March NY world sugar #11 (SBH26) on Tuesday closed up +0.04 (+0.27%), and March London ICE white sugar #5 (SWH26) closed down -1.00 (-0.24%). Sugar prices settled mixed on Tuesday, with London sugar falling to a 2.5-month low.   NY sugar recovered from early losses and posted modest gains as some short covering emerged after the Brazilian real (^USDBRL) rallied to a 20-month high.  The stronger real discourages export sales from Brazil's sugar producers. More News from Barchart Higher global sugar prod ...

Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - Sugar prices increased sharply on Friday, with March NY world sugar 11 closing up by 0.39 (+2.68%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 closing up by 10.20 (+2.44%) due to fund short covering ahead of a three-day weekend in the US [1] - On Thursday, NY sugar reached a one-month low, while London sugar fell to a two-month low, influenced by strong sugar production in India [2] Group 2: Production Reports - India's sugar production for the 2025-26 season is projected to rise to 15.9 million metric tons (MMT), reflecting a 21% year-on-year increase [2] - Brazil's cumulative sugar output for the 2025-26 season increased by 0.9% year-on-year to 40.158 MMT, with the ratio of cane crushed for sugar rising to 50.91% in 2025/26 from 48.19% in 2024/25 [3] Group 3: Market Outlook - The global sugar surplus outlook is negatively impacting prices, with Covrig Analytics raising its 2025/26 global sugar surplus estimate to 4.7 MMT from 4.1 MMT [5] - Future sugar supplies from Brazil are expected to decrease, with a projected decline of 3.91% in sugar production for 2026/27 to 41.8 MMT [6] - India's sugar production estimate for 2025/26 was raised to 31 MMT, an 18.8% year-on-year increase, which may enhance India's sugar export potential [7]

Core Insights - Sugar prices experienced mixed movements, with NY world sugar closing down slightly while London ICE white sugar saw a minor increase, influenced by a rally in the dollar index which pressured sugar futures [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Sugar prices initially rose due to expectations of index-related buying for annual commodity index rebalancing, with Citigroup projecting inflows of $1.2 billion into sugar futures contracts over the next week [2] - Last Monday, NY sugar reached a 2.5-month high based on expectations of reduced future sugar supplies from Brazil, with a forecasted production decrease of 3.91% to 41.8 million metric tons (MMT) for 2026/27 [3] - Sugar prices fell to two-week lows due to indications of increased sugar output in India, where production for 2025-26 surged by 25% year-on-year to 11.90 MMT [4] Group 2: Supply and Export Trends - India's food secretary indicated potential for additional sugar exports to alleviate domestic supply issues, with a quota allowing mills to export 1.5 MMT in the 2025/26 season [5] - Brazil's crop forecasting agency raised its sugar production estimate for 2025/26 to 45 MMT, contributing to a bearish outlook for sugar prices [6] - The cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South region increased by 1.1% year-on-year to 39.904 MMT, with a higher ratio of cane crushed for sugar [6]

Core Insights - Sugar prices have recently increased, reaching one-week highs due to expectations of index-related buying for annual rebalancing, with projected inflows of $1.2 billion into sugar futures contracts from major commodity indexes [2] Group 1: Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 is up +0.08 (+0.53%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 is up +2.00 (+0.47%) [1] - Sugar prices fell to two-week lows last Friday due to signs of stronger sugar output in India [5] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - The Brazilian real's recent strength is supportive for sugar prices as it discourages export sales, potentially reducing supplies [3] - Brazil's sugar production is expected to decline by -3.91% to 41.8 million metric tons (MMT) in 2026/27, with exports projected to fall -11% year-on-year to 30 MMT [4] Group 3: Indian Sugar Production - Indian sugar production for 2025-26 has increased by 25% year-on-year to 11.90 MMT, with the overall production estimate raised to 31 MMT, up +18.8% year-on-year [5] - The Indian government may permit additional sugar exports to alleviate domestic supply issues, allowing mills to export 1.5 MMT in the 2025/26 season [6]

Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 is up +0.25 (+1.69%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 is up +5.40 (+1.27%) due to recent strength in the Brazilian real, which discourages export sales from Brazil's sugar producers [1] - Sugar prices fell to 2-week lows last Friday on signs of stronger sugar output in India, with Indian sugar production for 2025-26 jumping 25% y/y to 11.90 MMT [2] - NY sugar matched a 2.5-month high on expectations of smaller future sugar supplies from Brazil, with consulting firm Safras & Mercado projecting a -3.91% decline in Brazil's sugar production for 2026/27 [4] Group 2: Indian Sugar Production and Exports - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 31 MMT, up +18.8% y/y, while cutting its estimate for sugar used for ethanol production to 3.4 MMT, potentially boosting sugar exports [2] - India's food ministry announced it would allow mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season to alleviate domestic supply glut [3] Group 3: Brazilian Sugar Production Outlook - Conab raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT, indicating a bearish outlook for prices due to record sugar output [5] - Unica reported that Brazil's cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output rose by +1.1% y/y to 39.904 MMT, with the ratio of cane crushed for sugar increasing to 51.12% in 2025/26 from 48.34% in 2024/25 [5]

Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 closed up +0.17 (+1.15%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 closed up +1.50 (+0.35%) on Wednesday, recovering from 1-week lows due to year-end fund short covering [1] - Sugar prices initially fell on Wednesday as the dollar index rose to a 1-week high, impacting most commodity prices including sugar [1] Group 2: Brazil's Sugar Production Outlook - Brazil's sugar production for 2026/27 is expected to decline by -3.91% to 41.8 million metric tons (MMT) from 43.5 MMT in 2025/26, with exports anticipated to fall -11% year-on-year to 30 MMT [2] - Conab raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from a previous forecast of 44.5 MMT, indicating a bearish outlook for prices [5] - Brazil's cumulative 2025-26 Center-South sugar output through November increased by +1.1% year-on-year to 39.904 MMT, with the ratio of cane crushed for sugar rising to 51.12% in 2025/26 from 48.34% in 2024/25 [5] Group 3: India's Sugar Production and Export Potential - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate for India to 31 MMT, an increase of +18.8% year-on-year, while cutting the estimate for sugar used for ethanol production to 3.4 MMT [3] - Indian sugar production from October 1 to December 31 jumped 24% year-on-year to 11.83 MMT [3] - India's government may permit additional sugar exports to alleviate a domestic supply glut, with a quota system introduced for sugar exports in the 2022/23 season [4]

Group 1: Sugar Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 increased by +0.20 (+1.35%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 rose by +2.40 (+0.56%) due to year-end fund short covering [1] - Sugar prices initially fell due to a rise in the dollar index, which impacted most commodity prices [1] Group 2: Brazil's Sugar Production Outlook - Brazil's sugar production for 2026/27 is expected to decline by -3.91% to 41.8 million metric tons (MMT) from 43.5 MMT in 2025/26, with exports projected to fall -11% year-on-year to 30 MMT [2] - Conab raised Brazil's 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT, indicating a bearish outlook for prices [5] - Cumulative sugar output in Brazil's Center-South region increased by +1.1% year-on-year to 39.904 MMT through November 2025/26 [5] Group 3: India's Sugar Production and Export Potential - India's sugar production estimate for 2025/26 was raised to 31 MMT, reflecting an increase of +18.8% year-on-year, with a significant production jump of +24% year-on-year to 11.83 MMT from October 1 to December 31 [3] - The Indian government may permit additional sugar exports to alleviate domestic supply issues, with a quota of 1.5 MMT allowed for the 2025/26 season [4] - The reduction in sugar used for ethanol production in India to 3.4 MMT from 5 MMT may enhance export capabilities [3]

Group 1: Sugar Price Trends - March NY world sugar 11 is down -0.37 (-2.42%) and March London ICE white sugar 5 is down -7.90 (-1.82%), indicating a sharp decline in sugar prices to 1-week lows [1] - The dollar index's rally to a 1-week high is exerting pressure on most commodity prices, including sugar [1] Group 2: Brazil's Sugar Production Outlook - Brazil's sugar production for 2026/27 is expected to fall by -3.91% to 41.8 million metric tons (MMT) from 43.5 MMT in 2025/26, with exports projected to decrease by -11% year-on-year to 30 MMT [2] - Conab raised its Brazil 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT, indicating a bearish outlook for sugar prices [5] - Brazil's cumulative sugar output through November 2025-26 rose by +1.1% year-on-year to 39.904 MMT, with the ratio of cane crushed for sugar increasing to 51.12% in 2025/26 from 48.34% in 2024/25 [5] Group 3: India's Sugar Production and Export Dynamics - India's sugar production estimate for 2025/26 has been raised to 31 MMT from 30 MMT, reflecting an increase of +18.8% year-on-year, which is pressuring sugar prices [4] - The Indian government may permit additional sugar exports to alleviate a domestic supply glut, with a quota system introduced for sugar exports in 2022/23 [3] - The India Sugar Mill Association reported a +28% year-on-year increase in sugar production from October 1 to December 15, reaching 7.83 MMT [4]

Core Viewpoint - Sugar prices are experiencing volatility due to varying production forecasts and export policies from major producing countries like Brazil and India, leading to both bullish and bearish market sentiments. Group 1: Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 (SBH26) decreased by -0.11 (-0.72%) while March London ICE white sugar 5 (SWH26) increased by +3.30 (+0.76) [1] - Sugar prices faced long liquidation pressure after an earlier rally, influenced by forecasts of reduced sugar production in Brazil for the 2026/27 season [2] Group 2: Production Forecasts - Brazil's sugar production is expected to decline by -3.91% to 41.8 million metric tons (MMT) in 2026/27 from 43.5 MMT in 2025/26, with exports projected to fall -11% year-on-year to 30 MMT [2] - India's sugar production estimate for 2025/26 was raised to 31 MMT, reflecting an increase of +18.8% year-on-year, with production from October 1 to December 15 showing a +28% year-on-year increase to 7.83 MMT [4] - Brazil's crop forecasting agency, Conab, raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT, while Unica reported a +1.1% year-on-year increase in cumulative sugar output to 39.904 MMT [5] Group 3: Export Policies - India's government may permit additional sugar exports to alleviate a domestic supply glut, allowing mills to export 1.5 MMT of sugar in the 2025/26 season [3] - The Indian Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) has adjusted its estimate for sugar used for ethanol production down to 3.4 MMT, potentially increasing sugar exports [4] Group 4: Market Outlook - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons in 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, following a deficit in the previous year [6] - Czarnikow has increased its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 8.7 MMT, up +1.2 MMT from earlier estimates [6]

Price Movements - March NY world sugar 11 is up +0.22 (+1.48%), reaching a 2-week high, while March London ICE white sugar 5 is up +4.30 (+1.01%), achieving a 1-week high [1] - The recent rally in sugar prices is attributed to the strengthening of the Brazilian real, which discourages export sales by Brazil's sugar producers [1] Production Increases - Indian sugar production from October to November increased by +43% year-on-year to 4.11 million metric tons (MMT), with 428 sugar mills crushing cane as of November 30, up from 376 a year ago [2] - Brazil's sugar production estimate for 2025/26 has been raised to 45 MMT from 44.5 MMT, with a reported +8.7% year-on-year increase in sugar output in the first half of November [3] Sugar Surplus Forecasts - The International Sugar Organization (ISO) forecasts a sugar surplus of 1.625 million metric tons for 2025-26, driven by increased production in India, Thailand, and Pakistan, contrasting with a previous deficit forecast [4] - Czarnikow has increased its global sugar surplus estimate for 2025/26 to 8.7 MMT, up +1.2 MMT from a previous estimate [4] India’s Production Impact - The India Sugar Mill Association (ISMA) has raised its 2025/26 sugar production estimate for India to 31 MMT, reflecting an increase of +18.8% year-on-year, while also reducing the estimate for sugar used for ethanol production [5]