Core Viewpoint - Oracle's Investor Day revealed significant positive developments, including large new contracts, an upward revision of revenue growth targets for fiscal year 2030, and a strong compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for earnings per share, leading Morgan Stanley to adopt a cautiously optimistic stance. However, several core issues remain unanswered, contributing to the market's skepticism [2][3]. Financial Forward Targets - Oracle raised its fiscal year 2030 revenue target from approximately $200 billion to about $225 billion, reflecting a CAGR of 31% from fiscal years 2025 to 2030. The non-GAAP earnings per share target was set at $21, with a CAGR of about 28%. For fiscal year 2027, the revenue target is $85 billion, exceeding market expectations by approximately 3.4%, while fiscal year 2028 is set at $130 billion, surpassing expectations by about 5.9%. The advantages expand to 10.8% and 13.4% for fiscal years 2029 and 2030, respectively. However, the earnings per share targets for fiscal years 2027 and 2028 are more aligned with market expectations, raising concerns about the company's near-term execution capabilities [4]. OCI Cloud Business as Growth Engine - The upward revision in targets is primarily driven by more aggressive expectations for Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI). The revenue target for OCI remains at $18 billion for fiscal year 2026, but the fiscal year 2027 target was raised from $32 billion to $34 billion, and the fiscal year 2028 target was increased from $73 billion to $77 billion. The fiscal year 2029 target rose from $114 billion to $129 billion, and the fiscal year 2030 target jumped from $144 billion to $166 billion, indicating a CAGR of 75%. This growth is supported by strong order momentum, with a backlog of $455 billion and new contracts worth approximately $65 billion signed in the past 30 days [6]. AI Infrastructure Profitability Clarified - Concerns regarding the gross margin of Oracle's AI infrastructure business have been addressed, with the company stating that the expected gross margin for AI IaaS is in the range of 30-40%. A specific case study illustrated a 6-year, 1GW contract valued at $60 billion, with a gross margin of 35%, indicating that normalized gross margins could trend towards the higher end of the 30-40% range. Additionally, non-AI business segments showed strong growth, with distributed cloud growing 77% year-over-year and enterprise business achieving gross margins of 65-80% [8][9]. Key Issues Remain Unanswered - Despite providing more business details, several core questions remain unresolved, contributing to the market's muted response. The company has not provided clear gross margin and operating profit margin framework targets. There is a lack of transparency regarding capital expenditure plans, which complicates investor assessments of future cash flows. Furthermore, the composition of the $500 billion RPO balance remains unclear, including customer mix and contract duration. The specific growth contributions from cloud application businesses were also not clearly articulated [10][11].

本文作者：李佳 来源：硬AI 近日，甲骨文投资者日释放数项重磅消息：包括一系列大订单，上调了本就很高的2030财年营收收入增 长目标以及每股收益复合年增长率。然而，盘后股价反应平淡，甲骨文并未能让市场完全买账。 摩根士丹利公布的研报表明，对于甲骨文持谨慎乐观的态度。虽然其业务增长势头强劲，但公司未明确 整体利润率目标和巨额资本支出计划，潜在不确定性是主要担忧。 财务远期目标大幅上调，但近期增长不及预期 报告指出，甲骨文在投资者日上调的业绩预期主要体现在远期目标上。公司将2030财年营收目标从此前 的约2000亿美元大幅上调至约2250亿美元，年复合增长率达31%（2025-2030财年），同时将非GAAP每 股收益目标定为21美元，年复合增长率约28%。 从具体财年来看，2027财年营收目标为850亿美元，较市场预期高出约3.4%；2028财年为1300亿美元， 领先约5.9%；但到2029和2030财年，优势扩大至10.8%和13.4%。更关键的是，在每股收益层面，2027 财年目标8美元基本符合市场预期，2028财年的10.65美元甚至略低于市场预期的11.21美元（低 5.0%），只有到2029和203 ...