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计算机行业双周报(2025、10、17-2025、10、30):“十五五”锚定科技自立自强,国产化大势所趋-20251031
Dongguan Securities· 2025-10-31 09:38
Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the computer industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by more than 10% in the next six months [3][33]. Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes technological self-reliance and independence, indicating a trend towards domestic substitution in key technology areas, which may create new opportunities for industries such as information technology and industrial software [4][28]. - The computer industry index has shown a cumulative increase of 23.72% this year, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 4.02 percentage points [11]. - The current PE TTM for the SW computer sector is 56.78 times, placing it in the 91.18th percentile for the past five years and the 83.18th percentile for the past ten years, indicating a high valuation level [20][21]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Review - The SW computer sector increased by 0.88% over the last two weeks, underperforming the CSI 300 index by 1.10 percentage points, ranking 14th among 31 sectors [11]. - In October, the sector saw a cumulative decline of 3.37%, lagging behind the CSI 300 index by 4.86 percentage points [11]. 2. Valuation Situation - As of October 30, 2025, the SW computer sector's PE TTM stands at 56.78 times, indicating a high valuation compared to historical data [20][21]. 3. Industry News - The "14th Five-Year Plan" highlights the importance of technological innovation and self-reliance, aiming to enhance the country's core technology capabilities [22]. - Major tech companies like Google and Meta have raised their capital expenditure forecasts, reflecting a growing trend in AI investments [22]. - OpenAI plans to submit an IPO application as early as the second half of 2026, with a potential valuation of around $1 trillion [22]. - The successful IPO registration of Moore Threads aligns with national strategies for breakthroughs in the integrated circuit industry [22]. 4. Company Announcements - Various companies reported their third-quarter earnings, with notable growth in revenue and profit for some, such as Inspur Information and Kingsoft Office, indicating a positive trend in demand for technology solutions [24][26][27]. 5. Weekly Perspective - The report suggests focusing on companies with competitive advantages in foundational hardware and software, as well as industrial software, due to the increasing urgency for domestic technology development [28][29].