Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - For Q3 2025, consolidated net income was $401 million, with earnings per share at $3.72 and EBITDA of $625 million, including a $488 million benefit from small refinery exemptions [4][10] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $180 million, with adjusted earnings per share at $0.40, reflecting a significant impact from RFS liability changes and inventory valuation [10][11] - The estimated accrued RFS obligation on the balance sheet was $93 million as of September 30, representing 90 million RINs marked to market at an average price of $1.03 [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the petroleum segment, adjusted EBITDA was $120 million for Q3, driven by increased Group 3 benchmark cracks and higher throughput volumes [10][12] - The ammonia utilization rate in the fertilizer segment was 95%, down from 97% in Q3 2024, with higher nitrogen fertilizer prices compared to the previous year [8][13] - The renewable segment reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $7 million, a decline from an $8 million profit in Q3 2024, primarily due to increased soybean oil prices and the loss of the blenders' tax credit [12][13] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Group 3 benchmark cracks averaged $25.97 per barrel in Q3 2025, up from $19.40 per barrel in the previous year [5][10] - Average RIN prices for Q3 were approximately $6.33 per barrel, nearly 25% of the Group 3 2-1-1 crack [5] - Fertilizer prices remained high due to tight global supplies, with ammonia priced at approximately $700 per ton and urea ammonium nitrate at $360 per ton [23] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans to revert the renewable diesel unit back to hydrocarbon processing during the next scheduled turnaround in December, citing profitability concerns in the renewable space [21][22] - The management remains cautiously optimistic about the refining sector, anticipating stable demand and limited new refining capacity, which could support healthy crack spreads [19][20] - The company is focused on returning the balance sheet to targeted leverage and prioritizing paying down the term loan with excess cash flow [24][25] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that refining market conditions improved in Q3, with steady refined product demand and inventories near five-year averages [18] - The company expressed concerns about the renewable business's reliance on government support, which has been lacking, impacting profitability [21] - Future pipeline projects are expected to positively impact the Mid-Continent region, providing relief for product movement [28] Other Important Information - The company ended Q3 with a consolidated cash balance of $670 million and total liquidity of approximately $830 million [14][15] - Significant cash uses included $43 million for capital and turnaround spending and $20 million for term loan repayment [14] Q&A Session Summary Question: Pipeline projects and shipping commitments - Management acknowledged the potential positive impact of new pipeline projects for Mid-Continent refiners but has not yet decided on shipping commitments [27][28] Question: Renewable diesel plant utilization - The renewable diesel unit will be mothballed, with plans to find new uses for logistical assets, but the pretreatment plant will be shut down [29][30] Question: Renewable diesel conversion costs - The conversion back to hydrocarbon processing is primarily a catalyst change, with low costs associated with mothballing the unit [36][40] Question: RIN obligation strategy - The company plans to monitor RIN obligations closely and is preparing to purchase RINs to meet compliance deadlines [46][47] Question: Dividend restart timeline - Management indicated that predicting the right debt levels for restarting dividends is challenging, but the refining environment appears favorable for future growth [52][54]

Core Insights - Petrobras is set to supply approximately 20% of Brazil's nitrogen fertilizer demand by 2026 as it restarts operations at three local plants [1][3][4] - The Bahia and Sergipe plants will contribute 5% and 7% to the national urea market, respectively, as part of Petrobras' strategic plan [2] - The Parana state unit has already resumed operations and is expected to meet 8% of the national urea demand [3] - A nitrogen fertilizer plant in Mato Grosso do Sul is also being restarted, which will add another 15% to the country's total nitrogen fertilizer supply, bringing Petrobras' total contribution to 35% [4] - These initiatives align with President Lula's strategy to reduce Brazil's reliance on fertilizer imports by encouraging Petrobras to invest in the nitrogen fertilizer sector [5]

Company Performance - Nutrien Ltd.'s shares have increased by 35.9% year to date, outperforming the industry's 34% rise and the S&P 500's approximately 6.8% increase during the same period [1][8]. Market Demand - The company is well-positioned to benefit from growing fertilizer demand, driven by strong global agricultural markets and high crop commodity prices, which are expected to remain elevated through 2025 due to limited inventory levels [3][4]. - Potash demand is projected to rise globally due to better farm economics, increased affordability, and low stock levels, while the phosphate market is experiencing growth from strong global demand and low inventories [4]. - Nitrogen fertilizer demand remains solid in major markets such as North America, India, and Brazil, with a rebound in industrial nitrogen use contributing to growth [4]. Strategic Initiatives - Nutrien is expected to benefit from its acquisition strategy and the growing adoption of its digital platform, with targeted acquisitions in Brazil and plans for growth investments in 2025 [5]. - The company is focused on enhancing efficiency and cutting costs, with initiatives projected to generate nearly $200 million in savings by 2025 [6][8]. Earnings Estimates - Nutrien's earnings estimates have improved, with the Zacks Consensus Estimate for 2025 earnings increasing by 6.2% and estimates for the second quarter raised by 3% [9].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company reported a consolidated net loss of $105 million for Q1 2025, with a loss per share of $1.22 and an EBITDA loss of $61 million [6][15] - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $24 million, with an adjusted loss per share of $0.58 [15] - The negative mark to market impact on outstanding RFS obligations was $112 million, while there was a favorable inventory valuation impact of $24 million [15] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the Petroleum segment, total throughput was approximately 125,000 barrels per day, with a light product yield of 95% [6] - Adjusted EBITDA for the Petroleum segment was a loss of $30 million, driven by reduced throughput volumes and lower product cracks [15] - The Renewables segment achieved an adjusted EBITDA of $3 million, an improvement from a negative $5 million in the prior year [15] - The Fertilizer segment reported an adjusted EBITDA of $53 million, driven by higher UAN sales volumes and ammonia sales prices [15] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - Group 3 2-1-1 benchmark cracks averaged $17.65 per barrel in Q1 2025, down from $19.55 per barrel in the same period last year [8] - Average RIN prices were approximately $0.84, an increase of over 25% from the previous year [8] - Nitrogen fertilizer prices were higher for ammonia and slightly lower for UAN compared to Q1 2024 [13] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company plans no additional turnarounds in the Refining segment for 2025 and 2026, with the next planned turnaround at Wynnewood scheduled for 2027 [8] - The company is focusing on increasing distillate yield and jet fuel production, with projects underway to enhance capacity [24] - The company aims to reduce debt and restore balance sheet leverage ratios while looking for ways to improve capture and reduce costs [28] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management noted that refining market conditions began to improve due to a heavy spring maintenance season and refinery closures [20] - The company expressed optimism about the demand for refined products, despite potential recession concerns [31] - Management highlighted the importance of government support for renewable businesses and the need for clarity on credits before making further investments [60] Other Important Information - The company ended Q1 2025 with a consolidated cash balance of $695 million and total liquidity of approximately $894 million [18] - Significant cash uses included $94 million for capital and turnaround spending and $113 million for working capital [18] Q&A Session Summary Question: Understanding refining macro and demand - Management indicated that days of supply have shrunk, suggesting a correction in the supply-demand balance, with expectations for improved gasoline demand in the summer [31] Question: RVO and SRE implications - Management believes decoupling D4 and D6 is important and criticized the government's handling of the RFS, emphasizing the need for lower RIN prices to benefit consumers [34][36] Question: Renewable diesel EBITDA and future expectations - Management noted that RIN prices and feedstock costs are critical for maintaining positive EBITDA in the renewable segment, with ongoing uncertainty regarding the PTC [40][41] Question: Industry consolidation and economies of scale - Management agreed that economies of scale are essential for survival and acknowledged potential for further consolidation in the refining sector [45] Question: Update on Coffeyville turnaround - Management acknowledged challenges during the Coffeyville turnaround but expressed confidence in recovering strong margins moving forward [52] Question: Jet fuel expansion and customer contracts - Management is optimistic about securing contracts with major airlines as existing contracts come up for renewal [57] Question: Assurance for renewable investments - Management emphasized the need for stable government support and clarity on credits before committing to new renewable projects [60]