Core Viewpoint - Rigetti Computing is preparing to release its third-quarter 2025 results, with expectations of a loss per share of 5 cents and revenues of $2.39 million, indicating a year-over-year growth of 37.5% in earnings but only a modest revenue growth of 0.4% [2][3]. Financial Performance - The consensus estimate for 2025 revenues is $8.7 million, reflecting a decline of 19.7% year over year, while the loss per share is expected to be 9 cents, suggesting a year-over-year growth of 75% [4]. - Rigetti has had mixed performance in the past four quarters, surpassing the consensus estimate once, missing once, and meeting expectations twice, resulting in an average earnings surprise of negative 10.8% [4]. Earnings Analysis - Rigetti has an Earnings ESP of 0.00%, indicating no expected earnings surprise for the upcoming report [5]. - The company currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting a neutral outlook [6]. Market and Operational Factors - The third-quarter performance is likely to be influenced by uncertainties in U.S. public-sector funding, particularly due to the expiration of the National Quantum Initiative [7]. - Rigetti's rollout of the Cepheus-1-36Q quantum system is expected to provide early benefits, with strong technical gains and increased experimentation among customers [8]. Cash Position and Valuation - Rigetti has over $570 million in cash and no debt, positioning it well for continued system development and stable margin execution [9]. - Year-to-date, Rigetti's shares have gained 125.1%, outperforming the broader Internet Software industry, which advanced 10.2% [12]. Long-Term Strategy - Rigetti aims to deliver a 100+ qubit chiplet-based system with approximately 99.5% fidelity by the end of 2025, with a long-term goal of achieving a 1,000-qubit system [13]. - The company is focusing on building an ecosystem through partnerships, such as the collaboration with Quanta Computer Inc., which includes significant financial commitments from both parties [17][18]. Commercial Developments - Recent orders for the Novera QPU systems indicate growing demand for quantum systems beyond government labs, with potential for broader enterprise adoption in the future [15][16]. - The integration of Novera with NVIDIA's DGX Quantum platform highlights Rigetti's efforts in hybrid quantum-classical workflows [18]. Investment Outlook - The upcoming third-quarter results are expected to reflect steady progress rather than a major financial turning point, supporting a hold view for investors [19]. - While Rigetti's balance sheet allows for continued investment, visibility into larger commercial demand remains limited, suggesting a cautious approach for prospective investors [21].

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is expected to release its third-quarter 2025 results on November 10, with a consensus estimate for loss per share at 5 cents and revenues at $2.39 million, indicating a year-over-year growth of 37.5% in earnings but only a modest revenue growth of 0.4% [1][2] Financial Performance - The consensus for 2025 revenues is $8.7 million, reflecting a decline of 19.7% year over year, while the loss per share is estimated at 9 cents, suggesting a year-over-year growth of 75% [2] - RGTI has had mixed performance in the past four quarters, surpassing estimates once, missing once, and meeting expectations twice, resulting in an average earnings surprise of negative 10.8% [2] Earnings Estimates - The earnings estimates for the upcoming quarters remain stable, with the loss per share projected at -0.05 for Q1, -0.04 for Q2, -0.09 for F1, and -0.17 for F2 [3] Market Position and Valuation - RGTI currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), with an Earnings ESP of 0.00%, indicating lower chances of beating estimates [5][6] - Year-to-date, RGTI shares have gained 125.1%, outperforming the broader Internet Software industry, which advanced 10.2% [11] Strategic Developments - The third-quarter results are likely to be influenced by U.S. public-sector funding uncertainties, particularly due to the expiration of the National Quantum Initiative [7] - Rigetti's rollout of the Cepheus-1-36Q, the largest multichip quantum system, is expected to provide early benefits, with strong technical gains and access through Rigetti QCS and Microsoft Azure [8][9] - The company has over $570 million in cash and no debt, positioning it well for continued system development [9] Long-Term Vision - Rigetti aims to deliver a 100+ qubit chiplet-based system with approximately 99.5% two-qubit gate fidelity by the end of 2025, with a long-term goal of achieving a 1,000-qubit system [15] - Recent orders for Novera QPU systems indicate growing demand for quantum systems beyond government labs, suggesting potential for broader enterprise adoption [16][17] Partnerships and Collaborations - A strategic collaboration with Quanta Computer Inc. involves over $100 million in commitments from both partners, supporting manufacturing scale and system commercialization [18] - Integration with NVIDIA's DGX Quantum platform highlights Rigetti's focus on hybrid quantum-classical workflows, enhancing its ecosystem [18] Future Outlook - The upcoming third-quarter results are expected to reflect steady progress on Rigetti's chiplet-based roadmap, with continued focus on fidelity metrics and system deliveries rather than just near-term revenues [19][21] - While the balance sheet provides a cushion for ongoing investments, visibility into larger commercial demand remains limited, suggesting a cautious approach for prospective investors [21]

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing has entered a collaboration with Montana State University (MSU) to enhance quantum computing research and innovation [2][5] - The opening of QCORE, MSU's new research center, features a 9-qubit Novera QPU, marking MSU as the first academic institution with an on-premises Rigetti quantum computer [2][4] - The partnership aims to focus on various initiatives, including research on quantum hardware, workforce development, and co-development of quantum technologies [5][6] Company Overview - Rigetti is recognized as a pioneer in full-stack quantum computing, having operated quantum computers over the cloud since 2017 [7] - The company began selling on-premises quantum computing systems in 2021, with qubit counts ranging from 24 to 84 [7] - Rigetti's Novera QPU, introduced in 2023, is designed for high-performance integration with existing systems and supports a broader R&D community [7] Strategic Initiatives - The collaboration with MSU will include strategic and technical support for QCORE, emphasizing the importance of public-private partnerships in advancing quantum technologies [5][6] - Rigetti's research efforts will also involve partnerships with the Air Force Research Lab to develop customized quantum systems for networking hardware [6] - The Novera QPU is manufactured at Rigetti's Fab-1, the first dedicated quantum device manufacturing facility in the industry [6][7]

Company Overview - Rigetti Computing is a prominent player in the quantum computing sector, focusing solely on making quantum computing commercially viable, which poses a high-risk, high-reward investment scenario [2][12] - The current stock price of Rigetti is approximately $15 per share, with potential to rise to $25 per share by the end of 2025, representing a 66% gain for investors [3][5] Market Potential - The annual market opportunity for quantum computing is expected to be between $1 billion and $2 billion before 2030, primarily driven by research institutions [6] - Post-2030, the market opportunity is projected to expand significantly to between $15 billion and $30 billion annually, indicating substantial growth potential for Rigetti [6] Competitive Landscape - Rigetti faces intense competition from numerous startups and established tech companies with significant resources dedicated to quantum computing research [8][10] - The company utilizes superconducting technology, which is popular for its fast processing speeds but requires cooling to near absolute zero, presenting cost challenges [9][10] Investment Considerations - The speculative nature of Rigetti's stock means that any price movement is largely driven by market sentiment and potential announcements, making it a risky investment [11] - Investors are advised to assess their risk tolerance and consider a long-term holding strategy, potentially until 2030, to capitalize on Rigetti's growth prospects [12]

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing is a notable quantum computing start-up with stock trading around $11 per share, previously reaching $20 early in the year, raising questions about its potential to return to that price by the end of 2025 [1] Company Overview - Rigetti Computing focuses on providing a full-stack quantum computing solution, including quantum processing units (QPUs) and necessary software, positioning itself as a potential leader in the quantum computing arms race [3] - The company employs a superconducting approach to quantum computing, cooling particles to nearly absolute zero to enhance measurement accuracy, indicating that its technology is currently available [7] Industry Challenges - The primary challenge in quantum computing is achieving computing accuracy, which is a common issue across all manufacturers [4] - Quantum computing utilizes qubits, which can exist in a superposition of states, making them more powerful than traditional bits, but this also introduces potential for errors in calculations [5][6] Product Offering - Rigetti's Novera QPU, a 9-qubit unit, is priced starting at $900,000 and boasts a 99.4% 2-qubit gate fidelity, showcasing the company's advancements in quantum technology [9] - Despite having a product available, Rigetti's sales remain low, with Q1 revenue reported at $1.5 million, as institutions are currently seeking government grants to fund purchases [10] Market Dynamics - A significant order from a company interested in deploying quantum technology could lead to a surge in Rigetti's stock price, potentially driving it toward $20 per share [11] - The stock's performance is largely influenced by market sentiment and news within the quantum computing sector, making it more speculative than a solid investment [12]

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing has completed sales of $350 million in gross proceeds from its common stock through an at-the-market equity offering program, bringing its total cash, cash equivalents, and available-for-sale investments to approximately $575 million with no debt [1] - The company plans to utilize the proceeds primarily for working capital, capital expenditures, and general corporate purposes, with potential future investments in strategic collaborations, acquisitions, or partnerships [1] Company Overview - Rigetti Computing is a pioneer in full-stack quantum computing, operating quantum computers over the cloud since 2017 and serving a diverse clientele including global enterprises, government, and research institutions through its Rigetti Quantum Cloud Services platform [2] - The company began selling on-premises quantum computing systems in 2021, featuring qubit counts ranging from 24 to 84, and introduced its 9-qubit Novera QPU in 2023 to support the R&D community [2] - Rigetti has developed the industry's first multi-chip quantum processor for scalable quantum computing systems and manufactures its chips in-house at Fab-1, the first dedicated and integrated quantum device manufacturing facility [2]

Core Viewpoint - Rigetti Computing and CoreWeave are identified as high-risk, high-reward investment opportunities in the quantum computing and AI sectors respectively [1][17] Rigetti Computing - Rigetti's stock has increased by over 970% in the past 12 months, indicating significant market interest [2] - The company offers quantum processing units (QPUs), full quantum systems, and a cloud-based platform for quantum applications, positioning itself as a comprehensive provider in the quantum computing space [4] - Rigetti's revenue is projected to grow at a compound annual rate of 52% from $10.8 million in 2024 to $37.7 million in 2027, despite a decline in revenue of 8% in 2023 and 10% in 2024 [9][10] - The company has a market cap of $3.3 billion and trades at 87 times its estimated sales for 2027, raising concerns about its high valuation [11] - Major clients include the Superconducting Quantum Materials and Systems Center and the Air Force Research Lab, with recent product launches including a 9-qubit Novera QPU and an 84-qubit Ankaa 3 quantum system [8] CoreWeave - CoreWeave's stock has surged approximately 250% since its IPO in March, reflecting strong growth in the AI sector [2] - The company transitioned from Ethereum mining to AI tasks, significantly expanding its infrastructure with a $100 million purchase of Nvidia's H100 GPUs [12] - CoreWeave's revenue is expected to grow at a compound annual rate of 105% from $1.92 billion in 2024 to $16.55 billion in 2027, despite a widening net loss from $31 million in 2022 to $863 million in 2024 [14][15] - With a market cap of $67.3 billion, CoreWeave trades at 4 times its estimated sales for 2027, suggesting a more reasonable valuation compared to Rigetti [16] Comparative Analysis - While Rigetti has potential in the expanding quantum computing market, its business remains unstable and is trading at inflated valuations, making it a riskier investment [17] - CoreWeave, on the other hand, is experiencing faster growth and has more reasonable valuations, positioning it as a more attractive investment option in the current market [17]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues in Q1 2025 were $1,500,000, down from $3,100,000 in Q1 2024, indicating a significant decline [12] - Gross margins decreased to 30% in Q1 2025 from 49% in Q1 2024, primarily due to lower margins from a contract with the UK's NQCC [12] - Total operating expenses (OpEx) increased to $22,100,000 in Q1 2025 from $18,100,000 in the same period last year, driven by salary increases and higher stock compensation expenses [13] - The operating loss for Q1 2025 was $21,600,000, compared to $16,600,000 in the prior year [13] - The company recorded a net income of $42,600,000 in Q1 2025, a turnaround from a net loss of $20,800,000 in Q1 2024, largely due to favorable non-cash changes in derivative warrant and earn-out liabilities [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is focusing on advancing its utility-scale quantum computer concept through collaborations and government contracts, which are critical for future sales [4][5] - The NQCC contract is noted for having lower gross margins, but it is strategically important for the company to establish itself in the UK quantum ecosystem [50] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is actively participating in DARPA's quantum benchmarking initiative, which is crucial for advancing utility-scale quantum computing [4][27] - The interest in quantum computing remains primarily in R&D, with significant government contracts driving current sales, but commercial sales are expected to be several years away [39] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to scale up qubit counts using a chiplet approach, with plans to demonstrate over 100 qubits by the end of 2025 [16][18] - The focus is on achieving higher fidelity and faster gate speeds as part of the roadmap to utility-scale quantum computing [26][56] - The partnership with Quanta Computer is strategic, with a commitment of $250,000,000 over five years to support non-GPU hardware development [90] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism regarding the NQI reauthorization bill, which is expected to provide funding for quantum computing initiatives, although delays are anticipated [20][46] - The company is still in the R&D phase of quantum computing, with expectations that significant commercial sales will not materialize for another three to five years [39][41] Other Important Information - The company has received multiple awards to advance its quantum computing technologies, including a $5,480,000 grant for chip fabrication technology development [5][67] - The integration of optical signaling is seen as a critical advancement for scaling quantum systems, with expectations for implementation in the next few years [76][80] Q&A Session Summary Question: Progress on chip tiling and timelines - Management confirmed confidence in the chiplet approach to achieve 36 qubits by mid-year and over 100 by the end of 2025, with promising data supporting this strategy [16][17] Question: Updates on the NQI Reauthorization Act - Management indicated bipartisan support for the NQI reauthorization, but noted that it has not yet passed, with funding expected to take additional time to flow after approval [20][46] Question: Details on the DARPA contract - The DARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative is critical for achieving utility-scale quantum computing, with specific milestones related to qubit counts and fidelity required to progress to the next phase [25][26] Question: Customer interest in quantum processors - Management noted that while interest exists, the current environment is primarily R&D-focused, with significant sales unlikely until quantum advantage is achieved [39][41] Question: Optical signaling and its importance - Management highlighted the significance of optical signaling for future scalability, with a transition expected from coax to fiber optic cables in the coming years [76][80] Question: Revenue recognition from NQCC and Air Force contracts - Revenue from the NQCC opportunity is expected to be recognized over the next year, while the Air Force contract is projected to contribute approximately $1,000,000 over the upcoming year [81][82] Question: Future milestones with Quanta Computer - The partnership with Quanta is expected to evolve, with Quanta taking on more R&D responsibilities for control systems and hardware components over the next year [90][93]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues in Q1 2025 were $1,500,000, down from $3,100,000 in Q1 2024, indicating a significant decline [12] - Gross margins decreased to 30% in Q1 2025 from 49% in Q1 2024, primarily due to lower margin revenues from a contract with the UK's NQCC [12] - Total operating expenses (OpEx) increased to $22,100,000 in Q1 2025 from $18,100,000 in the same period last year, driven by salary increases, new hires, and higher stock compensation expenses [13] - The operating loss for Q1 2025 was $21,600,000, compared to $16,600,000 in the prior year [13] - The company recorded a net income of $42,600,000 in Q1 2025, a turnaround from a net loss of $20,800,000 in Q1 2024, largely due to favorable non-cash changes in derivative warrant and earn-out liabilities [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is focusing on advancing its utility scale quantum computer concept, collaborating with Riverlane on quantum error correction technology [4][5] - The consortium for the AFOSR award aims to develop chip fabrication technology, with a total award of $5,480,000 [5] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is actively participating in DARPA's quantum benchmarking initiative, which is critical for advancing utility scale quantum computing [4][28] - The interest in quantum computing remains primarily in R&D, with significant government contracts driving current sales [38][41] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is pursuing a chiplet approach to scale qubit counts, aiming for 36 qubits by mid-2025 and over 100 qubits by the end of 2025 [16][18] - The strategy includes enhancing quantum error correction capabilities and integrating digital chip-based technology with existing systems [8][9] - The partnership with Quanta Computer is strategic, focusing on non-GPU hardware components, which will allow the company to concentrate on QPU development [91][94] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism regarding the NQI reauthorization bill, which is expected to pass with bipartisan support, although funding may take additional time to materialize [21][48] - The company anticipates that achieving quantum advantage will take at least three to five years, with current efforts focused on R&D and technology milestones [38][42] Other Important Information - The company has closed a $35,000,000 investment from Quanta Computer, which strengthens their strategic collaboration [10][90] - The company is exploring optical signaling as a future technology to improve scalability and reduce thermal load in quantum systems [78][81] Q&A Session Summary Question: Progress on chip tiling and timelines - Management confirmed confidence in the chiplet approach to achieve 36 qubits by mid-2025 and over 100 by the end of 2025, with promising data supporting this strategy [16][17] Question: Updates on the DARPA contract - The DARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative is crucial for utility scale quantum computing, with specific milestones related to qubit count and fidelity required to progress to the next phase [26][28] Question: Revenue from DARPA phases - Phase A of the DARPA project includes a $1,000,000 award, with expectations for increased funding in subsequent phases [34] Question: Customer interest in quantum processors - Current interest remains in R&D, with significant government funding impacting the conversion of interest into orders [40][41] Question: Optical signaling and its roadmap - Optical signaling is a key element for future scalability, with expectations to transition from coax to fiber optic cables in the next three to four years [78][81] Question: NQCC revenue recognition timeframe - Revenue from the NQCC opportunity is expected to be recognized over the next year, with a similar timeline for the Air Force contract [84]

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenues in Q1 2025 were $1,500,000, down from $3,100,000 in Q1 2024, indicating a significant decline [12] - Gross margins decreased to 30% in Q1 2025 from 49% in Q1 2024, primarily due to lower margins from a contract with the UK's NQCC [12] - Total operating expenses (OpEx) increased to $22,100,000 in Q1 2025 from $18,100,000 in the same period last year, driven by salary increases, new hires, and higher stock compensation expenses [13] - The operating loss for Q1 2025 was $21,600,000, compared to $16,600,000 in the prior year [13] - The company recorded a net income of $42,600,000 in Q1 2025, a turnaround from a net loss of $20,800,000 in the previous year, largely due to favorable non-cash changes in derivative warrant and earn-out liabilities [14] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company is focusing on advancing its utility scale quantum computer concept through collaborations and government contracts, which are critical for future sales [4][5] - The NQCC contract is noted for its lower gross margin profile, impacting overall profitability [12] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has been awarded multiple contracts, including a $1,000,000 award from DARPA for the Quantum Benchmarking Initiative, which is seen as strategically important despite its relatively small monetary value [34] - Interest in quantum computing remains primarily in R&D, with significant reliance on government contracts and academic research funding [41] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to demonstrate a chiplet approach to scale qubit counts, targeting over 100 qubits by the end of 2025 [16][19] - The strategy includes collaborations with various institutions to enhance quantum error correction capabilities and improve chip fabrication technology [5][6] - The company is optimistic about the NQI reauthorization, which is expected to provide funding for quantum computing initiatives, although delays in passing the bill are noted [22][50] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the chiplet approach as a means to scale up qubit counts, emphasizing its importance for the entire industry [19] - The company is optimistic about the future of quantum computing, although it acknowledges that achieving quantum advantage is still several years away [39] - Management highlighted the strategic importance of government contracts and collaborations in driving future growth [41][42] Other Important Information - The company has closed a $35,000,000 investment from Quanta Computer, which is expected to strengthen their partnership and reduce R&D costs in non-QPU hardware areas [10][96] - The company is exploring optical signaling as a future technology to improve scalability and reduce thermal load in quantum computing systems [80][84] Q&A Session Summary Question: Progress on chip tiling to reach 36 qubits - Management confirmed that the chiplet approach is critical for scaling qubit counts and expressed confidence in achieving the target by mid-year [16][19] Question: Updates on NQI Reauthorization Act - Management noted bipartisan support for the NQI reauthorization but indicated that it has not yet passed, with funding expected to take additional time to flow [21][50] Question: Details on the DARPA contract - The DARPA Quantum Benchmarking Initiative is crucial for developing utility scale quantum computing, with specific milestones related to qubit fidelity and gate speed [27][90] Question: Customer interest in acquiring processors - Management stated that interest remains high, but funding issues are currently hindering conversion to orders [41][42] Question: Timeframe for the 36 qubit QPU upgrade - Management indicated that the upgrade could occur in the second half of the year, depending on the demonstration of the chiplet approach [51][54] Question: Importance of optical signaling - Management emphasized the significance of optical signaling for future scalability and the transition from coax to fiber optic cables [80][84] Question: Revenue recognition from NQCC and Air Force contracts - Management expects revenue from the NQCC contract to be recognized over the next year, with the Air Force contract contributing approximately $1,000,000 over its three-year term [87]