，第一时间看推送不会错过。 来源 ： 内容来自 tomshardware，谢谢 。 美国政府新规：芯片制造商每从其他国家进口一块芯片，就必须在美国生产一块，才能避免 100% 的关税——据称，特 朗普政府正在根据新关税计划制定新的 1:1 芯片出口规则。 但不同复杂程度的芯片如何计算仍是未知数。 据《华尔街日报》报道，特朗普政府正在制定一项政策，要求半导体公司将其国内芯片产量与其客户进口到美国的芯片 数量进行匹配。如果芯片制造商未能长期保持1:1的比例，他们将不得不支付巨额进口关税。该计划旨在促进国内芯片生 产，并可能重塑全球供应链，但它带来的物流和技术挑战可能会使其实施变得复杂。 根据《华尔街日报》援引的草案，芯片制造商需要将每块进口芯片与一块美国制造的芯片进行匹配。如果他们长期未能 做到这一点，将被处以进口关税的惩罚，最高可达100%。这一做法的意义 ...

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley maintains an "Overweight" rating on TSMC (TSM.US) with a target price of NT$1,275, citing significant increases in CoWoS capacity projections for 2026 and 2027 [1] Group 1: TSMC Capacity Expansion - TSMC's CoWoS capacity is expected to reach 95,000 wafers per month by the end of 2026 and further increase to 112,000 wafers per month by the end of 2027, which is a notable upgrade from previous forecasts [1] - The expansion is primarily driven by the planned capacity construction of the AP8 factory, expected to commence production in mid-2026, alongside sustained demand from key clients such as NVIDIA, Broadcom, and AMD [1] - From the second half of 2026, full-stack CoWoS packaging orders for non-AI products will begin to shift to OSAT partners, mainly ASE, allowing TSMC to focus more on the CoW (Chip-on-Wafer) segment [1] Group 2: Client Demand Insights - Broadcom is projected to have a CoWoS allocation of 185,000 wafers in 2026, representing a 93% year-over-year increase, driven mainly by demand from Google's TPU project [2] - Morgan Stanley estimates that TPU shipments will reach 2.5 million units in 2026, a 38% increase year-over-year, with additional contributions from Meta's first CoWoS-based ASIC (Athena) and OpenAI's ASIC projects [2] - NVIDIA's demand is expected to remain robust in the first half of 2026 due to increased chip sizes and strong B300 demand, with an estimated production of 2.9 million Rubin GPUs [3] Group 3: AMD's Growth Dynamics - AMD's CoWoS demand is expected to remain stable in 2025 but will grow in 2026 with the ramp-up of MI400/MI450 series and Venice CPU, which utilize HBM and CoWoS-S packaging [4] - The adoption rate of MI400/450 (using CoWoS-L) will be a key variable for AMD's growth trajectory, while the company plans to expand 2.5D/wafers-level fan-out packaging applications in gaming GPUs and high-end server/PC CPUs in 2026/27 [4]

Group 1 - Broadcom's AI semiconductor revenue reached $5.2 billion in FY25Q3, representing a 63% year-over-year increase and an $800 million quarter-over-quarter increase, exceeding previous guidance of $5.1 billion [1] - The XPU business accounted for 65% of AI semiconductor revenue, with expectations for AI revenue to reach $6.2 billion in FY25Q4, reflecting a $1 billion quarter-over-quarter increase [1] - Broadcom's total backlog reached $110 billion, with a new customer securing $10 billion in AI orders, indicating potential growth in FY26 [1] Group 2 - The demand for ASICs is expected to surge due to increased downstream inference demand, with major companies like Google, Amazon, and Meta rapidly developing ASIC chips [1] - NVIDIA's NVL72 rack quantity is anticipated to exceed expectations next year due to strong demand and improved yield capacity [1] - The AI PCB market is expected to see significant growth, with companies actively expanding production in response to strong orders [1] Group 3 - The investment outlook is positive for AI-PCB and computing hardware, as well as the Apple supply chain and industries benefiting from AI-driven and self-controlled technologies [2] - The demand for AI copper-clad laminates is robust, with a shift towards M8 materials in AI servers and switches, and potential future adoption of M9 materials [2] - Various segments such as consumer electronics, PCB, semiconductor chips, and passive components are showing stable to upward trends in their respective markets [2]

Core Insights - IREN Limited's shares surged 9.93% to close at $29.11 on September 2, following a 26.3% rally in the past two trading sessions after the release of its fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 results [1] Financial Performance - IREN reported fourth-quarter fiscal 2025 earnings of $0.08 per share, which fell short of the Zacks Consensus Estimate by 52.94% [2] - The company achieved a net income of $176.9 million, a significant recovery from a loss of $16.3 million in the previous quarter [2] - Total revenues increased by 29.4% sequentially to $187.3 million, although this figure missed the consensus mark by 0.64% [2] Revenue Breakdown - Bitcoin revenues reached $180.3 million, reflecting a sequential increase of 27.7% [4] - AI Cloud Services revenues grew to $7 million, up from $3.6 million in the previous quarter [4] Operational Efficiency - IREN's bitcoin mining operations benefited from a fleet efficiency of 15 joules per terahash and low net power costs of $0.035 per kilowatt hour [4] - The average revenue per bitcoin mined was $98.8, with a total of 1,825 bitcoins mined in the reported quarter [4] Growth in AI Cloud Services - The AI cloud business is rapidly expanding, with over 10,000 GPUs online or set to be commissioned soon [5] - IREN has achieved NVIDIA Preferred Partner status and is set to install next-generation liquid-cooled GB300 NVL72 systems [5] Adjusted EBITDA - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $121.9 million, up from $82.9 million in the previous quarter, with an adjusted EBITDA margin expanding to 65% from 57% [5] Operating Expenses - Operating expenses increased to $114 million due to overheads, depreciation costs, and increased expenses related to bitcoin mining and GPU hardware [6] Balance Sheet Strength - As of June 30, 2025, IREN had $564.5 million in cash and cash equivalents [7] - The company expects to fully fund its expansion to 10.9k GPUs through a combination of existing cash, cash flows from operations, and GPU financing [7] Future Guidance - IREN is on track to achieve $1.25 billion in annualized revenues by December 2025, with approximately $1 billion expected from bitcoin mining and $200-$250 million from AI Cloud [8] - The company plans to scale its GPU count from 1.9k to 10.9k in the coming months [8]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The demand for AI is strong, coupled with improvements in supply chain output, leading to a positive long-term investment outlook for the company [8] - The company has entered a smoother ramp-up period for its GB300 series, and its networking business has exceeded market expectations, indicating a strengthening ecosystem around its chip business [8] - The forecast for GAAP net profit for FY2027-2028 has been adjusted upwards to $146.65 billion and $170.73 billion, reflecting year-on-year growth of 36.9% and 16.4% respectively [8] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - Revenue for FY2026 is projected at $204.62 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 56.8% [11] - Net profit for FY2026 is estimated at $107.13 billion, showing a year-on-year increase of 47.0% [11] - The non-GAAP gross margin for Q2 was 72.4%, slightly above Bloomberg's consensus estimate of 72.1% [9] - The company’s P/E ratios for FY2026, FY2027, and FY2028 are projected at 39.4, 28.4, and 24.4 respectively [11]

Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley raised Nvidia's Q2 revenue forecast from $45.2 billion to $46.6 billion, exceeding Wall Street consensus expectations, driven by improving supply and demand dynamics, particularly in AI chip demand and Blackwell chip production capacity [1][3][6]. Group 1: AI Chip Demand Structure - The demand for Nvidia's products has shifted from "supply constraints" to "sustained growth," with major companies like Amazon, Google, and Meta indicating that even with increased data center investments, they cannot fully meet their computing needs, creating a solid foundation for Nvidia's revenue growth [8]. - Secondary cloud vendors and sovereign customers are emerging as significant demand sources, with companies like CoreWeave planning substantial capital expenditures, indicating a broader customer base for Nvidia [8]. Group 2: Blackwell Chip Production Capacity - The ramp-up of Blackwell chip production is a key variable affecting Nvidia's short-term performance, with ODM manufacturers expected to double their rack shipments within the year [10]. - Deutsche Bank reported that Blackwell chip revenue could reach $24 billion in Q1, nearly doubling from $11 billion in Q4 of the previous year, compensating for revenue losses due to issues in the Chinese market [10]. - The easing of back-end testing bottlenecks is also supporting capacity release, with significant increases in testing unit deliveries expected [10]. Group 3: Market Share and Competitive Position - Morgan Stanley projects Nvidia will maintain approximately 85% market share in 2026, significantly ahead of competitors like AMD, due to its hardware performance and over $5 billion annual R&D investment creating a robust software ecosystem [11]. - Companies that previously relied on ASICs, such as Google, are expected to increase spending on Nvidia by over three times this year, highlighting Nvidia's irreplaceable position in mainstream AI workloads [11]. Group 4: China Market Recovery - The market is closely watching Nvidia's ability to resume shipments to China, with Deutsche Bank estimating that if permissions are granted, Nvidia's Q3 revenue could increase by $50 billion [12]. - The approval for Nvidia to sell H20 chips to China could enhance earnings per share by 10%, even after accounting for a 15% licensing fee to the U.S. government [12].

Core Viewpoint - Nvidia is expected to report strong Q2 earnings for FY2026, with revenue estimates raised to $46.6 billion, surpassing Wall Street consensus due to improved supply and demand dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Revenue and Earnings Expectations - Morgan Stanley has increased Nvidia's Q2 revenue forecast from $45.2 billion to $46.6 billion, reflecting a 5.9% quarter-over-quarter growth [2]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for Q2 is $1.03, slightly above the consensus of $1.00 [2]. - For FY2026, Nvidia's total revenue is projected at $203.4 billion, exceeding the consensus of $201.4 billion [2]. Group 2: Demand Dynamics - Demand for Nvidia's products has shifted from "supply-constrained" to "sustained growth," with major clients like Amazon, Google, and Meta indicating a significant increase in demand for computing power [6]. - Secondary cloud providers and sovereign clients are emerging as important demand sources, diversifying Nvidia's customer base beyond just large tech firms [6]. Group 3: Supply Chain and Production Capacity - The ramp-up of Blackwell chip production is crucial for Nvidia's short-term performance, with ODM manufacturers expected to double their rack shipments within the year [7]. - Deutsche Bank reports that Blackwell chip revenue could reach $24 billion in Q1, nearly doubling from $11 billion in Q4 of the previous year [7]. - Improvements in testing bottlenecks and supply chain maturity are expected to support production capacity and revenue growth [7]. Group 4: Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Nvidia is projected to maintain an 85% market share in 2026, significantly ahead of competitors like AMD, due to its superior hardware performance and substantial annual R&D investment exceeding $5 billion [8]. - Companies like Google are expected to triple their spending on Nvidia products this year, highlighting Nvidia's irreplaceable role in mainstream AI workloads [8]. Group 5: Potential Growth from China Market - If Nvidia receives approval to resume shipments to China, Q3 revenue could increase by $50 billion, with a potential 10% EPS boost even after accounting for a 15% licensing fee [8]. - Recent reports indicate that the U.S. has expressed willingness to approve the sale of Nvidia's H20 chips to China, which could further enhance growth prospects [8].

Group 1 - Nvidia is set to release its latest earnings report next Wednesday, with the third-quarter guidance being a key focus for the market [1] - KeyBanc Capital Markets indicates that Nvidia may temporarily exclude direct revenue from the Chinese market in its next fiscal guidance due to uncertainties surrounding semiconductor export licenses [1] - If Nvidia's business in China, based on chips like H20 and RTX6000D (B40), were included, it could have generated an additional revenue of $2 billion to $3 billion [1] Group 2 - Despite short-term uncertainties in the Chinese market, Nvidia's business fundamentals remain strong, providing robust support for long-term growth [2] - KeyBanc highlights significant improvements in Nvidia's GPU supply and capacity, which are core drivers of its sustained performance [2] - Data shows a 40% increase in Nvidia's GPU supply for the quarter ending in July, with an expected further 20% growth by October due to the ramp-up of B200 chips [2] Group 3 - Wall Street maintains an optimistic outlook, with KeyBanc raising Nvidia's target price from $190 to $215 while maintaining an "overweight" rating [3] - Susquehanna analysts also see continued momentum in Nvidia's data center business, raising their target price from $180 to $210 and maintaining a "positive" rating [3] - Despite the target price increases from two Wall Street firms, Nvidia's stock price fell approximately 2.5% on Wednesday morning [3]

Summary of NVIDIA Corp. Earnings Preview Company Overview - **Company**: NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA.O) - **Industry**: Semiconductors - **Market Cap**: $4,471,945 million - **Current Stock Price**: $180.45 - **Price Target**: Increased from $200.00 to $206.00 Key Points Earnings Expectations - Expectations for NVIDIA's upcoming earnings are high, with a strong quarter anticipated, particularly for future growth rather than the current quarter [2][9] - Revenue estimates for July have been raised to $46.6 billion from $45.2 billion, and for October to $52.5 billion from $51.3 billion [9][21] Demand Insights - Demand is characterized as "remarkable," "insatiable," and "massive," particularly from hyperscale customers [4] - A notable shift in commentary from hyperscalers indicates a surge in inference demand, complicating capacity installation [4] - NVIDIA's largest hyperscale customers are driving significant growth, with three out of four highlighted at CES showing over 100% growth [4] Supply Chain Dynamics - Supply remains a critical factor, with improvements noted in rack assembly and overall supply chain dynamics [12][15] - Rack shipments are expected to double in Q3, with a total of approximately 34,000 racks for the year, translating to around $90 billion in revenue for NVIDIA [12] - Blackwell chip shipments are anticipated to accelerate, with estimates of 1.2 million units in October and 1.42 million in January [15] Competitive Landscape - NVIDIA is expected to maintain a significant market share of approximately 85% in 2026, despite competition from AMD and ASICs [18][20] - NVIDIA's R&D investments exceeding $15 billion annually are expected to enhance its competitive edge in AI and cloud solutions [20] Financial Projections - Fiscal Year 2026 estimates have been raised to $273.2 billion in revenue and $6.51 in EPS, reflecting a positive outlook for growth driven by AI and data center demand [21][35] - The consensus for the October quarter has increased by about $1 billion, indicating a positive market sentiment [17] Risks and Considerations - Potential risks include uncertainties surrounding China’s market access and the impact of export controls on sales [17][44] - The competitive landscape may shift if AMD or other competitors gain traction in the GPU market [42] Conclusion - NVIDIA is positioned for strong growth driven by robust demand in AI and data centers, with supply chain improvements expected to support revenue growth in the coming quarters [29][35]

Group 1: Semiconductor Tariffs - The core viewpoint is that companies building factories in the U.S. can be exempt from tariffs, benefiting firms like Apple, Nvidia, and TSMC, which have committed to expanding capacity in the U.S. [5][6] - Apple emerges as a significant winner as the tariffs help alleviate major supply chain uncertainties, despite its ongoing challenges in AI breakthroughs [6]. - In the analog chip sector, U.S. companies like Texas Instruments and Microchip may benefit, while European firms like Infineon and STMicroelectronics, with only about 15% of their business in the U.S., may face competitive disadvantages [6]. - In the foundry sector, TSMC and Samsung are expected to maintain growth momentum if they can strategically navigate the tariff impacts, while UMC, with a 15%-20% U.S. market share and lacking domestic production, may be pressured [6]. - U.S. firms like Corning and Coherent in the optical communication sector are likely to gain market share from Chinese competitors [7]. - Applied Materials, due to its significant domestic production and involvement in Apple-related projects, may benefit, while Lam Research's limited U.S. presence puts it at a relative disadvantage [7]. - The current market sentiment favors semiconductor hardware companies over software companies, reflecting a shift in investment preferences [7]. Group 2: Intel and Leadership Concerns - Former President Trump called for Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger to resign, citing conflicts of interest due to Gelsinger's extensive ties with Chinese companies, which could pose national security risks [8][9]. - Gelsinger's investments in China, reportedly exceeding $200 million, have raised concerns, especially given Intel's critical role in the U.S. semiconductor industry [9]. - The recent legal issues faced by Cadence, linked to Gelsinger's previous role as CEO, may further complicate Intel's situation if Gelsinger were to step down, potentially impacting Cadence's business prospects [9]. Group 3: AI Developments - The release of GPT-5 has not met high expectations, with users reporting no significant improvements over the previous version in text processing and search capabilities [14]. - The perceived overhype surrounding GPT-5's capabilities has led to a reassessment of the limitations of scaling laws in AI development [14].