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每周观察 | 2026年CSP资本支出预计达5200亿美元;下半年晶圆代工产能利用率优于预期;NAND厂商加速抢滩大容量SSD…
TrendForce集邦· 2025-10-17 04:11
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the significant increase in capital expenditures by major Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) driven by the growing demand for AI servers and the expansion of data centers, with a projected capital expenditure of $520 billion by 2026 [2] - The combined capital expenditure of eight major CSPs, including Google, AWS, Meta, Microsoft, Oracle, Tencent, Alibaba, and Baidu, is expected to exceed $420 billion in 2025, representing a 61% increase compared to the combined expenditures of 2023 and 2024 [2] Group 2 - The wafer foundry capacity utilization rate for the second half of 2025 is expected to outperform previous expectations due to low inventory levels, the peak sales season for smartphones, and sustained strong AI demand, leading some foundries to consider price increases for certain tight-process platforms [4] Group 3 - The demand for AI inference applications is driving the need for high-capacity storage solutions, prompting HDD and SSD suppliers to expand their offerings of large-capacity storage products, including Nearline SSDs with capacities of 122TB and 245TB [5] - The HDD market is facing a significant supply gap, which is encouraging NAND Flash manufacturers to accelerate their technological advancements to meet the growing demand [5]
机构:预计今年八大CSP资本支出将逾4200亿美元, 同比增长61%
Core Insights - The report by TrendForce indicates a significant increase in capital expenditure (CapEx) among major cloud service providers (CSPs) driven by the rapid expansion of AI server demand, with a projected total CapEx exceeding $420 billion by 2025, representing a 61% year-over-year increase compared to 2023 and 2024 combined [1] - By 2026, the total CapEx for these CSPs is expected to reach over $520 billion, marking a 24% year-over-year growth, as the spending structure shifts towards assets like servers and GPUs to strengthen long-term competitiveness [1] Group 1: CSPs and AI Solutions - The GB200/GB300 Rack is identified as a key AI solution for CSPs, with demand expected to exceed initial forecasts, particularly from North America's top four CSPs and Oracle, as well as companies like Tesla/xAI and Coreweave [2] - CSPs are anticipated to increase their self-developed chip shipments annually, with North American CSPs focusing on AI ASICs to enhance autonomy and cost control in generative AI and large language model computations [2] Group 2: Specific CSP Developments - AWS is set to deploy Trainium v2, with a liquid-cooled version expected by the end of 2025, and Trainium v3 projected to begin mass production in Q1 2026, with a forecasted shipment increase of over 100% in 2025 [3] - Meta is enhancing its collaboration with Broadcom, expecting to mass-produce MTIA v2 by Q4 2025, with significant growth anticipated in shipments [3] - Microsoft plans to produce Maia v2 with GUC's assistance, although its self-developed chip shipments are expected to lag behind competitors in the short term [3] Group 3: Capital Expenditure Trends - Tencent's capital expenditure saw a year-over-year increase of 119% in Q2, reaching 19.107 billion RMB, with total investments exceeding 83.1 billion RMB over the last three quarters [3] - Alibaba's capital expenditure reached a record high of 38.6 billion RMB in Q2 2025, with a commitment to invest 380 billion RMB over the next three years for cloud and AI hardware infrastructure [4]
研报 | 2026年CSP资本支出预计将高达5,200亿美元,GPU采购与ASIC研发成创新高核心驱动力
TrendForce集邦· 2025-10-13 04:08
Core Insights - The article highlights the rapid expansion of AI Server demand, leading major Cloud Service Providers (CSPs) to significantly increase their capital expenditures, projected to exceed $420 billion in 2025, representing a 61% year-over-year growth compared to the combined capital expenditures of 2023 and 2024 [2] - It is anticipated that the total capital expenditure of the eight major CSPs will reach over $520 billion in 2026, marking a 24% increase from 2025, as they shift their spending focus from revenue-generating equipment to assets like servers and GPUs to strengthen long-term competitiveness [2] CSP Capital Expenditure - The demand for the GB200/GB300 Rack AI solutions is expected to grow beyond expectations, with significant interest from major North American CSPs and companies like Tesla, Coreweave, and Nebius for cloud AI leasing services [5] - CSPs are expected to expand their deployment of the GB300 Rack solutions in 2026, transitioning to the NVIDIA Rubin VR200 Rack solutions in the latter half of the year [5] In-house Chip Development - North American CSPs are intensifying their AI ASIC development to enhance autonomy and cost control in generative AI and large language model computations [6] - Google is collaborating with Broadcom on the TPU v7p, expected to ramp up in 2026, while AWS is set to launch the liquid-cooled version of Trainium v2 by the end of 2025, with Trainium v3 expected to enter mass production in early 2026 [6][7] - Meta is enhancing its collaboration with Broadcom, anticipating the mass production of MTIA v2 in Q4 2025, while Microsoft plans to produce Maia v2 with GUC's assistance, although its timeline is lagging behind competitors [7]